903 resultados para Bayesian inference on precipitation


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We investigated the effect of cerium oxide on the precipitation of Ag nanoparticles in silicate glass via a femtosecond laser irradiation and successive annealing. Absorption spectra show that Ce3+ ions may absorb part of the laser energy via multiphoton absorption and release free electrons, resulting in an increase of the concentration of Ag atoms and a decrease of the concentration of hole-trapped color centers, which influence precipitation of the Ag nanoparticles. In addition, we found that the formed Ag-0 may reduce Ce4+ ions to Ce3+ ions during the annealing process, which inhibits the growth of the Ag nanoparticles.

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There is no evidence of an increase in the acidity (lower pH or alkalinity) of water-bodies in the Lake District over the last 50 years. Brown trout occur in acid streams and upland tarns where pH is 4.5-5.2 throughout the year. Their occurrence in such waters in Britain and Ireland has been known for most of this century and there is no previous evidence of harmful effects on salmonid fisheries, though numbers of fish are naturally low. However, many benthic invertebrates that are common in hill-streams where pH is above 5.7 do not occur in more acid streams. This phenomenon occurs in the headwaters of several western rivers in Cumbria. It is not a recent response to "acid rain". Harmful effects of pH are undoubtedly more pronounced in waters that are poor in other dissolved ions. Low concentrations of sodium, potassium, calcium and chloride are especially important and may limit the distributions of some aquatic animals even where pH is above 5.7. The concentration of sulphate ions is usually relatively high but this is not important to the fauna; concentrations are at least two times higher in productive alkaline water-bodies than they are in unproductive acid waters.

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Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.

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A generalized Bayesian population dynamics model was developed for analysis of historical mark-recapture studies. The Bayesian approach builds upon existing maximum likelihood methods and is useful when substantial uncertainties exist in the data or little information is available about auxiliary parameters such as tag loss and reporting rates. Movement rates are obtained through Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation, which are suitable for use as input in subsequent stock assessment analysis. The mark-recapture model was applied to English sole (Parophrys vetulus) off the west coast of the United States and Canada and migration rates were estimated to be 2% per month to the north and 4% per month to the south. These posterior parameter distributions and the Bayesian framework for comparing hypotheses can guide fishery scientists in structuring the spatial and temporal complexity of future analyses of this kind. This approach could be easily generalized for application to other species and more data-rich fishery analyses.