An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

King of the Renaissance: Art and Politics at the Neapolitan Court of Ferrante I, 1458-1494

In the second half of the fifteenth century, King Ferrante I of Naples (r. 1458-1494) dominated the political and cultural life of the Mediterranean world. His court was home to artists, writers, musicians, and ambassadors from England to Egypt and everywhere in between. Yet, despite its historical importance, Ferrante’s court has been neglected in the scholarship. This dissertation provides a long-overdue analysis of Ferrante’s artistic patronage and attempts to explicate the king’s specific role in the process of art production at the Neapolitan court, as well as the experiences of artists employed therein. By situating Ferrante and the material culture of his court within the broader discourse of Early Modern art history for the first time, my project broadens our understanding of the function of art in Early Modern Europe. I demonstrate that, contrary to traditional assumptions, King Ferrante was a sophisticated patron of the visual arts whose political circumstances and shifting alliances were the most influential factors contributing to his artistic patronage. Unlike his father, Alfonso the Magnanimous, whose court was dominated by artists and courtiers from Spain, France, and elsewhere, Ferrante differentiated himself as a truly Neapolitan king. Yet Ferrante’s court was by no means provincial. His residence, the Castel Nuovo in Naples, became the physical embodiment of his commercial and political network, revealing the accretion of local and foreign visual vocabularies that characterizes Neapolitan visual culture.

Close encounters: international exhibitions and the material culture of the British Empire, c.1880-1940

Apparitions of empire and imperial ideologies were deeply embedded in the International Exhibition, a distinct exhibitionary paradigm that came to prominence in the mid-nineteenth century. Exhibitions were platforms for the display of objects, the movement of people, and the dissemination of ideas across and between regions of the British Empire, thereby facilitating contact between its different cultures and societies. This thesis aims to disrupt a dominant understanding of International Exhibitions, which forwards the notion that all exhibitions, irrespective of when or where they were staged, upheld a singular imperial discourse (i.e. Greenhalgh 1988, Rydell 1984). Rather, this thesis suggests International Exhibitions responded to and reflected the unique social, political and economic circumstances in which they took place, functioning as cultural environments in which pressing concerns of the day were worked through. Understood thus, the International Exhibition becomes a space for self-presentation, serving as a stage from which a multitude of interests and identities were constructed, performed and projected. This thesis looks to the visual and material culture of the International Exhibition in order to uncover this more nuanced history, and foregrounds an analysis of the intersections between practices of exhibition-making and identity-making. The primary focus is a set of exhibitions held in Glasgow in the late-1880s and early-1900s, which extends the geographic and temporal boundaries of the existing scholarship. What is more, it looks at representations of Canada at these events, another party whose involvement in the International Exhibition tradition has gone largely unnoticed. Consequently, this thesis is a thematic investigation of the links between a municipality routinely deemed the ‘Second City of the Empire’ and a Dominion settler colony, two types of geographic setting rarely brought into dialogue. It analyses three key elements of the exhibition-making process, exploring how iconographies of ‘quasi-nationhood’ were expressed through an exhibition’s planning and negotiation, its architecture and its displays. This original research framework deliberately cuts across strata that continue to define conceptions of the British Empire, and pushes beyond a conceptual model defined by metropole and colony. Through examining International Exhibitions held in Glasgow in the late-Victorian and Edwardian periods, and visions of Canada in evidence at these events, the goal is to offer a novel intervention into the existing literature concerning the cultural history of empire, one that emphasises fluidity rather than fixity and which muddles the boundaries between centre and periphery.

Galanin N-Terminal fragment (1-15) enhances the antidepressant effects of the 5-HT1A receptor agonist 8-OH-DPAT in the Forced Swimming Test.

Galanin and Galanin (1-15) [GAL(1-15)] are implicated in anxiety- and depression related behaviors. Moreover, Galanin modulates 5-HT1A receptor (5-HT1AR) function at autorreceptor and postsynaptic level in the brain. In this study, we have analysed the ability of GAL(1-15) to modulate the effects of the 8-OH-DPAT agonist in the Forced Swimming Test (FST). Groups of rats were assessed in the FST. In the first set of experiments, to evaluate the interactions of 8-OH-DPAT and GAL(1-15), rats received subcutaneously (s.c) the effective doses of 8-OH-DPAT (0.25mg/Kg) 60min before the test and intracerebroventricularly (icv) GAL(1-15)1nmol 15min before the tests alone or in combination. In the second set of experiments, groups of rats received s.c. 8-OH-DPAT (0.125mg/Kg), icv GAL(1-15) 1nmol and icv the GALR2 antagonist M871 3 nmol alone or in combination. The locomotor activity was analysed in the open field test. GAL(1-15) 1nmol enhanced the antidepressant-like effects mediated by the effective dose of the 8-OH-DPAT. GAL(1-15) significantly decreased the immobility (p<0.05) and climbing (p<0.05) and increased the swimming (p<0.01) behaviour induced by an effective dose of 8-OH-DPAT (0.25mg/Kg) in FST. Moreover, after coadministration of GAL(1-15) and threshold dose of 8-OH-DPAT (0.125mg/Kg) a significant decreased appeared in immobility (p<0.01) and climbing (p<0.01) and increased the swimming behavior (p<0.001) vs 8-OH-DPAT group. Moreover, M871 blocked completely this interaction. These results indicate that GAL(1-15) enhances the antidepressant effects induced by 8-OH-DPAT in the FST. These findings may give the basis for the development of novel therapeutic drugs. This study was supported by Junta de Andalucía CVI6476.

Evaluation of the Evidential Value of the Elemental Composition of Glass, Ink and Paper by Laser-Based Micro-Spectrochemical Methods

Elemental analysis can become an important piece of evidence to assist the solution of a case. The work presented in this dissertation aims to evaluate the evidential value of the elemental composition of three particular matrices: ink, paper and glass. In the first part of this study, the analytical performance of LIBS and LA-ICP-MS methods was evaluated for paper, writing inks and printing inks. A total of 350 ink specimens were examined including black and blue gel inks, ballpoint inks, inkjets and toners originating from several manufacturing sources and/or batches. The paper collection set consisted of over 200 paper specimens originating from 20 different paper sources produced by 10 different plants. Micro-homogeneity studies show smaller variation of elemental compositions within a single source (i.e., sheet, pen or cartridge) than the observed variation between different sources (i.e., brands, types, batches). Significant and detectable differences in the elemental profile of the inks and paper were observed between samples originating from different sources (discrimination of 87 – 100% of samples, depending on the sample set under investigation and the method applied). These results support the use of elemental analysis, using LA-ICP-MS and LIBS, for the examination of documents and provide additional discrimination to the currently used techniques in document examination. In the second part of this study, a direct comparison between four analytical methods (µ-XRF, solution-ICP-MS, LA-ICP-MS and LIBS) was conducted for glass analyses using interlaboratory studies. The data provided by 21 participants were used to assess the performance of the analytical methods in associating glass samples from the same source and differentiating different sources, as well as the use of different match criteria (confidence interval (±6s, ±5s, ±4s, ±3s, ±2s), modified confidence interval, t-test (sequential univariate, p=0.05 and p=0.01), t-test with Bonferroni correction (for multivariate comparisons), range overlap, and Hotelling’s T2 tests. Error rates (Type 1 and Type 2) are reported for the use of each of these match criteria and depend on the heterogeneity of the glass sources, the repeatability between analytical measurements, and the number of elements that were measured. The study provided recommendations for analytical performance-based parameters for µ-XRF and LA-ICP-MS as well as the best performing match criteria for both analytical techniques, which can be applied now by forensic glass examiners.

Genetic architecture and sexual conflict in the life history of Drosophila

Because males and females of a species express many homologous traits, sex-specific selection on these traits can shift the opposite sex away from its phenotypic optimum. This mode of sexually antagonistic selection, known as intralocus sexual conflict (IaSC), arises when the evolution of sexual dimorphism is constrained by the two sexes sharing a common gene pool. As IaSC has been historically overlooked, many outstanding questions remain. For example, what is its contribution in maintaining genetic variation for fitness in populations? What characters underlie this variation in fitness? How does the selection history of the population influence the standing genetic variation? I used the model organism Drosophila melanogaster to attempt to resolve some of these questions. The first part of my Master’s project involved assessing the detectability of sexually antagonistic alleles in populations at different stages of adaptation to the laboratory. For the second part of my Master’s project, I looked for evidence of conflict during the development of body size, a well-known sexually dimorphic trait. While the first part of my thesis proved inconclusive, the second part revealed a surprising source of sexual conflict in pre-adult stages of D. melanogaster.

Influence of the vintage, clone and rootstock on the chemical characteristics of Syrah tropical wines from Brazil.

In the Northeast of Brazil, vines can produce twice a year, because annual average temperature is 26ºC, with high solar radiation and water availability for irrigation. Many cultivars have been tested according to their adaptation to the climate and soil, and the main variety used for red wines is Syrah. This work aimed to evaluate five clones of Syrah, grafted on two rootstocks, in two harvests of the second semester of 2009 and 2010, according to the chemical analyses of the wines.The clones evaluated were 100, 174, 300, 470 and 525, the rootstocks were Paulsen 1103 and IAC 313 (Golia x Vitis caribeae). Grapes were harvested in November 2009 and 2010 and the yield was evaluated. Climate characteristics of each harvest was determined and correlated to the results. Wines were elaborated in glass tanks of 20 L, with alcoholic fermentation at 25ºC for seven days, then wines were pressed and malolactic fermentation was carried out at 18ºC for 20 days. The following parameters were analyzed: alcohol content, dry extract, total anthocyanins, total phenolic index. High performance liquid chromatography was used to determine tartaric, malic, lactic and citric organic acids. Results showed that wines presented different concentrations of classical analyses, phenolics and organic acids according to the harvest date, rootstocks and clones. Principal component analysis was applied on data and clusters with wine samples were formed, explaining the variability, and results are discussed.

Natural convection flow in a porous enclosure with localized heating from below

Natural convection flow in a two-dimensional fluid saturated porous enclosure with localized heating from below, symmetrical cooling from the sides and the top and rest of the bottom walls are insulated, has been investigated numerically. Darcy’s law for porous media along with the energy equation based on the 1st law of thermodynamics has been considered. Implicit finite volume method with TDMA solver is used to solve the governing equations. Localized heating is simulated by a centrally located isothermal heat source on the bottom wall, and four different values of the dimensionless heat source length, 1/5, 2/5, 3/5 and 4/5 are considered. The effect of heat source length and the Rayleigh number on streamlines and isotherms are presented, as well as the variation of the local rate of heat transfer in terms of the local Nusselt number from the heated wall. Finally, the average Nusselt number at the heated part of the bottom wall has been shown against Rayleigh number for the non-dimensional heat source length.

Expanding universe: thermodynamical aspects from different models

The pivotal point of the paper is to discuss the behavior of temperature, pressure, energy density as a function of volume along with determination of caloric EoS from following two model: w(z)=w (0)+w (1)ln(1+z) & . The time scale of instability for this two models is discussed. In the paper we then generalize our result and arrive at general expression for energy density irrespective of the model. The thermodynamical stability for both of the model and the general case is discussed from this viewpoint. We also arrive at a condition on the limiting behavior of thermodynamic parameter to validate the third law of thermodynamics and interpret the general mathematical expression of integration constant U (0) (what we get while integrating energy conservation equation) physically relating it to number of micro states. The constraint on the allowed values of the parameters of the models is discussed which ascertains stability of universe. The validity of thermodynamical laws within apparent and event horizon is discussed.

Thermo-plastic instability in simple shear

A theoretical description of thermo-plastic instability in simple shear is presented in a system of equations describing plastic deformation, the first law of thermodynamics and Fourier's heat transfer rule. Both mechanical and thermodynamical parameters influence instability and it is shown that two different modes of instability may exist. One of them is dominated by thermal softening and has a characteristic time and length, connected to each other by thermal diffusion.A criterion combining thermal softening, current stress, density, specific heat, work-hardening, thermal conductivity and current strain rate is obtained and practical implications are discussed.

偏动式双程SMA驱动器工作机理与能量转换研究

研究了偏动式双程ＳＭＡ驱动器的工作机理，建立了驱动器输出力、输出位移、负载与驱动元件弹性刚度和预变形之间的变量关系。基于热力学基本定律，给出了双程ＳＭＡ驱动器工作过程中能量的周期性流动、转移和转化模型，指出双程ＳＭＡ驱动器双程做功的能量都来源于ＳＭＡ元件的相变弹性势能，能量的一部分用于来程做功，一部分在来程转移给偏置元件，用于回程时做工，还有一部分被释放掉。

Análise de um queimador infravermelho funcionando com combustível híbrido : GLP/Bio-óleo

Biomass is considered the largest renewable energy source that can be used in an environmentally sustainable. From the pyrolysis of biomass is possible to obtain products with higher energy density and better use properties. The liquid resultant of this process is traditionally called bio-oil. The use of infrared burners in industrial applications has many advantages in terms of technical-operational, for example, uniformity in the heat supply in the form of radiation and convection, with a greater control of emissions due to the passage of exhaust gases through a macroporous ceramic bed. This paper presents a commercial infrared burner adapted with an ejector proposed able to burn a hybrid configuration of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and bio-oil diluted. The dilution of bio-oil with absolute ethanol aimed to decrease the viscosity of the fluid, and improving the stability and atomization. It was introduced a temperature controller with thermocouple modulating two stages (low heat / high heat), and solenoid valves for fuels supply. The infrared burner has been tested, being the diluted bio-oil atomized, and evaluated its performance by conducting energy balance. The method of thermodynamic analysis to estimate the load was used an aluminum plate located at the exit of combustion gases and the distribution of temperatures measured by thermocouples. The dilution reduced the viscosity of the bio-oil in 75.4% and increased by 11% the lower heating value (LHV) of the same, providing a stable combustion to the burner through the atomizing with compressed air and burns combined with LPG. Injecting the hybrid fuel there was increase in the heat transfer from the plate to the environment in 21.6% and gain useful benefit of 26.7%, due to the improved in the efficiency of the 1st Law of Thermodynamics of infrared burner

Eletrônica molecular via método híbrido DFT/FGNE em anéis fenilas acoplados a eletrodos metálicos de nanotubos de carbono: a regra de conformação e quiralidade molecular

Nesta tese, investigamos detalhadamente as propriedades de transporte eletrônico, conformacional e de simetria de estruturas de Nanotubos de Carbono de Parede Simples zigzag (9,0), NCPS zz9, acopladas a anéis fenilas (2, 3, 4 e 5) sob influência de campo elétrico externo (voltagem) via método híbrido da Teoria do Funcional Densidade (DFT) do tipo B3LYP 6-311G(d,p) combinado com Função de Green de Não Equilíbrio (FGNE) e Teoria de Grupo. Verificamos uma boa relação entre: 1- o índice quiral () por Teoria de Grupo e a lei do cos2 (, ângulo diedral) por geometria sob a influência de campo elétrico externo, pois  só depende das posições atômicas (), das conformações, e também está fortemente correlacionada a corrente que passa através do sistema; 2- a condutância normalizada (G/Go) é proporcional a cos2 na região do gap (EHOMO-ELUMO), isto é, nas regiões onde ocorre a ressonância e a resistência diferencial negativa (RDN); 3- o gráfico Fowler-Northeim (FN) exibe mínimo de voltagem (Vmin) que ocorre sempre que a cauda de um pico de transmissão ressonante entra na janela de voltagem, isto é, quando nessas estruturas ocorre uma RDN, pois o número de RDN na curva I-V está associado ao número de Vmin no gráfico FN e pode ser explicado pelo modelo de transporte molecular coerente; 4- a altura da barreira (EF - EHOMO e ELUMO - EF) como função do comprimento molecular; 5- Vmin como função da altura da barreira (EF - EHOMO) e do comprimento molecular. Assim, 1 implica que a conformação molecular desempenha um papel preponderante na determinação das propriedades de transporte da junção; 2 sugere que a lei do cos2 tem uma aplicabilidade mais geral independentemente da natureza dos eletrodos; 3 serve como um instrumento espectroscópico e também para identificar a molécula na junção; 4 e 5 a medida que o comprimento molecular atinge um certo valor (1,3nm) o Vmin permanece praticamente inalterado. Os resultados mostraram que as propriedades estruturais sofrem alterações significativas com o aumento da voltagem que estão em boa concordância com os valores encontrados na literatura. O comportamento das curvas IxV e G/GoxV perdem sua dependência linear para dar origem a um comportamento não linear com aparecimento de RDN. Tal ponto revela a modificação estrutural sofrida pelo sistema. A curva IxV confirmou as afirmações que foram feitas através da análise estrutural para o sistema considerado e mostrou como se dá o fluxo de carga nos sistemas analisados.

Modelagem e controle de uma incubadora neonatal

Este trabalho apresenta uma introdução sobre a história da neonatologia, a conceituação e a modelagem matemática do sistema térmico de uma incubadora neonatal, contendo a relação da mesma com um recém-nascido quanto a trocas térmicas, a partir da primeira lei da termodinâmica. É apresentado o método que foi utilizado para a linearização (Séries de Taylor) e os pontos de operação calculados para o sistema linear obtido no formato de espaço de estados, e a partir deste foi obtida uma representação em função de transferência. A partir da modelagem matemática do sistema, foi realizado um teste em malha aberta para verificar as características do mesmo, como estabilidade, constante de tempo e convergência para um valor final desejado, e como o sistema real opera em malha fechada, foi também realizado um teste com o sistema nesta configuração contendo um ganho unitário de malha. O comportamento do sistema não linear foi comparado ao do sistema linearizado através de suas curvas de resposta temporal a uma entrada degrau para a verificação da validade da representação linear, e após a sua validação, diagramas de bode foram gerados para diferentes parâmetros do modelo, para observar-se o efeito desta variação no comportamento dinâmico da planta, e foi percebido que o comportamento do modelo não é alterado de forma substancial para a variação dentro das faixas verificadas. Um controlador proporcional e integral (PI) foi então projetado para a eliminação do erro de regime permanente presente resposta temporal do sistema.. Testes sob diversas condições de operação foram realizados no sistema linear assim como as curvas de variação de temperatura foram obtidas com o controlador aplicado no modelo não linear, sendo os resultados considerados satisfatórios para este tipo de aplicação. Este trabalho foi realizado com o auxílio da ferramenta computacional Simulink do software Matalb®.

Metodologia para análise exergética-econômica de plantas a vapor para geração de eletricidade consumido resíduo de biomassa amazônica

A disponibilidade de recursos energéticos em um país impacta diretamente no seu desenvolvimento sócio-econômico. Com a elevação dos preços dos energéticos no Brasil, a eficientização do uso de energia tornar-se uma atividade estratégica para o setor industrial. Com esse intuito as avaliações energéticas empregadas nesse setor objetivam otimizar a eficiência dos seus sistemas térmicos. Essas avaliações de desempenho energético são baseadas na Primeira Lei da Termodinâmica e são capazes de identificar apenas as perdas de energia, diferente da avaliação exergética que permite qualificar essa energia perdida. Devido a essa análise de qualificação da energia ser sofisticada e demorada, tornar-se necessário desenvolver um protocolo que seja executado de forma rápida e que contemple as particularidades da Amazônia, tanto o clima quanto a sua biomassa. Para isto, este trabalho propõe e aplica uma metodologia através do emprego de análises energéticas, exergética e exergo-econômica em uma planta de potência a vapor instalada no Estado Pará e operando com ciclo Rankine. Com aplicação dessas avaliações obtêm-se as taxas de energia e de perdas de energia, as taxas de exergia, as taxas de destruição de exergia, as taxas de custo de cada produto e o custo monetário da capacidade energética produzida pela planta em R$/kWh. Com esses resultados foi possível identificar as maiores perdas energéticas da planta, quantificar o custo da destruição de exergia nos principais equipamentos e a taxa de custo dos produtos principais da planta que são energia térmica e energia elétrica. Isto permite visualizar o desempenho energético, exergético e econômico em cada equipamento da planta e indicar os processos que merecem um trabalho de desenvolvimento para melhorar a sua eficiência econômica. Além disso, o custo da capacidade energética em R$/kWh produzida pela planta a vapor foi comparado com o valor cobrado pela concessionária de energia local. Essa comparação mostrou que central geradora de energia tem um custo de energia menor do que o valor confrontado.