924 resultados para Building Simulation, Future Weather Data, Global Warming
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We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
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A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (
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In the New Jersey Coastal Plain, a silty to clayey sedimentary unit (the Marlboro Formation) represents deposition during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). This interval is remarkably different from the glauconitic sands and silts of the underlying Paleocene Vincentown and overlying Eocene Manasquan Formation. We integrate new and published stable isotope, biostratigraphic, lithostratigraphic and ecostratigraphic records, constructing a detailed time frame for the PETM along a depth gradient at core sites Clayton, Wilson Lake, Ancora and Bass River (updip to downdip). The onset of the PETM, marked by the base of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE), is within the gradual transition from glauconitic silty sands to silty clay, and represented fully at the updip sites (Wilson Lake and Clayton). The CIE "core" interval is expanded at the updip sites, but truncated. The CIE "core" is complete at the Bass River and Ancora sites, where the early part of the recovery is present (most complete at Ancora). The extent to which the PETM is expressed in the sediments is highly variable between sites, with a significant unconformity at the base of the overlying lower Eocene sediments. Our regional correlation framework provides an improved age model, allowing better understanding of the progression of environmental changes during the PETM. High-resolution benthic foraminiferal data document the change from a sediment-starved shelf setting to a tropical, river-dominated mud-belt system during the PETM, probably due to intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The excellent preservation of foraminifera during the PETM and the lack of severe benthic extinction suggest there was no extreme ocean acidification in shelf settings.
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Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.
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A distinctive low-carbonate interval interrupts the continuous limestone-marl alternation of the deep-marine Gorrondatxe section at the early Lutetian (middle Eocene) C21r/C21n Chron transition. The interval is characterized by increased abundance of turbidites and kaolinite, a 3 per mil decline in the bulk d13C record, a >1 per mil decline in benthic foraminiferal d13C followed by a gradual recovery, a distinct deterioration in foraminiferal preservation, high proportions of warm-water planktic foraminifera and opportunistic benthic foraminifera, and reduced trace fossil and benthic foraminiferal diversity, thus recording a significant environmental perturbation. The onset of the perturbation correlates with the C21r-H6 event recently defined in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which caused a 2°C warming of the seafloor and increased carbonate dissolution. The perturbation was likely caused by the input of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, thus presenting many of the hallmarks of Paleogene hyperthermal deposits. However, from the available data it is not possible to conclusively state that the event was associated with extreme global warming. Based on our analysis, the perturbation lasted 226 kyr, from 47.44 to 47.214 Ma, and although this duration suggests that the triggering mechanism may have been similar to that of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the magnitude of the carbon input and the subsequent environmental perturbation during the early Lutetian event were not as severe as in the PETM.
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Size measurements of the calcareous nannofossil taxon Discoaster multiradiatus were carried out across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in Ocean Drilling Program Holes 690B (Maud Rise, Weddell Sea) and 1209B (Shatsky Rise, Pacific Ocean). Morphometric investigations show that D. multiradiatus specimens are generally larger at ODP Site 1209 than at ODP Site 690. A limited increase in size of D. multiradiatus is recorded at ODP Site 1209, whereas significant enlargements characterize ODP Site 690. Preservation is comparable at both sites: nannofossils are moderately preserved with some evidence of etching/overgrowth in the PETM interval. Yet, D. multiradiatus variations do not correlate with preservation state and morphometric data most likely represent primary signals rather than diagenetic artifacts. There is a direct relationship between D. multiradiatus size and paleotemperatures: largest specimens are coeval with global warming associated with the PETM, inferred to result from excess atmospheric CO2 due to (partial) oxidation of massive quantities of methane. Size increases and largest specimens of D. multiradiatus occur at different stratigraphic levels within PETM at ODP Sites 690 and 1209. A marked shift in diameter size was observed at the onset and peak of the Carbon Isotopic Excursion (CIE) at ODP Site 690, but only at the end of CIE and initial recovery interval at ODP Site 1209. This diachroneity is puzzling, but indeed correlates well with reconstructed changes in surface and thermocline water masses temperature and salinity in the PETM interval at low and high latitudes. The presumed high concentrations of carbon dioxide seem to have not influenced the morphometry of D. multiradiatus. The major size increase of D. multiradiatus in the CIE of ODP Site 690 could represent the migration of larger-sized allochtonus specimens that moved from peri-equatorial/subtropical areas to higher latitudes during the warmest interval of the PETM, although no direct evidence of distinct populations/subpopulations has been obtained from the frequency diagrams. As a result, we infer that D. multiradiatus is a proxy of water masses stratification and might be used for deriving temperature-salinity-nutrient conditions in the mixed layer and thermocline and their dynamics.
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A mesocosm experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of reduced pH and elevated temperature on an intact marine invertebrate community. Standardised faunal communities, collected from the extreme low intertidal zone using artificial substrate units, were exposed to one of eight nominal treatments (four pH levels: 8.0, 7.7, 7.3 and 6.7, crossed with two temperature levels: 12 and 16°C). After 60 days exposure communities showed significant changes in structure and lower diversity in response to reduced pH. The response to temperature was more complex. At higher pH levels (8.0 and 7.7) elevated temperature treatments contained higher species abundances and diversity than the lower temperature treatments. In contrast, at lower pH levels (7.3 and 6.7), elevated temperature treatments had lower species abundances and diversity than lower temperature treatments. The species losses responsible for these changes in community structure and diversity were not randomly distributed across the different phyla examined. Molluscs showed the greatest reduction in abundance and diversity in response to low pH and elevated temperature, whilst annelid abundance and diversity was mostly unaffected by low pH and was higher at the elevated temperature. The arthropod response was between these two extremes with moderately reduced abundance and diversity at low pH and elevated temperature. Nematode abundance increased in response to low pH and elevated temperature, probably due to the reduction of ecological constraints, such as predation and competition, caused by a decrease in macrofaunal abundance. This community-based mesocosm study supports previous suggestions, based on observations of direct physiological impacts, that ocean acidification induced changes in marine biodiversity will be driven by differential vulnerability within and between different taxonomical groups. This study also illustrates the importance of considering indirect effects that occur within multispecies assemblages when attempting to predict the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on marine communities.
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In the coming decades, artificial defence structures will increase in importance worldwide for the protection of coasts against the impacts of global warming. However, the ecological effects of such structures on the natural surroundings remain unclear. We investigated the impact of experimentally introduced tetrapod fields on the demersal fish community in a hard-bottom area in the southern North Sea. The results indicated a significant decrease in fish abundance in the surrounding area caused by migration effects towards the artificial structures. Diversity (HB) and evenness (E) values exhibited greater variation after the introduction of the tetrapods. Additionally, a distinct increase in young-of-the-year (YOY) fish was observed near the structures within the second year after introduction. We suggest that the availability of adequate refuges in combination with additional food resources provided by the artificial structures has a highly species-specific attraction effect. However, these findings also demonstrate that our knowledge regarding the impact of artificial structures on temperate fish communities is still too limited to truly understand the ecological processes that are initiated by the introduction of artificial structures. Long-term investigations and additional experimental in situ work worldwide will be indispensable for a full understanding of the mechanisms by which coastal defence structures interact with the coastal environment.
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Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32- to 34-year period, in three 50 x 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009-2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (>=3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.
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Central waters of the North Atlantic are fundamental for ventilation of the upper ocean and are also linked to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we show based on benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios, that during times of enhanced melting from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) between 9.0-8.5 thousand years before present (ka) the production of central waters weakened the upper AMOC resulting in a cooling over the Northern Hemisphere. Centered at 8.54 ± 0.2 ka and 8.24 ± 0.1 ka our dataset records two ~150-year cooling events in response to the drainage of Lake Agassiz/Ojibway, indicating early slow-down of the upper AMOC in response to the initial freshwater flux into the subpolar gyre (SPG) followed by a more severe weakening of both the upper and lower branches of the AMOC at 8.2 ka. These results highlight the sensitivity of regional North Atlantic climate change to the strength of central-water overturning and exemplify the impact of both gradual and abrupt freshwater fluxes on eastern SPG surface water convection. In light of the possible future increase in Greenland Ice Sheet melting due to global warming these findings may help us to better constrain and possibly predict future North Atlantic climate change.
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Planktonic foraminifers from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 182, Holes 1126B and 1126C, 1128B and 1128C, 1130A and 1130B, 1132B, and 1134A and 1134B confirm the neritic record that during the early Miocene the Great Australian Bight region was in a cool-temperate regime with abundant Globoturborotalita woodi. Warm marine environments started to develop in the later part of the early Miocene, and the region became warm temperate to subtropical in the early middle Miocene with abundant Globigerinoides, Orbulina, and Globorotalia, corresponding to global warming at the Miocene climatic optimum. Fluctuations between cool- and warm-temperate conditions prevailed during the late Miocene, as indicated by abundant Globoconella conoidea and Menardella spp. A major change in planktonic foraminiferal assemblages close to the Miocene/Pliocene boundary not only drove many Miocene species into extinction but also brought about such new species as Globorotalia crassaformis and Globoconella puncticulata. Warm-temperate environments continued into the early and mid-Pliocene before being replaced by cooler conditions, supporting numerous Globoconella inflata and Globigerina quinqueloba. Based on data from this study and published results from the Australia-New Zealand region, we established a local planktonic foraminifer zonation scheme for separating the southern Australian Neogene (SAN) into Zones SAN1 to SAN19 characterizing the Miocene and Zones SAN20 to SAN25 characterizing the Pliocene. The Neogene sections from the Great Australian Bight are bounded by hiatuses of ~0.5 to >3 m.y. in duration, although poor core recovery in some holes obscured a proper biostratigraphic resolution. A total of 15 hiatuses, numbered 1 to 15, were identified as synchronous events from the base of the Miocene to the lower part of the Pleistocene. We believe that these are local manifestations of major third-order boundaries at about (1) 23.8, (2) 22.3, (3) 20.5, (4) 18.7, (5) 16.4, (6) 14.8, (7) 13.5, (8) 11.5, (9) 9.3, (10) 7.0, (11) 6.0, (12) 4.5, (13) 3.5, (14) 2.5, and (15) 1.5 Ma, respectively. This hiatus-bounded Neogene succession samples regional transgressions and stages of southern Australia and reveals its stepwise evolutionary history.
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The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as a barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming (Graversen et al., 2008, doi:10.1038/nature06502) and therefore records of past Arctic change are critical for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the Late Cretaceous epoch (65-99 million years ago), yet records from such times may yield important clues to Arctic Ocean behaviour in near-future warmer climates. Here we present a seasonally resolved Cretaceous sedimentary record from the Alpha ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This palaeo-sediment trap provides new insight into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as was previously hypothesized (Kitchell and Clark, 1982, doi:10.1016/0031-0182(82)90087-6). Rather, production occurred within a stratified water column, involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific subtropical gyre (Dore et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.10.002), or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels (Kemp et al., 1999, doi:10.1038/18001). With increased CO2 levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean (Sarmiento et al., 1998, doi:10.1038/30455), this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer, but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter, supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean (Falcon-Lang et al., 2004, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2004.05.016; Amiot et al., 2004, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.07.015; Otto-Bliesner et al., 2002, doi:10.1029/2001JD000821), rather than recent suggestions of a 15 °C mean annual temperature at this time (Jenkyns et al., 2004, doi:10.1038/nature03143).
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Two recently drilled Caribbean sites contain expanded sedimentary records of the late Paleocene thermal maximum, a dramatic global warming event that occurred at ca. 55 Ma. The records document significant environmental changes, including deep-water oxygen deficiency and a mass extinction of deep-sea fauna, intertwined with evidence for a major episode of explosive volcanism. We postulate that this volcanism initiated a reordering of ocean circulation that resulted in rapid global warming and dramatic changes in the Earth's environment.
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Pelagic sediments recording an extreme and short-lived global warming event, the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM), were recovered from Hole 999B (Colombian Basin) and Holes 1001A and 1001B (lower Nicaraguan Rise) in the Caribbean Sea during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 165. The LPTM consists of a 0.3-0.97 m calcareous claystone to claystone horizon. High-resolution downhole logging (Formation MicroScanner [FMS]), standard downhole logs (resistivity, velocity, density, natural gamma ray, and geochemical log), and non-destructive chemical and physical property (multisensor core logger [MSCL] and X-ray fluorescence [XRF] core scanner) data were used to identify composite sections from parallel holes and to record sedimentological and environmental changes associated with the LPTM. Downhole logging data indicate an abrupt and distinct difference in physical and chemical properties that extend for tens of meters above and below the LPTM. These observations indicate a rapid environmental change at the LPTM, which persists beyond the LPTM anomaly. Comparisons of gamma-ray attenuation porosity evaluator (GRAPE) densities from MSCL logging on split cores with FMS resistivity values allows core-to-log correlation with a high degree of accuracy. High-resolution magnetic susceptibility measurements of the cores are compared with elemental concentrations (e.g., Fe, Ca) analyzed by high-resolution XRF scanning. The high-resolution data obtained from several detailed core and downhole logging methods are the key to the construction of composite sections, the correlation of both adjacent holes and distant sites, and core-log integration. These continuous-depth series reveal the LPTM as a multiphase event with a nearly instantaneous onset, followed by a much different set of physical and chemical conditions of short duration, succeeded by a longer transition to a new, more permanent set of environmental circumstances. The estimated duration of these 'phases' are consistent with paleontological and isotopic studies of the LPTM