979 resultados para "Future as Nightmare" Scenarios


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A Tobacco-Free Future - An all-island report on tobacco, inequalities and childhood 2013 reveals declines in smoking rates among both children and pregnant women over the past decade, both North and South of the border. This report published by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) and the TobaccoFree Research Institute Ireland (TFRI), shows that while tobacco control measures are being successful, disadvantaged children are at particular risk of tobacco-related harms.

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In Northern Ireland in 2002-03, there were almost 30,000 admissions to hospital for respiratory conditions utilizing over 180,000 bed days and costing almost å£50m. Social security support for people with long term chest and breathing problems amounts to å£26m annually. This framework sets out how with better prevention and self management a reduction in ill health and a contribute to a reduction in avoidable deaths can be achieved. And with better co-ordinated and integrated services more consistent and effective care for those people unfortunate enough to suffer from serious disease can be provided. This in turn will enable services to better respond to the increasing needs of a more elderly population. The document contains a number of recommendations. These include significant service re-organisation and re-design so that the whole system – the primary, community and hospital sectors, provides for a more responsive and effective service to users and carers. This should result in much more of the overall caseload being proactively managed in community and primary care environments allowing scarce hospital capacity to be devoted to the most critical cases. This includes the development of new ways of caring for at risk patients, more effective rehabilitation in the community, improved education and training of professionals and better communication across the community and hospital sectors.

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The prevalence of people who are overweight and obese has been steadily rising in Northern Ireland, and in the western world, over the last few decades. It has been described as an “obesity time-bomb”, given the impact that obesity can have on physical and mental health and wellbeing.Evidence has shown that, while weight gain is the result of a relatively simple energy imbalance, the causes that underpin changes to energy intake and expenditure are very complex and cover issues such as social and individual psychology, physiology, food production and consumption, individual activity, and the built environment.This Framework aims to “empower the population of Northern Ireland to make healthy choices, and reduce the level of harm related to overweight and obesity, by creating an environment that supports and promotes a physically active lifestyle and a healthy diet”.In addition, the following overarching target has been set: to reduce the level of obesity in Northern Ireland to the 2005-06 level by 2021.

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A Framework for Preventing and Addressing Overweight and Obesity in NI 2012-2022 This Framework aims to “empower the population of Northern Ireland to make healthy choices, reduce the risk of overweight and obesity related diseases and improve health and wellbeing, by creating an environment that supports and promotes a physically active lifestyle and a healthy diet”. In addition, the following overarching targets have been set: Adults • To reduce the level of obesity by 4% and overweight and obesity by 3% by 2022. Children • A 3% reduction of obesity and 2% reduction of overweight and obesity by 2022åÊThe target is in two parts; the proportion that are obese and the proportion that are overweight and obese. Prevention is typically taken forward through action to address two main areas – improving diet and nutrition, and increasing participation in physical activity. Acknowledging this, two overarching objectives for the Framework have been set: to increase the percentage of people eating a healthy, nutritionally balanced diet; and to increase the percentage of the population meeting the CMO guidelines on physical activity.

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There has been good progress in inferring the evolutionary relationships within trypanosomes from DNA data as until relatively recently, many relationships have remained rather speculative. Ongoing molecular studies have provided data that have adequately shown Trypanosoma to be monophyletic and, rather surprisingly, that there are sharply contrasting levels of genetic variation within and between the major trypanosomatid groups. There are still, however, areas of research that could benefit from further development and resolution that broadly fall upon three questions. Are the current statements of evolutionary homology within ribosomal small sub-unit genes in need of refinement? Can the published phylograms be expanded upon to form `supertrees' depicting further relationships? Does a bifurcating tree structure impose an untenable dogma upon trypanosomatid phylogeny where hybridisation or reticulate evolutionary steps have played a part? This article briefly addresses these three questions and, in so doing, hopes to stimulate further interest in the molecular evolution of the group.

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El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

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During the past, Health Education has been taking place in a variety of ways: prevention, monitoring and control of potentially epidemic diseases. New trends have been arising (such as 'health corners', interdisciplinary activities, exhibit, 'mini-university' for children, etc.). But it is important to discuss what 'Health Education' means, and define 'health' and rethink educational strategies. Several evaluations have highlighted the limited impact that communication activities, or one-off awareness campaigns, may have.

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Future of Fertility Services in Northern Ireland (From People to Parents)

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This paper presents the main subjects discussed in the round-table: "Educational Base for Biomedical Research", during the International Symposium on Biomedical Research in the 21st century; two main aspects will be focused: (1) the importance of popularizing science in order to stimulate comprehension of the scientific process and progress, their critical thinking, citizenship and social commitment, mainly in the biomedical area, considering the new advances of knowledge and the resulting technology; (2) the importance to stimulate genuine scientific vocation among young people, by giving them opportunity to early experience scientific environment, throught the hands of well prepared master in a humanistic atmosphere.

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While for most children the best place to grow up is with their birth parents, others are unable to do so. Under the Children (Northern Ireland) Order 1995, the first duty of Health and Social Services Trusts, where children cannot live with their birth parents, is to seek a home for them with their extended famly. Finding a safe and caring new home for children with their wider family or friends allows them to keep important attachments and connections in their lives, and is therefore the preferred choice where it is possible. Where this is not possible, society has a clear responsibility to provide children with stability and permanence in their lives. Some children are placed in alternative forms of care. Adoption is traditionally a means of providing a permanent family for a small, but significant number of children who are unable to return to their birth parents. Adoption is, however, much wider than just the service provided to children. Adoption affects birth parents, prospective adopters, adoptive parents, siblings, grandparents and other relatives. The Department of Health Social Services and Public Safety believes that more can and should be done to reflect the complex needs of those affected by adoption. åÊ

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With some 30,000 dependent persons, opiate addiction constitutes a major public health problem in Switzerland. The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) has long played a leading role in the prevention and treatment of opiate addiction and in research on effective means of containing the epidemic of opiate addiction and its consequences. Major milestones on that path have been the successive "Methadone reports" published by that Office and providing guidance on the care of opiate addiction with substitution treatment. In view of updating the recommendations for the appropriateness of substitution treatment for opiate addiction, in particular for the prescription of methadone, the FOPH commissioned a multi-component project involving the following elements. A survey of current attitudes and practices in Switzerland related to opiate substitution treatment Review of Swiss literature on methadone substitution treatment Review of international literature on methadone substitution treatment National Methadone Substitution Conference Multidisciplinary expert panel to evaluate the appropriateness of substitution treatment. The present report documents the process and summarises the results of the latter element above. The RAND appropriateness method (RAM) was used to distil from literature-based evidence and systematically formulated expert opinion, areas where consensus exist on the appropriateness (or inappropriateness) of methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and areas where disagreement or uncertainty persist and which should be further pursued. The major areas which were addressed by this report are Initial assessment of candidates for MMT Appropriate settings for initiation of MMT (general and special cases) Appropriateness of methadone supportive therapy Co-treatments and accompanying measures Dosage schedules and pharmacokinetic testing Withdrawal from MMT Miscellaneous questions Appropriateness of other (non-methadone) substitution treatment Summary statements for each of the above categories are derived from the panel meeting and presented in the report. In the "first round", agreement was observed for 31% of the 553 theoretical scenarios evaluated. The "second round" rating, following discussion of divergent ratings, resulted in a much higher agreement among panellists, reaching 53% of the 537 scenarios. Frank disagreement was encountered for 7% of all scenarios. Overall 49% of the clinical situations (scenarios) presented were considered appropriate. The areas where at least 50% of the situations were considered appropriate were "initial assessment of candidates for MMT", the "appropriate settings for initiation of MMT", the "appropriate settings for methadone supportive treatment" and "Appropriateness of other (non-methadone) substitution treatment". The area where there was the least consensus on appropriateness concerned "appropriateness of withdrawal from MMT" (6%). The report discusses the implications and limitations of the panel results and provides recommendations for the dissemination, application, and future use of the criteria for the appropriateness of MMT. The RAND Appropriateness Method proved to be an accepted and appreciated method to assess the appropriateness of methadone maintenance treatment for opiate addicts. In the next step, the results of the expert panel process must now be combined with those of the Swiss and international literature reviews and the survey of current attitudes and practices in Switzerland, to be synthesized into formal practice guidelines. Such guidelines should be disseminated to all concerned, promoted, used and rigorously evaluated for compliance and outcome.

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While for most children the best place to grow up is with their birth parents, others are unable to do so. Under the Children (Northern Ireland) Order 1995, the first duty of Health and Social Services Trusts, where children cannot live with their birth parents, is to seek a home for them with their extended famly. Finding a safe and caring new home for children with their wider family or friends allows them to keep important attachments and connections in their lives, and is therefore the preferred choice where it is possible. Where this is not possible, society has a clear responsibility to provide children with stability and permanence in their lives. Some children are placed in alternative forms of care. Adoption is traditionally a means of providing a permanent family for a small, but significant number of children who are unable to return to their birth parents. Adoption is, however, much wider than just the service provided to children. Adoption affects birth parents, prospective adopters, adoptive parents, siblings, grandparents and other relatives. The Department of Health Social Services and Public Safety believes that more can and should be done to reflect the complex needs of those affected by adoption. åÊ

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Health Minister Paul Goggins has unveiled the proposed new approach to adoption, in Northern Ireland which will put children’s needs at the heart of the process.

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Report published by the DHSSPS in May 1996. The Cancer Working Group, chaired by the Chief Medical Officer Henrietta Campbell, highlighted the need for changes to cancer services and made a number of key recommendations for the future development of these services.

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Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.