Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children’s inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey → predator) or diagnostic (predator → prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children’s inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning.

Habitat simplification increases the impact of a freshwater invasive fish

Biodiversity continues to decline at a range of spatial scales and there is an urgent requirement to understand how multiple drivers interact in causing such declines. Further, we require methodologies that can facilitate predictions of the effects of such drivers in the future. Habitat degradation and biological invasions are two of the most important threats to biodiversity and here we investigate their combined effects, both in terms of understanding and predicting impacts on native species. The predatory largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides is one of the World’s Worst Invaders, causing declines in native prey species, and its introduction often coincides with habitat simplification. We investigated the predatory functional response, as a measure of ecological impact, of juvenile largemouth bass in artificial vegetation over a range of habitat complexities (high, intermediate, low and zero). Prey, the female guppy Poecilia reticulata, were representative of native fish. As habitats became less complex, significantly more prey were consumed, since, even although attack rates declined, reduced handling times resulted in higher maximum feeding rates by bass. At all levels of habitat complexity, bass exhibited potentially population destabilising Type II functional responses, with no emergence of more stabilising Type III functional responses as often occurs in predator-prey relationships in complex habitats. Thus, habitat degradation and simplification potentially exacerbate the impact of this invasive species, but even highly complex habitats may ultimately not protect native species. The utilisation of functional responses under varying environmental contexts provides a method for the understanding and prediction of invasive species impacts.

Deep impact: in situ functional responses reveal context-dependent interactions between vertically migrating invasive and native mesopredators and shared prey

The ecological effects of invasive species depend on myriad environmental contexts, rendering understanding problematic. Functional responses provide a means to quantify resource use by consumers over short timescales and could therefore provide insight into how the effects of invasive species vary over space and time. Here, we use novel in situ microcosm experiments to track changes in the functional responses of two aquatic mesopredators, one native and the other an invader, as they undergo diel vertical migrations through a lake water column.
The Ponto–Caspian mysid, Hemimysis anomala, a known ecologically damaging invader, generally had higher a functional response towards cladoceran prey than did a native trophic analogue, Mysis salemaai. However, this differential was spatiotemporally dependent, being minimal during the day on the lake bottom, and increasing at night, particularly inshore.
Because the functional response of the native predator was spatiotemporally consistent, the above pattern was driven by changes in the invader functional response over the diel cycle. In particular, the functional response of H. anomala was significantly reduced on the lake bottom during the daytime relative to night, and predation was especially pronounced in shallow surface waters.
We demonstrate the context dependency of the effects of an invasive predator on prey populations and emphasise the utility of functional responses as tools to inform our understanding of predator–prey interactions. In situ manipulations integrate experimental rigour with field relevance and have the potential to reveal how impacts manifest over a range of spatiotemporal scales.

Predicting the predatory impacts of the “demon shrimp” Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, on native and previously introduced species

Biological invasions continue to exert pressure on ecosystems worldwide and we thus require methods that can help understand and predict the impacts of invasive species, on both native species and previously established invaders. Comparing laboratory derived functional responses among invasive and native predators has emerged as one such method, providing a robust proxy for field impacts. We used this method to examine the likely impacts of the Ponto–Caspian amphipod Dikerogammarus haemobaphes, known as the “demon shrimp”, a little investigated invader in European freshwaters that has recently established in the British Isles. We compared the functional responses on two prey species of D. haemobaphes with two other amphipod species: Dikerogammarus villosus, a congeneric invasive with well-documented impacts on macro-invertebrate communities and a native amphipod, Gammarus pulex. Prey species were native Chironomus sp. and the invasive Chelicorophium curvispinum, a tube-building amphipod also originating from the Ponto–Caspian region. D. villosus showed higher Type II functional responses towards both prey species than did D. haemobaphes and G. pulex, with the latter two predators exhibiting similar impacts on the native prey. However, D. haemobaphes had higher functional responses towards the invasive C. curvispinum than did G. pulex, both when prey individuals were tubeless and resident in their protective mud tubes. Thus, we demonstrate that functionally equivalent invasive congeners can show significantly different impacts on prey, regardless of shared evolutionary history. We also show that some predatory invaders can have impacts on native prey equivalent to native predator impacts, but that they can also exert significant impacts on previously introduced prey. We discuss the importance of invasion history and prey identity when attempting to understand and predict the impacts of new invaders.

Predicting invasive species impacts: a community module functional response approach reveals context dependencies

Summary
-Predatory functional responses play integral roles in predator–prey dynamics, and their assessment promises greater understanding and prediction of the predatory impacts of invasive species.
-Other interspecific interactions, however, such as parasitism and higher-order predation, have the potential to modify predator–prey interactions and thus the predictive capability of the comparative functional response approach.
-We used a four-species community module (higher-order predator; focal native or invasive predators; parasites of focal predators; native prey) to compare the predatory functional responses of native Gammarus duebeni celticus and invasive Gammarus pulex amphipods towards three invertebrate prey species (Asellus aquaticus, Simulium spp., Baetis rhodani), thus, quantifying the context dependencies of parasitism and a higher-order fish predator on these functional responses.
-Our functional response experiments demonstrated that the invasive amphipod had a higher predatory impact (lower handling time) on two of three prey species, which reflects patterns of impact observed in the field. The community module also revealed that parasitism had context-dependent influences, for one prey species, with the potential to further reduce the predatory impact of the invasive amphipod or increase the predatory impact of the native amphipod in the presence of a higher-order fish predator.
-Partial consumption of prey was similar for both predators and occurred increasingly in the order A. aquaticus, Simulium spp. and B. rhodani. This was associated with increasing prey densities, but showed no context dependencies with parasitism or higher-order fish predator.
-This study supports the applicability of comparative functional responses as a tool to predict and assess invasive species impacts incorporating multiple context dependencies.

A Novel Bradykinin-Related Dodecapeptide (RVALPPGFTPLR) from the Skin Secretion of the Fujian Large-Headed Frog (Limnonectes fujianensis) Exhibiting Unusual Structural and Functional Features

Bradykinin-related peptides (BRPs) are significant components of the defensive skin secretions of many anuran amphibians, and these secretions represent the source of the most diverse spectrum of such peptides so far encountered in nature. Of the many families of bioactive peptides that have been identified from this source, the BRPs uniquely appear to represent homologues of counterparts that have specific distributions and receptor targets within discrete vertebrate taxa, ranging from fishes through mammals. Their broad spectra of actions, including pain and inflammation induction and smooth muscle effects, make these peptides ideal weapons in predator deterrence. Here, we describe a novel 12-mer BRP (RVALPPGFTPLR-RVAL-(L1, T6, L8)-bradykinin) from the skin secretion of the Fujian large-headed frog (Limnonectes fujianensis). The C-terminal 9 residues of this BRP (-LPPGFTPLR) exhibit three amino acid substitutions (L/R at Position 1, T/S at Position 6 and L/F at Position 8) when compared to canonical mammalian bradykinin (BK), but are identical to the kinin sequence present within the cloned kininogen-2 from the Chinese soft-shelled turtle (Pelodiscus sinensis) and differ from that encoded by kininogen-2 of the Tibetan ground tit (Pseudopodoces humilis) at just a single site (F/L at Position 8). These data would imply that the novel BRP is an amphibian defensive agent against predation by sympatric turtles and also that the primary structure of the avian BK, ornithokinin (RPPGFTPLR), is not invariant within this taxon. Synthetic RVAL-(L1, T6, L8)-bradykinin was found to be an antagonist of BK-induced rat tail artery smooth muscle relaxation acting via the B2-receptor.

Predation in the marine intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus Leach: implications of inter- and intra-individual variation

Studies of competition, predator–prey dynamics and food webs typically consider conspecifics as equal, however, individuals from the same population that are seemingly identical can show considerable variation with regards to a number of processes. Such phenomena may be demonstrated in terms of diet, and the quantities and types of resources that are consumed are commonly considered. The marine amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, a recently demonstrated predator on intertidal rocky shores, has been shown to consume a wide range of food types but it is unknown how this may vary between individuals. Here, we investigated the variation that occurs both among and within individuals of a population of E. marinus with respect to the mean numbers consumed of a common prey item, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, by comparing the length of starvation times, used as a proxy for hunger level, individuals maintained without food for up to 24 h consumed significantly less prey during feeding trials than those starved for 48 h and longer. The degree of inter-individual variation within each starvation period was also found to differ, with greater variation among individuals starved for shorter periods of time than those starved for longer time periods. Secondly, we tested whether individual amphipods tracked over time consumed consistently similar numbers of prey or whether they showed intra-individual variation, and if so, to what degree. We found that the numbers of prey consumed per individual could be predicted in the short-term between consecutive feeding trials, however over the long-term this relationship broke down. These results are discussed with respect to potential physiological and behavioural mechanisms, as well as the implications that such variation may have for stability of prey populations in the field.

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

Establishing a nurse practitioner collaborative: evolution, development, and outcomes

The first Australian palliative care nurse practitioner (NP) was endorsed in 2003. In 2009 the Victoria Department of Health funded the development of the Victorian Palliative Care Nurse Practitioner Collaborative (VPCNPC). Its aim was to promote the NP role, develop resources, and provide education and mentorship to NPs, nurse practitioner candidates (NPCs), and health service managers. Four key objectives were developed: identify the demographic profile of palliative care NPCs in Victoria; develop an education curriculum and practical resources to support the training and education of palliative care NPCs and NPs; provide mentorship to NPs, NPCs, and service managers; and ensure effective communication with all key stakeholders. An NPC survey was also conducted to explore NPC demographics, models of care, the hours of study required for the role, the mentoring process, and education needs. This paper reports on the establishment of the VPCNPC, the steps taken to achieve its objectives, and the results of the survey. The NP role in palliative care in Australia continues to evolve, and the VPCNPC provides a structure and resources to clearly articulate the benefits of the role to nursing and clinical services. The advanced clinical practice role of the nurse practitioner (NP) has been well established in North America for several decades and across a range of specialties (Ryan-Woolley et al, 2007; Poghosyan et al, 2012). The NP role in Australia and the UK is a relatively new initiative that commenced in the early 2000s (Gardner et al, 2009). There are over 1000 NPs across all states and territories of Australia, of whom approximately 130 work in the state of Victoria (Victorian Government Health Information, 2012). Australian NPs work across a range of specialties, including palliative, emergency, older person, renal, cardiac, respiratory, and mental health care. There has been increasing focus nationally and internationally on developing academic programmes specifically for nurses working toward NP status (Gardner et al, 2006). There has been less emphasis on identifying the comprehensive clinical support requirements for NPs and NP candidates (NPCs) to ensure they meet all registration requirements to achieve and/or maintain endorsement, or on articulating the ongoing requirements for NPs once endorsed. Historically in Australia there has been a lack of clarity and limited published evidence on the benefits of the NP role for patients, carers, and health services (Quaglietti et al, 2004; Gardner and Gardner, 2005; Bookbinder et al, 2011; Dyar et al, 2012). An NP is considered to be at the apex of clinical nursing practice. The NP role typically entails comprehensively assessing and managing patients, prescribing medicines, making direct referrals to other specialists and services, and ordering diagnostic investigations (Australian Nursing and Midwifery Council, 2009). All NPs in Australia are required to meet the following generic criteria: be a registered nurse, have completed a Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia approved postgraduate university Master's (nurse practitioner) degree programme, and be able to demonstrate a minimum of 3 years' experience in an advanced practice role (Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia, 2011). An NPC in Victoria is a registered nurse employed by a service or organisation to work toward meeting the academic and clinical requirements for national endorsement as an NP. During the period of candidacy, which is of variable duration, NPCs consolidate their competence to work at the advanced practice level of an NP. The candidacy period is a process of learning the new role while engaging with mentors (medical and nursing) and accessing other learning opportunities both within and outside one's organisation to meet the educational requirements. Integral to the NP role is the development of a model of care that is responsive to identified service delivery gaps that can be addressed by the skills, knowledge, and expertise of an NP. These are unique to each individual service. The practice of an Australian NP is guided by national standards (Nursing and Midwifery Board of Australia 2014). It is defined by four overarching standards: clinical, education, research, and leadership. Following the initial endorsement of four Victorian palliative care NPs in 2005, there was a lull in recruitment. The Victoria Department of Health (DH) recognised the potential benefits of NPs for health services, and in 2008 it provided funding for Victorian public health services to scope palliative care NP models of care that could enhance service delivery and patient outcomes. The scoping strategy was effective and led to the appointment of 16 palliative care nurses to NPC positions over the ensuing 3 years. The NPCs work across a broad range of care settings, including inpatient, community, and outpatient in metropolitan, regional, and rural areas of Victoria. At the same time, the DH also funded the Centre for Palliative Care to establish the Victorian Palliative Care Nurse Practitioner Collaborative (VPCNPC) to support the NPs and NPCs. The Centre is a state-wide service that is part of St Vincent's Hospital Melbourne and a collaborative Centre of the University of Melbourne. Its primary function is to provide training and conduct research in palliative care. The purpose of the VPCNPC was to provide support and mentorship and develop resources targeted at palliative care NPs, NPCs, and health service managers. Membership of the VPCNPC is open to all NPs, NPCs, health service managers, and nurses interested in the NP role. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of the VPCNPC, its actions, and the outcomes of these actions.

The effects of transportation stress and barnacle fouling on predation rates of starfish (Asterias rubens) on mussels (Mytilus edulis).

The starfish, Asterias rubens, is widely distributed throughout the northern hemisphere and is an important predator on benthic mussel (Mytilus edulis) beds. Whilst several studies have examined how the size of individuals determines this predator–prey relationship, less is known about how the physiological condition of the prey (mussels) and the extent of their fouling may alter these relationships. Such issues are of particular interest to those working within the benthic mussel cultivation industry to inform best management practice and to help minimise losses during the aquaculture process. The potential role of starfish in the removal of epibiotic barnacles from mussels, the presence of which increases processing costs within the industry, is also of interest. We tested whether stressing mussels by aerial exposure for 48 h and whether the extent of barnacle fouling on mussels affected the feeding rates of three different size classes of starfish feeding on two different size classes of mussels. Feeding rates on stressed and unstressed mussels were similar for each starfish–mussel size combination. Barnacle fouling reduced the feeding rate of medium-sized starfish on larger-sized mussels. We also observed starfish, of all size classes, preying directly on the epibiotic barnacles on mussels, however, feeding rates were low and considered unlikely to reduce the extent of fouling on mussels. Our findings show that the predator–prey relationship between starfish and mussels does not differ between unstressed mussels and those experimentally stressed by aerial exposure for 48 h so that this level of stress is unlikely to affect predation rates by A. rubens following relaying in commercial operations. Whilst barnacle fouling suppressed predation rates in one of our experimental treatments, it does not appear that fouling by barnacles would provide a significant refuge from predation for the majority of mussels in benthic aquaculture stocks. Instead we found the size relationship between starfish and mussels was more important in determining predation rates. Starfish are also unlikely to help reduce barnacle fouling on cultured mussels by preying solely on fouling barnacles and the need to control starfish predation during culture remains.

Effects of baited crab pots on cultivated mussel (Mytilus edulis) survival rates

The shore crab, Carcinus maenas, is recognized as a voracious predator of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, having the potential to greatly reduce stocks in the benthic cultivation industry. As a consequence, baited crab pots are often deployed on and around cultivated benthic mussel beds to trap and remove crabs, in an attempt to reduce predatory pressure. Little is known about how C. maenas behaves around crab pots, but for many other crustacean fisheries, the trapping efficiency of pots is often low. Crabs may be attracted towards but not enter pots, instead feeding on cultivated mussels outside pots on the surrounding substratum. We tested whether the rate of loss of mussels attached to plates differed in areas next to baited pots compared with unbaited pots and to areas without any pots, at two sea loughs (60 km apart) in Northern Ireland. In Strangford Lough, more mussels were lost from plates next to baited pots than the other treatments. In Carlingford Lough, however, we found no difference in the number of mussels lost from plates in any treatment. This difference could be attributed to the different assemblages of mobile benthic predators at the two loughs. The presence of the starfish Asterias rubens, which was absent from experimental sites in Carlingford Lough, was thought to be responsible for increased predation rates near baited pots in Strangford. It is, therefore, important to consider local predator communities when deploying crab pots as a predator mitigation technique to ensure predation rates are in fact reduced and not enhanced. This study is of relevance not only to attempts to limit predation on commercial stocks of benthic cultivated mussels but also in situations where baited traps are deployed close to species vulnerable to mobile benthic predators.

A predatory patchwork:membrane and surface structures of Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus

Predatory Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus bacteria are remarkable in that they attach to, penetrate and digest other Gram-negative bacteria, living and replicating within them until all resources are exhausted, when they escape the prey ghost to invade fresh prey. Remarkable remodeling of both predator and prey cell occurs during this process to allow the Bdellovibrio to exploit the intracellular niche they have worked so hard to enter, keeping the prey "bdelloplast" intact until the end of predatory growth. If one views motile non-predatory bacteria in a light microscope, one is immediately struck by how rare it is for bacteria to collide. This highlights how the cell surface of Bdellovibrio must be specialized and adapted to allow productive collisions and further to allow entry into the prey periplasm and subsequent secretion of hydrolytic enzymes to digest it. Bdellovibrio can, however, also be made to grow artificially without prey; thus, they have a large genome containing both predatory genes and genes for saprophytic heterotrophic growth. Thus, the membrane and outer surface layers are a patchwork of proteins encompassing not only those that have a sole purpose in heterotrophic growth but also many more that are specialized or employed to attach to, enter, remodel, kill and ultimately digest prey cells. There is much that is as yet not understood, but molecular genetic and post-genomic approaches to microbial physiology have enhanced the pioneering biochemical work of four decades ago in characterizing some of the key events and surface protein requirements for prey attack.

Bdellovibrio predation in the presence of decoys:Three-way bacterial interactions revealed by mathematical and experimental analyses

Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus is a small, gram-negative, motile bacterium that preys upon other gram-negative bacteria, including several known human pathogens. Its predation efficiency is usually studied in pure cultures containing solely B. bacteriovorus and a suitable prey. However, in natural environments, as well as in any possible biomedical uses as an antimicrobial, Bdellovibrio is predatory in the presence of diverse decoys, including live nonsusceptible bacteria, eukaryotic cells, and cell debris. Here we gathered and mathematically modeled data from three-member cultures containing predator, prey, and nonsusceptible bacterial decoys. Specifically, we studied the rate of predation of planktonic late-log-phase Escherichia coli S17-1 prey by B. bacteriovorus HD100, both in the presence and in the absence of Bacillus subtilis nonsporulating strain 671, which acted as a live bacterial decoy. Interestingly, we found that although addition of the live Bacillus decoy did decrease the rate of Bdellovibrio predation in liquid cultures, this addition also resulted in a partially compensatory enhancement of the availability of prey for predation. This effect resulted in a higher final yield of Bdellovibrio than would be predicted for a simple inert decoy. Our mathematical model accounts for both negative and positive effects of predator-prey-decoy interactions in the closed batch environment. In addition, it informs considerations for predator dosing in any future therapeutic applications and sheds some light on considerations for modeling the massively complex interactions of real mixed bacterial populations in nature.

Constructing random matrices to represent real ecosystems

Models of complex systems with n components typically have order n² parameters because each component can potentially interact with every other. When it is impractical to measure these parameters, one may choose random parameter values and study the emergent statistical properties at the system level. Many influential results in theoretical ecology have been derived from two key assumptions: that species interact with random partners at random intensities and that intraspecific competition is comparable between species. Under these assumptions, community dynamics can be described by a community matrix that is often amenable to mathematical analysis. We combine empirical data with mathematical theory to show that both of these assumptions lead to results that must be interpreted with caution. We examine 21 empirically derived community matrices constructed using three established, independent methods. The empirically derived systems are more stable by orders of magnitude than results from random matrices. This consistent disparity is not explained by existing results on predator-prey interactions. We investigate the key properties of empirical community matrices that distinguish them from random matrices. We show that network topology is less important than the relationship between a species’ trophic position within the food web and its interaction strengths. We identify key features of empirical networks that must be preserved if random matrix models are to capture the features of real ecosystems.

Fasciola hepatica:the effect of the microtubule inhibitors colchicine and tubulozole-C on the ultrastructure of the adult fluke

The effect of the microtubule inhibitors colchicine (1 x 10(-3) M) and tubulozole-C(1 x 10(-6) M) on the ultrastructure of adult Fasciola hepatica has been determined in vitro by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), using both intact flukes and tissue-slice material. With colchicine treatment, the apical membrane of the tegument became increasingly convoluted and blebbed, while accumulations of T1 secretory bodies occurred in the basal region of the syncytium, leading to progressively fewer secretory bodies in the syncytium. In the tegumental cells there were distinct accumulations of T1 secretory bodies around the Golgi complexes, which remained active for up to 12 h incubation. Tubulozole-treated flukes showed more severe effects, with initial accumulations of secretory bodies, both at the tegumental apex and base. This was followed in the later time-periods by the sloughing of the tegumental syncytium. In the underlying tegumental cells, the granular endoplasmic reticulum (GER) cisternae were swollen and disrupted, becoming concentrated around the nucleus. The Golgi complexes were dispersed to the periphery of the cells and gradually disappeared from the cytoplasm. After treatment with both drugs, the cell population in the vitelline follicles was altered, with an abnormally large proportion of stem cells and relatively few intermediate type 1 cells. The nurse cell cytoplasm became fragmented and was no longer in contact with the vitelline cells, while the shell globule clusters within the intermediate type 2 and mature cells were loosely packed. In the mature vitelline cells, 'yolk' globules and glycogen deposits became fewer than normal and lipid droplets were observed. The results are discussed in relation to the different modes of action of the two drugs and potential significance of this to anthelmintic (benzimidazole) therapy.