889 resultados para Barrow Island, expert elicitation, invasive species, Rattus, statistical design


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We examined the effect of the invasive Solanum elaeagnifolium (Solanaceae) on flower visitation patterns and seed set of the co-flowering native Glaucium flavum (Papaveraceae). We observed flowering G. flavum plants in invaded and uninvaded sites and found that G. flavum flowers in uninvaded sites received significantly more total visits. In addition, we hand-pollinated flowers on plants of G. flavum with (i) pure conspecific pollen, (ii) pure S. elaeagnifolium pollen and (iii) three different mixtures of the two types of pollen (containing 25, 50 and 75% invasive pollen). As a control, flowers were left unmanipulated or were permanently bagged. Seed set did not differ significantly between flowers receiving pollen mixtures and pure conspecific pollen. However, in the open pollination treatment, seed set was significantly lower than in the 100% conspecific pollen treatment, which suggests pollen limitation. Bagged flowers had very low seed set. G. flavum was generally resilient against the deposition of S. elaeagnifolium pollen.

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CONTEXT. Rattus tanezumi is a serious crop pest within the island of Luzon, Philippines. In intensive flood-irrigated rice field ecosystems of Luzon, female R. tanezumi are known to primarily nest within the tillers of ripening rice fields and along the banks of irrigation canals. The nesting habits of R. tanezumi in complex rice–coconut cropping systems are unknown. AIMS. To identify the natal nest locations of R. tanezumi females in rice–coconut systems of the Sierra Madre Biodiversity Corridor (SMBC), Luzon, during the main breeding season to develop a management strategy that specifically targets their nesting habitat. METHODS. When rice was at the booting to ripening stage, cage-traps were placed in rice fields adjacent to coconut habitat. Thirty breeding adult R. tanezumi females were fitted with radio-collars and successfully tracked to their nest sites. KEY RESULTS. Most R. tanezumi nests (66.7%) were located in coconut groves, five nests (16.7%) were located in rice fields and five nests (16.7%) were located on the rice field edge. All nests were located above ground level and seven nests were located in coconut tree crowns. The median distance of nest sites to the nearest rice field was 22.5m. Most nest site locations had good cover of ground vegetation and understorey vegetation, but low canopy cover. Only one nest location had an understorey vegetation height of less than 20 cm. CONCLUSIONS. In the coastal lowland rice–coconut cropping systems of the SMBC, female R. tanezumi showed a preference for nesting in adjacent coconut groves. This is contrary to previous studies in intensive flood-irrigated rice ecosystems of Luzon, where the species nests mainly in the banks of irrigation canals. It is important to understand rodent breeding ecology in a specific ecosystem before implementing appropriate management strategies. IMPLICATIONS. In lowland rice–coconut cropping systems, coconut groves adjacent to rice fields should be targeted for the 20 management of R. tanezumi nest sites during the main breeding season as part of an integrated ecologically based approach to rodent pest management.

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Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.

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Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

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The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

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This paper describes the karyotype analysis of Haemulon aurolineatum, Haemulon bonariensis and Haemulon plumierii, by Giemsa staining, C-banding, Ag-staining and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), to locate the 18S and 5S rRNA genes. Diploid modal count in the three species was 2n = 48 acrocentric elements. Except for pair 24, which exhibited an unmistakable secondary constriction in all three species, it was not possible to classify them as homologous to each other because differences in chromosome size were too slight between adjacent pairs within a size-graded series. Ag-NOR clusters were located in pair 24 in the three species with signal located on the secondary constriction of these chromosomes. C-banding demonstrated that the three species share the same distribution pattern of the constitutive heterochromatin with centromeric heterochromatic blocks in the 23 chromosome pairs and a pericentromeric block in pair 24 which is coincident with the NORs. FISH experiments showed that 18S rDNA sequences were located coincident with the Ag-NOR site in the three species; however, differences in both the number and chromosome distribution of 5S-rDNA cluster were detected among them. Our data suggest that chromosome evolution of Haemulon has been preserved from major changes in the karyotypic macrostructure, whereas microstructural changes have occurred.

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We describe a new species of Cycloramphus of the eleutherodactylus group from the Ilha dos Alcatrazes, southeastern Brazil, with descriptions of advertisement and territorial calls and notes on natural history. Additionally, we describe the advertisement and territorial calls of C. eleutherodactylus. The new species is diagnosed by the following set of characters: snout truncate in lateral and dorsal views; head wider than long; eyes protruding; tibia shorter than thigh; and distinct advertisement call. The new species is known from a single population on the Ilha dos Alcatrazes, a 149 ha island about 35 kin off São Paulo State coast where these frogs are scattered in a small valley. The very restricted range of the new species of Cycloramphus and the declining quality of its habitat qualify this frog as critically endangered.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A new species of hylid frog, from the genus Scinax, is described from Ilha de Porcos Pequena at the southern coast of São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. The new species belongs to the Scinax perpusillus species group and is diagnosed by the following set of characters: moderate-size (males 16.2-18.8 turn SVL, female 18.8-20.6 mm SVL); canthus rostralis distinct and well defined; V-shaped depression between nostrils; eyes protruding and prominent, glandular skin surface of legs. This new species is found only on Ilha de Porcos Pequena, an island of approximately 24 ha and, therefore, is threatened because of restricted range size and susceptibility to habitat modification.

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In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We describe a new species of hylid frog, Scinax peixotoi, from Queimada Grande Island, southeastern Brazil. The new species belongs to the Scinax perpusillus species group, in which all known forms inhabit bromeliads, and is diagnosed by the following set of characters: moderate-size (males 18.8-20.7 mm SVL, females 22.4-25.1 mm SVL); canthus rostralis distinct; dorsal skin slightly rugose; and a distinct advertisement call with relatively low dominant frequency. The new species is known from a single population on Queimada Grande, an island of 43 ha, approximately 33 km distant from the coast of São Paulo State, where it inhabits scattered patches of bromeliads. The highly specialized and patchy habitat of S. peixotoi, associated with its small range size, make this species highly susceptible to stochastic or anthropogenic habitat disturbances, which could lead it to extinction. Copyright © 2007 Magnolia Press.