Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Body fluid and tissue analysis using filter paper sampling support prior to LC-MS/MS: application to fatal overdose with colchicine

Because of the various matrices available for forensic investigations, the development of versatile analytical approaches allowing the simultaneous determination of drugs is challenging. The aim of this work was to assess a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) platform allowing the rapid quantification of colchicine in body fluids and tissues collected in the context of a fatal overdose. For this purpose, filter paper was used as a sampling support and was associated with an automated 96-well plate extraction performed by the LC autosampler itself. The developed method features a 7-min total run time including automated filter paper extraction (2 min) and chromatographic separation (5 min). The sample preparation was reduced to a minimum regardless of the matrix analyzed. This platform was fully validated for dried blood spots (DBS) in the toxic concentration range of colchicine. The DBS calibration curve was applied successfully to quantification in all other matrices (body fluids and tissues) except for bile, where an excessive matrix effect was found. The distribution of colchicine for a fatal overdose case was reported as follows: peripheral blood, 29 ng/ml; urine, 94 ng/ml; vitreous humour and cerebrospinal fluid, < 5 ng/ml; pericardial fluid, 14 ng/ml; brain, < 5 pg/mg; heart, 121 pg/mg; kidney, 245 pg/mg; and liver, 143 pg/mg. Although filter paper is usually employed for DBS, we report here the extension of this alternative sampling support to the analysis of other body fluids and tissues. The developed platform represents a rapid and versatile approach for drug determination in multiple forensic media.

Optimum power allocation for parallel Gaussian channels with arbitrary input distributions

The mutual information of independent parallel Gaussian-noise channels is maximized, under an average power constraint, by independent Gaussian inputs whose power is allocated according to the waterfilling policy. In practice, discrete signalling constellations with limited peak-to-average ratios (m-PSK, m-QAM, etc) are used in lieu of the ideal Gaussian signals. This paper gives the power allocation policy that maximizes the mutual information over parallel channels with arbitrary input distributions. Such policy admits a graphical interpretation, referred to as mercury/waterfilling, which generalizes the waterfilling solution and allows retaining some of its intuition. The relationship between mutual information of Gaussian channels and nonlinear minimum mean-square error proves key to solving the power allocation problem.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Adipose tissue integrity as a prerequisite for systemic energy balance: a critical role for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma) is an essential regulator of adipocyte differentiation, maintenance, and survival. Deregulations of its functions are associated with metabolic diseases. We show here that deletion of one PPARgamma allele not only affected lipid storage but, more surprisingly, also the expression of genes involved in glucose uptake and utilization, the pentose phosphate pathway, fatty acid synthesis, lipolysis, and glycerol export as well as in IR/IGF-1 signaling. These deregulations led to reduced circulating adiponectin levels and an energy crisis in the WAT, reflected in a decrease to nearly half of its intracellular ATP content. In addition, there was a decrease in the metabolic rate and physical activity of the PPARgamma(+/-) mice, which was abolished by thiazolidinedione treatment, thereby linking regulation of the metabolic rate and physical activity to PPARgamma. It is likely that the PPARgamma(+/-) phenotype was due to the observed WAT dysfunction, since the gene expression profiles associated with metabolic pathways were not affected either in the liver or the skeletal muscle. These findings highlight novel roles of PPARgamma in the adipose tissue and underscore the multifaceted action of this receptor in the functional fine tuning of a tissue that is crucial for maintaining the organism in good health.

The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

Social bases of changing income distributions

On the backdrop of very little sociological concern with rising income inequality, this paper examines how key changes in sociodemographic behaviour may help shed additional light on changes in household income distribution and especially on long-term income dynamics and inter-generational mobility. The paper argues that the joint effect of rising marital homogamy in terms of human capital and labour supply contributes generally to widen the income gap between households. Only uner very restrictive conditions, namely when the labour supply of low educated women grows dis-proportionally fast, will women's earnings contribute to more equality. Finally, the paper suggests that women's rising employment commitments contribute positively to equalizing the opportunity structure both via the income effect and if quality care is available, also via more homogenous cultural and cognitive stimulation of children. Mother's work does not generally have adverse effects for children's development.

Tissue biomarker development in a multicentre trial context: a feasibility study on the PETACC3 stage II and III colon cancer adjuvant treatment trial.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the feasibility of biomarker development in the context of multicenter clinical trials. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue samples were collected from a prospective adjuvant colon cancer trial (PETACC3). DNA was isolated from tumor as well as normal tissue and used for analysis of microsatellite instability, KRAS and BRAF genotyping, UGT1A1 genotyping, and loss of heterozygosity of 18 q loci. Immunohistochemistry was used to test expression of TERT, SMAD4, p53, and TYMS. Messenger RNA was retrieved and tested for use in expression profiling experiments. RESULTS: Of the 3,278 patients entered in the study, FFPE blocks were obtained from 1,564 patients coming from 368 different centers in 31 countries. In over 95% of the samples, genomic DNA tests yielded a reliable result. Of the immmunohistochemical tests, p53 and SMAD4 staining did best with reliable results in over 85% of the cases. TERT was the most problematic test with 46% of failures, mostly due to insufficient tissue processing quality. Good quality mRNA was obtained, usable in expression profiling experiments. CONCLUSIONS: Prospective clinical trials can be used as framework for biomarker development using routinely processed FFPE tissues. Our results support the notion that as a rule, translational studies based on FFPE should be included in prospective clinical trials.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.

Lower thigh subcutaneous and higher visceral abdominal adipose tissue content both contribute to insulin resistance.

It is well known that visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is associated with insulin resistance (IR). Considerable debate remains concerning the potential positive effect of thigh subcutaneous adipose tissue (TSAT). Our objective was to observe whether VAT and TSAT are opposite, synergistic or additive for both peripheral and hepatic IR. Fifty-two volunteers (21 male/31 female) between 30 and 75 years old were recruited from the general population. All subjects were sedentary overweight or obese (mean BMI 33.0 ± 3.4 kg/m(2)). Insulin sensitivity was determined by a 4-h hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp with stable isotope tracer dilution. Total body fat and lean body mass were determined by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Abdominal and mid-thigh adiposity was determined by computed tomography. VAT was negatively associated with peripheral insulin sensitivity, while TSAT, in contrast, was positively associated with peripheral insulin sensitivity. Subjects with a combination of low VAT and high TSAT had the highest insulin sensitivity, subjects with a combination of high VAT and low TSAT were the most insulin resistant. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age and gender. These data confirm that visceral excess abdominal adiposity is associated with IR across a range of middle-age to older men and women, and further suggest that higher thigh subcutaneous fat is favorably associated with better insulin sensitivity. This strongly suggests that these two distinct fat distribution phenotypes should both be considered in IR as important determinants of cardiometabolic risk.

Essential role of platelet activation via protease activated receptor 4 in tissue factor-initiated inflammation.

INTRODUCTION: Tissue factor (TF) activation of the coagulation proteases enhances inflammation in animal models of arthritis and endotoxemia, but the mechanism of this effect is not yet fully understood - in particular, whether this is primarily due to fibrin formation or through activation of protease activated receptors (PARs). METHODS: We induced extravascular inflammation by injection of recombinant soluble murine TF (sTF1-219) in the hind paw. The effects of thrombin inhibition, fibrinogen and platelet depletion were evaluated, as well as the effects of PAR deficiency using knockout mice deficient for each of the PARs. RESULTS: Injection of soluble TF provoked a rapid onset of paw swelling. Inflammation was confirmed histologically and by increased serum IL-6 levels. Inflammation was significantly reduced by depletion of fibrinogen (P < 0.05) or platelets (P = 0.015), and by treatment with hirudin (P = 0.04) or an inhibitor of activated factor VII (P < 0.001) compared with controls. PAR-4-deficient mice exhibited significantly reduced paw swelling (P = 0.003). In contrast, a deficiency in either PAR-1, PAR-2 or PAR-3 did not affect the inflammatory response to soluble TF injection. CONCLUSION: Our results show that soluble TF induces acute inflammation through a thrombin-dependent pathway and both fibrin deposition and platelet activation are essential steps in this process. The activation of PAR-4 on platelets is crucial and the other PARs do not play a major role in soluble TF-induced inflammation.

Ultrahigh dose-rate FLASH irradiation increases the differential response between normal and tumor tissue in mice.

In vitro studies suggested that sub-millisecond pulses of radiation elicit less genomic instability than continuous, protracted irradiation at the same total dose. To determine the potential of ultrahigh dose-rate irradiation in radiotherapy, we investigated lung fibrogenesis in C57BL/6J mice exposed either to short pulses (≤ 500 ms) of radiation delivered at ultrahigh dose rate (≥ 40 Gy/s, FLASH) or to conventional dose-rate irradiation (≤ 0.03 Gy/s, CONV) in single doses. The growth of human HBCx-12A and HEp-2 tumor xenografts in nude mice and syngeneic TC-1 Luc(+) orthotopic lung tumors in C57BL/6J mice was monitored under similar radiation conditions. CONV (15 Gy) triggered lung fibrosis associated with activation of the TGF-β (transforming growth factor-β) cascade, whereas no complications developed after doses of FLASH below 20 Gy for more than 36 weeks after irradiation. FLASH irradiation also spared normal smooth muscle and epithelial cells from acute radiation-induced apoptosis, which could be reinduced by administration of systemic TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor-α) before irradiation. In contrast, FLASH was as efficient as CONV in the repression of tumor growth. Together, these results suggest that FLASH radiotherapy might allow complete eradication of lung tumors and reduce the occurrence and severity of early and late complications affecting normal tissue.

Stimulation by leptin of 3H GDP binding to brown adipose tissue of fasted but not fed rats.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) leptin administration on rats fed ad libitum or fasted on 3H GDP binding to brown adipose tissue (BAT). SUBJECTS: Groups of 5-6 ten-week-old male Wistar rats. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: An i.c.v. cannula was inserted and unilateral denervation of interscapular brown adipose tissue (BAT) was performed 5 d before each study. Thereafter, leptin was infused i.c.v. during 72 h while rats were fed ad libitum or fasted. Vehicle-infused, pair-fed or fasted rats were used as controls. MEASUREMENTS: 3H GDP binding to innervated and denervated BAT mitochondria. RESULTS: 3H GDP binding to innervated or denervated BAT of rats fed ab libitum compared to vehicle-infused, pair-fed rats was not increased by i.c.v. leptin. 3H GDP binding was lower in fasted than in fed rats, and the difference was larger in innervated than denervated BAT. I.c.v. leptin increased 3H GDP binding by 30% in innervated, and by 51% in denervated BAT (P < 0.05) in fasted rats. CONCLUSIONS: I.c.v. leptin does not increase 3H GDP binding to BAT of rats fed ad libitum compared to pair-fed (food-restricted) rats. In contrast, i.c.v. leptin produces a mild stimulation of 3H GDP binding to BAT of fasted rats. This effect is not mediated by the sympathetic nervous system, because it is observed in both innervated and denervated BAT. These results are compatible with the concept that, in fasting rats, the decrease in leptin secretion contributes to the reduction in 3H GDP binding to BAT mitochondria.