Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Effects of BDF 9198 on left ventricular contractility in advanced spontaneously hypertensive rats with heart failure

In the first part of this study, we characterized 24-month-old Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs), their heart weights, and the responses of the isolated left ventricles to electrical stimulation. In the main part of the study, we tested whether the positive inotropic effects of BDF 9198, which prevents the closure of the cardiac sodium channel, were present in senescence and heart failure. Thus, we studied the effects of BDF 9198 on the left ventricle strips of 24-month-old WKY rats (senescence) and SHRs using contractility methods. In comparison with WKY rats, the left ventricles of 24-month-old SHRs were hypertrophied and had prolonged times to peak contraction. BDF 9198 (10(-8) to 10(-6) m) was a positive inotrope on the left ventricles of WKY rats, with a maximum augmenting effect of 122% with BDF 9198 at 10(-7) m. The magnitude of the augmenting effects of BDF 9198 were reduced in SHR heart failure, with a maximum augmenting effect of 26% at 10(-7) m. BDF 9198 at 10(-6) m attenuated the responses of the SHR left ventricle to electrical stimulation. In conclusion, the potential of drugs that prevent closure of the sodium channel as positive inotropes in the treatment of heart failure should be further considered.

Diabetes detection in Australian general practice: a comparison of diagnostic criteria

Objectives: To study the influence of different diagnostic criteria on the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and characteristics of those diagnosed. Design and setting: Retrospective analysis of data from the general-practice-based Australian Diabetes Screening Study (January 1994 to June 1995). Participants: 5911 people with no previous diagnosis of diabetes, two or more symptoms or risk factors for diabetes, a random venous plasma glucose (PG) level > 5.5 mmol/L and a subsequent oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) result. Main outcome measure: Prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes based on each of three sets of criteria: 1997 criteria of the American Diabetes Association (ADA), 1996 two-step screening strategy of the Australian Diabetes Society (ADS) (modified according to ADA recommendations about lowered diagnostic fasting PG level), and 1999 definition of the World Health Organization (WHO). Results: Prevalence estimates for undiagnosed diabetes using the American (ADA), Australian (ADS) and WHO criteria (95% CI) were 9.4% (8.7%-10.1%), 16.0% (15.3%-16.7%) and 18.1% (17.1%-19.1%), respectively. People diagnosed with diabetes by fasting PG level (common to all sets of criteria) were more likely to be male and younger than those diagnosed only by 2 h glucose challenge PG level (Australian and WHO criteria only). The Australian (ADS) stepwise screening strategy detected 88% of those who met the WHO criteria for diabetes, including about three-quarters of those with isolated post-challenge hyperglycaemia. Conclusion: The WHO criteria (which include an OGTT result) are preferable to the American (ADA) criteria (which rely totally on fasting PG level), as the latter underestimated the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes by almost a half. The Australian (ADS) strategy identified most of those diagnosed with diabetes by WHO criteria.

Practices and attitudes to derivatives use in Australian commonwealth organisations

Little is known about risk management in the public sector This study reports on a survey of senior officers in Australian Commonwealth companies and statutory authorities concerning their practice and attitudes towards the use of derivative instruments for risk management. Using a variety of tests, the most important issue identified by respondents concerning the use of derivatives is for budgeting purposes. Of note, respondents rank commonly cited reasons advanced in the private sector such as reduced bankruptcy costs and taxation, as being relatively unimportant, which is consistent with arguments advanced in the paper The results also indicate that there are significant differences in the level of importance in some issues regarding derivatives use across public sector organisations, particularly those differentiated by a documented risk management plan. The study also documents for the first time the extent of derivatives use in the Australian public sector.

Perceptions of evidence-based practice: A survey of Australian occupational therapists

Evidence-based practice (EBP) requires clinicians to access, appraise and integrate research literature with clinical experience and clients' perspectives. Currently, little is known about occupational therapists' attitudes to EBP, their perception of implementation barriers or their educational needs. A questionnaire reflecting these issues was sent to a proportionate random sample of 1491 members of the national professional occupational therapy association, OT AUSTRALIA. The questionnaire was completed by 649 (44%) participants. Occupational therapists were positive about EBP with most (96%) agreeing that EBP is important to occupational therapy. Although 56% used research to make clinical decisions, more relied on clinical experience (96%), information from continuing education (82%) and colleagues (80%). Lack of time, evidence and skills were identified as the main barriers to the implementation of EBP. Over half (52%) expressed strong interest in EBP skills training, and most (80%) indicated an interest in the availability of brief summaries of evidence. Targeted educational initiatives, resources and systems are needed to support EBP in occupational therapy.

Treatment approaches for clients with a stroke-affected upper limb: Are we following evidence-based practice?

Stroke rehabilitation is an area of practice that many occupational therapists encounter during their career. The literature promotes a wide range of management techniques and support devices for people who have a stroke-affected upper limb, but little is known about the validity of those that occupational therapists actually use in practice. A questionnaire was sent to occupational therapists working in Queensland and northern New South Wales facilities (n = 35), in which adults with a stroke were likely to be treated. Eighteen respondents answered questions about the management techniques and support devices used in their facility, and their perception of the benefit of these devices in the reduction of hemiplegic shoulder pain. Results are discussed with reference to evidence-based practice and indicate an urgent need for the collation and dissemination of the best current evidence available for the management techniques and support devices used in this area, as well as further research to extend this evidence.

Clinicians' attitudes to clinical practice guidelines

To the Editor: In their systematic review of clinicians' attitudes to clinical practice guidelines, Farquhar et al1 found that, although healthcare providers reported high satisfaction with guidelines, a significant number also expressed concerns about their practicality, their role in cost-cutting and their potential for increasing litigation. The review, however, did not address other potentially significant concerns of clinicians regarding the perceived validity of guidelines and the influence of external agencies (such as the pharmaceutical industry) on treatment recommendations.