Evolution and sedimentology of a channel fill in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River and its comparison to the deposits of an adjacent compound bar

The depositional stratigraphy of within-channel deposits in sandy braided rivers is dominated by a variety of barforms (both singular `unit' bars and complex `compound' bars), as well as the infill of individual channels (herein termed `channel fills'). The deposits of bars and channel fills define the key components of facies models for braided rivers and their within-channel heterogeneity, knowledge of which is important for reservoir characterization. However, few studies have sought to address the question of whether the deposits of bars and channel fills can be readily differentiated from each other. This paper presents the first quantitative study to achieve this aim, using aerial images of an evolving modern sandy braided river and geophysical imaging of its subsurface deposits. Aerial photographs taken between 2000 and 2004 document the abandonment and fill of a 1 3 km long, 80 m wide anabranch channel in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. Upstream river regulation traps the majority of very fine sediment and there is little clay (<1%) in the bed sediments. Channel abandonment was initiated by a series of unit bars that stalled and progressively blocked the anabranch entrance, together with dune deposition and stacking at the anabranch entrance and exit. Complete channel abandonment and subsequent fill of up to 3 m of sediment took approximately two years. Thirteen kilometres of ground-penetrating radar surveys, coupled with 18 cores, were obtained over the channel fill and an adjacent 750 m long, 400 m wide, compound bar, enabling a quantitative analysis of the channel and bar deposits. Results show that, in terms of grain-size trends, facies proportions and scale of deposits, there are only subtle differences between the channel fill and bar deposits which, therefore, renders them indistinguishable. Thus, it may be inappropriate to assign different geometric and sedimentological attributes to channel fill and bar facies in object-based models of sandy braided river alluvial architecture.

Foliar carbohydrates content and invertase activity in vines at São Francisco River Valley - Brazil

The irrigated agriculture at the São Francisco River Valley, Northeast Brazil, shows an increasing production of grapes for winery. Among the wines produced there the one obtained from Vitis vinifera L., cultivar Syrah, stands out due to its adaptation to the climatic conditions of the region. However, little is known about carbohydrates metabolism of vines cultivated in this region. The objective of this work was to evaluate sugar and starch contents and the invertase activity in vines leaves during two consecutive growing seasons. The experiment was carried out at Embrapa Semi-Árido and at Santa Maria Winery, respectively located in Petrolina and Lagoa Grande, Pernambuco-Brazil. Leaves were collected weekly from January to December of 2003 and assessed for reducing sugars, total soluble sugars and starch contents, as well as for acid (AI) and neutral invertases (NI). The results showed that reducing sugars, total soluble sugars and starch contents increased during fruit maturation and are influenced by temperature, radiation and insolation variations. The second growing season showed higher reducing sugars and total soluble sugars content and lower starch content in the leaves than the first one. AI activity was higher than NI activity and these also varied according to weather conditions. During berries ripening, leaves showed higher sugar content and invertase activity, suggesting a higher sugar metabolism and transport during this phase.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods: Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results: For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion: Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them. These two pieces of information will be entered into a cost-effectiveness model of early detection in Catalonia.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Effect of water velocity on the uptake of polychlorinatedd biphenyls (PCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers: an assessment of the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) in river-like flow conditions

One aim of this study is to determine the impact of water velocity on the uptake of indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (iPCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers. A second aim is to assess the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) to correct for the impact of water velocity. SR and LDPE samplers were spiked with 11 or 12 PRCs and exposed for 6 weeks to four different velocities (in the range of 1.6 to 37.7 cm s−1) in river-like flow conditions using a channel system supplied with river water. A relationship between velocity and the uptakewas found for each iPCB and enables to determine expected changes in the uptake due to velocity variations. For both samplers, velocity increases from 2 to 10 cm s−1, 30 cm s−1 (interpolated data) and 100 cm s−1 (extrapolated data) lead to increases of the uptake which do not exceed a factor of 2, 3 and 4.5, respectively. Results also showed that the influence of velocity decreased with increasing the octanol-water coefficient partition (log Kow) of iPCBs when SR is used whereas the opposite effect was observed for LDPE. Time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of iPCBs in water were calculated from iPCB uptake and PRC release. These calculations were performed using either a single PRC or all the PRCs. The efficiency of PRCs to correct the impact of velocity was assessed by comparing the TWA concentrations obtained at the four tested velocities. For SR, a good agreement was found among the four TWA concentrations with both methods (average RSD b 10%). Also for LDPE, PRCs offered a good correction of the impact of water velocity (average RSD of about 10 to 20%). These results contribute to the process of acceptance of passive sampling in routine regulatory monitoring programs.

Epidemiology of foodborne Norovirus outbreaks in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Noroviruses are one of the principal biological agents associated with the consumption of contaminated food. The objective of this study was to analyse the size and epidemiological characteristics of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Catalonia, a region in the northeast of Spain. Methods: In all reported outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with food consumption, faecal samples of persons affected were analysed for bacteria and viruses and selectively for parasites. Study variables included the setting, the number of people exposed, age, sex, clinical signs and hospital admissions. The study was carried out from October 2004 to October 2005. Results: Of the 181 outbreaks reported during the study period, 72 were caused by Salmonella and 30 by norovirus (NoV); the incidence rates were 14.5 and 9.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. In 50% of the NoV outbreaks and 27% of the bacterial outbreaks (p = 0.03) the number of persons affected was ≥10; 66.7% of NoV outbreaks occurred in restaurants; no differences in the attack rates were observed according to the etiology. Hospitalizations were more common (p = 0.03) in bacterial outbreaks (8.6%) than in NoV outbreaks (0.15%). Secondary cases accounted for 4% of cases in NoV outbreaks compared with 0.3% of cases in bacterial outbreaks (p < 0.001) Conclusion: Norovirus outbreaks were larger but less frequent than bacterial outbreaks, suggesting that underreporting is greater for NoV outbreaks. Food handlers should receive training on the transmission of infections in diverse situations. Very strict control measures on handwashing and environmental disinfection should be adopted in closed or partially-closed institutions.

Scales and causes of heterogeneity in bars in a large multi-channel river: Rio Parana, Argentina

To date, published studies of alluvial bar architecture in large rivers have been restricted mostly to case studies of individual bars and single locations. Relatively little is known about how the depositional processes and sedimentary architecture of kilometre-scale bars vary within a multi-kilometre reach or over several hundreds of kilometres downstream. This study presents Ground Penetrating Radar and core data from 11, kilometre-scale bars from the Rio Parana, Argentina. The investigated bars are located between 30km upstream and 540km downstream of the Rio Parana - Rio Paraguay confluence, where a significant volume of fine-grained suspended sediment is introduced into the network. Bar-scale cross-stratified sets, with lengths and widths up to 600m and thicknesses up to 12m, enable the distinction of large river deposits from stacked deposits of smaller rivers, but are only present in half the surface area of the bars. Up to 90% of bar-scale sets are found on top of finer-grained ripple-laminated bar-trough deposits. Bar-scale sets make up as much as 58% of the volume of the deposits in small, incipient mid-channel bars, but this proportion decreases significantly with increasing age and size of the bars. Contrary to what might be expected, a significant proportion of the sedimentary structures found in the Rio Parana is similar in scale to those found in much smaller rivers. In other words, large river deposits are not always characterized by big structures that allow a simple interpretation of river scale. However, the large scale of the depositional units in big rivers causes small-scale structures, such as ripple sets, to be grouped into thicker cosets, which indicate river scale even when no obvious large-scale sets are present. The results also show that the composition of bars differs between the studied reaches upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Rio Paraguay. Relative to other controls on downstream fining, the tributary input of fine-grained suspended material from the Rio Paraguay causes a marked change in the composition of the bar deposits. Compared to the upstream reaches, the sedimentary architecture of the downstream reaches in the top ca 5m of mid-channel bars shows: (i) an increase in the abundance and thickness (up to metre-scale) of laterally extensive (hundreds of metres) fine-grained layers; (ii) an increase in the percentage of deposits comprised of ripple sets (to >40% in the upper bar deposits); and (iii) an increase in bar-trough deposits and a corresponding decrease in bar-scale cross-strata (<10%). The thalweg deposits of the Rio Parana are composed of dune sets, even directly downstream from the Rio Paraguay where the upper channel deposits are dominantly fine-grained. Thus, the change in sedimentary facies due to a tributary point-source of fine-grained sediment is primarily expressed in the composition of the upper bar deposits.

Deposits of the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River: Implications for the use of modern analogs in reconstructing channel dimensions in reservoir characterization

Estimation of the dimensions of fluvial geobodies from core data is a notoriously difficult problem in reservoir modeling. To try and improve such estimates and, hence, reduce uncertainty in geomodels, data on dunes, unit bars, cross-bar channels, and compound bars and their associated deposits are presented herein from the sand-bed braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. These data are used to test models that relate the scale of the formative bed forms to the dimensions of the preserved deposits and, therefore, provide an insight as to how such deposits may be preserved over geologic time. The preservation of bed-form geometry is quantified by comparing the Alluvial architecture above and below the maximum erosion depth of the modem channel deposits. This comparison shows that there is no significant difference in the mean set thickness of dune cross-strata above and below the basal erosion surface of the contemporary channel, thus suggesting that dimensional relationships between dune deposits and the formative bed-form dimensions are likely to be valid from both recent and older deposits. The data show that estimates of mean bankfull flow depth derived from dune, unit bar, and cross-bar channel deposits are all very similar. Thus, the use of all these metrics together can provide a useful check that all components and scales of the alluvial architecture have been identified correctly when building reservoir models. The data also highlight several practical issues with identifying and applying data relating to cross-strata. For example, the deposits of unit bars were found to be severely truncated in length and width, with only approximately 10% of the mean bar-form length remaining, and thus making identification in section difficult. For similar reasons, the deposits of compound bars were found to be especially difficult to recognize, and hence, estimates of channel depth based on this method may be problematic. Where only core data are available (i.e., no outcrop data exist), formative flow depths are suggested to be best reconstructed using cross-strata formed by dunes. However, theoretical relationships between the distribution of set thicknesses and formative dune height are found to result in slight overestimates of the latter and, hence, mean bankfull flow depths derived from these measurements. This article illustrates that the preservation of fluvial cross-strata and, thus, the paleohydraulic inferences that can be drawn from them, are a function of the ratio of the size and migration rate of bed forms and the time scale of aggradation and channel migration. These factors must thus be considered when deciding on appropriate length:thickness ratios for the purposes of object-based modeling in reservoir characterization.

Climate and human forcing of Alpine river flow

River flow in Alpine environments is likely to be highly sensitive to climate change because of the effects of warming upon snow and ice, and hence the intra-annual distribution of river runoff. It is also likely to be influenced strongly by human impacts both upon hydrology (e.g. flow abstraction) and river regulation. This paper compares the river flow and sediment flux of two Alpine drainage basins over the last 5 to 7 decades, one that is largely unimpacted by human activities, one strongly impacted by flow abstraction for hydroelectricity. The analysis shows that both river flow and sediment transport capacity are strongly dependent upon the effects of temperature and precipitation availability upon snow accumulation. As the latter tends to increase annual maximum flows, and given the non-linear form of most sediment transport laws, current warming trends may lead to increased sedimentation in Alpine rivers. However, extension to a system impacted upon by flow abstraction reveals the dominant effect that human activity can have upon river sedimentation but also how human response to sediment management has co-evolved with climate forcing to make disentangling the two very difficult.

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

Presència i distribució espacial de concentracions anormals d'ió nitrat a les aigües subterrànies dels aqüífers del Baix Fluvià (Alt Empordà)

Presentem una caracterització de la distribució espacial de la contaminació per nitrats en els aqüífers de la plana del baix Fluvià. En concret, els valors de concentració més elevats s’han observat a l’aqüífer superficial, on sobrepassen, amb escreix, els límits de potabilitat aconsellats pel RD 1138/1990. L’àrea més afectada ocupa part dels termes municipals de Vilamacolum i Torroella de Fluvià, en els quals hi predominen concentracions que oscil·len entre 50 i 200 mg × L–1. Els focus de contaminació són de tipus puntual i difús. Documentada la presència anormal de nitrats en aquest aqüífer, es planteja el correcte maneig agrícola, en vistes a una doble finalitat: d’una banda, contribuir a la planificació d’unes bones pràctiques agrícoles tenint en compte la relació entre volums de reg i aportacions de nitrogen; d’altra banda, preveure una progressiva recuperació de la qualitat de l’aqüífer, a partir de l’ús de tecnologies que integrin la ubicació d’unes zones favorables on es pugui maximitzar l’extracció del recurs contaminat, i la ubicació d’uns sòls aptes per a l’aplicació d’aquest recurs, amb uns criteris agronòmics coherents.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

El plom ibèric escrit del Tossal del Mor (Tàrrega, Urgell)

[spa]El presente trabajo culmina un proyecto dedicado al estudio de cuatro láminas de plomo con escritura ibérica procedentes del área ilergeta, que habñian sido extraídas de forma irregular de forma irregular a principios de la década de los años 80 del pasado siglo y que acabaron en el Instituto de Estudios Ilerdenses. En 2005 se dio a conocer el plomo de Olriols (Sant Esteve de Llitera), en 2009 los plomos 1 y 2 de Monteró (Camarasa) y ahora finalmente el plomo del Tossal del Mor (Tárrega). Este texto es muy corto, sólo consta de cuatro segmentos, todos posiblemete antropónimos sin ningún morfo añadido. Desde el punto de vista paleográfico, es significativo que por primera vez se documente un signo dual ko complejo en la zona ilergeta. Mientras que del léxico, cabe destacar que en uno de los antroponimos se documenta por primera vez con claridad en una inscripción ibérica el elemento iber. Independientemente de su significado parece plausible su relación con el etnónimo o con el río con los que antiguos griegos y romanos identificaban a los íberos. [eng]This work is the culmination of a project dedicated to the study of four sheets of lead with Iberian writing from the Ilerget area that had been extracted without authorisation in the early 1980s and that found way to the Institut d"Estudis Ilerdencs (Lleida). In 2005, the lead from Olriols (Sant Esteve de Llitera) was presented, as were lead sheets 1 and 2 from Monteró (Camarasa) in 2009 and now finally the lad piece from Tossal del Mor (Tàrrega). The text is very short, with only four segments, all possibly anthroponyms without any added morph. From the palaeographic point of view, it is significant that, for the first time, a complex dual ko sign is documented in the Ilerget area. Regarding the lexis, it is of note that in one of the anthroponyms the element ibeŕ is documented clearly for the first time in an Iberian inscription. Independently of its meaning, it seems plausible to link it to the ethnonym or the river with which the ancient Greeks and Romans identified the Iberians.