871 resultados para Conditional-value-at-risk assessment


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SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.

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Given the significant impact the use of glucocorticoids can have on fracture risk independent of bone density, their use has been incorporated as one of the clinical risk factors for calculating the 10-year fracture risk in the World Health Organization's Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX(®)). Like the other clinical risk factors, the use of glucocorticoids is included as a dichotomous variable with use of steroids defined as past or present exposure of 3 months or more of use of a daily dose of 5 mg or more of prednisolone or equivalent. The purpose of this report is to give clinicians guidance on adjustments which should be made to the 10-year risk based on the dose, duration of use and mode of delivery of glucocorticoids preparations. A subcommittee of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation joint Position Development Conference presented its findings to an expert panel and the following recommendations were selected. 1) There is a dose relationship between glucocorticoid use of greater than 3 months and fracture risk. The average dose exposure captured within FRAX(®) is likely to be a prednisone dose of 2.5-7.5 mg/day or its equivalent. Fracture probability is under-estimated when prednisone dose is greater than 7.5 mg/day and is over-estimated when the prednisone dose is less than 2.5 mg/day. 2) Frequent intermittent use of higher doses of glucocorticoids increases fracture risk. Because of the variability in dose and dosing schedule, quantification of this risk is not possible. 3) High dose inhaled glucocorticoids may be a risk factor for fracture. FRAX(®) may underestimate fracture probability in users of high dose inhaled glucocorticoids. 4) Appropriate glucocorticoid replacement in individuals with adrenal insufficiency has not been found to increase fracture risk. In such patients, use of glucocorticoids should not be included in FRAX(®) calculations.

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INTRODUCTION Selenium is an essential micronutrient for human health, being a cofactor for enzymes with antioxidant activity that protect the organism from oxidative damage. An inadequate intake of this mineral has been associated with the onset and progression of chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, coronary diseases, asthma, and cancer. For this reason, knowledge of the plasma and erythrocyte selenium levels of a population makes a relevant contribution to assessment of its nutritional status. OBJECTIVE The objective of the present study was to determine the nutritional status of selenium and risk of selenium deficiency in a healthy adult population in Spain by examining food and nutrient intake and analyzing biochemical parameters related to selenium metabolism, including plasma and erythrocyte levels and selenium-dependent glutathione peroxidase (GPx) enzymatic activity. MATERIAL AND METHODS We studied 84 healthy adults (31 males and 53 females) from the province of Granada, determining their plasma and erythrocyte selenium concentrations and the association of these levels with the enzymatic activity of glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and with life style factors. We also gathered data on their food and nutrient intake and the results of biochemical analyses. Correlations were studied among all of these variables. RESULTS The mean plasma selenium concentration was 76.6 ± 17.3 μg/L (87.3 ± 17.4 μg/L in males, 67.3 ± 10.7 μg/L in females), whereas the mean erythrocyte selenium concentration was 104.6 μg/L (107.9 ± 26.1 μg/L in males and 101.7 ± 21.7 μg/L in females). The nutritional status of selenium was defined by the plasma concentration required to reach maximum GPx activity, establishing 90 μg/L as reference value. According to this criterion, 50% of the men and 53% of the women were selenium deficient. CONCLUSIONS Selenium is subjected to multiple regulation mechanisms. Erythrocyte selenium is a good marker of longer term selenium status, while plasma selenium appears to be a marker of short-term nutritional status. The present findings indicate a positive correlation between plasma selenium concentration and the practice of physical activity. Bioavailability studies are required to establish appropriate reference levels of this mineral for the Spanish population.

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BACKGROUND Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease that occurs more frequently in women than in men. Multiple Sclerosis Associated Retrovirus (MSRV) is a member of HERV-W, a multicopy human endogenous retroviral family repeatedly implicated in MS pathogenesis. MSRV envelope protein is elevated in the serum of MS patients and induces inflammation and demyelination but, in spite of this pathogenic potential, its exact genomic origin and mechanism of generation are unknown. A possible link between the HERV-W copy on chromosome Xq22.3, that contains an almost complete open reading frame, and the gender differential prevalence in MS has been suggested. RESULTS MSRV transcription levels were higher in MS patients than in controls (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.004). Also, they were associated with the clinical forms (Spearman; p = 0.0003) and with the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) (Spearman; p = 0.016). By mapping a 3 kb region in Xq22.3, including the HERV-W locus, we identified three polymorphisms: rs6622139 (T/C), rs6622140 (G/A) and rs1290413 (G/A). After genotyping 3127 individuals (1669 patients and 1458 controls) from two different Spanish cohorts, we found that in women rs6622139 T/C was associated with MS susceptibility: [χ2; p = 0.004; OR (95% CI) = 0.50 (0.31-0.81)] and severity, since CC women presented lower MSSS scores than CT (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.039) or TT patients (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.031). Concordantly with the susceptibility conferred in women, rs6622139*T was associated with higher MSRV expression (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS Our present work supports the hypothesis of a direct involvement of HERV-W/MSRV in MS pathogenesis, identifying a genetic marker on chromosome X that could be one of the causes underlying the gender differences in MS.

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A workshop was convened to discuss best practices for the assessment of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) in clinical trials. In a breakout session, workshop attendees discussed necessary data elements and standards for the accurate measurement of DILI risk associated with new therapeutic agents in clinical trials. There was agreement that in order to achieve this goal the systematic acquisition of protocol-specified clinical measures and lab specimens from all study subjects is crucial. In addition, standard DILI terms that address the diverse clinical and pathologic signatures of DILI were considered essential. There was a strong consensus that clinical and lab analyses necessary for the evaluation of cases of acute liver injury should be consistent with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance on pre-marketing risk assessment of DILI in clinical trials issued in 2009. A recommendation that liver injury case review and management be guided by clinicians with hepatologic expertise was made. Of note, there was agreement that emerging DILI signals should prompt the systematic collection of candidate pharmacogenomic, proteomic and/or metabonomic biomarkers from all study subjects. The use of emerging standardized clinical terminology, CRFs and graphic tools for data review to enable harmonization across clinical trials was strongly encouraged. Many of the recommendations made in the breakout session are in alignment with those made in the other parallel sessions on methodology to assess clinical liver safety data, causality assessment for suspected DILI, and liver safety assessment in special populations (hepatitis B, C, and oncology trials). Nonetheless, a few outstanding issues remain for future consideration.

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La médecine prédictive évalue la probabilité que des personnes portant des mutations génétiques constitutionnelles puissent développer une maladie donnée, comme par exemple une tumeur maligne (oncogénétique). Dans le cas des prédispositions génétiques au cancer, des mesures particulières de surveillance et de prévention sont discutées en fonction de l'évaluation des risques et des résultats de l'analyse génétique, y compris certains traitements préventifs allant, à l'extrême, jusqu'à l'intervention chirurgicale prophylactique (ex : mastectomie et/ou ovariectomie). Cette étude est basée sur une interprétation psychanalytique du récit de sujets ayant entrepris une démarche en oncogénétique et vise à analyser l'impact psychique : a) du résultat de l'analyse génétique et b) de la construction de l'arbre généalogique. Elle a été conduite dans l'Unité d'oncogénétique et de prévention des cancers (UOPC) du Service d'oncologie des Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève (HUG). L'UOPC assure des consultations de conseil génétique spécialisé pour les personnes ayant des antécédents personnels et/ou familiaux de maladies tumorales suggestifs de l'existence de prédispositions génétiques au cancer. La population de cette étude comprend 125 sujets suivis lors des différentes étapes du dépistage, pour un total de 289 consultations et 50 entretiens individuels. Cette recherche montre que les sujets asymptomatiques réélaborent de façon personnelle, soit le résultat génétique (négatif ou positif), soit l'acte de prédiction. En revanche, ceux qui ont développé un cancer expriment des sentiments d'angoisse, comme s'ils subissaient les effets d'un destin inéluctable qui s'est effectivement réalisé. Par ailleurs, l'arbre généalogique est réinterprété de façon personnelle, laissant apparaître des aspects refoulés ou niés qui peuvent resurgir. Lorsque d'autres membres de la famille sont sollicités pour préciser les liens génétiques et/ou être soumis en première intention à l'analyse génétique, le sujet exprime sa difficulté de dépendre d'autres personnes pour connaître son propre statut biologique. D'une façon générale, on constate que là où la médecine prédictive réalise son acte de prévision, le sujet répond de façon imprévisible. Dans l'optique de la psychanalyse, cette imprévisibilité est liée aux aspects du « désir inconscient ». Cette étude montre aussi qu'on ne peut pas considérer le dépistage génétique comme étant la cause directe du traumatisme. L'effort doit porter sur le fait que le sujet puisse se réapproprier ce qui lui arrive, et exprimer progressivement sa souffrance spécifique en jeu dans le processus de prédiction pour créer un écart entre la vérité médicale et la sienne. L'espace de la parole devient ainsi le lieu d'un travail privilégié. La psychanalyse opère donc pour que le résultat génétique se détache de l'acte de prédiction, c'est-à-dire qu'il redevienne un moment de la vie du sujet qui puisse s'articuler comme sa propre histoire personnelle. The aim of predictive medicine is to assess the probability that individuals carrying germ-line mutations will develop certain diseases, for instance cancer (oncogenetics). In predictive oncology, particular surveillance and prevention measures are discussed with these patients in relation to risk assessment and results of genetic testing, including preventive care which can, in extremes cases, lead to prophylactic surgery (i.e. mastectomy and/or ovariectomy). This study is based on a psychoanalytic interpretation of subjects' narration of the oncogenetic process and aims at analyzing the psychological impact of a) genetic testing and b) the construction of the family tree. It was carried out at the Oncogenetics and cancer prevention unit (Unité d'oncogénétique et de prévention des cancers) from the Geneva University Hospitals (Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, HUG) which organizes genetic counselling for individuals having personal and/or family history suggestive of genetic predisposition to cancer. The study population comprises 125 patients followed during the successive steps of genetic counselling, for a total of 289 consultations and 50 personal interviews. This research shows that asymptomatic subjects re-elaborate in a personal way either the results of genetic testing (negative or positive) or the act of prediction. Conversely, those having developed cancer express feelings of anguish, as if they were undergoing the effects of a destiny which effectively happened. Its sight remains a difficult step of the oncogenetic process, as psychological aspects which were repressed or denied can re-appear. When some family members are solicited to help reconstructing the genetic relationships, sometimes being themselves submitted first to genetic testing, the study subject expresses the difficulty to depend on other persons to learn more about his own biological status. In this study, we observe that, in parallel to predictions delivered by the process of predictive medicine, the subject actually answers unpredictably. With a psychoanalytic perspective, this unpredictability is related to an "unconscious desire". We also find that we cannot consider that genetic screening is a direct cause of psychological trauma. Our efforts must rely on allowing the subject to re-appropriate himself what is happening, to let him progressively express his own suffering of the prediction in order to create a gap between the medical reality and his own. In this process, "speech" is needed to let this happening. Psychoanalysis works in such a way that the genetic testing's result becomes distinct from the act of prediction, a moment of the subject's life expressed as his own personal history.

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OBJECTIVE: In 2005-2006, several studies noted an increased risk of cardiovascular birth defects associated with maternal use of paroxetine compared with other antidepressants in the same class. In this study, the authors sought to determine whether paroxetine was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular defects in infants of women exposed to the drug during the first trimester of pregnancy. METHOD: From teratology information services around the world, the authors collected prospectively ascertained, unpublished cases of infants exposed to paroxetine early in the first trimester of pregnancy and compared them with an unexposed cohort. The authors also contacted the authors of published database studies on antidepressants as a class to determine how many of the women in those studies had been exposed to paroxetine and the rates of cardiovascular defects in their infants. RESULTS: The authors were able to ascertain the outcomes of 1,174 infants from eight services. The rates of cardiac defects in the paroxetine group and in the unexposed group were both 0.7%. The rate in the database studies (2,061 cases from four studies) was 1.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Paroxetine does not appear to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular defects following use in early pregnancy, as the incidence in more than 3,000 infants was well within the population incidence of approximately 1%.

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Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

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Most available studies on lead smelter emissions deal with the environmental impact of outdoor particles, but only a few focus on air quality at workplaces. The objective of this study is to physically and chemically characterize the Pb-rich particles emitted at different workplaces in a lead recycling plant. A multi-scale characterization was conducted from bulk analysis to the level of individual particles, to assess the particles properties in relation with Pb speciation and availability. Process PM from various origins were sampled and then compared; namely Furnace and Refining PM respectively present in the smelter and at refinery workplaces, Emissions PM present in channeled emissions.These particles first differed by their morphology and size distribution, with finer particles found in emissions. Differences observed in chemical composition could be explained by the industrial processes. All PM contained the same major phases (Pb, PbS, PbO, PbSO4 and PbO·PbSO4) but differed on the nature and amount of minor phases. Due to high content in PM, Pb concentrations in the CaCl2 extractant reached relatively high values (40 mg.L-1). However, the ratios (soluble/total) of CaCl2 exchangeable Pb were relatively low (< 0.02%) in comparison with Cd (up to 18%). These results highlight the interest to assess the soluble fractions of all metals (minor and major) and discuss both total metal concentrations and ratios for risk evaluations. In most cases metal extractability increased with decreasing size of particles, in particular, lead exchangeability was highest for channeled emissions. Such type of study could help in the choice of targeted sanitary protection procedures and for further toxicological investigations. In the present context, particular attention is given to Emissions and Furnace PM. Moreover, exposure to other metals than Pb should be considered. [Authors]

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BACKGROUND: The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) estimates the risk of 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We constructed a simplified version of the PESI. METHODS: The study retrospectively developed a simplified PESI clinical prediction rule for estimating the risk of 30-day mortality in a derivation cohort of Spanish outpatients. Simplified and original PESI performances were compared in the derivation cohort. The simplified PESI underwent retrospective external validation in an independent multinational cohort (Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad Tromboembólica [RIETE] cohort) of outpatients. RESULTS: In the derivation data set, univariate logistic regression of the original 11 PESI variables led to the removal of variables that did not reach statistical significance and subsequently produced the simplified PESI that contained the variables of age, cancer, chronic cardiopulmonary disease, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and oxyhemoglobin saturation levels. The prognostic accuracy of the original and simplified PESI scores did not differ (area under the curve, 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.80]). The 305 of 995 patients (30.7%) who were classified as low risk by the simplified PESI had a 30-day mortality of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.0%-2.1%) compared with 10.9% (8.5%-13.2%) in the high-risk group. In the RIETE validation cohort, 2569 of 7106 patients (36.2%) who were classified as low risk by the simplified PESI had a 30-day mortality of 1.1% (95% CI, 0.7%-1.5%) compared with 8.9% (8.1%-9.8%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSION: The simplified PESI has similar prognostic accuracy and clinical utility and greater ease of use compared with the original PESI.

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BACKGROUND: Physicians need a specific risk-stratification tool to facilitate safe and cost-effective approaches to the management of patients with cancer and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The objective of this study was to develop a simple risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE and cancer by using measures readily obtained at the time of PE diagnosis. METHODS: Investigators randomly allocated 1,556 consecutive patients with cancer and acute PE from the international multicenter Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. The external validation cohort for this study consisted of 261 patients with cancer and acute PE. Investigators compared 30-day all-cause mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. RESULTS: In the derivation sample, multivariable analyses produced the risk score, which contained six variables: age > 80 years, heart rate ≥ 110/min, systolic BP < 100 mm Hg, body weight < 60 kg, recent immobility, and presence of metastases. In the internal validation cohort (n = 508), the 22.2% of patients (113 of 508) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 4.4% (95% CI, 0.6%-8.2%) compared with 29.9% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.4%) in the high-risk group. In the external validation cohort, the 18% of patients (47 of 261) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 0%, compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-25.0%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical prediction rule accurately identifies low-risk patients with cancer and acute PE.

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OBJECTIVES: To study the ways of managing HIV risk within male homosexual steady relationships (gay couples), including factors associated with consistent condom use during anal sex with the steady partner.¦METHOD: An anonymous and standardized questionnaire completed by a convenience sample of homosexuals in Switzerland in 1997 (n = 1097). Information on the couple was provided by the 74% (n = 786) of male respondents who reported having a steady partner in the past 12 months. Data were analysed by contingency tables and logistic regression.¦RESULTS: Different ways of managing HIV risk were reported: negotiated safety (both HIV negative, condoms abandoned) was chosen by one quarter of the couples, but the most frequent solution was reliance on condoms for anal sex, chosen by more than four in 10. Altogether 84% of couples exhibited safe management of HIV risk within their partnership. The 16% of couples showing inadequate management of HIV risk within the couple mostly relied on questionable assumptions about past or present risks. A total of 74% of couples had spoken about managing HIV risk with possible casual partners. Reported behaviour with the steady partner and with casual partners was highly consistent with claimed strategies chosen to manage HIV risk. Consistent condom use with the steady partner was mostly associated with variables characterizing the relationship: initial 2 years of the relationship, discordant or unknown serological HIV status, non-exclusivity.¦CONCLUSION: Gay couples manage HIV risk in a variety of ways. Most strategies provide adequate protection with casual partners, but leave gaps in protection between the steady partners themselves.

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BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have an increased risk for several cancers, but the influences of behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and intravenous drug use, and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on cancer risk are not clear. METHODS: Patient records were linked between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and Swiss cantonal cancer registries. Observed and expected numbers of incident cancers were assessed in 7304 persons infected with HIV followed for 28,836 person-years. Relative risks for cancer compared with those for the general population were determined by estimating cancer registry-, sex-, age-, and period-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). RESULTS: Highly elevated SIRs were confirmed in persons infected with HIV for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) (SIR = 192, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 170 to 217) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 76.4, 95% CI = 66.5 to 87.4). Statistically significantly elevated SIRs were also observed for anal cancer (SIR = 33.4, 95% CI = 10.5 to 78.6); Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 17.3, 95% CI = 10.2 to 27.4); cancers of the cervix (SIR = 8.0, 95% CI = 2.9 to 17.4); liver (SIR = 7.0, 95% CI = 2.2 to 16.5); lip, mouth, and pharynx (SIR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1 to 7.4); trachea, lung, and bronchus (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.7 to 5.4); and skin, nonmelanomatous (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.2 to 4.5). In HAART users, SIRs for KS (SIR = 25.3, 95% CI = 10.8 to 50.1) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 24.2, 95% CI = 15.0 to 37.1) were lower than those for nonusers (KS SIR = 239, 95% CI = 211 to 270; non-Hodgkin lymphoma SIR = 99.3, 95% CI = 85.8 to 114). Among HAART users, however, the SIR (although not absolute numbers) for Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 36.2, 95% CI = 16.4 to 68.9) was comparable to that for KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No clear impact of HAART on SIRs emerged for cervical cancer or non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. Cancers of the lung, lip, mouth, or pharynx were not observed among nonsmokers. CONCLUSION: In persons infected with HIV, HAART use may prevent most excess risk of KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but not that of Hodgkin lymphoma and other non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. No cancers of the lip, mouth, pharynx, or lung were observed in nonsmokers.