NATO’s presence in the Baltic states – reassurance of allies or deterrence for Russia? OSW COMMENTARY Number 169, 29.04.2015 2015-04-29

In late March and early April, the US Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) held an exercise in Estonia, during which US F-16s destroyed ground targets in an Estonian firing range. Around the same time the Americans held a drill with the Swedish and Finnish Air Forces over the Baltic Sea. The United States has been playing a leading role in the process of strengthening NATO’s presence in the Baltic states. As far as the Western European allies are concerned, Germany will follow in the footsteps of Denmark and the United Kingdom, both of which made significant military contributions to the strengthening of the allied presence in 2014, and will deploy the largest number of troops in 2015. Non-aligned Sweden and Finland, key for the performance of NATO operations in the Baltic states, have been emphasising their military and political readiness to co-operate with NATO in the event of potential crises or conflicts. Comparing NATO ‘s military presence in the Baltic states before and after the outbreak of the Russian intervention in Ukraine, it is clear that NATO has stepped up its engagement considerably. However, its scope is still relatively small, given the much larger military potential and mobilisation capacity of Russia. Moreover, the message sent by NATO’s actions may be diminished by the political, military and financial constraints faced by the allies and Sweden and Finland. It seems that the greatest risk to the military security of the Baltic states currently appears to be the possibility that Russia could wrongly assess the reliability of NATO’s security guarantees.

(Table 2) Trace metal concentrations in ODP Hole 169-1033B

We measured the concentrations of redox-sensitive trace metals (Mn, V, Mo, U, Cd and Re) in sediments from ODP Leg 169S Hole 1033B in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, to determine changes in redox conditions associated with the onset of laminated sediments at ~12.5 kyr. The most striking result is a large peak in authigenic Re along with detrital levels of Mo at the glacial terrigenous clay-diatomaceous sediment transition. In contrast, the underlying glacial terrigenous clay, which extends throughout the bottom section of the core, is chemically similar to detrital concentrations, either Cowichan River particulates or average shale values. These data suggest a period of oxic bottom waters but reducing pore-waters. This could be due to the dramatic transformation of Saanich Inlet during the late deglaciation from an open bay to an inlet, which restricted circulation and slowed bottom water oxygen renewal. A peak and gradual increase in authigenic Mn in younger sediments subsequent to the Re peak suggests that increasingly oxic conditions followed the authigenic enrichment in Re. These conditions could be connected to the Younger Dryas cooling period, which was coincident with an increase in well oxygenated upwelled waters on the west coast of North America that form the bottom waters of Saanich Inlet. Metal concentrations in a gray clay bed (~11 kyr) are similar to their concentrations in the glacial terrigenous clay, implying that they have a common source. Authigenic enrichments of Re with little authigenic Mo and Cd suggest that before the deposition of this bed, bottom waters were oxic and pore-water oxygen was consumed in the top centimeter or less. Laminations above the clay layer suggest anoxic conditions, which are also indicated by higher authigenic Mo and Cd and slightly lower Re/Mo ratios in these sediments. The basin remained mostly anoxic after the gray clay was emplaced, as seen by continuous authigenic enrichment of the redox-sensitive trace metals. These results are consistent with increased stratification of the water column, brought about by an influx of fresh water to the basin by a large flood.