Impact of the arc length on GNSS analysis results

Homogeneously reprocessed combined GPS/GLONASS 1- and 3-day solutions from 1994 to 2013, generated by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) in the frame of the second reprocessing campaign REPRO-2 of the International GNSS Service, as well as GPS- and GLONASS-only 1- and 3-day solutions for the years 2009 to 2011 are analyzed to assess the impact of the arc length on the estimated Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP, namely polar motion and length of day), on the geocenter, and on the orbits. The conventional CODE 3-day solutions assume continuity of orbits, polar motion components, and of other parameters at the day boundaries. An experimental 3-day solution, which assumes continuity of the orbits, but independence from day to day for all other parameters, as well as a non-overlapping 3-day solution, is included into our analysis. The time series of EOPs, geocenter coordinates, and orbit misclosures, are analyzed. The long-arc solutions were found to be superior to the 1-day solutions: the RMS values of EOP and geocenter series are typically reduced between 10 and 40 %, except for the polar motion rates, where RMS reductions by factors of 2–3 with respect to the 1-day solutions are achieved for the overlapping and the non-overlapping 3-day solutions. In the low-frequency part of the spectrum, the reduction is even more important. The better performance of the orbits of 3-day solutions with respect to 1-day solutions is also confirmed by the validation with satellite laser ranging.

Grace Pedley, Rollenbild, Hüftbild, in: Joan of Arc

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F09498

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Use of short term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

Effects of informative censoring on the hazard function: Application to the proportional hazards regression model

The standard analyses of survival data involve the assumption that survival and censoring are independent. When censoring and survival are related, the phenomenon is known as informative censoring. This paper examines the effects of an informative censoring assumption on the hazard function and the estimated hazard ratio provided by the Cox model.^ The limiting factor in all analyses of informative censoring is the problem of non-identifiability. Non-identifiability implies that it is impossible to distinguish a situation in which censoring and death are independent from one in which there is dependence. However, it is possible that informative censoring occurs. Examination of the literature indicates how others have approached the problem and covers the relevant theoretical background.^ Three models are examined in detail. The first model uses conditionally independent marginal hazards to obtain the unconditional survival function and hazards. The second model is based on the Gumbel Type A method for combining independent marginal distributions into bivariate distributions using a dependency parameter. Finally, a formulation based on a compartmental model is presented and its results described. For the latter two approaches, the resulting hazard is used in the Cox model in a simulation study.^ The unconditional survival distribution formed from the first model involves dependency, but the crude hazard resulting from this unconditional distribution is identical to the marginal hazard, and inferences based on the hazard are valid. The hazard ratios formed from two distributions following the Gumbel Type A model are biased by a factor dependent on the amount of censoring in the two populations and the strength of the dependency of death and censoring in the two populations. The Cox model estimates this biased hazard ratio. In general, the hazard resulting from the compartmental model is not constant, even if the individual marginal hazards are constant, unless censoring is non-informative. The hazard ratio tends to a specific limit.^ Methods of evaluating situations in which informative censoring is present are described, and the relative utility of the three models examined is discussed. ^

Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy Evaluation with the Radiological Physics Center Head and Neck Phantom

Validation of treatment plan quality and dose calculation accuracy is essential for new radiotherapy techniques, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). VMAT delivers intensity modulated radiotherapy treatments while simultaneously rotating the gantry, adding an additional level of complexity to both the dose calculation and delivery of VMAT treatments compared to static gantry IMRT. The purpose of this project was to compare two VMAT systems, Elekta VMAT and Varian RapidArc, to the current standard of care, IMRT, in terms of both treatment plan quality and dosimetric delivery accuracy using the Radiological Physics Center (RPC) head and neck (H&N) phantom. Clinically relevant treatment plans were created for the phantom using typical prescription and dose constraints for Elekta VMAT (planned with Pinnacle3 Smart Arc) and RapidArc and IMRT (both planned with Eclipse). The treatment plans were evaluated to determine if they were clinically comparable using several dosimetric criteria, including ability to meet dose objectives, hot spots, conformity index, and homogeneity index. The planned treatments were delivered to the phantom and absolute doses and relative dose distributions were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and radiochromic film, respectively. The measured and calculated doses of each treatment were compared to determine if they were clinically acceptable based upon RPC criteria of ±7% dose difference and 4 mm distance-to-agreement. Gamma analysis was used to assess dosimetric accuracy, as well. All treatment plans were able to meet the dosimetric objectives set by the RPC and had similar hot spots in the normal tissue. The Elekta VMAT plan was more homogenous but less conformal than the RapidArc and IMRT plans. When comparing the measured and calculated doses, all plans met the RPC ±7%/4 mm criteria. The percent of points passing the gamma analysis for each treatment delivery was acceptable. Treatment plan quality of the Elekta VMAT, RapidArc and IMRT treatments were comparable for consistent dose prescriptions and constraints. Additionally, the dosimetric accuracy of the Elekta VMAT and RapidArc treatments was verified to be within acceptable tolerances.