Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Wheat archive links long-term population dynamics of pathogens to air pollution

We used the PCR to study the presence of two plant pathogens in archived wheat samples from a long-term experiment started in 1843. The data were used to construct a unique 160-yr time-series of the abundance of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola, two important pathogens of wheat. During the period since 1970, the relative abundance of DNA of these two pathogens in the samples has reflected the relative importance of the two wheat diseases they cause in U.K. disease surveys. Unexpectedly, changes in the ratio of the pathogens over the 160-yr period were very strongly correlated with changes in atmospheric pollution, as measured by SO2 emissions. This finding suggests that long-term, economically important, changes in pathogen populations can be influenced by anthropogenically induced environmental changes.

Photocatalytic degradation of humic acid in saline waters. Part 1. Artificial seawater: influence of TiO2, temperature, pH, and air-flow

We report the first systematic study on the photocatalytic oxidation of humic acid (HA) in artificial seawater (ASW). TiO2 (Degussa P25) dispersions were used as the catalyst with irradiation from a medium-pressure mercury lamp. The optimum quantity of catalyst was found to be between 2 and 2.5 g l(-1); whiled the decomposition was fastest at low pH values (pH 4.5 in the range examined), and the optimum air-flow, using an immersion well reactor with a capacity of 400 ml, was 850 ml min(-1). Reactivity increased with air-flow up to this figure, above which foaming prevented operation of the reactor. Using pure. oxygen, an optimal flow rate was observed at 300 nil min(-1), above which reactivity remains essentially constant. Following treatment for 1 h, low-salinity water (2700 mg l(-1)) was completely mineralised, whereas ASW (46000 mg l(-1)) had traces of HA remaining. These effects are interpreted and kinetic data presented. To avoid problems of precipitation due to change of ionic strength humic substances were prepared directly in ASW, and the effects of ASW on catalyst suspension and precipitation have been taken into account. The Langmuir-Hinshelwood kinetic model has been shown to be followed only approximately for the catalytic oxidation of HA in ASW. The activation energy for the reaction derived from an Arrhenius treatment was 17 ( +/-0.6) kJ mol(-1). (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ag dopedWO(3)-based powder sensor for the detection of NO gas in air

WO3-based materials as sensors for the monitor of environmental gases such as NO2 (NO + NO2) have been rapidly developed for various potential applications (stationary and mobile uses). It has been reported that these materials are highly sensitive to NOx with the sensitivity further enhanced by adding precious group metals (PGM such as Pt, Pd, Au, etc.). However, there has been limited work in revealing the sensing mechanism for these gases over the WO3-based sensors. In particular, the role of promoter is not yet clear though speculations on their catalytic, electronic and structural effects have been made in the past. In parallel to these PGM promoters here we report,for the first time, that Ag promotion can also enhance WO3 sensitivity significantly. In addition, this promotion decreases the optimum sensor temperature of 300 degreesC for Most WO3-based sensors, to below 200 degreesC. Characterizations (XRD, TEM, and impedance measurement) reveal that there is no significant bulk structure change nor particle size alteration in the WO3 phases during the NO exposure. However, it is found that the Ag doping creates a high concentration of oxygen vacancies in form of coordinated crystallographic shear (CS) planes onto the underneath WO3. It is thus proposed that the Ag particle facilitates the oxidative conversion of NO to NO2 followed by a subsequent NO2 adsorption on the defective WO, sites created at the Ag-WO3 interface; hence, accounting for the high molecular sensitivity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural analysis of PEO-PBO copolymer monolayers at the air-water interface

X-ray reflectivity (XR) and grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) have been used to examine an oxyethylene-b-oxybutylene (E23B8) copolymer film at the air-water interface. The XR data were fitted using both a one- and a two-layer model that outputted the film thickness, roughness, and electron density. The best fit to the experimental data was obtained using a two-layer model (representing the oxyethylene and oxybutylene blocks, respectively), which showed a rapid thickening of the copolymer film at pressures above 7 mN/m. The large roughness values found indicate a significant degree of intermixing between the blocks and back up the GIXD data, which showed no long range lateral ordering within the layer. It was found from the electron density model results that there is a large film densification at 7 mN/m, possibly suggesting conformational changes within the film, even though no such change occurs on the pressure-area isotherm at the same surface pressure.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in air

A commercial dodecylbenzene (DDB) cable oil was aged at temperatures between 90 and 135 degrees C in air and was analyzed using various analytical techniques including optical and infra-red spectroscopy and dielectric analysis. On ageing, the oil darkened, significant oxidation features were found by infra-red spectroscopy and the acid number, water content and dielectric loss all increased. Ageing in the presence of paper or aluminum did not affect the ageing process, whereas ageing was significantly modified by the presence of copper. An absorption at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected by ultra-violet/visible spectroscopy followed by the production of an opaque precipitate. A reaction between copper and the acid generated on ageing is thought to produce copper carboxylates, and X-ray fluorescence confirmed that copper was indeed present in both the aged oil and the precipitate. Significantly, once red absorbers were detected, the dielectric loss increased to catastrophically high values and, therefore, the appearance of these compounds may serve as a useful diagnostic indicator. The development of acidity on ageing appears to be key in initiating the destructive copper conversion reaction and hence the control of oil acidity may be key to prolonging the life of DDB cable oils.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene 2: thermal ageing of single isomers in air

The linear isomer of dodecylbenzene (DDB), 1-phenyldodecane, was aged at temperatures of 105 and 135 degrees C in air and the resultant products were analyzed using a range of analytical techniques. On ageing, the 1-phenyldodecane darkened, the acid number, dielectric loss and water content increased and significant oxidation peaks were detected in the infrared spectrum. When aged in the presence of copper, a characteristic peak at 680 nm was also detected by UV/visible spectroscopy but, compared with previous studies of a cable-grade DDB, the strength of this peak was much increased and no appreciable precipitate formation occurred. At the same time, very high values of dielectric loss were recorded. On ageing in the absence of copper, an unusually strong infrared carbonyl band was seen, which correlates well with the detection of dodecanophenone by gas chromatography / mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. It was therefore concluded that the ageing process proceeds via the initial production of aromatic ketones, which may then be further oxidized to carboxylic acids. In the presence of copper, these oxidation products are present in lower quantities, most of these oxidation products being combined with the copper present in the oil to give copper carboxylates. The behavior is described in terms of a complex autoxidation mechanism, in which copper acts as both an oxidizing and a reducing agent, depending on its oxidation state and, in particular, promotes elimination via the oxidation of intermediate alkyl radical species to carbocations.

Oxidation of oleic acid at the air-water interface and its potential effects on cloud critical supersaturations

The oxidation of organic films on cloud condensation nuclei has the potential to affect climate and precipitation events. In this work we present a study of the oxidation of a monolayer of deuterated oleic acid (cis-9-octadecenoic acid) at the air-water interface by ozone to determine if oxidation removes the organic film or replaces it with a product film. A range of different aqueous sub-phases were studied. The surface excess of deuterated material was followed by neutron reflection whilst the surface pressure was followed using a Wilhelmy plate. The neutron reflection data reveal that approximately half the organic material remains at the air-water interface following the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone, thus cleavage of the double bond by ozone creates one surface active species and one species that partitions to the bulk (or gas) phase. The most probable products, produced with a yield of similar to(87 +/- 14)%, are nonanoic acid, which remains at the interface, and azelaic acid (nonanedioic acid), which dissolves into the bulk solution. We also report a surface bimolecular rate constant for the reaction between ozone and oleic acid of (7.3 +/- 0.9) x 10(-11) cm(2) molecule s(-1). The rate constant and product yield are not affected by the solution sub-phase. An uptake coefficient of ozone on the oleic acid monolayer of similar to 4 x 10(-6) is estimated from our results. A simple Kohler analysis demonstrates that the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone on an atmospheric aerosol will lower the critical supersaturation needed for cloud droplet formation. We calculate an atmospheric chemical lifetime of oleic acid of 1.3 hours, significantly longer than laboratory studies on pure oleic acid particles suggest, but more consistent with field studies reporting oleic acid present in aged atmospheric aerosol.

Bahrain's Formula-1 racing circuit: energy and environmental considerations

The Bahrain International Circuit (BIC) and complex, at latitude 26.00N and longitude 51.54E, was built in 483 days and cost 150 million US$. The circuit consists of six different individual tracks with a 3.66 km outer track (involving 10 turns) and a 2.55 km inner track (having six turns). The complex has been designed to host a variety of other sporting activities. Fifty thousand spectators, including 10,500 in the main grandstand, can be accommodated simultaneously. State-of-the art on-site media and broadcast facilities are available. The noise level emitted from vehicles on the circuit during the Formula-1 event, on April 4th 2004, was acceptable and caused no physical disturbance to the fans in the VIP lounges or to scholars studying at the University of Bahrain's Shakeir Campus, which is only 1.5 km away from the circuit. The sound-intensity level (SIL) recorded on the balcony of the VIP lounge was 128 dB(A) and was 80 dB(A) inside the lounge. The calculated SIL immediately outside the lecture halls of the University of Bahrain was 70 dB(A) and 65 dB(A) within them. Thus racing at BIC can proceed without significantly disturbing the academic-learning process. The purchased electricity demand by the BIC complex peaked (at 4.5 MW) during the first Formula-1 event on April 4th 2004. The reverse-osmosis (RO) plant at the BIC provides 1000 m(3) of desalinated water per day for landscape irrigation. Renewable-energy inputs, (i.e., via solar and wind power), at the BIC could be harnessed to generate electricity for water desalination, air conditioning, lighting as well as for irrigation. If the covering of the BIC complex was covered by adhesively fixed modern photovoltaic cells, then similar to 1.2 MW of solar electricity could be generated. If two horizontal-axis, at 150 m height above the ground, three 75m bladed, wind turbines were to be installed at the BIC, then the output could reach 4 MW. Furthermore, if 10,000 Jojoba trees (a species renowned for having a low demand for water, needing only five irrigations per year in Bahrain and which remain green throughout the year) are planted near the circuit, then the local micro-climate would be improved with respect to human comfort as well as the local environment becoming cleaner.