Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions

We describe the use of bivariate 3d empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in characterising low frequency variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Hadley Centre global climate model, HadCM3. We find that the leading two modes are well correlated with an index of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on decadal timescales, with the leading mode alone accounting for 54% of the decadal variance. Episodes of coherent oscillations in the sub-space of the leading EOFs are identified; these episodes are of great interest for the predictability of the THC, and could indicate the existence of different regimes of natural variability. The mechanism identified for the multi-decadal variability is an internal ocean mode, dominated by changes in convection in the Nordic Seas, which lead the changes in the MOC by a few years. Variations in salinity transports from the Arctic and from the North Atlantic are the main feedbacks which control the oscillation. This mode has a weak feedback onto the atmosphere and hence a surface climatic influence. Interestingly, some of these climate impacts lead the changes in the overturning. There are also similarities to observed multi-decadal climate variability.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Estimating soil water fluxes from soil water records obtained using dielectric sensors

Accurate estimation of the soil water balance (SWB) is important for a number of applications (e.g. environmental, meteorological, agronomical and hydrological). The objective of this study was to develop and test techniques for the estimation of soil water fluxes and SWB components (particularly infiltration, evaporation and drainage below the root zone) from soil water records. The work presented here is based on profile soil moisture data measured using dielectric methods, at 30-min resolution, at an experimental site with different vegetation covers (barley, sunflower and bare soil). Estimates of infiltration were derived by assuming that observed gains in the soil profile water content during rainfall were due to infiltration. Inaccuracies related to diurnal fluctuations present in the dielectric-based soil water records are resolved by filtering the data with adequate threshold values. Inconsistencies caused by the redistribution of water after rain events were corrected by allowing for a redistribution period before computing water gains. Estimates of evaporation and drainage were derived from water losses above and below the deepest zero flux plane (ZFP), respectively. The evaporation estimates for the sunflower field were compared to evaporation data obtained with an eddy covariance (EC) system located elsewhere in the field. The EC estimate of total evaporation for the growing season was about 25% larger than that derived from the soil water records. This was consistent with differences in crop growth (based on direct measurements of biomass, and field mapping of vegetation using laser altimetry) between the EC footprint and the area of the field used for soil moisture monitoring. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The diurnal course of soil moisture as measured by various dielectric sensors: Effects of soil temperature and the implications for evaporation estimates

Soil moisture content, theta, of a bare and vegetated UK gravelly sandy loam soil (in situ and repacked in small lysimeters) was measured using various dielectric instruments (single-sensor ThetaProbes, multi-sensor Profile Probes, and Aquaflex Sensors), at depths ranging between 0.03 and I m, during the summers of 2001 (in situ soil) and 2002 (mini-lysimeters). Half-hourly values of evaporation, E, were calculated from diurnal changes in total soil profile water content, using the soil water balance equation. For the bare soil field, Profile Probes and ML2x ThetaProbes indicated a diurnal course of theta that did not concur with typical soil physical observations: surface layer soil moisture content increased from early morning until about midday, after which theta declined, generally until the early evening. The unexpected course of theta was positively correlated to soil temperature, T-s, also at deeper depths. Aquaflex and ML1 ThetaProbe (older models) outputs, however, reflected common observations: 0 increased slightly during the night (capillary rise) and decreased from the morning until late afternoon (as a result of evaporation). For the vegetated plot, the spurious diurnal theta fluctuations were less obvious, because canopy shading resulted in lower amplitudes of T-s. The unrealistic theta profiles measured for the bare and vegetated field sites caused diurnal estimates of E to attain downward daytime and upward night-time values. In the mini-lysimeters, at medium to high moisture contents, theta values measured by (ML2x) ThetaProbes followed a relatively realistic course, and predictions of E from diurnal changes in vertically integrated theta generally compared well with lysimeter estimates of E. However, time courses of theta and E became comparable to those observed for the field plots when the soil in the lysimeters reached relatively low values of theta. Attempts to correct measured theta for fluctuations in T, revealed that no generally applicable formula could be derived. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.