Modeled and observed atmospheric radiation balance during the West African dry season: role of mineral dust, biomass burning aerosol, and surface albedo

The global radiation balance of the atmosphere is still poorly observed, particularly at the surface. We investigate the observed radiation balance at (1) the surface using the ARM Mobile Facility in Niamey, Niger, and (2) the top of the atmosphere (TOA) over West Africa using data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board Meteosat-8. Observed radiative fluxes are compared with predictions from the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) version of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The evaluation points to major shortcomings in the NWP model's radiative fluxes during the dry season (December 2005 to April 2006) arising from (1) a lack of absorbing aerosol in the model (mineral dust and biomass burning aerosol) and (2) a poor specification of the surface albedo. A case study of the major Saharan dust outbreak of 6–12 March 2006 is used to evaluate a parameterization of mineral dust for use in the NWP models. The model shows good predictability of the large-scale flow out to 4–5 days with the dust parameterization providing reasonable dust uplift, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution for this strongly forced dust event. The direct radiative impact of the dust reduces net downward shortwave (SW) flux at the surface (TOA) by a maximum of 200 W m−2 (150 W m−2), with a SW heating of the atmospheric column. The impacts of dust on terrestrial radiation are smaller. Comparisons of TOA (surface) radiation balance with GERB (ARM) show the “dusty” forecasts reduce biases in the radiative fluxes and improve surface temperatures and vertical thermodynamic structure.

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

Evaluation of modelled regional water balance using lake status data: a comparison of 6ka simulations with the NCAR CCM

Variations in lake area and depth reflect climatically induced changes in the water balance of overflowing as well as closed lakes. A new global data base of lake status has been assembled, and is used to compare two simulations for 6 ka (6000 yr ago) made with successive R15 versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). Simulated water balance was expressed as anomalies of annual precipitation minus evaporation (P-E); observed water balance as anomalies of lake status. Comparisons were made visually, by comparing regional averages, and by a statistic that compares the signs of simulated P-E anomalies (smoothly interpolated to the lake sites) with the status anomalies. Both CCM0 and CCM1 showed enhanced Northern-Hemisphere monsoons at 6 ka. Both underestimated the effect, but CCM1 fitted the spatial patterns better. In the northern mid- and high-latitudes the two versions differed more, and fitted the data less satisfactorily. CCM1 performed better than CCM0 in North America and central Eurasia, but not in Europe. Both models (especially CCM0) simulated excessive aridity in interior Eurasia. The models were systematically wrong in the southern mid-latitudes. Problems may have been caused by inadequate treatment of changes in sea-surface conditions in both models. Palaeolake status data will continue to provide a benchmark for the evaluation of modelling improvements.

Evaluation of the trade development strategies of UKTI Sectors Group: Stage 2

An evaluation of the activities of UK Trade & Investment's Sectors Group. It assessed the contribution of trade development activities to high-level objectives such as productivity growth and critically examined the rationale for interventions.

Effect of monensin on mineral balance in growing ruminants reared under different environmental temperatures

To test the effect of monensin on the mineral balance of growing cattle under different environmental temperatures, 24 male steers were assigned in a 2 x 2 factorial arrangement, contrasting 0 and 85 mg monensin/animal per day at 24.3 and 33.2 degrees C (environmental temperatures). Monensin effect was directly modulated by the environmental temperature: it increased apparent retentions of P (P=0.066), Na (P=0.005) and K (P=0.003), at the higher temperature and decreased these apparent retentions at the lower temperature, as compared with non-supplemented animals. Monensin increased fecal Ca (P=0.037), and urinary P (P=0.002), Na (P=0.003), K (P=0.014), Mg (P=0.051) and Zn (P=0.091), with higher concentrations of these minerals in animals held at 24.3 degrees C and lower concentrations in those at 33.2 degrees C, as compared with non-supplemented animals. Monensin decreased serum Mg (P=0.001) and increased serum Zn (P=0.071) in animals at 33.2 degrees C and increased serum Mg and decreased serum Zn at 24.3 degrees C. Irrespective of temperature, monensin increased both apparent absorption (P=0.058) and apparent retention (P=0.093) of P, and also urine Cu (P=0.085). Environmental temperature modulated monensin effects on mineral balance. Monensin increased apparent retention of several minerals in animals under heat stress. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil

Rio de Janeiro

Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil

Rio de Janeiro

Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil

From 1988 to 1995, when trade liberalization was implemented in Brazil, relative earnings of skilled workers decreased. In this paper, we investigate the role of trade liberalization in explaining these relative earnings movements, by checking all the steps predicted by the HeckscherOhlin- style trade transmission mechanism. We find that: i) employment shifted from skilled to unskilled intensive sectors, and each Sector increased its relative share of skilled labor; ii) relative prices fell in skill intensive sectors; iii) tariff changes across sectors were not related to skill intensities, but the pass-through from tariffs to prices was stronger in skill intensive sectors; iv) the decline in skilled eamings differentials mandated by the price variation predicted by trade is very elose to the observed one. The results are compatible with trade liberalization, accounting for the observed rei ative eamings changes in Brazil.

Citizens and the future of multilateralism in a polycentric world at 2030: the perspectives of emerging countries for the trading system: the impasse of WTO, the trends of mega agreements, the logic of value chains and the advent of consumers concerns on international trade

A new paradigm is modeling the World: evolutionary innovations in all fronts, new information technologies, huge mobility of capital, use of risky financial tools, globalization of production, new emerging powers and the impact of consumer concerns on governmental policies. These phenomena are shaping the World and forcing the advent of a new World Order in the Multilateral Monetary, Financial, and Trading System. The effects of this new paradigm are also transforming global governance. The political and economic orders established after the World War and centered on the multilateral model of UN, IMF, World Bank, and the GATT, leaded by the developed countries, are facing significant challenges. The rise of China and emerging countries shifted the old model to a polycentric World, where the governance of these organizations are threatened by emerging countries demanding a bigger participation in the role and decision boards of these international bodies. As a consequence, multilateralism is being confronted by polycentrism. Negotiations for a more representative voting process and the pressure for new rules to cope with the new demands are paralyzing important decisions. This scenario is affecting seriously not only the Monetary and Financial Systems but also the Multilateral Trading System. International trade is facing some significant challenges: a serious deadlock to conclude the last round of the multilateral negotiation at the WTO, the fragmentation of trade rules by the multiplication of preferential and mega agreements, the arrival of a new model of global production and trade leaded by global value chains that is threatening the old trade order, and the imposition of new sets of regulations by private bodies commanded by transnationals to support global value chains and non-governmental organizations to reflect the concerns of consumers in the North based on their precautionary attitude about sustainability of products made in the World. The lack of any multilateral order in this new regulation is creating a big cacophony of rules and developing a new regulatory war of the Global North against the Global South. The objective of this paper is to explore how these challenges are affecting the Tradinge System and how it can evolve to manage these new trends.

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

5th BRICS Trade and Economic Research Network (TERN) meeting: the impact of mega agreements on BRICS

The BRICS TERN – BRICS Trade and Economics Research Network is a group of independent research institutes established four years ago by five think tanks from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The main objective of the network is to study different aspects of trade and economic relations amongst these five countries. The purpose of the V BRICS TERN Meeting was to analyze and debate the effects of the negotiations of the Mega Agreements, mainly those initiated by the US and the EU, already in negotiation, to each of the BRICS Trade Policies. Both Mega Agreements were examined – the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The studies included the main impacts on trade flows and on the international trade rules system, respecting the perspective of each of the countries concerned. This workshop was an initiative of the Center for Global Trade and Investments (CGTI), a think-tank on International Trade held by FGV Sao Paulo School of Economics. Its main objective is the research on trade regulation, preferential trade agreements, trade and currency, trade and global value chains, through legal analysis and economic modelling. One of its main researches, now, is on the potential economic and legal impacts of the Mega Agreements on Brazil and WTO rules. This meeting was organized in March14, 2014, in Rio de Janeiro, in a perfect timing for introducing such issues in the international agenda, in advance of the 6th BRICS Summit scheduled to be held in Brazil in July 2014.

A controlled clinical trial on the effects of motor intervention on balance and cognition in institutionalized elderly patients with dementia

Purpose: To analyse the effects of two interventions on the cognition and balance of institutionalized elderly people with mixed dementia.Methods: Fifty-four participants were allocated into three groups. Group 1 was assisted by an interdisciplinary programme comprising physiotherapy, occupational therapy and physical education. A physiotherapist alone carried out the intervention in group 2. Group 3 was considered as control. Assessors were blinded to guarantee the absence of bias. Cognitive functions were analysed with the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Brief Cognitive Screening Battery. Balance was assessed with the Berg Balance Scale and the Timed Get-Up-and-Go Test. Multiple analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used to test possible main effects of the interventions.Results: The results showed benefits on the balance of subjects in both groups 1 (F=3.9, P < 0.05) and 2 (F= 3.1, P < 0.05), compared with group 3. MANOVA did not indicate benefits on the cognitive functions between groups 1 and 3 (F= 1.1, P > 0.05) and groups 2 and 3 (F= 1.6, P > 0.05). However, univariate analysis indicated some benefits of the interdisciplinary intervention on two specific domains measured by the Brief Cognitive Screening Battery (F=26.5, P < 0.05; F= 4.4, P < 0.05).Conclusion: Six months of multidisciplinary or physiotherapeutic intervention were able to improve a person's balance. Although global cognition did not improve through treatment, when the intervention was carried out on a multidisciplinary basis we observed an attenuation in the decline of global cognition on two specific cognitive domains. Exercises applied in different contexts may have positive outcomes for people with dementia.

Potential of municipal solid waste (MSW) as a source of energy in São Paulo: Its impact on CO2 balance

Energy generation is needed in São Paulo and MSW represents a promising alternative, although it is more expensive than hydroelectric power. About 14 900 t/day of MSW is generated, of which 8433 t/day is domestic and commercial MSW. From this amount, 1800 t will be destined to generate 30 MW of power. The eco-balance of CO2 has been considered for incineration and recycling. The recycling program of plastics, metals, paper and glass would represent a significant reduction in energy and CO2 emission. The total CO2 released is 3.34 x 10(5) t/yr without recycling. and is 1.25 x 10(5) t/yr with a recycling program. Most of the CO2 comes from plastics and paper production. Economic aspects could probably favor Incineration with energy production as the best option. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gas balance due to the conversion of sugarcane areas from burned to green harvest, considering other conservationist management practices

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1999

Includes bibliography