Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat quantity and quality; (ii) impacts of changes in production and habitat on marine fish and shellfish species including effects on the community species composition, spatial distributions, interactions, and vital rates of fish and shellfish; (iii) impacts on fisheries and their associatedcommunities; (iv) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty andmodelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where relative impacts by region could be compared on a hemispheric or global level. Eight research foci were identified that will improve the projections of climate impacts on fish, fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities.

Biodiversity and ecosystems: Change at the community level

Some commercial fish species of the northeast Atlantic Ocean have relocated in response to warming. The impact of warming on marine assemblages in the region may already be much greater than appreciated, however, with over 70% of common demersal fish species responding through changes in abundance, rather than range. The northeast Atlantic Ocean is one of the most productive marine ecoregions in the world with a substantial commercial fishery. It is also a region that has undergone particularly rapid warming over the past 50 years, up to four times faster than the global average1. Compared with other marine regions worldwide, the biological response in the northeast Atlantic Ocean has been particularly dramatic, reflecting this rapid warming. Studies have documented biogeographical movements in marine plankton of over 1,000 km northwards2 and advances in the onset of key life-history events by six to eight weeks3. In addition, there has been limited evidence of distributional shifts in some fish species along latitudinal and depth gradients in response to warming4, 5. Writing in Current Biology, Stephen Simpson and colleagues6 present the most comprehensive analysis so far of the impact of warming on commercially important European continental-shelf fish species in the region, and in doing so show that there has been a profound reorganization of local communities.

Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

In hot water: zooplankton and climate change

An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.

Investigation of benthic community change over a century-wide scale in the western English Channel

Since the early part of the 20th Century the impact of a range of anthropogenic activities in our coastal seas has steadily increased. The effect of such activities is a major cause for concern but in the benthic environment few studies exist that date back more than a few decades. Hence understanding long term changes is a challenge. Within this study we utilized a historic benthic dataset and resurveyed an area west of Eddystone reef in the English Channel previously investigated 112 years ago. The aim of the present work was to describe the current benthic community structure and investigate potential differences between 1895 and 2007. For each of the four major phyla investigated (Polychaeta, Crustacea, Mollusca and Echinodermata), multivariate community analysis showed significant differences between the historic and contemporary surveys. Echinoderm diversity showed a clear reduction between 1895 and 2007. The sea urchins Echinus esculentus, Spatangus purpureus, and Psammechinus miliaris and large star-fish Marthasterias glacialis showed reductions in abundance, in some cases being entirely absent from the survey area in 2007. Polychaetes showed a shift from tubiculous species to small errant and predatory species such as Glycera, Nephtys, and Lumbrineris spp. Within the group Mollusca large species such as Pecten maximus and Laevicardium crassum decreased in abundance while small species increased. Crustaceans in 1895 were dominated by crab species which were present in similar abundances in 2007, but, the order Amphipoda appeared to show a significant increase. While some of the differences observed could stem from differences in methodologies between the surveys, in particular increases of small cryptic species, the loss of large conspicuous species was judged to be genuine. The study area is an important beam trawling and scallop dredging ground; the differences observed are concomitant with changes generally associated with disturbance from demersal fishing activities such as these.

Climate change and marine benthos: a review of existing research and future directions in the North Atlantic

There is growing evidence that climate change could affect marine benthic systems. This review provides information of climate change‐related impacts on the marine benthos in the North Atlantic. We cover a number of related research aspects, mainly in connection to two key issues. First, is the relationship between different physical aspects of climate change and the marine benthos. This section covers: (a) the responses to changes in seawater temperature (biogeographic shifts and phenology); (b) altered Hydrodynamics; (c) ocean acidification (OA); and (d) sea‐level rise‐coastal squeeze. The second major issue addressed is the possible integrated impact of climate change on the benthos. This work is based on relationships between proxies for climate variability, notably the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and the long‐term marine benthos. The final section of our review provides a series of conclusions and future directions to support climate change research on marine benthic systems. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:203–223. doi: 10.1002/wcc.330

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Analyses of sublittoral macrobenthic community change in a marine nature reserve using similarity profiles (SIMPROF).

Sublittoral macrobenthic communities in the Skomer Marine Nature Reserve (SMNR), Pembrokeshire, Wales, were sampled at 10 stations in 1993, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2009 using a Day grab and a 0.5 mm mesh. The time series is analysed using Similarities Profiles (SIMPROF) tests and associated methods. Q-mode analysis using clustering with Type 1 SIMPROF addresses multivariate structure among samples, showing that there is clear structure associated with differences among years. Inverse (r-mode) analysis using Type 2 SIMPROF decisively rejects a hypothesis that species are not associated with each other. Clustering of the variables (species) with Type 3 SIMPROF identifies groups of species which covary coherently through the time-series. The time-series is characterised by a dramatic decline in abundances and diversity between the 1993 and 1996 surveys. By 1998 there had been a shift in community composition from the 1993 situation, with different species dominating. Communities had recovered in terms of abundance and species richness, but different species dominated the community. No single factor could be identified which unequivocally explained the dramatic changes observed in the SMNR. Possible causes were the effects of dispersed oil and dispersants from the Sea Empress oil spill in February 1996 and the cessation of dredge-spoil disposal off St Anne’s Head in 1995, but the most likely cause was severe weather. With many species, and a demonstrable recovery from an impact, communities within the SMNR appear to be diverse and resilient. If attributable to natural storms, the changes observed here indicate that natural variability may be much more important than is generally taken into account in the design of monitoring programmes.

The impact of nurse-directed protocolised-weaning from mechanical ventilation on nursing practice: A quasi-experimental study

Background:
Internationally, nurse-directed protocolised-weaning has been evaluated by measuring its impact on patient outcomes. The impact on nurses’ views and perceptions has been largely ignored.

Aim:
To determine the change in intensive care nurses’ perceptions, satisfaction, knowledge and attitudes following the introduction of nurse-directed weaning. Additionally, views were obtained on how useful protocolised-weaning was to practice.

Methods:
The sample comprised nurses working in general intensive care units in three university-affiliated hospitals. Nurse-directed protocolised-weaning was implemented in one unit (intervention group); two ICUs continued with usual doctor-led practice (control group). Nurses’ perceptions, satisfaction, knowledge and attitudes were measured by self-completed questionnaires before (Phase I) and after the implementation of nurse-directed weaning (Phase II) in all units.

Results:
Response rates were 79% (n=140n=140) for Phase 1 and 62% (n=132n=132) for Phase II. Regression-based analyses showed that changes from Phase I to Phase II were not significantly different between the intervention and control groups. Sixty-nine nurses responded to both Phase I and II questionnaires. In the intervention group, these nurses scored their mean perceived level of knowledge higher in Phase II (6.39 vs 7.17, p=0.01p=0.01). In the control group, role perception (4.41 vs 4.22, p=0.01p=0.01) was lower and, perceived knowledge (6.03 vs 6.63, p=0.04p=0.04), awareness of weaning plans (6.09 vs 7.06, p=0.01p=0.01) and satisfaction with communication (5.28 vs 6.19, p=0.01p=0.01) were higher in Phase II. The intervention group found protocolised weaning useful in their practice (75%): this was scored significantly higher by junior and senior nurses than middle grade nurses (p=0.02p=0.02).

Conclusion

We conclude that nurse-directed protocolised-weaning had no effect on nurses’ views and perceptions due to the high level of satisfaction which encouraged nurses’ participation in weaning throughout. Control group changes are attributed to a ‘reactive effect’ from being study participants. Weaning protocols provide a uniform method of weaning practice and are particularly beneficial in providing safe guidance for junior staff.

Impact of sample preparation on mineralogical analysis of iron reactive barrier materials

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) of zero-valent iron (Fe0) are increasingly being used to remediate contaminated ground water. Corrosion of Fe0 filings and the formation of precipitates can occur when the PRB material comes in contact with ground water and may reduce the lifespan and effectiveness of the barrier. At present, there are no routine procedures for preparing and analyzing the mineral precipitates from Fe0 PRB material. These procedures are needed because mineralogical composition of corrosion products used to interpret the barrier processes can change with iron oxidation and sample preparation. The objectives of this study were (i) to investigate a method of preparing Fe0 reactive barrier material for mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD), and (ii) to identify Fe mineral phases and rates of transformations induced by different mineralogical preparation techniques. Materials from an in situ Fe0 PRB were collected by undisturbed coring and processed for XRD analysis after different times since sampling for three size fractions and by various drying treatments. We found that whole-sample preparation for analysis was necessary because mineral precipitates occurred within the PRB material in different size fractions of the samples. Green rusts quickly disappeared from acetone-dried samples and were not present in air-dried and oven-dried samples. Maghemite/magnetite content increased over time and in oven-dried samples, especially after heating to 105°C. We conclude that care must be taken during sample preparation of Fe0 PRB material, especially for detection of green rusts, to ensure accurate identification of minerals present within the barrier system.

Shaping the Future of Mental Health Policy and Legislation in Northern Ireland: The Impact of Service User and Professional Social Work Discourses

This paper explores the complex interrelationship between service user and professional social work discourses and provides a critical commentary on their respective contributions to the recent review of mental health policy and legislation in Northern Ireland. The analysis indicates that dominant trends in mental health care, as mediated through service structures and institutional identities, have tended to prioritize the more coercive aspects of the social work role and reinforce existing power inequalities with service users. It is argued that such developments underline the need for a ‘refocusing’ debate in mental health social work to consider how a more appropriate balance can be achieved between its participatory/empowering and regulatory/coercive functions. Whilst highlighting both congruence and dissonance between respective discourses, the paper concludes that opportunities exist within the current change process for service users and social workers to build closer alliances in working together to reconstruct practice, safeguard human rights and develop innovative alternatives to a traditional bio-medical model of treatment.

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.