Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

Pyrolysis-Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry of Soil Organic Matter Extracted from a Brazilian Mangrove and Spanish Salt Marshes

The soil organic matter (SOM) extracted under different vegetation types from a Brazilian mangrove (Pai Matos Island, Sao Paulo State) and from three Spanish salt marshes (Betanzos Ria and Corrubedo Natural Parks, Galicia, and the Albufera Natural Park, Valencia) was investigated by pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS). The chemical variation was larger in SOM from the Spanish marshes than in the SOM of the Brazilian mangroves, possibly because the marshes included sites with both tidal and nontidal variation, whereas the mangrove forest underwent just tidal variation. Thus, plant-derived organic matter was better preserved under permanently anoxic environments. Moreover, given the low number of studied profiles and sedimentary-vegetation sequences in both areas, depth trends remain unclear. The chemical data also allow distinction between the contributions of woody and nonwoody vegetation inputs. Soil organic matter decomposition was found to cause: (i) a decrease in lignin contents and a relative increase in aliphatics; (ii) an increase in short-chain aliphatics at the expense of longer ones; (iii) a loss of odd-over-even dominance in alkanes and alkenes; and (iv) an increase in microbial products, including proteins, sterols, short-chain fatty acids, and alkanes. Pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry is a useful tool to study the behavior and composition of SOM in wetland environments such as mangroves and salt marshes. Additional profiles need to be studied for each vegetation type, however, to improve the interpretability of the chemical data.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Body weight as an indicator of fat-free mass in active elderly women

Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Within-stand and seasonal variations of specific leaf area in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation in the Republic of Congo

Specific leaf area (SLA; m(leaf)(2) kg(leaf)(-1)) is a key ecophysiological parameter influencing leaf physiology, photosynthesis, and whole plant carbon gain. Both individual tree-based models and other forest process-based models are generally highly sensitive to this parameter, but information on its temporal or within-stand variability is still scarce. In a 2-4-year-old Eucalyptus plantation in Congo, prone to seasonal drought, the within-stand and seasonal variability in SLA were investigated by means of destructive sampling carried out at 2-month intervals, over a 2-year period. Within-crown vertical gradients of SLA were small. Highly significant relationships were found between tree-average SLA (SLA(t)) and tree size (tree height, H(t), or diameter at breast height, DBH): SLA(t) ranged from about 9 m(2) kg(-1) for dominant trees to about 14-15 m(2) kg(-1) for the smallest trees. The decrease in SLA(t) with increasing tree size was accurately predicted from DBH using power functions. Stand-average SLA varied by about 20% during the year, with lowest values at the end of the 5-month dry season, and highest values about 2-3 months after the onset of the wet season. Variability in leaf water status according to tree size and season is discussed as a possible determinant of both the within-stand and seasonal variations in SM. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF RED CURRANTS (RIBES RUBRUM L.), BLACK CURRANTS (RIBES NIGRUM L.), RED AND GREEN GOOSEBERRIES (RIBES UVA-CRISPA) FOR POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT OF TYPE 2 DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION USING IN VITRO MODELS

Red currants (Ribes rubrum L.), black currants (Ribes nigrum L.), red and green gooseberries (Ribes uva-crispa) were evaluated for the total phenolics, antioxidant capacity based on 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging assay and functionality such as in vitro inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potential management of hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 3.2 (green gooseberries) to 13.5 (black currants) mg/g fruit fresh weight. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds were quercetin derivatives (black currants and green gooseberries) and chlorogenic acid (red currants and red gooseberries). Red currants had the highest alpha-glucosidase, alpha-amylase and ACE inhibitory activities. Therefore red currants could be good dietary sources with potential antidiabetes and antihypertension functionality to compliment overall dietary management of early stages of type 2 diabetes.

Changes in bone mass, biomechanical properties, and microarchitecture of calcium- and iron-deficient rats fed diets supplemented with inulin-type fructans

Feeding mineral-deficient diets enhances absorptive efficiency as an attempt of the body to compensate for the lack of an essential nutrient. Under certain circumstances, it does not succeed, and nutritional deficiency is produced Our hypothesis was that mulin-type fructans (ITF), which arc known to affect mineral absorption, could increase Ca and Fe bioavailability in Ca- and Fe-deficient rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 48, 4 weeks old) were assigned to I of 8 groups derived from 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design with 2 levels of added Fe (0 and 35 mg/kg), Ca (0 and 5 g/kg), and ITF (0 and 100 g/kg) for 33 days. The Fe status (hemoglobin, serum Fe, total Fe-binding capacity, transferrin saturation, liver minerals) was evaluated. Tibia minerals (Ca, Mg, and Zn), bone strength, and histomorphometry were determined In nondeficient rats, ITF supplementation did not affect Fe status or organ minerals, with the exception of tibia Mg Moreover, ITF improved bone resilience and led to a reduction in eroded surface per body surface and number of osteoclasts per area In Ca-deficient rats, ITF increased liver (Fe and Zn) and tibia (Zn) mineral levels but impaired tibia Mg, yield load, and resilience. In conclusion, ITF worsened the tibia Mg levels and elastic properties when supplemented in Ca-deficient diets In contrast, although bone Ca was not affected in nondeficient rats under the present experimental conditions, bone quality improved, as demonstrated by a moderate reduction in femur osteoclast resorption and significant increases in tibia Mg content and elasticity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential of Ginkgo biloba L. leaves in the management of hyperglycemia and hypertension using in vitro models

Leaves from four different Ginkgo biloba L. trees (1 and 2 - females; 3 and 4 - males), grown at the same conditions, were collected during a period of 5 months (from June to October, 2007). Water and 12% ethanol extracts were analyzed for total phenolics content, antioxidant activity, phenolic profile, and the potential in vitro inhibitory effects on alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme (ACE) enzymes related to the management of diabetes and hypertension. The results indicated a significant difference among the trees in all functional benefits evaluated in the leaf extracts and also found important seasonal variation related to the same functional parameters. In general, the aqueous extracts had higher total phenolic content than the ethanolic extracts. Also, no correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. In relation to the ACE inhibition, only ethanolic extracts had inhibitory activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functionality of bioactive compounds in Brazilian strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa Duch.) cultivars: Evaluation of hyperglycemia and hypertension potential using in vitro models

Fruits of seven fully ripened strawberry cultivars grown in Brazil (Dover, Camp Dover, Camarosa, Sweet Charlie, Toyonoka, Oso Grande, and Piedade) were evaluated for total phenolics, antioxidant activity based on DPPH radical scavenging assay, and functionality such as inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potentially managing hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 966 to 1571 mu g of gallic acid/g of fruit fresh weight for Toyonoka and Dover, respectively. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds in aqueous extracts of strawberries were ellagic acid, quercetin, and chlorogenic acid. Strawberries had high alpha-glucosidase inhibitory activity. However, alpha-amylase inhibitory activity was very low in all cultivars. This suggested that strawberries could be considered as a potential dietary source with anti-hyperglycemic potential. The evaluated cultivars had no significant ACE inhibitory activity, reflecting low anti-hypertensive potential.

Determination of eight fatty acid ethyl esters in meconium samples by headspace solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

A number of fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEEs) have recently been detected in meconium samples. Several of these FAEEs have been evaluated as possible biomarkers for in utero ethanol exposure. In the present study, a method was optimized and validated for the simultaneous determination of eight FAEEs (ethyl laurate, ethyl myristate, ethyl palmitate, ethyl palmitoleate, ethyl stearate, ethyl oleate, ethyl linoleate and ethyl arachidonate) in meconium samples. FAEEs were extracted by headspace solid-phase microextraction. Analyte detection and quantification were carried out using GC-MS operated in chemical ionization mode. The corresponding D5-ethyl esters were synthesized and used as internal standards. The LOQ and LOD for each analyte were <150 and <100 ng/g, respectively. The method showed good linearity (r(2)>0.98) in the concentration range studied (LOQ -2000 ng/g). The intra- and interday imprecision, given by the RSD of the method, was lower than 15% for all FAEEs studied. The validated method was applied to 63 authentic specimens. FAEEs could be detected in alcohol-exposed newborns ( >600 ng/g cumulative concentration). Interestingly, FAEEs could also be detected in some non-exposed newborns, although the concentrations were much lower than those measured in exposed cases.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for detection of anatoxin-a(s) by liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry

Anatoxin-a(s) is a potent irreversible inhibitor of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase with a unique N-hydroxyguanidine methylphosphate ester chemical structure. Determination of this toxin in environmental samples is hampered by the lack of specific methods for its detection. Using the toxic strain of Anabaena lemmermani PH-160 B as positive control, the fragmentation characteristics of anatoxin-a(s) under collision-induced dissociation conditions have been investigated and new LC-MS/MS methods proposed. Recommended ion transitions for correct detection of this toxin are 253 > 58, 253 > 159, 235 > 98 and 235 > 96. Chromatographic separation is better achieved under HILIC conditions employing a ZIC-HILIC column. This method was used to confirm for the first time the production of anatoxin-a(s) by strains of Anabaena oumiana ITEP-025 and ITEP-026. Considering no standard solutions are commercially available, our results will be of significant use for the correct identification of this toxin by LC-MS/MS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mass Spectrometric Analysis of a Cyclic 7,8-Butanoguanine Adduct of N-Nitrosopyrrolidine: Comparison to Other N-Nitrosopyrrolidine Adducts in Rat Hepatic DNA

The well established rat hepatocarcinogen N-nitrosopytrolidine (NPYR, 1) requires metabolic activation to DNA adducts to express its carcinogenic activity. Among the NPYR-DNA adducts that have been identified, the cyclic 7,8-butanoguanine adduct 2-amino-6,7,8,9-tetrahydro-9-hydroxypyrido[2,1-f]purine-4(3H)-one (6) has been quantified using moderately sensitive methods, but its levels have never been compared to those of other DNA adducts of NPYR in rat hepatic DNA. Therefore, in this study, we developed a sensitive new LC-ESI-MS/MS-SRM method for the quantitation of adduct 6 and compared its levels to those of several other NPYR-DNA adducts formed by different mechanisms. The new method was shown to be accurate and precise, with good recoveries and low fmol detection limits. Rats were treated with NPYR by gavage at doses of 46, 92, or 184 mg/kg body weight and sacrificed 16 h later. Hepatic DNA was isolated and analyzed for NPYR-DNA adducts. Adduct 6 was by far the most prevalent, with levels ranging from about 900-3000 mu mol/mol Gua and responsive to dose. Levels of adducts formed from crotonaldehyde, a metabolite of NPYR, were about 0.2-0.9 mu mol/mol dGuo, while those of adducts resulting from reaction with DNA of tetrahydrofuranyl-like intermediates were in the range of 0.01-4 mu mol/mol deoxyribonucleoside. The results of this study demonstrate that, among typical NPYR-DNA adducts, adduct 6 is easily the most abundant in hepatic DNA. Since previous studies have shown that it can be detected in the urine of NPYR-treated rats, the results suggest that it is a potential candidate as a biomarker for assessing human exposure to and metabolic activation of NPYR.