Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

Fast Iterative Division of p-adic Numbers

A fast iterative scheme based on the Newton method is described for finding the reciprocal of a finite segment p-adic numbers (Hensel code). The rate of generation of the reciprocal digits per step can be made quadratic or higher order by a proper choice of the starting value and the iterating function. The extension of this method to find the inverse transform of the Hensel code of a rational polynomial over a finite field is also indicated.

Phylogeography of the green turtle, Chelonia mydas, in the Southwest Indian Ocean

Patterns of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation were used to analyse the population genetic structure of southwestern Indian Ocean green turtle (Chelonia mydas) populations. Analysis of sequence variation over 396 bp of the mtDNA control region revealed seven haplotypes among 288 individuals from 10 nesting sites in the Southwest Indian Ocean. This is the first time that Atlantic Ocean haplotypes have been recorded among any Indo-Pacific nesting populations. Previous studies indicated that the Cape of Good Hope was a major biogeographical barrier between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans because evidence for gene flow in the last 1.5 million years has yet to emerge. This study, by sampling localities adjacent to this barrier, demonstrates that recent gene flow has occurred from the Atlantic Ocean into the Indian Ocean via the Cape of Good Hope. We also found compelling genetic evidence that green turtles nesting at the rookeries of the South Mozambique Channel (SMC) and those nesting in the North Mozambique Channel (NMC) belong to separate genetic stocks. Furthermore, the SMC could be subdivided in two different genetic stocks, one in Europa and the other one in Juan de Nova. We suggest that this particular genetic pattern along the Mozambique Channel is attributable to a recent colonization from the Atlantic Ocean and is maintained by oceanic conditions in the northern and southern Mozambique Channel that influence early stages in the green turtle life cycle.

Review of Nezara viridula (L.) management strategies and potential for IPM in field crops with emphasis on Australia

Nezara viridula (L.) is a cosmopolitan, polyphagous heteropteran that causes economic damage to many crop species. At present, control of N. viridula in Australia and other countries relies heavily upon insecticides, most of which are disruptive to beneficial insects, constituting a constraint on integrated pest management (IPM). Much research has been conducted into non-chemical control methods for N. viridula. This paper reviews the potential for and limitations of sterile insect technique, classical, inundative and conservation biological control, and trap cropping. None of these techniques appear to be adequate for control of N. viridula when used alone but there is scope for these non-chemical approaches to be adopted for use in integrated management of this pest. A proposal is given for one such integrated approach for future development. It includes biopesticides, trap crops and carefully targeted habitat manipulation to enhance arthropod natural enemies as well as area-wide management and grower education.

Lumometsän syli : Anni Swanin satusymbolismi 1896-1923

Lumometsän syli, Anni Swanin satusymbolismi 1896-1923 on suomenkielisen satukirjallisuuden poetiikkaa ja 1900-luvun alun modernia naiseutta selvittävä feministiseen tutkimustraditioon liittyvä tutkimus. Sen kohteena ovat lasten- ja nuortenkirjailija Anni Swanin (1875-1958) satukokoelmat vuosilta 1901-1923 ja Uusi Suometar -lehden sadunomaiset novellit vuosilta 1896-1904. Tutkimus tuo uutta tietoa lastenkirjallisuuden osalta 1900-luvun alun modernin ihmisen problematiikasta. Se sisältää naissubjektin kehityskaaren ja sisäisen kasvun kohti naistaiteilijuutta. Yksityiskohtaisen tarkastelun kohteina ovat sadut Veli ja sisar (1917), Ihmekukka (1905), Marjaanan helmikruunu (1912), Aaltojen salaisuus (1901), Jääkukka (1905), Tyttö ja kuolema (1917), Merenkuningatar ja hänen poikansa (1905), Lumolinna (1905) ja Tarina Kultasirkasta (1901). Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan Swanin satujen poeettista kieltä ja naiseuden tematiikkaa ranskalaisen postmodernin ajan feministisen viitekehyksen valossa. Siinä keskeisiä ovat Julia Kristevan psykoanalyyttispohjaiset näkemykset ja Hélène Cixous´n sekä Luce Irigarayn ajatukset feminiinisestä kirjoituksesta. Sadut kontekstualisoidaan ajankohdan symbolistiseen taidevirtaukseen ja Suomen taiteen kultakauteen. Satuja tulkitaan naiskirjailijan lajina ja erityisenä naisen metaforisen ilmaisun muotona. Satujen feministinen lukutapa purkaa perinteisiä lukemiskonventioita ja merkitsee satutekstin lukemista "toisin". Se avaa varhaista modernia naiseutta ja sille ominaista naisen ilmaisukielen erityisyyttä sekä mykkää ei-kielellistä, melankolian ilmaisua. Tutkimus tuo esiin uudenlaisen naiskirjailijan aistimusvoimaisen kielen. Swanin satusymbolismi on luonnon kauneuden synesteettista ja aistimusvoimaista kerrontaa, jolle on luonteenomaista aistiestetiikka, metaforisuus, metonymisyys ja metamorfoosit. Swan vahvistaa osaltaan naisen sankaruutta, omaa ilmaisukieltä ja ääntä. Tuloksena paljastuu satuperinteeseen verrattuna uudenlaisia tyttöyden, äitiyden, naistaiteilijuuden ja perheen malleja ja niiden representaatioita. Satumallit osoittautuvat aikanaan moderneiksi tyttösankareiksi, osin ambivalenteiksi uudenlaista naiseutta ja suhteessa oloa heijastaviksi ja ovat siten varhaisia feministisen sadun tunnusmerkkejä. Tutkimus selvittää, miten Swan rakentaa omaperäisen satusymboliikan. Satumetsä on luonnonkauniin suomalaismetsän symbolinen mielenmaisema ja samanaikaisesti sadun myyttis-symbolinen topos. Swanin luontokäsitys sisältää luonnonsuojelun ja varhaisen ekokriittisen näkemyksen. Tutkimus osoittaa Swanin satujen kytkeytyvän 1900-luvun alun modernismiin ja Suomen taiteen kultakauteen. Swan on suomenkielisen symbolistisen taidesadun kehittäjä ja feministisen sadun aloittaja.

Testing approximate theories of first-order phase transitions on the two-dimensional Potts model

The two-dimensional,q-state (q>4) Potts model is used as a testing ground for approximate theories of first-order phase transitions. In particular, the predictions of a theory analogous to the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff theory of freezing are compared with those of ordinary mean-field (Curie-Wiess) theory. It is found that the Curie-Weiss theory is a better approximation than the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff theory, even though the former neglects all fluctuations. It is shown that the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff theory overestimates the effects of fluctuations in this system. The reasons behind the failure of the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff approximation and the suitability of using the two-dimensional Potts model as a testing ground for these theories are discussed.

The onset of warps in Spitzer observations of edge-on spiral galaxies

We analyse warps in the nearby edge-on spiral galaxies observed in the Spitzer/Infrared Array Camera (IRAC)4.5-mu m band. In our sample of 24 galaxies, we find evidence of warp in 14 galaxies. We estimate the observed onset radii for the warps in a subsample of 10 galaxies. The dark matter distribution in each of these galaxies are calculated using the mass distribution derived from the observed light distribution and the observed rotation curves. The theoretical predictions of the onset radii for the warps are then derived by applying a self-consistent linear response theory to the obtained mass models for six galaxies with rotation curves in the literature. By comparing the observed onset radii to the theoretical ones, we find that discs with constant thickness can not explain the observations; moderately flaring discs are needed. The required flaring is consistent with the observations. Our analysis shows that the onset of warp is not symmetric in our sample of galaxies. We define a new quantity called the onset-asymmetry index and study its dependence on galaxy properties. The onset asymmetries in warps tend to be larger in galaxies with smaller dis scalelengths. We also define and quantify the global asymmetry in the stellar light distribution, that we call the edge-on asymmetry in edge-on galaxies. It is shown that in most cases the onset asymmetry in warp is actually anticorrelated with the measured edge-on asymmetry in our sample of edge-on galaxies and this could plausibly indicate that the surrounding dark matter distribution is asymmetric.

Influence of soil organic amendments on suppression of the burrowing nematode, Radopholus similis, on the growth of bananas.

Radopholus similis is a major constraint to banana production in Australia and growers have relied on nematicides to manage production losses. The use of organic amendments is one method that may reduce the need for nematicides, but there is limited knowledge of the influence of organic amendments on endo-migratory nematodes, such as R. similis. Nine different amendments, namely, mill mud, mill ash, biosolids, municipal waste compost, banana residue, grass hay, legume hay, molasses and calcium silicate were applied to the three major soil types of the wet tropics region used for banana production. The nutrient content of the amendments was also determined. Banana plants were inoculated with R. similis and grown in the soil-amendment mix for 12-weeks in a glasshouse experiment. Assessments of plant growth, plant-parasitic nematodes and soil nematode community characteristics were made at the termination of the experiment. Significant suppression of plant-parasitic nematodes occurred in soils amended with legume hay, grass hay, banana residue and mill mud relative to untreated soil. These amendments were found to have the highest N and C content. The application of banana residue and mill mud significantly increased shoot dry weight at the termination of the experiment relative to untreated soil. Furthermore, the applications of banana residue, grass hay, mill mud and municipal waste compost increased the potential for suppression of plant-parasitic nematodes through antagonistic activity. The application of amendments that are high in C and N appeared to be able to induce suppression of plant-parasitic nematodes in bananas, by developing a more favourable environment for antagonistic organisms.

Origin of leaf rust adult plant resistance gene Rph20 in barley

Rph20 is the only reported, simply inherited gene conferring moderate to high levels of adult plant resistance (APR) to leaf rust (Puccinia hordei Otth) in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Key parental genotypes were examined to determine the origin of Rph20 in two-rowed barley. The Dutch cultivar 'Vada' (released in the 1950s) and parents, 'Hordeum laevigatum' and 'Gull' ('Gold'), along with the related cultivar 'Emir' (a derivative of 'Delta'), were assessed for APR to P. hordei in a disease screening nursery. The marker bPb-0837-PCR, co-located with Rph20 on the short arm of chromosome 5H (5HS), was used to screen genotypes for the resistance allele, Rph20.ai. Results from phenotypic assessment and DNA analysis confirmed that Rph20 originated from the landrace 'H. laevigatum' (i.e., Hordeum vulgare subsp. vulgare). Tracing back this gene through the pedigrees of two-rowed barley cultivars, indicated that Rph20 has contributed APR to P. hordei for more than 60 years. Although there have been no reports of an Rph20-virulent pathotype, the search for alternative sources of APR should continue to avoid widespread reliance upon a single resistance factor.

Walter, Greta and Karl Loewenstein Collection. 1821-2004 Bulk: 1933-1989

This collection holds papers of members of the Loewenstein family, especially Walter and Karl Loewenstein. Among the papers here are examples of Walter Loewenstein's writing, documentation of life in Rietberg in Westphalia (Germany) during the late 1930s and early 1940s, and correspondence concerning the fate of several family members during this time. Papers relating to Karl Loewenstein focus on his wartime activities. The genealogy of the Brandenstein family is also represented here along with a few papers of other family members. The collection consists of unpublished manuscripts, correspondence, photographs, official and restitution documentation, notebooks and notes, genealogical research, and fliers.

Permutander oder die Schwierigkeit sich selbst auf die Spur zu kommen.

Manuscript of fictionalized autobiographical novel

Finding My Way: Protocol of a randomised controlled trial evaluating an internet self-help program for cancer-related distress

Background A cancer diagnosis elicits greater distress than any other medical diagnosis, and yet very few studies have evaluated the efficacy of structured online self-help therapeutic programs to alleviate this distress. This study aims to assess the efficacy over time of an internet Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (iCBT) intervention (‘Finding My Way’) in improving distress, coping and quality of life for individuals with a recent diagnosis of early stage cancer of any type. Methods/Design The study is a multi-site Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) seeking to enrol 188 participants who will be randomised to either the Finding My Way Intervention or an attention-control condition. Both conditions are delivered online; with 6 modules released once per week, and an additional booster module released one month after program-completion. Participants complete online questionnaires on 4 occasions: at baseline (immediately prior to accessing the modules); post-treatment (immediately after program-completion); then three and six months later. Primary outcomes are general distress and cancer-specific distress, with secondary outcomes including Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL), coping, health service utilisation, intervention adherence, and user satisfaction. A range of baseline measures will be assessed as potential moderators of outcomes. Eligible participants are individuals recently diagnosed with any type of cancer, being treated with curative intent, aged over 18 years with sufficient English language literacy, internet access and an active email account and phone number. Participants are blinded to treatment group allocation. Randomisation is computer generated and stratified by gender. Discussion Compared to the few prior published studies, Finding My Way will be the first adequately powered trial to offer an iCBT intervention to curatively treated patients of heterogeneous cancer types in the immediate post-diagnosis/treatment period. If found efficacious, Finding My Way will assist with overcoming common barriers to face-to-face therapy in a cost-effective and accessible way, thus helping to reduce distress after cancer diagnosis and consequently decrease the cancer burden for individuals and the health system. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000001​796 16.10.13

Gust Response of Rotor and Propeller Systems

The influence of nonstationary turbulence on rotor and propeller systems is discussed. The review is made from a common analytical basis of nonstationary approach, with emphasis on concepts rather than on details. The necessity of such an approach and its feasibility for predicting a complete set of gust and response statistics together with correlations with somewhat limited test data are appraised.

Diffusion of localized optical excitations and trap emission in ruby

Using the critical percolation conductance method the energy-dependent diffusion coefficient associated with thermally assisted transfer of the R1 line excitation between single Cr3+ ions with strain-induced randomness has been calculated in the 4A2 to E(2E) transition energies. For localized states sufficiently far away from the mobility edge the energy transfer is dominated by dipolar interactions, while very close to the mobility edge it is determined by short-range exchange interactions. Using the above energy-dependent diffusion coefficient a macroscopic diffusion equation is solved for the rate of light emission by Cr3+ ion-pair traps to which single-ion excitations are transferred. The dipolar mechanism leads to good agreement with recent measurements of the pair emission rate by Koo et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett., vol.35, p.1669 (1975)) right up to the mobility edge.

Ellipsometric study of Atomic Layer Deposited TiO2 thin films

Atomic layer deposition was used to obtain TiO2 thin films on Si (100) and fused quartz, using a novel metal organic precursor. The films were grown at 400 degrees C, varying the amount of oxygen used as the reactive gas. X-ray diffraction showed the films to be crystalline, with a mixture of anatase and rutile phases. To investigate their optical properties, ellipsometric measurements were made in the UV-Vis-NIR range (300-1700 nm). Spectral distribution of various optical constants like refractive index (n), absorption index (k), transmittance (T), reflectance (R), absorption (A) were calculated by employing Bruggemann's effective medium approximation (BEMA) and Maxwell-Garnet effective medium approximation, in conjunction with the Cauchy and Forouhi-Bloomer (FB) dispersion relations. A layered optical model has been proposed which gives the thickness, elemental and molecular composition, amorphicity and roughness (morphology) of the TiO2 film surface and and the film/substrate interface, as a function of oxygen flow rate The spectral distribution of the optical band gap (E-g(opt)), complex dielectric constants (epsilon' and epsilon''), and optical conductivity (sigma(opt)), has also been determined.