865 resultados para stochastic and dynamic analysis
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INTRODUCTION: There is conflicting evidence on the benefit of early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPSS) on the survival of patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). AIM: To assess the effect of early TIPSS on patient prognosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We carried out a meta-analysis of trials evaluating early TIPSS in cirrhotic patients with AVB. RESULTS: Four studies were included. Early TIPSS was associated with fewer deaths [odds ratio (OR)=0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.17-0.83, P=0.02], with moderate heterogeneity between studies (P=0.15, I=44%). Early TIPSS was not significantly associated with fewer deaths among Child-Pugh B patients (OR=0.35, 95% CI=0.10-1.17, P=0.087) nor among Child-Pugh C patients (OR=0.34, 95% CI=0.10-1.11, P=0.074). There was no heterogeneity between studies in the Child-Pugh B analysis (P=0.6, I=0%), but there was a high heterogeneity in the Child-Pugh C analysis (P=0.06, I=60%). Early TIPSS was associated with lower rates of bleeding within 1 year (OR=0.08, 95% CI=0.04-0.17, P<0.001) both among Child-Pugh B patients, (OR=0.15, 95% CI=0.05-0.47, P=0.001) and among Child-Pugh C patients (OR=0.05, 95% CI=0.02-0.15, P<0.001), with no heterogeneity between studies. Early TIPSS was not associated with higher rates of encephalopathy (OR=0.84, 95% CI=0.50-1.42, P=0.5). CONCLUSION: Cirrhotic patients with AVB treated with early TIPSS had lower death rates and lower rates of clinically significant bleeding within 1 year compared with patients treated without early TIPSS. Additional studies are required to identify the potential risk factors leading to a poor prognosis after early TIPSS in patients with AVB and to determine the impact of the degree of liver failure on the patient's prognosis.
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ABSTRACT The present study aimed at evaluating the heterotic group formation in guava based on quantitative descriptors and using artificial neural network (ANN). For such, we evaluated eight quantitative descriptors. Large genetic variability was found for the eight quantitative traits in the 138 genotypes of guava. The artificial neural network technique determined that the optimal number of groups was three. The grouping consistency was determined by linear discriminant analysis, which obtained classification percentage of the groups, with a value of 86 %. It was concluded that the artificial neural network method is effective to detect genetic divergence and heterotic group formation.
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BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.
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AIM: The study aimed to compare the rate of success and cost of anal fistula plug (AFP) insertion and endorectal advancement flap (ERAF) for anal fistula. METHOD: Patients receiving an AFP or ERAF for a complex single fistula tract, defined as involving more than a third of the longitudinal length of of the anal sphincter, were registered in a prospective database. A regression analysis was performed of factors predicting recurrence and contributing to cost. RESULTS: Seventy-one patients (AFP 31, ERAF 40) were analysed. Twelve (39%) recurrences occurred in the AFP and 17 (43%) in the ERAF group (P = 1.00). The median length of stay was 1.23 and 2.0 days (P < 0.001), respectively, and the mean cost of treatment was euro5439 ± euro2629 and euro7957 ± euro5905 (P = 0.021), respectively. On multivariable analysis, postoperative complications, underlying inflammatory bowel disease and fistula recurring after previous treatment were independent predictors of de novo recurrence. It also showed that length of hospital stay ≤ 1 day to be the most significant independent contributor to lower cost (P = 0.023). CONCLUSION: Anal fistula plug and ERAF were equally effective in treating fistula-in-ano, but AFP has a mean cost saving of euro2518 per procedure compared with ERAF. The higher cost for ERAF is due to a longer median length of stay.
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OBJECTIVE: Studies suggest that smoking may be a risk factor for the development of microvascular complications such as diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between smoking and DPN in persons with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A systematic review of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane clinical trials databases was conducted for the period from January 1966 to November 2014 for cohort, cross-sectional and case-control studies that assessed the relationship between smoking and DPN. Separate meta-analyses for prospective cohort studies and case-control or cross-sectional studies were performed using random effects models. RESULTS: Thirty-eight studies (10 prospective cohort and 28 cross-sectional) were included. The prospective cohort studies included 5558 participants without DPN at baseline. During follow-up ranging from 2 to 10 years, 1550 cases of DPN occurred. The pooled unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of developing DPN associated with smoking was 1.26 (95% CI 0.86-1.85; I(2) = 74%; evidence grade: low strength). Stratified analyses of the prospective studies revealed that studies of higher quality and with better levels of adjustment and longer follow-up showed a significant positive association between smoking and DPN, with less heterogeneity. The cross-sectional studies included 27,594 participants. The pooled OR of DPN associated with smoking was 1.42 (95% CI 1.21-1.65; I(2) = 65%; evidence grade: low strength). There was no evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking may be associated with an increased risk of DPN in persons with diabetes. Further studies are needed to test whether this association is causal and whether smoking cessation reduces the risk of DPN in adults with diabetes.
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The distribution of the genus Barbadocladius Cranston & Krosch (Diptera: Chironomidae), previously reported from Chile to Bolivia, has extended northwards. Larvae, pupae and pupal exuviae of this genus have been found in the high mountain tropical streams of Peru to 9°22′56″, but are restricted to very high altitude streams (altitudes over 3,278 m asl) compared to the lower altitude streams (below 1,100 m asl) in which the genus is reported in Chile and Argentina. Based on morphological studies, both described species in the genus, Barbadocladius andinus Cranston & Krosch and Barbadocladius limay Cranston & Krosch, have been found in Peru as pupae or pupal exuviae. Morphological analysis of the larvae and pupae revealed no differences between the two described species from Patagonia and Peru, which are of similar size and with a similar armament of hooklets and spines in pupal tergites and sternites. However, molecular analysis of larvae and pupae revealed that in Peru, there are at least two different evolutionary lines, one distributed widely and another restricted to one site. Phylogenetic analysis (using cox1 mitochondrial sequences) of all available sequences of Barbadocladius shows that the Chilean and Argentinean material differs from that of Peru. Therefore, a total of four molecular segregates are identified, although morphologically, neither larvae nor the pupae may be differentiated.
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Le nombre d'examens tomodensitométriques (Computed Tomography, CT) effectués chaque année étant en constante augmentation, différentes techniques d'optimisation, dont les algorithmes de reconstruction itérative permettant de réduire le bruit tout en maintenant la résolution spatiale, ont étés développées afin de réduire les doses délivrées. Le but de cette étude était d'évaluer l'impact des algorithmes de reconstruction itérative sur la qualité image à des doses effectives inférieures à 0.3 mSv, comparables à celle d'une radiographie thoracique. Vingt CT thoraciques effectués à cette dose effective ont été reconstruits en variant trois paramètres: l'algorithme de reconstruction, rétroprojection filtrée versus reconstruction itérative iDose4; la matrice, 5122 versus 7682; et le filtre de résolution en densité (mou) versus spatiale (dur). Ainsi, 8 séries ont été reconstruites pour chacun des 20 CT thoraciques. La qualité d'image de ces 8 séries a d'abord été évaluée qualitativement par deux radiologues expérimentés en aveugle en se basant sur la netteté des parois bronchiques et de l'interface entre le parenchyme pulmonaire et les vaisseaux, puis quantitativement en utilisant une formule de merit, fréquemment utilisée dans le développement de nouveaux algorithmes et filtres de reconstruction. La performance diagnostique de la meilleure série acquise à une dose effective inférieure à 0.3 mSv a été comparée à celle d'un CT de référence effectué à doses standards en relevant les anomalies du parenchyme pulmonaire. Les résultats montrent que la meilleure qualité d'image, tant qualitativement que quantitativement a été obtenue en utilisant iDose4, la matrice 5122 et le filtre mou, avec une concordance parfaite entre les classements quantitatif et qualitatif des 8 séries. D'autre part, la détection des nodules pulmonaires de plus de 4mm étaient similaire sur la meilleure série acquise à une dose effective inférieure à 0.3 mSv et le CT de référence. En conclusion, les CT thoraciques effectués à une dose effective inférieure à 0.3 mSv reconstruits avec iDose4, la matrice 5122 et le filtre mou peuvent être utilisés avec confiance pour diagnostiquer les nodules pulmonaires de plus de 4mm.
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With the aim of monitoring the dynamics of the Livingston Island ice cap, the Departament de Geodinàmica i Geofísica of the Universitat de Barcelona began ye a r ly surveys in the austral summer of 1994-95 on Johnsons Glacier. During this field campaign 10 shallow ice cores were sampled with a manual ve rtical ice-core drilling machine. The objectives were: i) to detect the tephra layer accumulated on the glacier surface, attributed to the 1970 Deception Island pyroclastic eruption, today interstratified; ii) to verify wheter this layer might serve as a reference level; iii) to measure the 1 3 7Cs radio-isotope concentration accumulated in the 1965 snow stratum; iv) to use the isochrone layer as a mean of verifying the age of the 1970 tephra layer; and, v) to calculate both the equilibrium line of the glacier and average mass balance over the last 28 years (1965-1993). The stratigr a p hy of the cores, their cumulative density curves and the isothermal ice temperatures recorded confi rm that Johnsons Glacier is a temperate glacier. Wi n d, solar radiation heating and liquid water are the main agents controlling the ve rtical and horizontal redistribution of the volcanic and cryoclastic particles that are sedimented and remain interstratified within the g l a c i e r. It is because of this redistribution that the 1970 tephra layer does not always serve as a ve ry good reference level. The position of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) in 1993, obtained by the 1 3 7Cs spectrometric analysis, varies from about 200 m a.s.l. to 250 m a.s.l. This indicates a rising trend in the equilibrium line altitude from the beginning of the 1970s to the present day. The va rying slope orientation of Johnsons Glacier relative to the prevailing NE wind gives rise to large local differences in snow accumulation, which locally modifies the equilibrium line altitude. In the cores studied, 1 3 7Cs appears to be associated with the 1970 tephra laye r. This indicates an intense ablation episode throughout the sampled area (at least up to 330 m a.s.l), which probably occurred synchronically to the 1970 tephra deposition or later. A rough estimate of the specific mass balance reveals a considerable accumulation gradient related to the increase with altitude.
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Iberia underwent intraplate deformation during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. In eastem Ibena, compression took place during the Palaeogene and early Miocene, giving rise to the Iberian Chain, and extension started during the early Miocene in the coastal areas and the Valencia trough; during early Miocene compression continued in the western Iberian Chain whereas extension had started in the eastern Iberian Chain. From the kinematic data obtained from the major compressional and extensional structures formed dunng the Cenozoic, a simple dynamic model using Bott's (1959) formula is presented. The results show that both extension and compression may have been produced assuming a main horizontal stress-axis approximately N-S, in a similar direction that the convergence between Europe, Ibena and Afnca dunng the Cenozoic.
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Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.
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Le cancer du poumon est la première cause de mortalité associée au cancer dans le monde. Le traitement curatif des tumeurs pulmonaires non-à-petites-cellules (NSCLC) diagnostiquées à un stade précoce se base sur une approche chirurgicale. Cependant, étant donné les comorbidités liées à la consommation de tabac, dont la bronchopneumopathie chronique occupe la première place, l'éligibilité chirurgicale pour ce type de cancer se trouve fréquemment limitée. Dans ce contexte, l'emploi de la radiothérapie stéréotaxique (SBRT) est une alternative valable chez les patients atteints d'un NSCLC primaire de stade précoce, et qui sont considérés inopérables à cause de leurs comorbidités. Depuis peu seulemement, le spectre de la SBRT a été élargi aux patients atteints d'un deuxième NSCLC primaire (SPLC), faisant suite à un premier NSCLC, traité avec un but curatif. Ils concernent donc des patients ayant déjà subits une intervention chirurgicale au préalable et qui présentent une réserve fonctionnelle pulmonaire extrêmement réduite. Le succès croissant de la SBRT résulte soit d'une efficacité thérapeutique comparables à la chirurgie, soit de sa toxicité qui semble limitée. À notre connaissance, seulement une étude a reporté des issues cliniques de patients affectés par des NSCLC primaires traités par SBRT. Cette dernière a utilisé la tomothérapie comme système d'irradiation (T-SBRT), sur un faible échantillon de patients (n = 27). Concernant l'irradiation des patients présentant des SPLC, la littérature disponible est pauvre et aucune publication a décrit l'utilisation de la T-SBRT. Ces éléments innovants ont donc motivé la rédaction d'un travail de thèse concernant les premières données cliniques de l'expérience faite au CHUV. Du point de vue des effets secondaires, si la pneumonie actinique précoce et tardive survenant au niveau du champ d'irradiation est désormais une complication iatrogène bien connue de la SBRT, une seule étude s'est intéressée à ce sujet dans le cadre de la T-SBRT. De plus, une entité bénigne et transitoire de pneumonie ( ?) a été reconnue depuis peu : la pneumonie organisée radio-induite (OP). Celle-ci semble se chevaucher comme un autre effet iatrogène à l'extérieur du champ d'irradiation. Originellement, cette dernière avait été rapportée dans les suites de la radiothérapie pour les cancer du sein. Elle a été décrite comme étant initialement limitée au champ d'irradiation et successivement pouvant s'étendre dynamiquement en dehors de celui-ci. Nous avons donc supposé que des infiltrats de OP peuvent être présents chez des patients asymptomatiques, et que ce dynamisme pourrait être identifié déjà au sein du champ d'irradiation. Notre étude a démontré que le traitement par T-SBRT garde des issues cliniques très encourageantes, aussi bien pour les tumeurs primaires que pour les SPLC. Entre autre, ce traitement semble avoir une toxicité limitée, et l'existence vraisemblable de la OP, déjà au sein du champ d'irradiation, peut aider les radiologues à différencier les infiltrats radio-induits d'une une récidive tumorale.
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Globalisation and technological advances have made possible to offshore specific productive tasks (that do not require physical proximity to the actual location of the work unit) to foreign countries where these are usually performed at lower costs. We analyse the effect of task trade (i.e. task offshorability) on Spanish regional and national employment levels correlating a newly built index of task-delocalisation index to key variables such as the region’s wealth, the worker’s age and level of education, the importance of the service sector and the technological level of the economic activities undertaken in that particular geographical area. We conclude that approximately 25 per cent of Spanish occupations are potentially affected by task trade / offshoring and that this is likely to benefit Spanish economy (and the performance of specific regions, categories of workers and sectors) being Spain a potential recipient of tasks offshored from abroad. Also we obtain that Spain’s trade in tasks correlates strongly with the above variables, presenting significant regional differences.
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BACKGROUND: Habitual walking speed predicts many clinical conditions later in life, but it declines with age. However, which particular exercise intervention can minimize the age-related gait speed loss is unclear. PURPOSE: Our objective was to determine the effects of strength, power, coordination, and multimodal exercise training on healthy old adults' habitual and fast gait speed. METHODS: We performed a computerized systematic literature search in PubMed and Web of Knowledge from January 1984 up to December 2014. Search terms included 'Resistance training', 'power training', 'coordination training', 'multimodal training', and 'gait speed (outcome term). Inclusion criteria were articles available in full text, publication period over past 30 years, human species, journal articles, clinical trials, randomized controlled trials, English as publication language, and subject age ≥65 years. The methodological quality of all eligible intervention studies was assessed using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale. We computed weighted average standardized mean differences of the intervention-induced adaptations in gait speed using a random-effects model and tested for overall and individual intervention effects relative to no-exercise controls. RESULTS: A total of 42 studies (mean PEDro score of 5.0 ± 1.2) were included in the analyses (2495 healthy old adults; age 74.2 years [64.4-82.7]; body mass 69.9 ± 4.9 kg, height 1.64 ± 0.05 m, body mass index 26.4 ± 1.9 kg/m(2), and gait speed 1.22 ± 0.18 m/s). The search identified only one power training study, therefore the subsequent analyses focused only on the effects of resistance, coordination, and multimodal training on gait speed. The three types of intervention improved gait speed in the three experimental groups combined (n = 1297) by 0.10 m/s (±0.12) or 8.4 % (±9.7), with a large effect size (ES) of 0.84. Resistance (24 studies; n = 613; 0.11 m/s; 9.3 %; ES: 0.84), coordination (eight studies, n = 198; 0.09 m/s; 7.6 %; ES: 0.76), and multimodal training (19 studies; n = 486; 0.09 m/s; 8.4 %, ES: 0.86) increased gait speed statistically and similarly. CONCLUSIONS: Commonly used exercise interventions can functionally and clinically increase habitual and fast gait speed and help slow the loss of gait speed or delay its onset.
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The late president of the Palestinian Authority, Yasser Arafat, died in November 2004 in Percy Hospital, one month after having experienced a sudden onset of symptoms that included severe nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and abdominal pain and which were followed by multiple organ failure. In spite of numerous investigations performed in France, the pathophysiological mechanisms at the origin of the symptoms could not be identified. In 2011, we found abnormal levels of polonium-210 ((210)Po) in some of Arafat's belongings that were worn during his final hospital stay and which were stained with biological fluids. This finding led to the exhumation of Arafat's remains in 2012. Significantly higher (up to 20 times) activities of (210)Po and lead-210 ((210)Pb) were found in the ribs, iliac crest and sternum specimens compared to reference samples from the literature (p-value <1%). In all specimens from the tomb, (210)Po activity was supported by a similar activity of (210)Pb. Biokinetic calculations demonstrated that a (210)Pb impurity, as identified in a commercial source of 3MBq of (210)Po, may be responsible for the activities measured in Arafat's belongings and remains 8 years after his death. The absence of myelosuppression and hair loss in Mr Arafat's case compared to Mr Litvinenko's, the only known case of malicious poisoning with (210)Po, could be explained by differences in the time delivery-scheme of intake. In conclusion, statistical Bayesian analysis combining all the evidence gathered in our forensic expert report moderately supports the proposition that Mr Arafat was poisoned by (210)Po.