Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Memoria de la actividad de hospitales concertados de Andalucía 2010 [Recurso electrónico]

Publicado en la página web de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social: www.juntadeandalucia.es/salud

Confabulation in schizophrenia: a neuropsychological study.

Confabulation has been documented in schizophrenia, but its neuropsychological correlates appear to be different from those of confabulation in neurological disease states. Forty-five schizophrenic patients and 37 controls were administered a task requiring them to recall fables. They also underwent testing with a range of memory and executive tasks. The patients with schizophrenia produced significantly more confabulations than the controls. After correcting for multiple comparisons, confabulation was not significantly associated with memory impairment, and was associated with impairment on only one of eight executive measures, the Brixton Test. Confabulation scores were also associated with impairment on two semantic memory tests. Confabulation was correlated with intrusion errors in recall, but not false positive errors in a recognition task. The findings suggest that confabulation in schizophrenia is unrelated to the episodic memory impairment seen in the disorder. However, the association with a circumscribed deficit in executive function could be consistent with a defective strategic retrieval account of confabulation similar to that of Moscovitch and co-workers, interacting with defective semantic memory.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Aggravation of chronic stress effects on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory in LPA₁ receptor knockout mice.

BACKGROUND The lysophosphatidic acid LPA₁ receptor regulates plasticity and neurogenesis in the adult hippocampus. Here, we studied whether absence of the LPA₁ receptor modulated the detrimental effects of chronic stress on hippocampal neurogenesis and spatial memory. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Male LPA₁-null (NULL) and wild-type (WT) mice were assigned to control or chronic stress conditions (21 days of restraint, 3 h/day). Immunohistochemistry for bromodeoxyuridine and endogenous markers was performed to examine hippocampal cell proliferation, survival, number and maturation of young neurons, hippocampal structure and apoptosis in the hippocampus. Corticosterone levels were measured in another a separate cohort of mice. Finally, the hole-board test assessed spatial reference and working memory. Under control conditions, NULL mice showed reduced cell proliferation, a defective population of young neurons, reduced hippocampal volume and moderate spatial memory deficits. However, the primary result is that chronic stress impaired hippocampal neurogenesis in NULLs more severely than in WT mice in terms of cell proliferation; apoptosis; the number and maturation of young neurons; and both the volume and neuronal density in the granular zone. Only stressed NULLs presented hypocortisolemia. Moreover, a dramatic deficit in spatial reference memory consolidation was observed in chronically stressed NULL mice, which was in contrast to the minor effect observed in stressed WT mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE These results reveal that the absence of the LPA₁ receptor aggravates the chronic stress-induced impairment to hippocampal neurogenesis and its dependent functions. Thus, modulation of the LPA₁ receptor pathway may be of interest with respect to the treatment of stress-induced hippocampal pathology.

An indirect immunofluorescence antibody test employing whole eggs as the antigen for the diagnosis of abdominal angiostrongyliasis

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a potentially fatal zoonotic disease with a broad geographical distribution throughout Central and South America. This study assessed the performance of Angiostrongylus costaricensis eggs as the antigen in an indirect immunofluorescence assay for the determination of parasite-specific IgG and IgG1 antibodies. For prevalence studies, an IgG antibody titre > 16 was identified as the diagnostic threshold with the best performance, providing 93.7% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. Cross reactivity was evaluated with 65 additional samples from patients with other known parasitic infections. Cross reactivity was observed only in samples from individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis. For clinical diagnosis, we recommend the determination of IgG only as a screening test. IgG1 determination may be used to increase the specificity of the results for patients with a positive screening test.

L'examen neuropsychologique en pratique quotidienne [Neuropsychological test in daily practice]

Neuropsychology is a scientific discipline, born in the XIX century, and bridges the fields of neurology and psychology. Neuropsychologists apply scientific knowledge about the relationship between brain function and mental performances. The major clinical role of a neuropsychological evaluation is to help to establish medical and functional diagnosis in patients (adults or infants) with different neurological pathologies such as stroke, traumatic brain injury, dementia, epilepsy.... Such analysis necessitates accurate observation of behaviour and administration of tests of mental abilities (e.g. language, memory...). Test results can also help to clarify the nature of cognitive difficulties and to support the formulation of plans for neuropsychological therapy and functional adjustment in every day life.

A comparative study of the TF-Test®, Kato-Katz, Hoffman-Pons-Janer, Willis and Baermann-Moraes coprologic methods for the detection of human parasitosis

This study compares the diagnostic accuracy of the TF-Test® (TFT) for human parasitosis with results obtained using the traditional Kato-Katz (KK), Hoffman-Pons-Janer (HPJ), Willis and Baermann-Moraes (BM) techniques. Overall, four stool samples were taken from each individual; three alternate-day TFT stool samples and another sample that was collected in a universal container. Stool samples were taken from 331 inhabitants of the community of Quilombola Santa Cruz. The gold standard (GS) for protozoa detection was defined as the combined results for TFT, HPJ and Willis coproscopic techniques; for helminth detection, GS was defined as the combined results for all five coproscopic techniques (TFT, KK, HPJ, Willis and BM). The positivity rate of each method was compared using the McNemar test. While the TFT exhibited similar positivity rates to the GS for Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (82.4%) and Giardia duodenalis (90%), HPJ and Willis techniques exhibited significantly lower positivity rates for these protozoa. All tests exhibited significantly lower positivity rates compared with GS for the diagnosis of helminths. The KK technique had the highest positivity rate for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni (74.6%), while the TFT had the highest positivity rates for Ascaris lumbricoides (58.1%) and hookworm (75%); HPJ technique had the highest positivity rate for Strongyloides stercoralis (50%). Although a combination of tests is the most accurate method for the diagnosis of enteral parasites, the TFT reliably estimates the prevalence of protozoa and selected helminths, such as A. lumbricoides and hookworm. Further studies are needed to evaluate the detection accuracy of the TFT in samples with varying numbers of parasites.

An evaluation of the dot-ELISA procedure as a diagnostic test in an area with a high prevalence of human Toxocara canis infection

The aim of this work was to evaluate a dot-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (dot-ELISA) using excretory-secretory antigens from the larval stages of Toxocara canis for the diagnosis of toxocariasis. A secondary aim was to establish the optimal conditions for its use in an area with a high prevalence of human T. canis infection. The dot-ELISA test was standardised using different concentrations of the antigen fixed on nitrocellulose paper strips and increasing dilutions of the serum and conjugate. Both the dot-ELISA and standard ELISA methods were tested in parallel with the same batch of sera from controls and from individuals living in the problem area. The best results were obtained with 1.33 µg/mL of antigen, dilutions of 1/80 for the samples and controls and a dilution of 1/5,000 for the anti-human IgG-peroxidase conjugate. All steps of the procedure were performed at room temperature. The coincidence between ELISA and dot-ELISA was 85% and the kappa index was 0.72. The dot-ELISA test described here is rapid, easy to perform and does not require expensive equipment. Thus, this test is suitable for the serological diagnosis of human T. canis infection in field surveys and in the primary health care centres of endemic regions.

La memoria tra pulsioni autobiografiche e rielaborazione narrativa : forme e trasformazioni del tempo nella narrativa di Giovanna Zangrandi

La tesi è imperniata sulle modalità di rappresentazione letteraria del tempo e délia memoria (dunque sulla relazione fra tempo e narratività) nella produzione narrativa ad ampio respiro délia scrittrice Giovanna Zangrandi.¦Il canone delle opere prese in esame comprende, in particolar modo, i romanzi I Brusaz (1954) e Orsola nelle stagioni (1957), la narrazione a carattere autobiografico de II campo rosso (1959) e il diario resistenziale Igiorni Veri (1963).¦Il percorso di indagine si è awalso di strumenti teorici e analitici interdisciplinari: alla critica e alla prassi letteraria è stata affiancata una strumentazione di matrice storico-filosofica, sociologica e, in misura minore, psicanalitica.¦La tesi si articola in diverse sezioni. Nella prima parte del lavoro vengono esplorati alcuni nessi fondanti del lavoro: il rapporto fra storia e memoria, la relazione fra memoria individuale e memoria collettiva, la dialettica fra ricordo e oblio e quella fra memoria e narrazione, ossia ira contenuti mnestici individuali e loro configurazione letteraria; successivamente la tesi si focalizza sul nesso individuabile, soprattutto nelle opere più scopertamente autobiografiche di Giovanna Zangrandi, tra testo letterario e meccanismi individuali del ricordo, analizzando la dialettica tra pulsione autobiografica e sua rielaborazione tematica, tra piani memoriali soggettivi e loro traduzione narrativa.¦Nell'ultima parte del percorso critico la tesi si sofferma, in particolare, sulle complesse relazioni instaurate daU'autrice, nel diario I giorni veri, fra dimensioni storico-memoriali, piani autobiografïci e sistemi letterari. A taie fine, il punto di riferimento teorico fondamentale è costituito dalla prospettiva linguististica di Harald Weinrich, applicata alio studio dei tempi verbali, in base all'assunto secondo il quale il tempo verbale non esprime necessariamente una dimensione cronologica, quanto piuttosto una condizione psicologica délia soggettività narrante.¦Soffermandosi su un aspetto flnora inesplorato nell'ambito délia produzione narrativa di Giovanna Zangrandi, il lavoro evidenzia come la dialettica memoria/oblio e la corrispondente dicotomia tra passato e présente tendano a trasformarsi nella direttrice tematica fondamentale - nonchè in uno dei tratti più interessanti e significativi - dell'opera zangrandiana.