Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO2. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO2, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.

Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: the effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function

Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSU) on the NOAA operational satellites have been the main source of near global temperature trend data above the lower stratosphere. They have been used extensively for comparison with model-derived trends. The SSU senses in the 15 micron band of CO2 and hence the weighting function is sensitive to changes in CO2 concentrations. The impact of this change in weighting function has been ignored in all recent trend analyses. We show that the apparent trends in global mean brightness temperature due to the change in weighting function vary from about -0.4 K/decade to 0.4 K/decade depending on the altitude sensed by the different SSU channels. For some channels, this apparent trend is of a similar size to the trend deduced from SSU data but ignoring the change in weighting function. In the mid-stratosphere, the revised trends are now significantly more negative and in better agreement with model-calculated trends.

Estimating surface CO2 fluxes from space-borne dry air mole fraction observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter

We have developed an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to estimate 8-day regional surface fluxes of CO2 from space-borne CO2 dry-air mole fraction observations (XCO2) and evaluate the approach using a series of synthetic experiments, in preparation for data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The 32-day duty cycle of OCO alternates every 16 days between nadir and glint measurements of backscattered solar radiation at short-wave infrared wavelengths. The EnKF uses an ensemble of states to represent the error covariances to estimate 8-day CO2 surface fluxes over 144 geographical regions. We use a 12×8-day lag window, recognising that XCO2 measurements include surface flux information from prior time windows. The observation operator that relates surface CO2 fluxes to atmospheric distributions of XCO2 includes: a) the GEOS-Chem transport model that relates surface fluxes to global 3-D distributions of CO2 concentrations, which are sampled at the time and location of OCO measurements that are cloud-free and have aerosol optical depths <0.3; and b) scene-dependent averaging kernels that relate the CO2 profiles to XCO2, accounting for differences between nadir and glint measurements, and the associated scene-dependent observation errors. We show that OCO XCO2 measurements significantly reduce the uncertainties of surface CO2 flux estimates. Glint measurements are generally better at constraining ocean CO2 flux estimates. Nadir XCO2 measurements over the terrestrial tropics are sparse throughout the year because of either clouds or smoke. Glint measurements provide the most effective constraint for estimating tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes by accurately sampling fresh continental outflow over neighbouring oceans. We also present results from sensitivity experiments that investigate how flux estimates change with 1) bias and unbiased errors, 2) alternative duty cycles, 3) measurement density and correlations, 4) the spatial resolution of estimated flux estimates, and 5) reducing the length of the lag window and the size of the ensemble. At the revision stage of this manuscript, the OCO instrument failed to reach its orbit after it was launched on 24 February 2009. The EnKF formulation presented here is also applicable to GOSAT measurements of CO2 and CH4.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

Decomposition in soil and chemical characteristics of pollen

The input to soils made by pollen and its subsequent mineralization has rarely been investigated from a soil microbiological point of view even though the small but significant quantities of C and N in pollen may make an important contribution to nutrient cycling. The relative resistance to decomposition of pollen exines (outer layers) has led to much of the focus of pollen in soil being on its preservation for archaeological and palaeo-ecological purposes. We have examined aspects of the chemical composition and decomposition of pollen from birch (Betula alba) and maize (Zea mays) in soil. The relatively large N contents, small C-to-N ratios and large water-soluble contents of pollen from both species indicated that they would be readily mineralized in soil. When added to soil and incubated at 16 degrees C an amount of C equivalent to 22-26% of the added pollen C was lost as CO2 within 22 days, with the Z. mays pollen decomposing faster. For B. alba pollen, the water-soluble fraction decomposed faster than the whole pollen and the insoluble fraction decomposed more slowly over 22 days. By contrast, there were no significant differences in the decomposition rates of the different fractions from Z. mays pollen. Solid-state C-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) revealed no gross chemical differences between the pollen of these two species, with strong resonances in the alkyl- and methyl-C region (0-45 p.p.m.) indicative of aliphatic compounds, the O-alkyl-C (60-90 p.p.m.) and the acetal- and ketal-C region (90-110 p.p.m.) indicative of polysaccharides, and the carbonyl-C region indicative of peptides and carboxylic acids. In addition, both pollens gave a small but distinct resonance at 55 p.p.m. attributed to N-alkyl-C. The resonances attributed to polysaccharides were lost completely or substantially reduced after decomposition.

Decomposition in soil and chemical characteristics of pollen

The input to soils made by pollen and its subsequent mineralization has rarely been investigated from a soil microbiological point of view even though the small but significant quantities of C and N in pollen may make an important contribution to nutrient cycling. The relative resistance to decomposition of pollen exines (outer layers) has led to much of the focus of pollen in soil being on its preservation for archaeological and palaeo-ecological purposes. We have examined aspects of the chemical composition and decomposition of pollen from birch (Betula alba) and maize (Zea mays) in soil. The relatively large N contents, small C-to-N ratios and large water-soluble contents of pollen from both species indicated that they would be readily mineralized in soil. When added to soil and incubated at 16 degrees C an amount of C equivalent to 22-26% of the added pollen C was lost as CO2 within 22 days, with the Z. mays pollen decomposing faster. For B. alba pollen, the water-soluble fraction decomposed faster than the whole pollen and the insoluble fraction decomposed more slowly over 22 days. By contrast, there were no significant differences in the decomposition rates of the different fractions from Z. mays pollen. Solid-state C-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) revealed no gross chemical differences between the pollen of these two species, with strong resonances in the alkyl- and methyl-C region (0-45 p.p.m.) indicative of aliphatic compounds, the O-alkyl-C (60-90 p.p.m.) and the acetal- and ketal-C region (90-110 p.p.m.) indicative of polysaccharides, and the carbonyl-C region indicative of peptides and carboxylic acids. In addition, both pollens gave a small but distinct resonance at 55 p.p.m. attributed to N-alkyl-C. The resonances attributed to polysaccharides were lost completely or substantially reduced after decomposition.

Quantifying carbon-cycle feedbacks

Perturbations to the carbon cycle could constitute large feedbacks on future changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. This paper demonstrates how carbon cycle feedback can be expressed in formally similar ways to climate feedback, and thus compares their magnitudes. The carbon cycle gives rise to two climate feedback terms: the concentration–carbon feedback, resulting from the uptake of carbon by land and ocean as a biogeochemical response to the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the climate–carbon feedback, resulting from the effect of climate change on carbon fluxes. In the earth system models of the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP), climate–carbon feedback on warming is positive and of a similar size to the cloud feedback. The concentration–carbon feedback is negative; it has generally received less attention in the literature, but in magnitude it is 4 times larger than the climate–carbon feedback and more uncertain. The concentration–carbon feedback is the dominant uncertainty in the allowable CO2 emissions that are consistent with a given CO2 concentration scenario. In modeling the climate response to a scenario of CO2 emissions, the net carbon cycle feedback is of comparable size and uncertainty to the noncarbon–climate response. To quantify simulated carbon cycle feedbacks satisfactorily, a radiatively coupled experiment is needed, in addition to the fully coupled and biogeochemically coupled experiments, which are referred to as coupled and uncoupled in C4MIP. The concentration–carbon and climate–carbon feedbacks do not combine linearly, and the concentration–carbon feedback is dependent on scenario and time.

Enantioselective Intramolecular Michael Addition of Nitronates onto Conjugated Esters: Access to Cyclic γ-Amino Acids with up to Three Stereocenters

A highly stereoselective synthesis of conformationally constrained cyclic γ-amino acids has been devised. The key step involves an intramolecular cyclization of a nitronate onto a conjugated ester, promoted by a bifunctional thiourea catalyst. This methodology has been successfully applied to generate a variety of γ-amino acids, including some containing three contiguous stereocenters, with very high diastereoselectivity and excellent enantioselectivity. It is postulated that an interaction that is key to the success of the process is the simultaneous coordination of the thiourea functionality to both the conjugated ester and the nitronate. Finally, the synthetic utility of these compounds is demonstrated in the synthesis of two dipeptides derived from the C- and N-termini.

Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

It is premature to include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes

The recent G8 Gleneagles climate statement signed on 8 July 2005 specifically mentions a determination to lessen the impact of aviation on climate [Gleneagles, 2005. The Gleneagles communique: climate change, energy and sustainable development. http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/PostG8_Gleneagles_Communique.pdf]. In January 2005 the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector ETS in the world, albeit currently limited only to CO2 emissions. At present the scheme makes no provision for aircraft emissions. However, the UK Government would like to see aircraft included in the ETS and plans to use its Presidencies of both the EU and G8 in 2005 to implement these schemes within the EU and perhaps internationally. Non-CO2 effects have been included in some policy-orientated studies of the impact of aviation but we argue that the inclusion of such effects in any such ETS scheme is premature; we specifically argue that use of the Radiative Forcing Index for comparing emissions from different sources is inappropriate and that there is currently no metric for such a purpose that is likely to enable their inclusion in the near future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.