Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model

The influence of sea ice dynamics on the climate sensitivity and memory to increased Antarctic sea ice

The study analyzes the sensitivity and memory of the Southern Hemisphere coupled climate system to increased Antarctic sea ice (ASI), taking into account the persistence of the sea ice maxima in the current climate. The mechanisms involved in restoring the climate balance under two sets of experiments, which differ in regard to their sea ice models, are discussed. The experiments are perturbed with extremes of ASI and integrated for 10 yr in a large 30-member ensemble. The results show that an ASI maximum is able to persist for ; 4 yr in the current climate, followed by a negative sea ice phase. The sea ice insulating effect during the positive phase reduces heat fluxes south of 60 8 S, while at the same time these are intensified at the sea ice edge. The increased air stability over the sea ice field strengthens the polar cell while the baroclinicity increases at midlatitudes. The mean sea level pressure is reduced (increased) over high latitudes (midlatitudes), typical of the southern annular mode (SAM) positive phase. The Southern Ocean (SO) becomes colder and fresher as the sea ice melts mainly through sea ice lateral melting, the consequence of which is an increase in the ocean stability by buoyancy and mixing changes. The climate sensitivity is triggered by the sea ice insulating process and the resulting freshwater pulse (fast response), while the climate equilibrium is restored by the heat stored in the SO subsurface layers (long response). It is concluded that the time needed for the ASI anomaly to be dissipated and/or melted is shortened by the sea ice dynamical processes.

Modelling the bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in agricultural food chains for regulatory exposure assessment

New models for estimating bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in the agricultural food chain were developed using recent improvements to plant uptake and cattle transfer models. One model named AgriSim was based on K OW regressions of bioaccumulation in plants and cattle, while the other was a steady-state mechanistic model, AgriCom. The two developed models and European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), as a benchmark, were applied to four reported food chain (soil/air-grass-cow-milk) scenarios to evaluate the performance of each model simulation against the observed data. The four scenarios considered were as follows: (1) polluted soil and air, (2) polluted soil, (3) highly polluted soil surface and polluted subsurface and (4) polluted soil and air at different mountain elevations. AgriCom reproduced observed milk bioaccumulation well for all four scenarios, as did AgriSim for scenarios 1 and 2, but EUSES only did this for scenario 1. The main causes of the deviation for EUSES and AgriSim were the lack of the soil-air-plant pathway and the ambient air-plant pathway, respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that soil-air-plant and ambient air-plant pathway should be calculated separately and the K OW regression of transfer factor to milk used in EUSES be avoided. AgriCom satisfied the recommendations that led to the low residual errors between the simulated and the observed bioaccumulation in agricultural food chain for the four scenarios considered. It is therefore recommended that this model should be incorporated into regulatory exposure assessment tools. The model uncertainty of the three models should be noted since the simulated concentration in milk from 5th to 95th percentile of the uncertainty analysis often varied over two orders of magnitude. Using a measured value of soil organic carbon content was effective to reduce this uncertainty by one order of magnitude.

The ancient Britons: groundwater fauna survived extreme climate change over tens of millions of years across NW Europe

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5–0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59–0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes.

Linking alkaline phosphatase activity with bacterial phoD gene abundance in soil from a long-term management trial

Changes in land management practices may have significant implications for soil microbial communities important in organic P turnover. Soil bacteria can increase plant P availability by excreting phosphatase enzymes which catalyze the hydrolysis of ester-phosphate bonds. Examining the diversity and abundance of alkaline phosphatase gene harboring bacteria may provide valuable insight into alkaline phosphatase production in soils. This study examined the effect of 20 years of no input organic (ORG), organic with composted manure (ORG + M), conventional (CONV) and restored prairie (PRA) management on soil P bioavailability, alkaline phosphatase activity (ALP), and abundance and diversity of ALP gene (phoD) harboring bacteria in soils from the northern Great Plains of Canada. Management system influenced bioavailable P (P < 0.001), but not total P, with the lowest concentrations in the ORG systems and the highest in PRA. Higher rates of ALP were observed in the ORG and ORG + M treatments with a significant negative correlation between bioavailable P and ALP in 2011 (r2 = 0.71; P = 0.03) and 2012 (r2 = 0.51; P = 0.02), suggesting that ALP activity increased under P limiting conditions. The phoD gene abundance was also highest in ORG and ORG + M resulting in a significant positive relationship between bacterial phoD abundance and ALP activity (r2 = 0.71; P = 0.009). Analysis of phoD bacterial community fingerprints showed a higher number of species in CONV compared to ORG and ORG + M, contrary to what was expected considering greater ALP activity under ORG management. In 2012, banding profiles of ORG + M showed fewer phoD bacterial species following the second manure application, although ALP activity is higher than in 2011. This indicates that a few species may be producing more ALP and that quantitative gene analysis was a better indicator of activity than the number of species present.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Formulation of a tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme

This work describes the tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme addressed to simulate the diurnal occurrence of the urban heat island (UHI) as observed in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ; -22A degrees S; -44A degrees W) in Brazil. Reasoning about the tropical urban climate have guided the scheme implementation, starting from the original equations from Masson (Bound-Lay Meteorol 94:357-397, 2000). The modifications include (a) local scaling approaches for obtaining flux-gradient relationships in the roughness sub-layer, (b) the Monin-Obukhov similarity framework in the inertial sub-layer, (c) increasing aerodynamic conductance toward more unstable conditions, and (d) a modified urban subsurface drainage system to transfer the intercepted rainwater by roofs to the roads. Simulations along 2007 for the MARJ are obtained and compared with the climatology. The t-TEB simulation is consistent with the observations, suggesting that the timing and dynamics of the UHI in tropical cities could vary significantly from the familiar patterns observed in mid-latitude cities-with the peak heat island intensity occurring in the morning than at night. The simulations are suggesting that the thermal phase shift of this tropical diurnal UHI is a response of the surface energy budget to the large amount of solar radiation, intense evapotranspiration, and thermal response of the vegetated surfaces over a very humid soil layer.

Multiyear measurements of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers at the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region

This study analyzes and discusses data taken from oceanic and atmospheric measurements performed simultaneously at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area is one of the most dynamical frontal regions of the world ocean. Data were collected during four research cruises in the region once a year in consecutive years between 2004 and 2007. Very few studies have addressed the importance of studying the air-sea coupling at the BMC region. Lateral temperature gradients at the study region were as high as 0.3 degrees C km(-1) at the surface and subsurface. In the oceanic boundary layer, the vertical temperature gradient reached 0.08 degrees C m(-1) at 500 m depth. Our results show that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at the BMC region is modulated by the strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients present at the sea surface. The mean MABL structure is thicker over the warmside of the BMC where Brazil Current (BC) waters predominate. The opposite occurs over the coldside of the confluence where waters from the Malvinas (Falkland) Current (MC) are found. The warmside of the confluence presented systematically higher MABL top height compared to the coldside. This type of modulation at the synoptic scale is consistent to what happens in other frontal regions of the world ocean, where the MABL adjusts itself to modifications along the SST gradients. Over warm waters at the BMC region, the MABL static instability and turbulence were increased while winds at the lower portion of the MABL were strong. Over the coldside of the BC/MC front an opposite behavior is found: the MABL is thinner and more stable. Our results suggest that the sea-level pressure (SLP) was also modulated locally, together with static stability vertical mixing mechanism, by the surface condition during all cruises. SST gradients at the BMC region modulate the synoptic atmospheric pressure gradient. Postfrontal and prefrontal conditions produce opposite thermal advections in the MABL that lead to different pressure intensification patterns across the confluence.

Comparing detection and location performance of perpendicular and parallel broadside GPR antenna orientations

GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) results are shown for perpendicular broadside and parallel broadside antenna orientations. Performance in detection and localization of concrete tubes and steel tanks is compared as a function of acquisition configuration. The comparison is done using 100 MHz and 200 MHz center frequency antennas. All tubes and tanks are buried at the geophysical test site of IAG/USP in Sao Paulo city, Brazil. The results show that the long steel pipe with a 38-mm diameter was well detected with the perpendicular broadside configuration. The concrete tubes were better detected with the parallel broadside configuration, clearly showing hyperbolic diffraction events from all targets up to 2-m depth. Steel tanks were detected with the two configurations. However, the parallel broadside configuration was generated to a much lesser extent an apparent hyperbolic reflection corresponding to constructive interference of diffraction hyperbolas of adjacent targets placed at the same depth. Vertical concrete tubes and steel tanks were better contained with parallel broadside antennas, where the apexes of the diffraction hyperbolas better corresponded to the horizontal location of the buried target disposition. The two configurations provide details about buried targets emphasizing how GPR multi-component configurations have the potential to improve the subsurface image quality as well as to discriminate different buried targets. It is judged that they hold some applicability in geotechnical and geoscientific studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Programs to compute magnetization to density ratio and the magnetization inclination from 3-D gravity and magnetic anomalies

Vector field formulation based on the Poisson theorem allows an automatic determination of rock physical properties (magnetization to density ratio-MDR-and the magnetization inclination-MI) from combined processing of gravity and magnetic geophysical data. The basic assumptions (i.e., Poisson conditions) are: that gravity and magnetic fields share common sources, and that these sources have a uniform magnetization direction and MDR. In addition, the previously existing formulation was restricted to profile data, and assumed sufficiently elongated (2-D) sources. For sources that violate Poisson conditions or have a 3-D geometry, the apparent values of MDR and MI that are generated in this way have an unclear relationship to the actual properties in the subsurface. We present Fortran programs that estimate MDR and MI values for 3-D sources through processing of gridded gravity and magnetic data. Tests with simple geophysical models indicate that magnetization polarity can be successfully recovered by MDR-MI processing, even in cases where juxtaposed bodies cannot be clearly distinguished on the basis of anomaly data. These results may be useful in crustal studies, especially in mapping magnetization polarity from marine-based gravity and magnetic data. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Rare Case of Trisomy 15pter-q21.2 Due to a De Novo Marker Chromosome

Supernumerary marker chromosomes (sSMC) may or may not be associated with an abnormal phenotype, depending on the presence of euchromatin, on their chromosomal origin and whether they are inherited. Over 80% of sSMCs are derived from acrocentric chromosomes and half of them include the short arm of chromosome 15. Generally, they appear as bisatellited isodicentric marker chromosomes, most of them are symmetric. These chromosomes are normally originated de novo and are associated with mild to severe intellectual disability but not with physical abnormalities. We report on a patient with an SMC studied using classical and molecular cytogenetic procedures (G and C banding, NOR staining, painting and centromeric fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), BAC-FISH, and SKY). The MLPA technique and DNA polymorphic markers were used in order to identify its parental origin. The marker chromosome, monosatellited and monocentric, was found to be derived from a maternal chromosome 15 and was defined as 15pter-q21.2. This is the report of the largest de novo monosatellited 15q marker chromosome ever published presenting detailed cytogenetic and clinical data. It was associated with a phenotype including cardiac defect, absence of septum pellucidum, and dysplasia of the corpus callosum. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Chromosome homologies of the highly rearranged karyotypes of four Akodon species (Rodentia, Cricetidae) resolved by reciprocal chromosome painting: the evolution of the lowest diploid number in rodents

Traditionally comparative cytogenetic studies are based mainly on banding patterns. Nevertheless, when dealing with species with highly rearranged genomes, as in Akodon species, or with other highly divergent species, cytogenetic comparisons of banding patterns prove inadequate. Hence, comparative chromosome painting has become the method of choice for genome comparisons at the cytogenetic level since it allows complete chromosome probes of a species to be hybridized in situ onto chromosomes of other species, detecting homologous genomic regions between them. In the present study, we have explored the highly rearranged complements of the Akodon species using reciprocal chromosome painting through species-specific chromosome probes obtained by chromosome sorting. The results revealed complete homology among the complements of Akodon sp. n. (ASP), 2n = 10; Akodon cursor (ACU), 2n = 15; Akodon montensis (AMO), 2n = 24; and Akodon paranaensis (APA), 2n = 44, and extensive chromosome rearrangements have been detected within the species with high precision. Robertsonian and tandem rearrangements, pericentric inversions and/or centromere repositioning, paracentric inversion, translocations, insertions, and breakpoints, where chromosomal rearrangements, seen to be favorable, were observed. Chromosome painting using the APA set of 21 autosomes plus X and Y revealed eight syntenic segments that are shared with A. montensis, A. cursor, and ASP, and one syntenic segment shared by A. montensis and A. cursor plus five exclusive chromosome associations for A. cursor and six for ASP chromosome X, except for the heterochromatin region of ASP X, and even chromosome Y shared complete homology among the species. These data indicate that all those closely related species have experienced a recent extensive process of autosomal rearrangement in which, except for ASP, there is still complete conservation of sex chromosomes homologies.

Cytogenetic characterization of Metynnis maculatus (Teleostei; Characiformes): the description in Serrasalminae of a small B chromosome bearing inactive NOR-like sequences

Mitotic chromosomes of Metynnis maculatus (KNER 1860) (Teleostei, Characiformes), a fish species that occurs in the Amazon and Parana-Paraguay river basins, were analyzed for the first time by Giemsa and Ag-NOR staining, C-banding and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with 18S and 5S rDNA sequences. The basic chromosome number of the species is 2n=62 (32M+22SM+4ST+4A) and, in addition to the 62 regular chromosomes, one small acrocentric supernumerary B chromosome was found in part of the specimens analyzed. Four active NORs were present, and constitutive heterochromatin blocks were found in the pericentromeric region of several chromosomes. A heterochromatic block was also present in the interstitial portion of the submetacentric NOR-bearing pair and the B chromosome was entirely heterochromatic. FISH using an 18S rDNA probe confirmed the results obtained with AgNO(3) staining, and an additional signal was also present on the B chromosomes. 5S rDNA sequences mapped only to the largest acrocentric pair. This is the first description of supernumerary B chromosomes in Serrasalminae, and this karyotype characterization may be useful in further studies about chromosome evolution in this fish group.

Chromosomal studies in four species of genus Chaunus (Bufonidae, Anura): localization of telomeric and ribosomal sequences after fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using telomeric and ribosomal sequences was performed in four species of toad genus Chaunus: C. ictericus, C. jimi, C. rubescens and C. schneideri. Analyses based on conventional, C-banding and Ag-NOR staining were also carried out. The four species present a 2n = 22 karyotype, composed by metacentric and submetacentric chromosomes, which were indistinguishable either after conventional staining or banding techniques. Constitutive heterochromatin was predominantly located at pericentromeric regions, and telomeric sequences (TTAGGG)(n) were restricted to the end of all chromosomes. Silver staining revealed Ag-NORs located at the short arm of pair 7, and heteromorphism in size of NOR signals was also observed. By contrast, FISH with ribosomal probes clearly demonstrated absence of any heteromorphism in size of rDNA sequences, suggesting that the difference observed after Ag-staining should be attributed to differences in chromosomal condensation and/or gene activity rather than to the number of ribosomal cistrons.

Chromosomal Evolution in the Brazilian Geckos of the Genus Gymnodactylus (Squamata, Phyllodactylidae) from the Biomes of Cerrado, Caatinga and Atlantic Rain Forest: Evidence of Robertsonian Fusion Events and Supernumerary Chromosomes

Chromosomes of the South American geckos Gymnodactylus amarali and G. geckoides from open and dry areas of the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes in Brazil, respectively, were studied for the first time, after conventional and AgNOR staining, CBG- and RBG-banding, and FISH with telomeric sequences. Comparative analyses between the karyotypes of open areas and the previously studied Atlantic forest species G. darwinii were also performed. The chromosomal polymorphisms detected in populations of G. amarali from the states of Goias and Tocantins is the result of centric fusions (2n = 38, 39 and 40), suggesting a differentiation from a 2n = 40 ancestral karyotype and the presence of supernumerary chromosomes. The CBG- and RBG-banding patterns of the Bs are described. G. geckoides has 40 chromosomes with gradually decreasing sizes, but it is distinct from the 2n = 40 karyotypes of G. amarali and G. darwinii due to occurrence of pericentric inversions or centromere repositioning. NOR location seems to be a marker for Gymnodactylus, as G. amarali and G. geckoides share a medium-sized subtelocentric NOR-bearing pair, while G. darwinii has NORs at the secondary constriction of the long arm of pair 1. The comparative analyses indicate a non-random nature of the Robertsonian rearrangements in the genus Gymnodactylus. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel