Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Biosensor-based diagnostics of contaminated groundwater: assessment and remediation strategy

Shallow groundwater beneath a former airfield site in southern England has been heavily contaminated with a wide range of chlorinated solvents. The feasibility of using bacterial biosensors to complement chemical analysis and enable cost-effective, and focussed sampling has been assessed as part of a site evaluation programme. Five different biosensors, three metabolic (Vibrio fischeri, Pseudomonas fluorescens 10568 and Escherichia coli HB101) and two catabolic (Pseudomonas putida TVA8 and E. coli DH5alpha), were employed to identify areas where the availability and toxicity of pollutants is of most immediate environmental concern. The biosensors used showed different sensitivities to each other and to the groundwater samples tested. There was generally a good agreement with chemical analyses. The potential efficacy of remediation strategies was explored by coupling sample manipulation to biosensor tests. Manipulation involved sparging and charcoal treatment procedures to simulate remediative engineering solutions. Sparging was sufficient at most locations. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.

EU Policies on Bioenergy and their Potential Clash with the WTO

The paper outlines EU policy on bioenergy, including biofuels, in the context of its policy initiatives to promote renewable energy to combat greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The EU's Member States are responsible for implementing EU policy: thus, the UK's Renewables Obligation on electricity suppliers and its Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation and road-fuel tax rebates are examined. It is unlikely that EU policy is in conflict with the WTO Agreement on Agriculture or that on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, but its provisions on environmental sustainability criteria could be problematic.

Gas phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reactions of silylene with the methylsilanes. Absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, RRKM modelling and potential energy surfaces

Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).

First detection of methylgermylene in the gas phase and time-resolved study of some of its reactions

A new transient species has been produced and detected by the gas-phase, 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 1,3,4-trimethylgermacyclopent-3-ene, TMGCP. The species has strong visible absorptions in the wavelength region 450−520 nm (maximum at 485 nm) and is attributed to the germylene, MeGeH. Time-resolved kinetic studies have led to the first rate constants for its reactions with GeH4, Me2GeH2, C2H2, C2H4, C3H6, i-C4H8, TMGCP, MeOH, HCl, and SO2. The reactivity of MeGeH is compared to those of GeH2 and GeMe2. The Me-for-H substituent effect varies according to reaction type and is not constant from GeH2 to MeGeH to GeMe2.

Dicopper(II) complexes of a new di-para-xylyldioxatetraazamacrocycle and cascade species with dicarboxylate anions: thermodynamics and structural properties

The new dioxatetraazamacrocycle (L-1) was synthesized by a 2 + 2 condensation and characterized. Stability constants of its copper(II) complexes were determined by spectrophotometry in DMSO at 298.2 K in 0. 10 mol dm(-3) KClO4. Mainly dinuclear complexes are formed and the presence of mononuclear species is dependent on the counterion (Cl- or ClO4-). The association constants of the dinuclear copper(II) complexes with dicarboxylate anions [oxalate (oxa(2-)), malonate (mal(2-)), succinate (suc(2-)), and glutarate (glu(2-))] were also determined by spectrophotometry at 298.2 K in DMSO, and it was found that values decrease with an increase of the alkyl chain between the carboxylate groups. X-Band EPR spectra of the dicopper(II) complexes and of their cascade species in frozen DMSO exhibit dipole-dipole coupling, and their simulation, together with their UV-vis spectra, showed that the copper centres of the complexes in solution had square pyramidal geometries though with different distortions. From the experimental data, it was also possible to predict the Cu...Cu distances, the minimum being found at 6.4 angstrom for the (Cu2LCl4)-Cl-1 complex and then successively this distance slightly increases when the chloride anions are replaced by dicarboxylate anions, from 6.6 angstrom for oxa(2-) to 7.8 for glu(2-). The crystal structures of the dinuclear copper cascade species with oxa(2-) and suc(2-) were determined and showed one anion bridging both copper centres and Cu...Cu distances of 5.485(7) angstrom and 6.442(8) angstrom, respectively.

Association of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids with stability of atherosclerotic plaques: a randomised controlled trial

Background N-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) from oily fish protect against death from cardiovascular disease. We aimed to assess the hypothesis that incorporation of n-3 and n-6 PUFAs into advanced atherosclerotic plaques increases and decreases plaque stability, respectively. Methods We did a randomised controlled trial of patients awaiting carotid endarterectomy. We randomly allocated patients control, sunflower oil (n-6), or fish-oil (n-3) capsules until surgery. Primary outcome was plaque morphology indicative of stability or instability, and outcome measures were concentrations of EPA, DHA, and linoleic acid in carotid plaques; plaque morphology; and presence of macrophages in plaques. Analysis was per protocol. Findings 188 patients were enrolled and randomised; 18 withdrew and eight were excluded. Duration of oil treatment was 7-189 days (median 42) and did not differ between groups. The proportions of EPA and DHA were higher in carotid plaque fractions in patients receiving fish oil compared with those receiving control (absolute difference 0.5 [95% CI 0.3-0.7], 0.4 [0.1-0.6], and 0.2 [0.1-0.4] g/100 g total fatty acids for EPA; and 0.3 [0.0-0.8], 0.4 [0.1-0.7], and 0.3 [0.1-0.6] g/100 g total fatty acids for DHA; in plaque phospholipids, cholesteryl esters, and triacylglycerols, respectively). Sunflower oil had little effect on the fatty acid composition of lipid fractions. Fewer plaques from patients being treated with fish oil had thin fibrous caps and signs of inflammation and more plaques had thick fibrous caps and no signs of inflammation, compared with plaques in patients in the control and sunflower oil groups (odds ratio 0.52 [95% CI 0.24-0.89] and 1.19 [1.02-1.57] vs control; 0.49 [0.23-0.90] and 1.16 [1.01-1.53] vs sunflower oil). The number of macrophages in plaques from patients receiving fish oil was lower than in the other two groups. Carotid plaque morphology and infiltration by macrophages did not differ between control and sunflower oil groups. Interpretation Atherosclerotic plaques readily incorporate n-3 PUFAs from fish-oil supplementation, inducing changes that can enhance stability of atherosclerotic plaques. By contrast, increased consumption of n-6 PUFAs does not affect carotid plaque fatty-acid composition or stability over the time course studied here. Stability of plaques could explain reductions in non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular events associated with increased n-3 PUFA intake.

Probiotics for the developing world

Every minute of every day more and more children die of diarrheal diseases and women, and girls become infected by HIV An estimated 7,000 women become infected each day. While many valiant efforts are being made to address these issues, until now they have proved to be markedly ineffective. The notion that lactic acid bacteria, formulated into food or dietary supplements, could have a role to play in slowing the morbidity and mortality associated with HIV/AIDS and gastroenteritis, is built upon sound clinical findings and scientific investigations, yet no international efforts have been placed in this approach, to date. We hereby summarize the reasons why such efforts should be made, provide an example of one model being set up in sub-Saharan Africa, and challenge the international community to consider the potential benefits of probiotics, especially for communities not reached by governmental and nongovernmental agencies.

Effects of variation in the palm stearin: palm olein ratio on the crystallisation of a low-trans shortening

Changes in the theological properties during crystallisation and in the crystal size and morphology of blends containing rapeseed oil with varying percentages of palm stearin (POs) and palm olein (POf) have been studied. The crystals formed from all three blends were studied by confocal laser scanning microscopy, light microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy, which revealed the development of clusters of 3-5 individual elementary "spherulites" in the early stages of crystallisation. The saturated triacylglycerol content of the solid crystals separated at the onset of crystallisation was much greater than that in the total fat. Fat blends with a higher content of palm stearin had a more rapid nucleation rate when observed by light microscopy, and this caused an earlier change in the rheological properties of the fat during crystallisation. Using a low torque amplitude (0.005 Pa, which was within the linear viscoelastic region of all samples studied) and a frequency of 1 Hz, the viscoelastic properties of melted fat during cooling were studied. All samples, prior to crystallisation, showed weak viscoelastic liquid behaviour (G '', loss modulus >G', storage modulus). After crystallisation a more "solid like" behaviour was observed (G' similar to or greater than G ''). The blend having the highest concentration of POs was found to have the earliest onset of crystallisation (27% w/w POs; 12 mins, 22% w/w POs; 13.5 mins, 17% w/w POs, 15 mins, respectively). However, there were no significant differences in the time to the point when G' became greater than G' among the three blends. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in cell morphology, lipid and apo B secretory capacity in caco-2 cells following long term treatment with saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids

The suitability of the caco-2 cell line as a model for studying the long term impact of dietary fatty acids on intestinal lipid handling and chylomicron production was examined. Chronic supplementation of caco-2 cells with palmitic acid (PA) resulted in a lower triacylglycerol secretion than oleic acid (OA). This was coupled with a detrimental effect of PA, but not OA, on transepithelial electrical resistance (TER) measurements, suggesting a loss of structural integrity across the cell monolayer. Addition of OA reversed the adverse effects of PA and stearic acid on TER and increased the ability of cells to synthesise and accumulate lipid, but did not normalise the secretion of lipids by caco-2 cells. Increasing amounts of OA and decreasing amounts of PA in the incubation media markedly improved the ability of cells to synthesise apolipoprotein B and secrete lipids. Real time RT-PCR revealed a down regulation of genes involved in lipoprotein synthesis following PA than OA. Electron microscopy showed adverse effects of PA on cellular morphology consistent with immature enterocytes such as stunted microvilli and poor tight junction formation. In conclusion, previously reported differences in lipoprotein secretion by caco-2 cells supplemented with saturated fatty acids (SFA) and OA may partly reflect early cytotoxic effects of SFA on cellular integrity and function. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.