Differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion

A global existence and uniqueness result of the solution for multidimensional, time dependent, stochastic differential equations driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H> is proved. It is shown, also, that the solution has finite moments. The result is based on a deterministic existence and uniqueness theorem whose proof uses a contraction principle and a priori estimates.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Microbiologia do solo no ensino médio de Lavras, MG

Os microrganismos realizam processos imprescindíveis para a sustentabilidade dos ecossistemas e para a vida no planeta; apesar disso, a sociedade de modo geral ignora esse papel e os considera apenas do ponto de vista de patógenos. Este trabalho foi realizado com os objetivos de analisar o conteúdo sobre os microrganismos do solo nos livros didáticos de Biologia adotados nas escolas de ensino médio de Lavras, MG; caracterizar estudantes e professores de três escolas desta cidade; e avaliar a percepção sobre Microbiologia do Solo de 334 estudantes do ensino médio dessas escolas após a apresentação do assunto em diversos formatos atrativos (palestras, workshops e aulas práticas). A coleta de dados, a priori e posteriori, foi realizada por questionários; avaliou-se ainda a viabilidade de trabalhar esse conteúdo no ensino médio. Apesar da importância dos microrganismos do solo, os materiais didáticos para o ensino de Biologia no ensino médio os abordam superficialmente e não destacam sua relevância nos contextos agrícola e ambiental. Após apresentação do assunto, houve diferenças significativas na percepção por estudantes das escolas tanto públicas como privadas. Concluiu-se ser possível ensinar e melhorar esse conteúdo da disciplina de Biologia por meio de recursos acessíveis e constatou-se a necessidade de levar os avanços científicos conhecidos na universidade para atualizar o ensino médio.

Variabilidade espacial de atributos físicos de um latossolo vermelho-amarelo, sob lavoura cafeeira

O conhecimento da variabilidade dos atributos físicos do solo é importante para o monitoramento da qualidade do solo, pois eles estão diretamente relacionados com a sustentabilidade da produção agrícola. Este estudo teve como objetivos avaliar e identificar as estruturas de dependência espacial, por meio da construção de semivariogramas, num Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo (LVA), sob lavoura cafeeira; caracterizar as distribuições espaciais dos atributos físicos pela krigagem ordinária; e identificar a camada com maior impedimento físico. O experimento foi conduzido num LVA textura muito argilosa na Fazenda da Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária de Minas Gerais, em Patrocínio, MG. A amostragem foi realizada em trincheiras confeccionadas nas intersecções de uma malha retangular de 40 x 150 m, perfazendo um total de 28 pontos, de onde foram coletadas amostras indeformadas em anéis metálicos de 2,54 cm de altura e 6,30 cm de diâmetro, com auxílio do amostrador tipo Uhland. Cada trincheira possuía três degraus de 2,0 x 1,5 m de superfície, nas camadas de 0,00; 0,10; e 0,25 m, onde se coletaram sete amostras indeformadas em cada degrau, dispostas em forma matricial, totalizando 588 amostras. Os atributos físicos do solo apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial em todas as camadas, exceto a porosidade total. A técnica de krigagem ordinária demonstrou ser alternativa viável para a estimativa de dados em pontos não amostrados na área experimental. A camada de 0,00-0,03 m apresentou maior impedimento físico ao crescimento de raízes, por apresentar maior densidade e menor macroporosidade do solo.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Wheat yield and physical properties of a brown latosol under no-tillage in south-central Paraná

Soil management influences the chemical and physical properties of soil. Chemical conditions have been thoroughly studied, while the role of soil physical conditions regarding crop yield has been neglected. This study aimed to analyze the wheat yield and its relationship with physical properties of an Oxisol under no-tillage (NT). The study was carried out between 2010 and 2011, in Reserva do Iguaçu, State of Paraná, Brazil, on the Campo Bonito farm, after 25 years of NT management. Based on harvest maps of barley (2006), wheat (2007) and maize (2009) of a plot (150 ha), zones with higher and lower yield potential (Z1 and Z2, respectively) were identified. Sampling grids with 16 units (50 x 50 m) and three sampling points per unit were established. The wheat grain yield (GY) and water infiltration capacity (WIC) were evaluated in 2010. Soil samples with disturbed and undisturbed structure were collected from the 0.00-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m layers. The former were used to determine soil organic carbon (Corg) levels and the latter to determine soil bulk density (BD), total porosity (TP), macroporosity (Mac), and microporosity (Mic). Soil penetration resistance (PR) and water content (SWC) were also evaluated. The wheat GY of the whole plot was close to the regional average and the yield between the zones differed significantly, i.e. 22 % higher in Z1 than in Z2. No significant variation in Mic was observed between zones, but Z1 had higher Corg levels, SWC, TP and Mac and lower BD than Z2 in both soil layers, as well as a lower PR than Z2 in the 0.00-0.10 m layer. Therefore, soil physical conditions were more restrictive in Z2, in agreement with wheat yield and zone yield potential defined a priori, based on the harvest maps. Soil WIC in Z1 was significantly higher (30 %) than in Z2, in agreement with the results of TP and Mac which were also higher in Z1 in both soil layers. The correlation analysis of data of the two layers showed a positive relationship between wheat GY and the soil properties TP, SWC and WIC.

La défense du paradis fiscal suisse avant la Seconde Guerre mondiale : une histoire internationale : analyse de la politique helvétique au sein des négociations sur la double imposition et l'évasion fiscale durant l'entre-deux-guerres

Cette thèse analyse la défense du paradis fiscal suisse dans les négociations internationales de l'entre-deux-guerres. Pour ce faire, elle s'appuie sur un très large panel de sources inédites, tirées des archives publiques suisses, britanniques, françaises, allemandes et belges, ainsi que sur une série d'archives du monde économique et d'organisations internationales. Ce travail tente, sur cette base, de retracer l'évolution des pourparlers fiscaux et d'identifier comment les dirigeants suisses sont parvenus à écarter en leur sein les premières pressions internationales qui surviennent après la Grande Guerre à l'encontre des pratiques fiscales helvétiques. Sur fond de fuites massives d'avoirs européens en direction du refuge suisse, ces démarches étrangères à l'encontre du secret bancaire sont menées aussi bien au niveau multilatéral, au sein des débats fiscaux de la Société des Nations, que sur le plan bilatéral, à l'intérieur des négociations interétatiques pour la conclusion de conventions de double imposition et d'assistance fiscale. Pourtant, les tentatives de la part des gouvernements européens d'amorcer une coopération contre l'évasion fiscale avec leur homologue suisse échouent constamment durant l'entre-deux-guerres : non seulement aucune mesure de collaboration internationale n'est adoptée par la Confédération, mais les dirigeants helvétiques parviennent encore à obtenir dans les négociations des avantages fiscaux pour les capitaux qui sont exportés depuis la Suisse ou qui transitent par son entremise. En clair, bien loin d'être amoindrie, la compétitivité fiscale du centre économique suisse sort renforcée des discussions internationales de l'entre-deux-guerres. La thèse avance à la fois des facteurs endogènes et exogènes à la politique suisse pour expliquer cette réussite a priori surprenante dans un contexte de crise financière et monétaire aiguë. A l'intérieur de la Confédération, la grande cohésion des élites suisses facilite la défense extérieure de la compétitivité fiscale. En raison de l'anémie de l'administration fiscale fédérale, du conservatisme du gouvernement ou encore de l'interpénétration du patronat industriel et bancaire helvétique, les décideurs s'accordent presque unanimement sur le primat à une protection rigoureuse du secret bancaire. En outre, corollaire de l'afflux de capitaux en Suisse, la place financière helvétique dispose de différentes armes économiques qu'elle peut faire valoir pour défendre ses intérêts face aux gouvernements étrangers. Mais c'est surtout la conjonction de trois facteurs exogènes au contexte suisse qui a favorisé la position helvétique au sein des négociations fiscales internationales. Premièrement, après la guerre, le climat anti-fiscal qui prédomine au sein d'une large frange des élites occidentales incite les gouvernements étrangers à faire preuve d'une grande tolérance à l'égard du havre fiscal suisse. Deuxièmement, en raison de leur sous-développement, les administrations fiscales européennes n'ont pas un pouvoir suffisant pour contrecarrer la politique suisse. Troisièmement, les milieux industriels et financiers étrangers tendent à appuyer les stratégies de défense du paradis fiscal suisse, soit parce qu'ils usent eux-mêmes de ses services, soit parce que, avec la pression à la baisse qu'il engendre sur les systèmes fiscaux des autres pays, l'îlot libéral helvétique participe au démantèlement de la fiscalité progressive que ces milieux appellent de leur voeu.

Tuning clustering in random networks with arbitrary degree distributions

We present a generator of random networks where both the degree-dependent clustering coefficient and the degree distribution are tunable. Following the same philosophy as in the configuration model, the degree distribution and the clustering coefficient for each class of nodes of degree k are fixed ad hoc and a priori. The algorithm generates corresponding topologies by applying first a closure of triangles and second the classical closure of remaining free stubs. The procedure unveils an universal relation among clustering and degree-degree correlations for all networks, where the level of assortativity establishes an upper limit to the level of clustering. Maximum assortativity ensures no restriction on the decay of the clustering coefficient whereas disassortativity sets a stronger constraint on its behavior. Correlation measures in real networks are seen to observe this structural bound.

Class of correlated random networks with hidden variables

We study a class of models of correlated random networks in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices. We find analytical expressions for the main topological properties of these models as a function of the distribution of hidden variables and the probability of connecting vertices. The expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations in a particular example. The general model is extended to describe a practical algorithm to generate random networks with an a priori specified correlation structure. We also present an extension of the class, to map nonequilibrium growing networks to networks with hidden variables that represent the time at which each vertex was introduced in the system.

A dialética micro/macro na sociologia da educação

Neste ensaio procuro desenvolver uma argumentação a favor da superação dos monismos metodológicos no campo da pesquisa em sociologia da educação. Com base no que Jeffrey Alexander (1987) denominou o "novo movimento teórico", defendo a necessidade de superar a divisão do trabalho de pesquisa entre os investigadores que se dedicam à microssociologia e os que preferem abordagens macrossociais. Nessa perspectiva, as opções teórico-metodológicas devem-se ancorar nas necessidades da investigação e não numa opção a priori do pesquisador por qualquer uma das alternativas.

Apprentissage automatique de la morphologie : le cas des structures racine-schème

RÉSUMÉ Cette thèse porte sur le développement de méthodes algorithmiques pour découvrir automatiquement la structure morphologique des mots d'un corpus. On considère en particulier le cas des langues s'approchant du type introflexionnel, comme l'arabe ou l'hébreu. La tradition linguistique décrit la morphologie de ces langues en termes d'unités discontinues : les racines consonantiques et les schèmes vocaliques. Ce genre de structure constitue un défi pour les systèmes actuels d'apprentissage automatique, qui opèrent généralement avec des unités continues. La stratégie adoptée ici consiste à traiter le problème comme une séquence de deux sous-problèmes. Le premier est d'ordre phonologique : il s'agit de diviser les symboles (phonèmes, lettres) du corpus en deux groupes correspondant autant que possible aux consonnes et voyelles phonétiques. Le second est de nature morphologique et repose sur les résultats du premier : il s'agit d'établir l'inventaire des racines et schèmes du corpus et de déterminer leurs règles de combinaison. On examine la portée et les limites d'une approche basée sur deux hypothèses : (i) la distinction entre consonnes et voyelles peut être inférée sur la base de leur tendance à alterner dans la chaîne parlée; (ii) les racines et les schèmes peuvent être identifiés respectivement aux séquences de consonnes et voyelles découvertes précédemment. L'algorithme proposé utilise une méthode purement distributionnelle pour partitionner les symboles du corpus. Puis il applique des principes analogiques pour identifier un ensemble de candidats sérieux au titre de racine ou de schème, et pour élargir progressivement cet ensemble. Cette extension est soumise à une procédure d'évaluation basée sur le principe de la longueur de description minimale, dans- l'esprit de LINGUISTICA (Goldsmith, 2001). L'algorithme est implémenté sous la forme d'un programme informatique nommé ARABICA, et évalué sur un corpus de noms arabes, du point de vue de sa capacité à décrire le système du pluriel. Cette étude montre que des structures linguistiques complexes peuvent être découvertes en ne faisant qu'un minimum d'hypothèses a priori sur les phénomènes considérés. Elle illustre la synergie possible entre des mécanismes d'apprentissage portant sur des niveaux de description linguistique distincts, et cherche à déterminer quand et pourquoi cette coopération échoue. Elle conclut que la tension entre l'universalité de la distinction consonnes-voyelles et la spécificité de la structuration racine-schème est cruciale pour expliquer les forces et les faiblesses d'une telle approche. ABSTRACT This dissertation is concerned with the development of algorithmic methods for the unsupervised learning of natural language morphology, using a symbolically transcribed wordlist. It focuses on the case of languages approaching the introflectional type, such as Arabic or Hebrew. The morphology of such languages is traditionally described in terms of discontinuous units: consonantal roots and vocalic patterns. Inferring this kind of structure is a challenging task for current unsupervised learning systems, which generally operate with continuous units. In this study, the problem of learning root-and-pattern morphology is divided into a phonological and a morphological subproblem. The phonological component of the analysis seeks to partition the symbols of a corpus (phonemes, letters) into two subsets that correspond well with the phonetic definition of consonants and vowels; building around this result, the morphological component attempts to establish the list of roots and patterns in the corpus, and to infer the rules that govern their combinations. We assess the extent to which this can be done on the basis of two hypotheses: (i) the distinction between consonants and vowels can be learned by observing their tendency to alternate in speech; (ii) roots and patterns can be identified as sequences of the previously discovered consonants and vowels respectively. The proposed algorithm uses a purely distributional method for partitioning symbols. Then it applies analogical principles to identify a preliminary set of reliable roots and patterns, and gradually enlarge it. This extension process is guided by an evaluation procedure based on the minimum description length principle, in line with the approach to morphological learning embodied in LINGUISTICA (Goldsmith, 2001). The algorithm is implemented as a computer program named ARABICA; it is evaluated with regard to its ability to account for the system of plural formation in a corpus of Arabic nouns. This thesis shows that complex linguistic structures can be discovered without recourse to a rich set of a priori hypotheses about the phenomena under consideration. It illustrates the possible synergy between learning mechanisms operating at distinct levels of linguistic description, and attempts to determine where and why such a cooperation fails. It concludes that the tension between the universality of the consonant-vowel distinction and the specificity of root-and-pattern structure is crucial for understanding the advantages and weaknesses of this approach.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

A characterization of a new value and an existing value for cooperative games with levels structure of cooperation

En aquest treball presentem dues caracteritzacions de dos valors diferents en el marc dels jocs coalicionals amb cooperació restringida. Les restriccions són introduïdes com una seqüència finita de particions del conjunt del jugadors, de manera que cada una d'elles eés més grollera que l'anterior, formant així una estructura amb diferents nivells d'unions a priori.

Resiliència i èxit escolar en l’alumnat de secundària de procedència estrangera. Diagnòstic i línies d’intervenció

L’estudi realitzat aborda i caracteritza des de l’enfocament de la resiliència com l’alumnat de procedència estrangera s’enfronta a una etapa d’alt risc d’abandonament escolar com és l’Educació Secundària Obligatòria (ESO) –especialment en el segon cicle– i el moment de transició acadèmica cap a la Postobligatòria (PO). En altres paraules, s’analitzen i valoren els mecanismes resilients desplegats per l’alumnat immigrant que donen llum sobre com aconseguir que processos, a priori, qualificats com a problemàtics o dificultosos per aquests grups degut a la seva situació de major vulnerabilitat esdevinguin una xarxa protectora que afavoreixi trajectòries d’èxit escolar. L’emmarcament conceptual des de la resiliència educativa, en general, ha centrat la seva atenció en la capacitat de l’individu per “compensar” certes limitacions amb altres habilitats. Tanmateix, la definició de resiliència a la qual ens hem aferrat té un caire més ecològic i culturalment sensible. És la definició proposada pel Resilience Research Centre (RRC) i encunyada pel seu co-director Michael Ungar: In the context of exposure to significant adversity, resilience is both the capacity of individuals to navigate their way to the psychological, social, cultural, and physical resources that sustain their well-being, and their capacity individually and collectively to negotiate for these resources to be provided in culturally meaningful ways (Ungar, 2012). Entesa d’aquesta manera, la resiliència és un constructe social que identifica els processos i resultats relacionats amb allò que la gent conceptualitza com a “benestar”. Així, es més probable que la resiliència aparegui quan es proporcionin els serveis, suports i recursos que garanteixen el benestar de tots els nens/es des d’una perspectiva que sigui significativa tant per a l’individu, com per la seva família i comunitat...