Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) (Illiger, 1815)

A população de cervo-do-pantanal (Blastocerus dichotomus) está drasticamente reduzida no Brasil. O nosso objetivo foi o de estimar a abundância do cervo-do-pantanal na bacia do Rio Paraná e discutir a metodologia aplicada. Os resultados darão suporte para uma análise do impacto do enchimento da represa de Porto Primavera sobre essa população. Sessenta e nove animais foram registrados através de sobrevôo utilizando-se a metodologia de transecção linear com amostragem das distâncias. Os dados não corrigidos resultaram em uma densidade estimada de 0,0035ind/ha e uma população de 636 indivíduos. A correção de g para os animais que não foram vistos apresentou uma densidade de 0,0049 ind/ha e uma abundância de 896 (CV=0,27) indivíduos. A metodologia foi aplicada com sucesso na estimativa de cervo-do-pantanal. Esse resultado é importante para avaliarmos a população do cervo-do-pantanal na área e para futuramente analisarmos o impacto do enchimento da represa.

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.

Minority type matters : ethnic diversity and tolerance in 29 European democracies

Past research has shown that having a large population of ethnic minorities beyond the neighborhood level arouses intolerance in the majority. However, this paper presents the argument that the effect of minority size on tolerance depends on minority type: the less subject the minority is to negative stereotyping, the more favorable the effect that minority size has on tolerance. In this study, a hierarchical linear model was applied to a dataset on advanced and emerging democracies in Europe. The analysis shows that when the duration and level of democracy are controlled for, ethnic tolerance was associated positively with native minority size and negatively with foreign population size.

Diversity and Stability in Food Webs : Impacts of Non-Equilibrium Dynamics, Topology and Variation

With progressive climate change, the preservation of biodiversity is becoming increasingly important. Only if the gene pool is large enough and requirements of species are diverse, there will be species that can adapt to the changing circumstances. To maintain biodiversity, we must understand the consequences of the various strategies. Mathematical models of population dynamics could provide prognoses. However, a model that would reproduce and explain the mechanisms behind the diversity of species that we observe experimentally and in nature is still needed. A combination of theoretical models with detailed experiments is needed to test biological processes in models and compare predictions with outcomes in reality. In this thesis, several food webs are modeled and analyzed. Among others, models are formulated of laboratory experiments performed in the Zoological Institute of the University of Cologne. Numerical data of the simulations is in good agreement with the real experimental results. Via numerical simulations it can be demonstrated that few assumptions are necessary to reproduce in a model the sustained oscillations of the population size that experiments show. However, analysis indicates that species "thrown together by chance" are not very likely to survive together over long periods. Even larger food nets do not show significantly different outcomes and prove how extraordinary and complicated natural diversity is. In order to produce such a coexistence of randomly selected species—as the experiment does—models require additional information about biological processes or restrictions on the assumptions. Another explanation for the observed coexistence is a slow extinction that takes longer than the observation time. Simulated species survive a comparable period of time before they die out eventually. Interestingly, it can be stated that the same models allow the survival of several species in equilibrium and thus do not follow the so-called competitive exclusion principle. This state of equilibrium is more fragile, however, to changes in nutrient supply than the oscillating coexistence. Overall, the studies show, that having a diverse system means that population numbers are probably oscillating, and on the other hand oscillating population numbers stabilize a food web both against demographic noise as well as against changes of the habitat. Model predictions can certainly not be converted at their face value into policies for real ecosystems. But the stabilizing character of fluctuations should be considered in the regulations of animal populations.

Remotely-sensed changes in the primary productivity of migratory caribou calving grounds and summer pasture: the mixed influences of climate change and caribou herbivory

Nous avons utilisé la télédétection pour examiner comment l’abondance du caribou migrateur pouvait influencer la quantité de ressources alimentaires, et comment ces changements pouvaient affecter la dynamique de population et les patrons d’utilisation de l’espace des caribous. Nous avons évalué les relations entre le caribou et ses ressources alimentaires pour l’aire de mise bas et l’aire d’estivage du troupeau Rivière-George (TRG) du nord du Québec et du Labrador (Canada) entre 1991 et 2011. Nous avons modélisé les relations entre la productivité primaire et des variables climatiques, nous permettant d’isoler les effets d’autres facteurs, comme la pression de broutement des caribous. Nous avons trouvé une relation négative entre la densité de caribous et la productivité primaire à grande échelle, suggérant que la pression de broutement par les caribous pouvait réduire l’abondance des ressources alimentaires et contribuer à la dégradation de l’habitat. Une forte tendance au réchauffement durant la période d’étude, couplée avec un déclin de la taille de population du TRG, a cependant entrainé une productivité primaire plus élevée. Cette hausse de la productivité primaire pourrait représenter un rétablissement de la végétation suite à la réduction de la pression de broutement et/ou un effet du réchauffement climatique.

Conservation and management of exploited shark populations based on reproductive value

Several life history traits of sharks result in juveniles being particularly vulnerable to exploitation. However, population level impacts of harvests on juvenile sharks have not been well quantified. This paper examines a range of harvest strategies, including those targeting juveniles. Reproductive value and yield per recruit are used to compare the harvests, which are represented by Leslie matrix models with a harvest matrix. Two species are used as examples: the short-lived Rhizoprionodon taylori and the long-lived Squalus acanthias. Harvests that maintain a stationary population size cause reproductive values to change in opposing ways, but they remove equal fractions of the population's reproductive potential. A new theorem gives population growth as a function of the fraction of reproductive potential removed by a harvest, a relationship useful for comparing harvests on juveniles and adults. Stochastic projections indicate that the risk of depletion is associated with the fraction of reproductive potential removed annually, a measure which encompasses the information in both the selectivity and the rate of fishing mortality. These results indicate the value of focusing conservation efforts on preserving reproductive potential.

Healing wounds institutional strength, peacebuilding, and productive entrepreneurship – exploratory analysis on 23 departments of Colombia

Este estudio presenta un análisis exploratorio sobre la correlación entre la fortaleza institucional, las condiciones de paz, y el emprendimiento en una muestra de 23 departamentos en Colombia usando datos de 2014. Para llevar a cabo este objetivo se propusieron y construyeron tres índices siguiendo definiciones conceptuales seminales o estándares de evaluación internacional, a saber: 1) El Índice de Fortaleza Institucional, 2) El Índice de Construcción de Paz (construido a partir del índice de paz negativa y el índice de paz positiva) y 3) El Índice de Emprendimiento Productivo. Los resultados no muestran una correlación significativa entre todos los tres índices. Por un lado, existe una correlación significativa (p<0.05) entre los índices de fortaleza institucional y emprendimiento productivo. Por otro lado, existen correlaciones negativas no significativas entre los índices de paz positiva y fortaleza institucional, emprendimiento productivo y paz positiva y emprendimiento productivo y construcción de paz. En un segundo acercamiento, la población de los departamentos fue la variable con mayor número de correlaciones significativas (p<0.01) entre variables relacionadas con emprendimiento productivo, empleo, producto interno bruto, sofisticación industrial, innovación (patentes) y crimen. Finalmente, se discuten las conclusiones y las futuras investigaciones.

Development of molecular approaches to assess the diversity and abundance of marine nematodes assemblages for assessment of Good Environmental Status of the estuarine and marine ecosystems

In Europe, the concerns with the status of marine ecosystems have increased, and the Marine Directive has as main goal the achievement of Good Environmental Status (GES) of EU marine waters by 2020. Molecular tools are seen as promising and emerging approaches to improve ecosystem monitoring, and have led ecology into a new era, representing perhaps the most source of innovation in marine monitoring techniques. Benthic nematodes are considered ideal organisms to be used as biological indicator of natural and anthropogenic disturbances in aquatic ecosystems underpinning monitoring programmes on the ecological quality of marine ecosystems, very useful to assess the GES of the marine environment. dT-RFLP (directed Terminal-Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) allows to assess the diversity of nematode communities, but also allows studying the functioning of the ecosystem, and combined with relative real-time PCR (qPCR), provides a high-throughput semi-quantitative characterization of nematode communities. These characteristics make the two molecular tools good descriptors for the good environmental status assessment. The main aim of this study is to develop and optimize the dT-RFLP and qPCR in Mira estuary (SW coast, Portugal). A molecular phylogenetic analysis of marine and estuarine nematodes is being performed combining morphological and molecular analysis to evaluate the diversity of free-living marine nematodes in Mira estuary. After morphological identification, barcoding of 18S rDNA and COI genes are being determined for each nematode species morphologically identified. So far we generated 40 new sequences belonging to 32 different genus and 17 families, and the study has shown a good degree of concordance between traditional morphology-based identification and DNA sequences. These results will improve the assessment of marine nematode diversity and contribute to a more robust nematode taxonomy. The DNA sequences are being used to develop the dT-RFLP with the ability to easily process large sample numbers (hundreds and thousands), rather than typical of classical taxonomic or low throughput molecular analyses. A preliminary study showed that the digest enzymes used in dT-RFLP for terrestrial assemblages separated poorly the marine nematodes at taxonomic level for functional group analysis. A new digest combination was designed using the software tool DRAT (Directed Terminal Restriction Analysis Tool) to distinguished marine nematode taxa. Several solutions were provided by DRAT and tested empirically to select the solution that cuts most efficiently. A combination of three enzymes and a single digest showed to be the best solution to separate the different clusters. Parallel to this, another tool is being developed to estimate the population size (qPCR). An improvement in qPCR estimation of gene copy number using an artificial reference is being performed for marine nematodes communities to quantify the abundance. Once developed, it is proposed to validate both methodologies by determining the spatial and temporal variability of benthic nematodes assemblages across different environments. The application of these high-throughput molecular approaches for benthic nematodes will improve sample throughput and their implementation more efficient and faster as indicator of ecological status of marine ecosystems.

Comparison of sequence variants in the PDK4 and COX4I2 genes between racing and cutting lines of quarter horses and associations with the speed index.

Different selection objectives within the Quarter Horse breed led to the formation of groups with distinct skills, including the racing and cutting lines. With a smaller population size in Brazil, but of great economic representativeness, the racing line is characterized by animals that can reach high speeds over short distances and within a short period of time. The cutting line is destined for functional tests, exploring skills such as agility and obedience. Although the athletic performance of horses is likely to be influenced by a large number of genes, few genetic variants have so far been related to this trait and this was done exclusively in Thoroughbreds, including the g.38973231G>A singlenucleotide polymorphism in the PDK4 gene and the g.22684390C>T single-nucleotide polymorphism in the COX4I2 gene. The results of the present study demonstrate the presence of polymorphic PDK4 and COX4I2 genes in Quarter Horses. The analysis of 296 racing animals and 68 cutting animals revealed significant differences in allele and genotype frequencies between the two lines. The same was not observed when these frequencies were compared between extreme racing performance phenotypes. There were also no significant associations between alleles of the two polymorphisms and the speed index. These results suggest that the alleles of the PDK4 and COX4I2 genes, which are related to better racecourse performance in Thoroughbreds, are probably associated with beneficial adaptations in aerobic metabolism and therefore play secondary roles in sprint racing performance in Quarter Horses, which is mainly anaerobic.

Resistance to Meloidogyne incognita, Meloidogyne javanica and Pratylenchus brachyurus in sunflower cultivars adapted to the tropical region of Brazil.

The continuous soybean-maize crop succession in the tropical region of Brazil has led to significant increases in the population size of root-knot (Meloidogyne incognita and M. javanica ) and root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus brachyurus), which make soils unsuitable for soybean cropping. A greenhouse study was conducted to identify sunflower genotypes adapted to the tropical region of Brazil and that are resistant to M. incognita, M. javanica and/or P. brachyurus . Two experiments for each nematode were conducted in a completely randomized design with six replicates. Gall index was calculated from visual scores (0?5) of gall intensity on roots for the root-knot nematode. Initial and final population density and reproduction factor were also measured for each nematode. Sunflower genotypes varied in resistance to the nematodes. Sunflower hybrids BRS 321 and BRS 323 were resistant to M. javanica and P. brachyurus and exhibited low gall index for M. incognita . The cultivars are good alternatives to using in the succession of soybean in nematode-infested areas of the tropical regions of Brazil. No sunflower genotype was identified as resistant to M. incognita and thus sunflower cropping is not indicated in areas infested with this nematode.

Grant-free protocols for massive multiple access

In next generation Internet-of-Things, the overhead introduced by grant-based multiple access protocols may engulf the access network as a consequence of the proliferation of connected devices. Grant-free access protocols are therefore gaining an increasing interest to support massive multiple access. In addition to scalability requirements, new demands have emerged for massive multiple access, including latency and reliability. The challenges envisaged for future wireless communication networks, particularly in the context of massive access, include: i) a very large population size of low power devices transmitting short packets; ii) an ever-increasing scalability requirement; iii) a mild fixed maximum latency requirement; iv) a non-trivial requirement on reliability. To this aim, we suggest the joint utilization of grant-free access protocols, massive MIMO at the base station side, framed schemes to let the contention start and end within a frame, and succesive interference cancellation techniques at the base station side. In essence, this approach is encapsulated in the concept of coded random access with massive MIMO processing. These schemes can be explored from various angles, spanning the protocol stack from the physical (PHY) to the medium access control (MAC) layer. In this thesis, we delve into both of these layers, examining topics ranging from symbol-level signal processing to succesive interference cancellation-based scheduling strategies. In parallel with proposing new schemes, our work includes a theoretical analysis aimed at providing valuable system design guidelines. As a main theoretical outcome, we propose a novel joint PHY and MAC layer design based on density evolution on sparse graphs.

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and "minimum risk distribution": a framework for population stability

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

Breeding system and genetic variance in the monogamous, semi-social shrew, Crocidura russula

The population-genetic consequences of monogamy and male philopatry (a rare breeding system in mammals) were investigated using microsatellite markers in the semisocial and anthropophilic shrew Crocidura russula. A hierarchical sampling design over a 16-km geographical transect revealed a large genetic diversity (h = 0.813) with significant differentiation among subpopulations (F-ST = 5-6%), which suggests an exchange of 4.4 migrants per generation. Demic effective-size estimates were very high, due both to this limited gene inflow and to the inner structure of subpopulations. These were made of 13-20 smaller units (breeding groups), comprising an estimate of four breeding pairs each. Members of the same breeding groups displayed significant coancestries (F-LS = 9-10%), which was essentially due to strong male kinship: syntopic males were on average related at the half-sib level. Female dispersal among breeding groups was not complete (similar to 39%), and insufficient to prevent inbreeding. From our results, the breeding strategy of C. russula seems less efficient than classical mammalian systems (polygyny and male dispersal) in disentangling coancestry from inbreeding, but more so in retaining genetic variance.

Coffea arabica (cv Catuaí) production and bean size under different population arrangements and soil water availability

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of drip irrigation under different population arrangements on the phytometric features, coffee productivity and bean size classification according to sieve retention. The experiment with Coffea arabica L. cv Catuaí was carried out in Mococa, São Paulo, Brazil. The experimental design was a 6 x 2 factorial scheme in randomized blocks, with four replications. The six densities of plantation were E1 (1.60 x 0.50 m); E2 (1.60 x 0.75 m); E3 (1.60 x 1.00 m); E4 (3.20 x 0.50 m); E5 (3.20 x 0.75 m) and E6 (3.20 x 1.00 m), which were divided according to the availability of water (irrigated - I - or non-irrigated - NI - groups). Data were submitted to analysis of variance and averages compared by Tukey test at 1 and 5% of probability. Descriptive analysis of coffee beans according to sieve classification was performed. Irrigation promoted an increase in plant height, crown diameter and production of processed coffee when compared with the NI group. Interaction between population arrangement and irrigation was observed, with an increase in production and crown diameter as the spacing was decreased. Therefore, irrigation provided significant increase in coffee bean size.

Using the best linear predictor (BLP) in the selection between and among half-sib progenies of the CMS-39 maize population

Data of corn ear production (kg/ha) of 196 half-sib progenies (HSP) of the maize population CMS-39 obtained from experiments carried out in four environments were used to adapt and assess the BLP method (best linear predictor) in comparison with to the selection among and within half-sib progenies (SAWHSP). The 196 HSP of the CMS-39 population developed by the National Center for Maize and Sorghum Research (CNPMS-EMBRAPA) were related through their pedigree with the recombined progenies of the previous selection cycle. The two methodologies used for the selection of the twenty best half-sib progenies, BLP and SAWHSP, led to similar expected genetic gains. There was a tendency in the BLP methodology to select a greater number of related progenies because of the previous generation (pedigree) than the other method. This implies that greater care with the effective size of the population must be taken with this method. The SAWHSP methodology was efficient in isolating the additive genetic variance component from the phenotypic component. The pedigree system, although unnecessary for the routine use of the SAWHSP methodology, allowed the prediction of an increase in the inbreeding of the population in the long term SAWHSP selection when recombination is simultaneous to creation of new progenies.