Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Accumulation and composition of terrigenous material on Ceara rise over the past 55 Ma

Ceara Rise, located east the Amazon River mouth, is covered with a thick blanket of pelagic carbonate and hemipelagic terrigenous sediment. The terrigenous component has been extracted from 57 bulk sediment samples at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 925 and 929 on Ceara Rise to obtain a Cenozoic record of riverine discharge from northern South America. From the early Eocene to early Miocene (55-20 Ma), terrigenous accumulation was dominated by moderate amounts of generally large-grained, gray to green sediment especially depleted in elements that are enriched in post-Archaean shale (e.g. Cs, Th, Yb). However, pulsed inputs of relatively small-grained, gray to green terrigenous sediment less depleted in the above elements occurred in the late Eocene and Oligocene. The accumulation of terrigenous sediment decreased significantly until 16.5 Ma. In the middle Miocene (16.5-13 Ma), terrigenous accumulation was dominated by small amounts of small-grained, tan sediment notably depleted in Na and heavy rare earth elements. The accumulation rate of terrigenous sediment increased markedly from the latest Miocene (10 Ma) to the present day, a change characterized by deposition of gray-green sediment enriched in elements that are enriched in post-Archaean shale. Observed changes in terrigenous sediment at Ceara Rise record tectonism and erosion in northern South America. The Brazil and Guyana shields supplied sediment to the eastern South American margin until the middle Miocene (20-16.5 Ma) when a period of thrusting, shortening and uplift changed the source region, probably first to highly weathered and proximal Phanerozoic sediments. By the late Miocene (9 Ma), there was a transcontinental connection between the Andes and eastern South America. Weathering products derived from the Andes have increasingly dominated terrigenous deposition at Ceara Rise since the Late Miocene and especially since the late Pliocene.