Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Optimization of chemical plant simulation using double collocation

A method has been constructed for the solution of a wide range of chemical plant simulation models including differential equations and optimization. Double orthogonal collocation on finite elements is applied to convert the model into an NLP problem that is solved either by the VF 13AD package based on successive quadratic programming, or by the GRG2 package, based on the generalized reduced gradient method. This approach is termed simultaneous optimization and solution strategy. The objective functional can contain integral terms. The state and control variables can have time delays. Equalities and inequalities containing state and control variables can be included into the model as well as algebraic equations and inequalities. The maximum number of independent variables is 2. Problems containing 3 independent variables can be transformed into problems having 2 independent variables using finite differencing. The maximum number of NLP variables and constraints is 1500. The method is also suitable for solving ordinary and partial differential equations. The state functions are approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials. The control function can either be approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials or by a piecewise constant function over finite elements. The number of internal collocation points can vary by finite elements. The residual error is evaluated at arbitrarily chosen equidistant grid-points, thus enabling the user to check the accuracy of the solution between collocation points, where the solution is exact. The solution functions can be tabulated. There is an option to use control vector parameterization to solve optimization problems containing initial value ordinary differential equations. When there are many differential equations or the upper integration limit should be selected optimally then this approach should be used. The portability of the package has been addressed converting the package from V AX FORTRAN 77 into IBM PC FORTRAN 77 and into SUN SPARC 2000 FORTRAN 77. Computer runs have shown that the method can reproduce optimization problems published in the literature. The GRG2 and the VF I 3AD packages, integrated into the optimization package, proved to be robust and reliable. The package contains an executive module, a module performing control vector parameterization and 2 nonlinear problem solver modules, GRG2 and VF I 3AD. There is a stand-alone module that converts the differential-algebraic optimization problem into a nonlinear programming problem.

An iterative method for the reconstruction of a stationary flow

In this article, an iterative algorithm based on the Landweber-Fridman method in combination with the boundary element method is developed for solving a Cauchy problem in linear hydrostatics Stokes flow of a slow viscous fluid. This is an iteration scheme where mixed well-posed problems for the stationary generalized Stokes system and its adjoint are solved in an alternating way. A convergence proof of this procedure is included and an efficient stopping criterion is employed. The numerical results confirm that the iterative method produces a convergent and stable numerical solution. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 2007

Continuous Dependence of Solutions of Quasidifferential Equations with Non-Fixed Time of Impulses

In this article on quasidifferential equation with non-fixed time of impulses we consider the continuous dependence of the solutions on the initial conditions as well as the mappings defined by these equations. We prove general theorems for quasidifferential equations from which follows corresponding results for differential equations, differential inclusion and equations with Hukuhara derivative.

Inhomogeneous Fractional Diffusion Equations

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 26A33; Secondary 35S10, 86A05

A Fractional Analog of the Duhamel Principle

Mathematics Subject Classification: 35CXX, 26A33, 35S10

Stochastic Solution of a KPP-Type Nonlinear Fractional Differential Equation

Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33, 76M35, 82B31

On a Differential Equation with Left and Right Fractional Derivatives

Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33; 70H03, 70H25, 70S05; 49S05

Time-Fractional Derivatives in Relaxation Processes: A Tutorial Survey

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33, 33E12, 33C60, 44A10, 45K05, 74D05,

Generalized Convolution Transforms and Toeplitz Plus Hankel Integral Equations

Mathematics Subject Classification: 44A05, 44A35

Operational Methods in the Environment of a Computer Algebra System

This article presents the principal results of the doctoral thesis “Direct Operational Methods in the Environment of a Computer Algebra System” by Margarita Spiridonova (Institute of mathematics and Informatics, BAS), successfully defended before the Specialised Academic Council for Informatics and Mathematical Modelling on 23 March, 2009.

Necessary and Sufficient Condition for Oscillations of Neutral Differential Equation

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 34K15, 34C10.

Symbolic Solving of Partial Differential Equation Systems and Compatibility Conditions

An algorithm is produced for the symbolic solving of systems of partial differential equations by means of multivariate Laplace–Carson transform. A system of K equations with M as the greatest order of partial derivatives and right-hand parts of a special type is considered. Initial conditions are input. As a result of a Laplace–Carson transform of the system according to initial condition we obtain an algebraic system of equations. A method to obtain compatibility conditions is discussed.

Sub- and Super-solutions of a Nonlinear PDE, and Application to a Semilinear SPDE

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35R60, 60H15, 74H35.

Solvability of an Infinite System of Singular Integral Equations

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 45G15, 26A33, 32A55, 46E15.