Electoral Systems and Ethnic Conciliation: A Structured, Focused Analysis of Vote-Pooling in Northern Ireland Elections 1998-2011

This research project examines the role of electoral system rules in affecting the extent of conciliatory behavior and cross-ethnic coalition making in Northern Ireland. It focuses on the role of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in shaping party and voter incentives in a post-conflict divided society. The research uses a structured, focused comparison of the four electoral cycles since the Belfast Agreement of 1998. This enables a systematic examination of each electoral cycle using a common set of criteria focused on conciliation and cross-ethnic coalition making. Whilst preference voting is assumed to benefit moderate candidates, in Northern Ireland centrist and multi-ethnic parties outside of the dominant ethnic communities have received little electoral success. In Northern Ireland the primary effect of STV has not been to encourage inter-communal voting but to facilitate intra-community and intra-party moderation. STV has encouraged the moderation of the historically extreme political parties in each of the ethnic bloc. Patterns across electoral cycles suggest that party elites from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein have moderated their policy positions due to the electoral system rules. Therefore they have pursued lower-preference votes from within their ethnic bloc but in doing so have marginalized parties of a multi-ethnic or non-ethnic orientation.

Crisis política y juventud en España: el declive del bipartidismo electoral

This paper shows the increasing trend of Spanish young people towards non-conventional mechanisms of political expression, in a crisis context which has reduced its reliance on traditional political actors. As an alternative to bipartisanship, political participation moves towards increased interest and attention to new players, such as emergent political parties. Using a covariance structural model, factors such as political activism, awareness and understanding of country problems, and trust in the political system, are explored in order to explain an electoral behavior that is undergoing deep changes.

El año de la primera campaña de vacunación oral contra la poliomielitis según la prensa de Santander (1963)

La poliomielitis emergió como una devastadora epidemia en los países desarrollados durante la primera mitad del siglo XX. Los hallazgos de una vacuna inactivada por Salk (1955) y otra atenuada por Sabin (1957) ofrecieron una solución para eliminarla, coincidiendo con el periodo de mayor incidencia de la enfermedad en España (1950-1963). La respuesta de las autoridades sanitarias españolas no se concretó hasta el año de 1963, cuando el Ministerio de Fomento organizó una campaña nacional de inmunización con vacuna inactivada. Estudios epidemiológicos realizados por investigadores de la Escuela Nacional de Sanidad llevaron al convencimiento de utilizar la vacuna atenuada y a un cambio de estrategia que originó en otoño del mismo año una nueva campaña nacional a cargo del Ministerio de la Gobernación. Este estudio de caso analiza la difusión mediática de ambas campañas en Santander, mediante una revisión de las noticias de prensa publicadas en 2 diarios de ámbito provincial.

Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism

While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of their importance for political parties that increasingly rely on professionalized campaign techniques. Other scholars have expressed concern about the decline of party membership. They emphasize the fact that party members continue to function as an important linkage mechanism providing a structural alignment between the party and society (and thus also to potential voters). By means of an election forecasting model for Belgium, we test whether party membership figures still can be related to election results. Results show that party membership has a strong effect on election results, and furthermore, that this relation does not weaken during the period under investigation (1981-2010). The analysis also demonstrates that forecasting models can also be used in a complex multiparty system like Belgium.