The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models

Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface-air-temperature change is nonlinear in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative – i.e. the effective climate sensitivity increases – as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM-mean approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the topics (30N-30S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving pattern of surface warming is confirmed using the HadGEM2 and HadCM3 atmosphere GCMs (AGCMs). With monthly evolving sea-surface-temperatures and sea-ice prescribed from its AOGCM counterpart each AGCM reproduces the time-varying feedbacks, but when a fixed pattern of warming is prescribed the radiative response is linear with global temperature change or nearly so. We also demonstrate that the regression and fixed-SST methods for evaluating effective radiative forcing are in principle different, because rapid SST adjustment when CO2 is changed can produce a pattern of surface temperature change with zero global mean but non-zero change in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (~ -0.5 Wm-2 in HadCM3).

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.

Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability

Instrumental observations, palaeo-proxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviours mean that the precise nature and mechanisms of this variability are unclear. Here, we analyse an exceptionally large multi-model ensemble of 42 present-generation climate models to test whether NASPG mean state biases systematically affect the representation of decadal variability. Temperature and salinity biases in the Labrador Sea co-vary and influence whether density variability is controlled by temperature or salinity variations. Ocean horizontal resolution is a good predictor of the biases and the location of the dominant dynamical feedbacks within the NASPG. However, we find no link to the spectral characteristics of the variability. Our results suggest that the mean state and mechanisms of variability within the NASPG are not independent. This represents an important caveat for decadal predictions using anomaly-assimilation methods.

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

ESTIMATING SENSORY SHELF LIFE OF CHOCOLATE AND CARROT CUPCAKES USING ACCEPTANCE TESTS

This study determined the sensory shelf life of a commercial brand of chocolate and carrot cupcakes, aiming at increasing the current 120 days of shelf life to 180. Appearance, texture, flavor and overall quality of cakes stored at six different storage times were evaluated by 102 consumers. The data were analyzed by analysis of variance and linear regression. For both flavors, the texture presented a greater loss in acceptance during the storage period, showing an acceptance mean close to indifference on the hedonic scale at 120 days. Nevertheless, appearance, flavor and overall quality stayed acceptable up to 150 days. The end of shelf life was estimated at about 161 days for chocolate cakes and 150 days for carrot cakes. This study showed that the current 120 days of shelf life can be extended to 150 days for carrot cake and to 160 days for chocolate cake. However, the 180 days of shelf life desired by the company were not achieved. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS This research shows the adequacy of using sensory acceptance tests to determine the shelf life of two food products (chocolate and carrot cupcakes). This practical application is useful because the precise determination of the shelf life of a food product is of vital importance for its commercial success. The maximum storage time should always be evaluated in the development or reformulation of new products, changes in packing or storage conditions. Once the physical-chemical and microbiological stability of a product is guaranteed, sensorial changes that could affect consumer acceptance will determine the end of the shelf life of a food product. Thus, the use of sensitive and reliable methods to estimate the sensory shelf life of a product is very important. Findings show the importance of determining the shelf life of each product separately and to avoid using the shelf time estimated for a specific product on other, similar products.

Microbiological Shelf Life of Pasteurized Milk in Bottle and Pouch

Shelf life of pasteurized milk in Brazil ranges from 3 to 8 d, mainly due to poor cold chain conditions that prevail throughout the country and subject the product to repeated and/or severe temperature abuse. This study evaluated the influence of storage temperature on the microbiological stability of homogenized whole pasteurized milk (75 degrees C/15 s) packaged in high-density polyethylene (HDPE) bottle and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) pouch, both monolayer materials pigmented with titanium dioxide (TiO(2)). The storage temperatures investigated were 2, 4, 9, 14, and 16 degrees C. Microbiological evaluation was based on mesophilic and psychrotrophic counts with 7 log CFU/mL and 6 log CFU/mL, respectively, set as upper limits of acceptability for maintaining the quality of milk. The microbiological stability for pasteurized milk packaged in HDPE bottle and stored at 2, 4, 9, 14, and 16 degrees C was estimated at 43, 36, 8, 5, and 3 d, respectively. For milk samples packaged in LDPE pouch, shelf life was estimated at 37, 35, 7, 3, and 2 d, respectively. The determination of Q(10) and z values demonstrated that storage temperature has a greater influence on microbiological shelf life of pasteurized milk packaged in LDPE pouch compared to HDPE bottle. Based on the results of this study, HDPE bottle was better for storing pasteurized milk as compared to LDPE pouch.

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of Sao Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of Sao Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature (T), web-bulb temperature (Tw), surface atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of Sao Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16: 00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 degrees C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5mm day(-1) while the NTDs had 4 mm day(-1). Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn`t a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of Sao Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B. V.

Evidence for the conspecificity of Palisada papillosa with P. perforata (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) from the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean on the basis of morphological and molecular analyses

Morphological and molecular studies were carried out on Palisada papillosa and P. perforata from the Canary Islands (type locality of P. perforata), Mexico and Brazil. The two species have been distinguished by features of their external morphology such as size and degree of compactness of the thalli, presence or absence of arcuate branches, branching pattern and basal system. A detailed morphological comparison between these taxa showed that none of the vegetative anatomical or reproductive characters was sufficient to separate these species. The presence or absence of cortical cells in a palisade-like arrangement, also previously used to. distinguish these species, is not applicable. The species present all characters typical of the genus, and both share production of the first pericentral cell underneath the basal cell of the trichoblast, production of two fertile pericentral cells (the second and the third additional, the first remaining sterile), spermatangial branches produced from one of two laterals on the suprabasal cell of trichoblasts, and the procarpbearing segment with four pericentral cells. Details of the procarp are described for the species for the first time. The phylogenetic position of these species was inferred by analysis of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences from 39 taxa, using one other Rhodomelacean taxon and two Ceramiaceae as outgroups. Relationships within the clade formed by P. papillosa and P. perforata have not been resolved due to the low level of genetic variation in their rbcL sequences (0-0.4%). Considering this and the morphological similarities, we conclude that P. papillosa is a taxonomic synonym of P. perforata. The phylogenetic analyses also supported the nomenclatural transfer of two species of Chondrophycus to Palisada, namely, P. patentiramea (Montagne) Cassano, Senties, Gil-Rodriguez & M.T. Fujii comb. nov. and P. thuyoides (Kutzing) Cassano, Senties, Gil-Rodriguez & M.T. Fujii comb. nov.

Statistical coupling analysis of aspartic proteinases based on crystal structures of the Trichoderma reesei enzyme and its complex with pepstatin A

The crystal structures of an aspartic proteinase from Trichoderma reesei (TrAsP) and of its complex with a competitive inhibitor, pepstatin A, were solved and refined to crystallographic R-factors of 17.9% (R(free)=21.2%) at 1.70 angstrom resolution and 15.81% (R(free) = 19.2%) at 1.85 angstrom resolution, respectively. The three-dimensional structure of TrAsP is similar to structures of other members of the pepsin-like family of aspartic proteinases. Each molecule is folded in a predominantly beta-sheet bilobal structure with the N-terminal and C-terminal domains of about the same size. Structural comparison of the native structure and the TrAsP-pepstatin complex reveals that the enzyme undergoes an induced-fit, rigid-body movement upon inhibitor binding, with the N-terminal and C-terminal lobes tightly enclosing the inhibitor. Upon recognition and binding of pepstatin A, amino acid residues of the enzyme active site form a number of short hydrogen bonds to the inhibitor that may play an important role in the mechanism of catalysis and inhibition. The structures of TrAsP were used as a template for performing statistical coupling analysis of the aspartic protease family. This approach permitted, for the first time, the identification of a network of structurally linked residues putatively mediating conformational changes relevant to the function of this family of enzymes. Statistical coupling analysis reveals coevolved continuous clusters of amino acid residues that extend from the active site into the hydrophobic cores of each of the two domains and include amino acid residues from the flap regions, highlighting the importance of these parts of the protein for its enzymatic activity. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The hand of God is over their hands (Q. 48:10) : on the notion of covenant in al-Ṭabarī’s account of Karbalāʾ

This article is an analysis of the story of the killing of Ḥusayn b. ʿAlī at Karbalāʾ in 61/680, as it is presented by Abū Jaʿfar Muḥammad b. Jarīr al-Ṭabarī (d. 310/923). The main argument is that the notion of the divine covenant, which permeates the Qur’an, constitutes a framework through which al-Ṭabarī views this event. The Qur’anic idea of the covenant is read in structural/thematic continuity with the Hebrew Bible account of the covenant between Yahweh and the Hebrew people, which has, in turn, been traced back in its basic form to Late Bronze Era treaties between rulers and their vassals.   The present study focusses on four speeches ascribed to Ḥusayn during the encounter he and his group had with the vanguard of the Kūfan army led by al-Ḥurr. These are analysed in accordance with their use of Qur’anic covenant vocabulary. They are also categorised within the broader framework of the eight standard characteristics of Ancient West Asian and Biblical covenants, as presented by George Mendenhall and Gary Herion, which have recently been developed in a Qur’anic context by Rosalind Ward Gwynne. This article argues that al-Ṭabarī’s Karbalāʾ narrative presents the pact of loyalty to Ḥusayn as a clear extension of the divine covenant.

Development of a quality index method (QIM) sensory scheme and study of shelf-life of ice-stored blackspot seabream (Pagellus bogaraveo)

The aim of this work was to develop a quality index method (QIM) scheme for whole ice-boxed refrigerated blackspot seabream and to perform shelf-life evaluations, using sensory analysis, GR Torrymeter measurements and bacterial counts of specific spoilage organisms (SSO) during chilled storage. A QIM scheme based on a total of 30 demerit points was developed. Sensory, physical and microbiological data were integrated and used to determine the rejection point. Results indicated that the shelf-life of blackspot seabream is around 12-13 days. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Controlled Atmospheres with Low Oxygen Levels on Extended Storage of Guava Fruit (Psidium guajava L. 'Pedro Sato')

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On chaotic behavior of a fixed offshore structure

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of moisture absorption on mechanical behaviour of composites

Because of their application that normally demands high mechanical strength combined with low weight, the fibre/matrix interface became an important parameter concerning structural life. The problem of moisture absorption in materials has received attention in experimental studies on a composite systems as well as from a theorical point of view. The fibre/matrix interface plays an important role in the structural behaviour of composites due to the fact that load transfer from matrix to reinforce occurs at the interface. In this case the study of compatibility of fibre/matrix/environmental is essential to ensure a product that attend structural objectives, many times without failure possibilities. The composite used in this investigation is the carbon fibre/matrix epoxy composite, which was immersed in sea water standard during 94 days at 60 degrees C, submitted to tensile and compressive tests to study the influence of moisture absorption on mechanical behaviour. The interface was investigated through fracture surface analysis by SEM and a strong interface and a good adhesion fibre/matrix was observed.

Influence of Sources and Meteorology on Surface Concentrations of Gases and Aerosols in a Coastal Industrial Complex

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)