Independent at heart: persistent association of altitude with ischaemic heart disease mortality after consideration of climate, topography and built environment.

BACKGROUND Living at higher altitude was dose-dependently associated with lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Higher altitudes have different climatic, topographic and built environment properties than lowland regions. It is unclear whether these environmental factors mediate/confound the association between altitude and IHD. We examined how much of the altitude-IHD association is explained by variations in exposure at place of residence to sunshine, temperature, precipitation, aspect, slope and distance to main road. METHODS We included 4.2 million individuals aged 40-84 at baseline living in Switzerland at altitudes 195-2971 m above sea level (ie, full range of residence), providing 77 127 IHD deaths. Mortality data 2000-2008, sociodemographic/economic information and coordinates of residence were obtained from the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal, census-based record linkage study. Environment information was modelled to residence level using Weibull regression models. RESULTS In the model not adjusted for other environmental factors, IHD mortality linearly decreased with increasing altitude resulting in a lower risk (HR, 95% CI 0.67, 0.60 to 0.74) for those living >1500 m (vs<600 m). This association remained after adjustment for all other environmental factors 0.74 (0.66 to 0.82). CONCLUSIONS The benefit of living at higher altitude was only partially confounded by variations in climate, topography and built environment. Rather, physical environment factors appear to have an independent effect and may impact on cardiovascular health in a cumulative way. Inclusion of additional modifiable factors as well as individual information on traditional IHD risk factors in our combined environmental model could help to identify strategies for the reduction of inequalities in IHD mortality.

The ecoclimatology of Danum, Sabah, in the context of the world's rainforest regions, with particular reference to dry periods and their impact

Climatic records for Danum for 1985 to 1998, elsewhere in Sabah since 1879, and long monthly rainfall series from other rainforest locations are used to place the climate, and particularly the dry period climatology, of Danum into a world rainforest context. The magnitude frequency and seasonality of dry periods are shown to vary greatly within the world's rainforest zone. The climate of Danum, which is aseasonal but subject, as in 1997 to 1998, to occasional drought, is intermediate between less drought–prone north–western Borneo and the more drought–prone east coast. Changes through time in drought magnitude frequency in Sabah and rainforest locations elsewhere in South–East Asia and in the Neotropics are compared. The 1997 to 1998 ENSO–related drought event in Sabah is placed into a historical context. The effects of drought on tree growth and mortality in the tropics are assessed and a model relating intensity and frequency of drought disturbance to forest structure and composition is discussed.

Continuous 25-years aerosol records at coastal Antarctica: Part I. Variability and climate implications of ionic compounds

The aerosol climatology at the coastal Antarctic Neumayer Station (NM) was investigated based on continuous, 25-yr long observations of biogenic sulphur components (methanesulfonate and non-sea salt sulphate), sea salt and nitrate. Although significant long-term trends could only be detected for nitrate (-3.6 ± 2.5% per year between 1983 and 1993 and +4.0 ± 3.2% per year from 1993-2007), non-harmonic periodicities between 2 and 5 yr were typical for all species. Dedicated time series analyses revealed that relations to sea ice extent and various circulation indices are weak at best or not significant. In particular, no consistent link between sea ice extent and sea salt loadings was evident suggesting only a rather local relevance of the NM sea salt record. Nevertheless, a higher Southern Annular Mode index tended to entail a lower biogenic sulphur signal. In examining the spatial uniformity of the NM findings we contrasted them to respective 17 yr records from the coastal Dumont d'Urville Station. We found similar long-term trends for nitrate, indicating an Antarctic-wide but not identifiable atmospheric signal, although any significant impact of solar activity or pollution could be ruled out. No inter-site variability on the multiannual scale was evident for the other ionic compounds.

Climatic impact on Al, K, Sc and Ti in marine sediments: Evidence from ODP Site 1144, South China Sea

Al, K, Sc and Ti concentrations of the terrestrial material-dominant sediments from ODP site 1144 were reported. Comparison between the bulk and the acid-leached sediments indicates that about 20~30% of the Al, K and Sc in the bulk sediments are not hosted in terrestrial detritus, rather they are of authigenic origin. However, authigenic Ti is negligible. The results indicate that Ti rather than Al is the best proxy for terrestrial materials. Significant climate controls are displayed in the Al/Ti, K/Ti and Sc/Ti variation patterns both for the bulk and the acid leached sediments. Such variation patterns can be mainly accounted for in terms of climate change in their provenance areas in South China. Elevated Al/Ti, K/Ti and Sc/Ti ratios during interglacial periods indicate that chemical weathering then was stronger than during glacial periods, which might be related to a more humid climate in interglacial periods.

Ocean temperature response to idealized Gleissberg and de Vries solar cycles in a comprehensive climate model

The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).

Climate reconstruction and oxygen isotope composition of sediment core Dethlingen, Germany

To gain insights into the mechanisms of abrupt climate change within interglacials, we have examined the characteristics and spatial extent of a prominent, climatically induced vegetation setback during the Holsteinian interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c). Based on analyses of pollen and varves of lake sediments from Dethlingen (northern Germany), this climatic oscillation, here termed the "Older Holsteinian Oscillation" (OHO), lasted 220 years. It can be subdivided into a 90-year-long decline of temperate tree taxa associated with an expansion of Pinus and herbs, and a 130-year-long recovery phase marked by the expansion of Betula and Alnus, and the subsequent recovery of temperate trees. The climate-induced nature of the OHO is corroborated by changes in diatom assemblages and ?18O measured on biogenic silica indicating an impact on the aquatic ecosystem of the Dethlingen paleolake. The OHO is widely documented in pollen records from Europe north of 50° latitude and is characterized by boreal climate conditions with cold winters from the British Isles to Poland, with a gradient of decreasing temperature and moisture availability, and increased continentality towards eastern Europe. This pattern points to a weakened influence of the westerlies and/or a stronger influence of the Siberian High. A comparison of the OHO with the 8.2 ka event of the Holocene reveals close similarities regarding the imprint on terrestrial ecosystems and the interglacial boundary conditions. Hence, in analogy to the 8.2 ka event, a transient, meltwater-induced slowdown of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation appears as a plausible trigger mechanism for the OHO. If correct, meltwater release into the North Atlantic may be a more common agent of abrupt climate change during interglacials than previously thought. We conclude that meltwater-induced climate setbacks during interglacials preferentially occurred when low rates of summer insolation increase during the preceding terminations facilitated the persistence of large-scale continental ice-sheets well into the interglacials.

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on respiration, heart rate and acid-base status of Mytilus edulis from the North Sea

Anthropogenic climate change confronts marine organisms with rapid trends of concomitant warming and CO2 induced ocean acidification. The survival and distribution of species partly depend on their ability to exploit their physiological plasticity during acclimatization. Therefore, in laboratory studies the effects of simulated future ocean acidification on thermal tolerance, energy metabolism and acid-base regulation capacity of the North Sea population of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis were examined. Following one month of pre-acclimation to 10 °C and control CO2 levels, mussels were exposed for two weeks to control and projected oceanic CO2 levels (390, 750 and 1120 µatm) before being subjected to a stepwise warming protocol between 10 °C and 31 °C (+ 3 °C each night). Oxygen consumption and heart rates, anaerobic metabolite levels and haemolymph acid-base status were determined at each temperature. CO2 exposure left oxygen consumption rate unchanged at acclimation temperature but caused a somewhat stronger increase during acute warming and thus mildly higher Q10-values than seen in controls. Interestingly, the thermally induced limitation of oxygen consumption rate set in earlier in normocapnic than in hypercapnic (1120 µatm CO2) mussels (25.2 °C vs. 28.8 °C), likely due to an onset of metabolic depression in the control group following warming. However, the temperature induced increase in heart rate became limited above 25 °C in both groups indicating an unchanged pejus temperature regardless of CO2 treatment. An upper critical temperature was reached above 28 °C in both treatments indicated by the accumulation of anaerobic metabolites in the mantle tissue, paralleled by a strong increase in haemolymph PCO2 at 31 °C. Ocean acidification caused a decrease in haemolymph pH. The extracellular acidosis remained largely uncompensated despite some bicarbonate accumulation. In all treatments animals developed a progressive warming-induced extracellular acidosis. A stronger pH drop at around 25 °C was followed by stagnating heart rates. However, normocapnic mussels enhanced bicarbonate accumulation at the critical limit, a strategy no longer available to hypercapnic mussels. In conclusion, CO2 has small effects on the response patterns of mussels to warming, leaving thermal thresholds largely unaffected. High resilience of adult North Sea mussels to future ocean acidification indicates that sensitivity to thermal stress is more relevant in shaping the response to future climate change.

Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

The formation of a subsurface anticyclonic eddy in the Peru-Chile Undercurrent and its impact on the near-coastal salinity, oxygen and nutrient distributions

The formation of a subsurface anticyclonic eddy in the Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC) in January and February 2013 is investigated using a multi-platform four-dimensional observational approach. Research vessel, multiple glider and mooring-based measurements were conducted in the Peruvian upwelling regime near 12°30'S. The dataset consists of more than 10000 glider profiles and repeated vessel-based hydrography and velocity transects. It allows a detailed description of the eddy formation and its impact on the near-coastal salinity, oxygen and nutrient distributions. In early January, a strong PCUC with maximum poleward velocities of ca. 0.25 m/s at 100 to 200 m depth was observed. Starting on January 20 a subsurface anticyclonic eddy developed in the PCUC downstream of a topographic bend, suggesting flow separation as the eddy formation mechanism. The eddy core waters exhibited oxygen concentrations less than 1mol/kg, an elevated nitrogen-deficit of ca. 17µmol/l and potential vorticity close to zero, which seemed to originate from the bottom boundary layer of the continental slope. The eddy-induced across-shelf velocities resulted in an elevated exchange of water masses between the upper continental slope and the open ocean. Small scale salinity and oxygen structures were formed by along-isopycnal stirring and indications of eddy-driven oxygen ventilation of the upper oxygen minimum zone were observed. It is concluded that mesoscale stirring of solutes and the offshore transport of eddy core properties could provide an important coastal open-ocean exchange mechanism with potentially large implications for nutrient budgets and biogeochemical cycling in the oxygen minimum zone off Peru.

Decline in Coccolithophore Diversity and Impact on Coccolith Morphogenesis Along a Natural CO2 Gradient

A natural pH gradient caused by marine CO2 seeps off Vulcano Island (Italy) was used to assess the effects of ocean acidification on coccolithophores, which are abundant planktonic unicellular calcifiers. Such seeps are used as natural laboratories to study the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems, since they cause long-term changes in seawater carbonate chemistry and pH, exposing the organisms to elevated CO2 concentrations and therefore mimicking future scenarios. Previous work at CO2 seeps has focused exclusively on benthic organisms. Here we show progressive depletion of 27 coccolithophore species, in terms of cell concentrations and diversity, along a calcite saturation gradient from Omega calcite 6.4 to <1. Water collected close to the main CO2 seeps had the highest concentrations of malformed Emiliania huxleyi. These observations add to a growing body of evidence that ocean acidification may benefit some algae but will likely cause marine biodiversity loss, especially by impacting calcifying species, which are affected as carbonate saturation falls.

Land based mesocosm experiment studying the simultaneous impact of warming and acidification on the planktonic food web of the Eastern Mediterranean

A land based mesocosm experiment focusing on the study of the simultaneous impact of warming and acidification on the planktonic food web of the Eastern Mediterranean took place in August-September 2013 at the mesocosm facilities of HCMR in Crete (CRETACOSMOS). Two different pCO2 (present day and predicted for year 2100) were applied in triplicate mesocosms of 3 m**3. This was tested in two different temperatures (ambient seawater T and ambient T plus 3°C). Twelve mesocosms in total were incubated in two large concrete tanks. Temperature was controlled by sophisticated, automated systems. A large variety of chemical, biological and biochemical variables were studied, including salinity, temperature, light and alkalinity measurements, inorganic and organic, particulate and dissolved, nutrient analyses, biological stock (Chla concentration, enumeration and community composition of microbial, phyto- and zooplankton organisms) and rate (primary, bacterial, viral production, copepod egg production, zooplankton grazing, N2 fixation, P uptake) measurements, bacterial DNA extraction and phytoplankton transcriptomics, calcifiers analyses. Twenty three scientists from 6 Institutes and 5 countries participated in this experiment.

TTIP and Climate Change – How real are Race to the Bottom Concerns?

This paper examines concerns about the impact that TTIP could have on existing and future climate policies and laws from the inclusion of provisions on investment protection including investor-to-State dispute settlement (ISDS), the reduction of non-tariff barriers and the introduction of rules for trade in energy and raw materials. It argues that from an environmental perspective, ISDS should not necessarily be seen as a regime that goes against the defence of the environment or prevention of climate change. Although it might be used to challenge policies of an EU home State that increase levels of environmental protection, it can also be used to contest changes in an EU home State’s environmental policies that would reduce the protection of the environment, if foreign investment is affected. To a large extent, this also holds true for other areas of TTIP negotiations. While the achievement of a balance between rules that promote trade and those that maintain policy space for governments to respond to environmental concerns has to be closely monitored, benefits for climate could be seized from harmonisation of carbon laws at the level of the strictest regulations of two parties, provisions that promote trade in low carbon technologies and renewable energy and bilateral cooperation on climate change.