Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison

We compare the quasi-equilibrium heat balances, as well as their responses to 4×CO2 perturbation, among three global climate models with the aim to identify and explain inter-model differences in ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes. We find that, in quasi-equilibrium, convective and mixed layer processes, as well as eddy-related processes, cause cooling of the subsurface ocean. The cooling is balanced by warming caused by advective and diapycnally diffusive processes. We also find that in the CO2-perturbed climates the largest contribution to OHU comes from changes in vertical mixing processes and the mean circulation, particularly in the extra-tropics, caused both by changes in wind forcing, and by changes in high-latitude buoyancy forcing. There is a substantial warming in the tropics, a significant part of which occurs because of changes in horizontal advection in extra-tropics. Diapycnal diffusion makes only a weak contribution to the OHU, mainly in the tropics, due to increased stratification. There are important qualitative differences in the contribution of eddy-induced advection and isopycnal diffusion to the OHU among the models. The former is related to the different values of the coefficients used in the corresponding scheme. The latter is related to the different tapering formulations of the isopycnal diffusion scheme. These differences affect the OHU in the deep ocean, which is substantial in two of the models, the dominant region of deep warming being the Southern Ocean. However, most of the OHU takes place above 2000 m, and the three models are quantitatively similar in their global OHU efficiency and its breakdown among processes and as a function of latitude.

Implication of methodological uncertainties for mid-Holocene sea surface temperature reconstructions

We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations. Further evaluations of potential subsurface and/or seasonal artifacts that may contribute to obscure the MH SST reconstructions are urgently needed to provide reliable benchmarks for model evaluations.

Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model

Assessment of the CMD Mini-Explorer, a new low-frequency multi-coil electromagnetic device, for archaeological investigations

In this article we assess the abilities of a new electromagnetic (EM) system, the CMD Mini-Explorer, for prospecting of archaeological features in Ireland and the UK. The Mini-Explorer is an EM probe which is primarily aimed at the environmental/geological prospecting market for the detection of pipes and geology. It has long been evident from the use of other EM devices that such an instrument might be suitable for shallow soil studies and applicable for archaeological prospecting. Of particular interest for the archaeological surveyor is the fact that the Mini-Explorer simultaneously obtains both quadrature (‘conductivity’) and in-phase (relative to ‘magnetic susceptibility’) data from three depth levels. As the maximum depth range is probably about 1.5 m, a comprehensive analysis of the subsoil within that range is possible. As with all EM devices the measurements require no contact with the ground, thereby negating the problem of high contact resistance that often besets earth resistance data during dry spells. The use of the CMD Mini-Explorer at a number of sites has demonstrated that it has the potential to detect a range of archaeological features and produces high-quality data that are comparable in quality to those obtained from standard earth resistance and magnetometer techniques. In theory the ability to measure two phenomena at three depths suggests that this type of instrument could reduce the number of poor outcomes that are the result of single measurement surveys. The high success rate reported here in the identification of buried archaeology using a multi-depth device that responds to the two most commonly mapped geophysical phenomena has implications for evaluation style surveys. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The influence of sea ice dynamics on the climate sensitivity and memory to increased Antarctic sea ice

The study analyzes the sensitivity and memory of the Southern Hemisphere coupled climate system to increased Antarctic sea ice (ASI), taking into account the persistence of the sea ice maxima in the current climate. The mechanisms involved in restoring the climate balance under two sets of experiments, which differ in regard to their sea ice models, are discussed. The experiments are perturbed with extremes of ASI and integrated for 10 yr in a large 30-member ensemble. The results show that an ASI maximum is able to persist for ; 4 yr in the current climate, followed by a negative sea ice phase. The sea ice insulating effect during the positive phase reduces heat fluxes south of 60 8 S, while at the same time these are intensified at the sea ice edge. The increased air stability over the sea ice field strengthens the polar cell while the baroclinicity increases at midlatitudes. The mean sea level pressure is reduced (increased) over high latitudes (midlatitudes), typical of the southern annular mode (SAM) positive phase. The Southern Ocean (SO) becomes colder and fresher as the sea ice melts mainly through sea ice lateral melting, the consequence of which is an increase in the ocean stability by buoyancy and mixing changes. The climate sensitivity is triggered by the sea ice insulating process and the resulting freshwater pulse (fast response), while the climate equilibrium is restored by the heat stored in the SO subsurface layers (long response). It is concluded that the time needed for the ASI anomaly to be dissipated and/or melted is shortened by the sea ice dynamical processes.

Modelling the bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in agricultural food chains for regulatory exposure assessment

New models for estimating bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in the agricultural food chain were developed using recent improvements to plant uptake and cattle transfer models. One model named AgriSim was based on K OW regressions of bioaccumulation in plants and cattle, while the other was a steady-state mechanistic model, AgriCom. The two developed models and European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), as a benchmark, were applied to four reported food chain (soil/air-grass-cow-milk) scenarios to evaluate the performance of each model simulation against the observed data. The four scenarios considered were as follows: (1) polluted soil and air, (2) polluted soil, (3) highly polluted soil surface and polluted subsurface and (4) polluted soil and air at different mountain elevations. AgriCom reproduced observed milk bioaccumulation well for all four scenarios, as did AgriSim for scenarios 1 and 2, but EUSES only did this for scenario 1. The main causes of the deviation for EUSES and AgriSim were the lack of the soil-air-plant pathway and the ambient air-plant pathway, respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that soil-air-plant and ambient air-plant pathway should be calculated separately and the K OW regression of transfer factor to milk used in EUSES be avoided. AgriCom satisfied the recommendations that led to the low residual errors between the simulated and the observed bioaccumulation in agricultural food chain for the four scenarios considered. It is therefore recommended that this model should be incorporated into regulatory exposure assessment tools. The model uncertainty of the three models should be noted since the simulated concentration in milk from 5th to 95th percentile of the uncertainty analysis often varied over two orders of magnitude. Using a measured value of soil organic carbon content was effective to reduce this uncertainty by one order of magnitude.

The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5–0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59–0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Formulation of a tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme

This work describes the tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme addressed to simulate the diurnal occurrence of the urban heat island (UHI) as observed in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ; -22A degrees S; -44A degrees W) in Brazil. Reasoning about the tropical urban climate have guided the scheme implementation, starting from the original equations from Masson (Bound-Lay Meteorol 94:357-397, 2000). The modifications include (a) local scaling approaches for obtaining flux-gradient relationships in the roughness sub-layer, (b) the Monin-Obukhov similarity framework in the inertial sub-layer, (c) increasing aerodynamic conductance toward more unstable conditions, and (d) a modified urban subsurface drainage system to transfer the intercepted rainwater by roofs to the roads. Simulations along 2007 for the MARJ are obtained and compared with the climatology. The t-TEB simulation is consistent with the observations, suggesting that the timing and dynamics of the UHI in tropical cities could vary significantly from the familiar patterns observed in mid-latitude cities-with the peak heat island intensity occurring in the morning than at night. The simulations are suggesting that the thermal phase shift of this tropical diurnal UHI is a response of the surface energy budget to the large amount of solar radiation, intense evapotranspiration, and thermal response of the vegetated surfaces over a very humid soil layer.

Multiyear measurements of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers at the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region

This study analyzes and discusses data taken from oceanic and atmospheric measurements performed simultaneously at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area is one of the most dynamical frontal regions of the world ocean. Data were collected during four research cruises in the region once a year in consecutive years between 2004 and 2007. Very few studies have addressed the importance of studying the air-sea coupling at the BMC region. Lateral temperature gradients at the study region were as high as 0.3 degrees C km(-1) at the surface and subsurface. In the oceanic boundary layer, the vertical temperature gradient reached 0.08 degrees C m(-1) at 500 m depth. Our results show that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at the BMC region is modulated by the strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients present at the sea surface. The mean MABL structure is thicker over the warmside of the BMC where Brazil Current (BC) waters predominate. The opposite occurs over the coldside of the confluence where waters from the Malvinas (Falkland) Current (MC) are found. The warmside of the confluence presented systematically higher MABL top height compared to the coldside. This type of modulation at the synoptic scale is consistent to what happens in other frontal regions of the world ocean, where the MABL adjusts itself to modifications along the SST gradients. Over warm waters at the BMC region, the MABL static instability and turbulence were increased while winds at the lower portion of the MABL were strong. Over the coldside of the BC/MC front an opposite behavior is found: the MABL is thinner and more stable. Our results suggest that the sea-level pressure (SLP) was also modulated locally, together with static stability vertical mixing mechanism, by the surface condition during all cruises. SST gradients at the BMC region modulate the synoptic atmospheric pressure gradient. Postfrontal and prefrontal conditions produce opposite thermal advections in the MABL that lead to different pressure intensification patterns across the confluence.

Comparing performance of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting in inductive electromagnetic data

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) method results are shown for vertical magnetic dipole (VMD) configuration by using the EM38 equipment. Performance in the location of metallic pipes and electrical cables is compared as a function of instrumental drift correction by linear and quadratic adjusting under controlled conditions. Metallic pipes and electrical cables are buried at the IAG/USP shallow geophysical test site in Sao Paulo City. Brazil. Results show that apparent electrical conductivity and magnetic susceptibility data were affected by ambient temperature variation. In order to obtain better contrast between background and metallic targets it was necessary to correct the drift. This correction was accomplished by using linear and quadratic relation between conductivity/susceptibility and temperature intending comparative studies. The correction of temperature drift by using a quadratic relation was effective, showing that all metallic targets were located as well deeper targets were also improved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing detection and location performance of perpendicular and parallel broadside GPR antenna orientations

GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) results are shown for perpendicular broadside and parallel broadside antenna orientations. Performance in detection and localization of concrete tubes and steel tanks is compared as a function of acquisition configuration. The comparison is done using 100 MHz and 200 MHz center frequency antennas. All tubes and tanks are buried at the geophysical test site of IAG/USP in Sao Paulo city, Brazil. The results show that the long steel pipe with a 38-mm diameter was well detected with the perpendicular broadside configuration. The concrete tubes were better detected with the parallel broadside configuration, clearly showing hyperbolic diffraction events from all targets up to 2-m depth. Steel tanks were detected with the two configurations. However, the parallel broadside configuration was generated to a much lesser extent an apparent hyperbolic reflection corresponding to constructive interference of diffraction hyperbolas of adjacent targets placed at the same depth. Vertical concrete tubes and steel tanks were better contained with parallel broadside antennas, where the apexes of the diffraction hyperbolas better corresponded to the horizontal location of the buried target disposition. The two configurations provide details about buried targets emphasizing how GPR multi-component configurations have the potential to improve the subsurface image quality as well as to discriminate different buried targets. It is judged that they hold some applicability in geotechnical and geoscientific studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Programs to compute magnetization to density ratio and the magnetization inclination from 3-D gravity and magnetic anomalies

Vector field formulation based on the Poisson theorem allows an automatic determination of rock physical properties (magnetization to density ratio-MDR-and the magnetization inclination-MI) from combined processing of gravity and magnetic geophysical data. The basic assumptions (i.e., Poisson conditions) are: that gravity and magnetic fields share common sources, and that these sources have a uniform magnetization direction and MDR. In addition, the previously existing formulation was restricted to profile data, and assumed sufficiently elongated (2-D) sources. For sources that violate Poisson conditions or have a 3-D geometry, the apparent values of MDR and MI that are generated in this way have an unclear relationship to the actual properties in the subsurface. We present Fortran programs that estimate MDR and MI values for 3-D sources through processing of gridded gravity and magnetic data. Tests with simple geophysical models indicate that magnetization polarity can be successfully recovered by MDR-MI processing, even in cases where juxtaposed bodies cannot be clearly distinguished on the basis of anomaly data. These results may be useful in crustal studies, especially in mapping magnetization polarity from marine-based gravity and magnetic data. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A singular integro-differential equation model for dryout in LMFBR boiler tubes

A 2D steady model for the annular two-phase flow of water and steam in the steam-generating boiler pipes of a liquid metal fast breeder reactor is proposed The model is based on thin-layer lubrication theory and thin aerofoil theory. The exchange of mass between the vapour core and the liquid film due to evaporation of the liquid film is accounted for using some simple thermodynamics models, and the resultant change of phase is modelled by proposing a suitable Stefan problem Appropriate boundary conditions for the now are discussed The resulting non-lineal singular integro-differential equation for the shape of the liquid film free surface is solved both asymptotically and numerically (using some regularization techniques) Predictions for the length to the dryout point from the entry of the annular regime are made The influence of both the traction tau provided by the fast-flowing vapour core on the liquid layer and the mass transfer parameter eta on the dryout length is investigated

Thermal wave scattering by two overlapping and parallel cylinders

In this paper an analytical solution of the temperature of an opaque material containing two overlapping and parallel subsurface cylinders, illuminated by a modulated light beam, is presented. The method is based on the expansion of plane and cylindrical thermal waves in series of Bessel and Hankel functions. This model is addressed to the study of heat propagation in composite materials with interconnection between inclusions, as is the case of inverse opals and fiber reinforced composites. Measurements on calibrated samples using lock-in infrared thermography confirm the validity of the model.