Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialization of Northern-hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates significantly reduces assimilation error both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations, reducing the concentration error by a factor of four to six, and the thickness error by a factor of two. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that the strong dependence of thermodynamic ice growth on ice concentration necessitates an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that proportional mean-thickness updates are superior to the other two methods considered and enable us to assimilate sea ice in a global climate model using simple Newtonian relaxation.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions.

Are power calculations useful? A multicentre neuroimaging study

There are now many reports of imaging experiments with small cohorts of typical participants that precede large-scale, often multicentre studies of psychiatric and neurological disorders. Data from these calibration experiments are sufficient to make estimates of statistical power and predictions of sample size and minimum observable effect sizes. In this technical note, we suggest how previously reported voxel-based power calculations can support decision making in the design, execution and analysis of cross-sectional multicentre imaging studies. The choice of MRI acquisition sequence, distribution of recruitment across acquisition centres, and changes to the registration method applied during data analysis are considered as examples. The consequences of modification are explored in quantitative terms by assessing the impact on sample size for a fixed effect size and detectable effect size for a fixed sample size. The calibration experiment dataset used for illustration was a precursor to the now complete Medical Research Council Autism Imaging Multicentre Study (MRC-AIMS). Validation of the voxel-based power calculations is made by comparing the predicted values from the calibration experiment with those observed in MRC-AIMS. The effect of non-linear mappings during image registration to a standard stereotactic space on the prediction is explored with reference to the amount of local deformation. In summary, power calculations offer a validated, quantitative means of making informed choices on important factors that influence the outcome of studies that consume significant resources.

Improving mood with psychoanalytic and cognitive therapies (IMPACT): a pragmatic effectiveness superiority trial to investigate whether specialised psychological treatment reduces the risk for relapse in adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar depression: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Up to 70% of adolescents with moderate to severe unipolar major depression respond to psychological treatment plus Fluoxetine (20-50 mg) with symptom reduction and improved social function reported by 24 weeks after beginning treatment. Around 20% of non responders appear treatment resistant and 30% of responders relapse within 2 years. The specific efficacy of different psychological therapies and the moderators and mediators that influence risk for relapse are unclear. The cost-effectiveness and safety of psychological treatments remain poorly evaluated. Methods/Design Improving Mood with Psychoanalytic and Cognitive Therapies, the IMPACT Study, will determine whether Cognitive Behavioural Therapy or Short Term Psychoanalytic Therapy is superior in reducing relapse compared with Specialist Clinical Care. The study is a multicentre pragmatic effectiveness superiority randomised clinical trial: Cognitive Behavioural Therapy consists of 20 sessions over 30 weeks, Short Term Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy 30 sessions over 30 weeks and Specialist Clinical Care 12 sessions over 20 weeks. We will recruit 540 patients with 180 randomised to each arm. Patients will be reassessed at 6, 12, 36, 52 and 86 weeks. Methodological aspects of the study are systematic recruitment, explicit inclusion criteria, reliability checks of assessments with control for rater shift, research assessors independent of treatment team and blind to randomization, analysis by intention to treat, data management using remote data entry, measures of quality assurance, advanced statistical analysis, manualised treatment protocols, checks of adherence and competence of therapists and assessment of cost-effectiveness. We will also determine whether time to recovery and/or relapse are moderated by variations in brain structure and function and selected genetic and hormone biomarkers taken at entry. Discussion The objective of this clinical trial is to determine whether there are specific effects of specialist psychotherapy that reduce relapse in unipolar major depression in adolescents and thereby costs of treatment to society. We also anticipate being able to utilise psychotherapy experience, neuroimaging, genetic and hormone measures to reveal what techniques and their protocols may work best for which patients.

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers.

Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Magnesium-enriched hydroxyapatite at immediate implants: a histomorphometric study in dogs

Aim To evaluate the influence of magnesium-enriched hydroxyapatite (MHA) (SintLife (R)) on bone contour preservation and osseointegration at implants placed immediately into extraction sockets. Material and methods In the mandibular pre-molar region, implants were installed immediately into extraction sockets of six Labrador dogs. MHA was placed at test sites, while the control sites did not receive augmentation materials. Implants were intended to heal in a submerged mode. After 4 months of healing, the animals were sacrificed, and ground sections were obtained for histomorphometric evaluation. Results After 4 months of healing, one control implant was not integrated leaving n=5 test and control implants for evaluation. Both at the test and the control sites, bone resorption occurred. While the most coronal bone-to-implant contact was similar between test and control sites, the alveolar bony crest outline was maintained to a higher degree at the buccal aspect of the test sites (loss: 0.7 mm) compared with the control sites (loss: 1.2 mm), even though this difference did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions The use of MHA to fill the defect around implants placed into the alveolus immediately after tooth extraction did not contribute significantly to the maintenance of the contours of the buccal alveolar bone crest. To cite this article:Caneva M, Botticelli D, Stellini E, Souza SLS, Salata LA, Lang NP. Magnesium-enriched hydroxyapatite at immediate implants: a histomorphometric study in dogs.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 22, 2011; 512-517doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2010.02040.x.

A retrospective study of zygomatico-orbital complex and/or zygomatic arch fractures over a 71-month period

Background/Aim: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the epidemiology, treatment, and complications of zygomatico-orbital complex (ZOC) and/or zygomatic arch (ZA) fractures either associated with other facial fractures or not over a 71-month period. Material and methods: This survey was performed in three hospitals of Ribeirao Preto in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from August 2002 to July 2008. The records of 1575 patients with facial trauma were reviewed. There were 140 cases of ZOC and ZA fractures either associated with other facial fractures or not. Data regarding gender, age, race, addictions, day of trauma, etiology, signs and symptoms, oral hygiene condition, day of initial evaluation, hospital admission, day of surgery, surgery approach, pattern of fractures, treatment performed, post-operative antibiotic therapy, day of hospital discharge, and post-operative complications were collected. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical analyses. Results: The most frequent fractures affected Caucasian men and occurred during the fourth decade of life. The most frequent etiology was traffic accident, and symptoms and signs included pain and edema. Type I fractures were the main injury observed, and the treatment of choice was always rigid internal fixation. Post-operative antibiotic therapy was solely employed when there was an indication. Complications were observed in 13.1% of the cases. Conclusions: The treatment protocol yielded suitable post-operative results and also showed success rates comparable to published data around the world.

Efficacy of Microwaves and Chlorhexidine on the Disinfection of Pacifiers and Toothbrushes: An In Vitro Study

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate, in vitro, the contamination of toothbrushes and pacifiers by Streptococcus mutans, and the efficacy of microwave and chlorhexidine for their disinfection. Methods: Sixty pacifiers and 60 toothbrushes were contaminated with S mutans and then divided into groups according to the disinfection protocol: Group 1-chlorhexidine solution; Group 2-microwave sterilization; and Group 3-sterile tap water. The devices were evaluated microbiologically as to the formation of S mutans colonies/biofilms and were examined by scanning electron microscopy. The results were submitted for statistical analysis by Friedman`s test at a 5% significance level. Results: The results of both types of evaluation showed a large number of S mutans colonies/biofilms after spraying with sterile tap water, and chlorhexidine spraying and microwaving were effective in eliminate colonies/biofilms. Groups 1 and 2 were statistically similar to each other (P>.05) and differed significantly from Group 3 (P<.05). Conclusions: The 0.12% chlorhexidine solution spray and 7 minutes of microwave irradiation were effective for disinfection of pacifiers and toothbrushes. (Pediatr Dent 2011;33:10-3) Received July 29, 2009 I Last Revision January 26, 2010 I Accepted March 10, 2010

The Effects of Different Loading Times on the Bone Response Around Dental Implants: A Histomorphometric Study in Dogs

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate, through histomorphometric analysis, the effect that different loading times would have on the bone response around implants. Materials and Methods: Three Replace Select implants were placed on each side of the mandible in eight dogs (n = 48 implants). One pair of implants was selected for an immediate loading protocol (IL). After 7 days, the second pair of implants received prostheses for an early loading protocol (EL). Fourteen days after implant placement, the third pair of implants received prostheses for advanced early loading (AEL). Following 12 weeks of prosthetics, counted following the positioning of the metallic crowns for the AEL group, the animals were sacrificed and the specimens were prepared for histomorphometric analysis. The differences between loading time in the following parameters were evaluated through analysis of variance: bone-to-implant contact, bone density, and crestal bone loss. Results: The mean percentage of bone-to-implant contact for IL was 77.9% +/- 1.71%, for EL it was 79.25% +/- 2.11%, and for AEL it was 79.42% +/- 1.49%. The mean percentage of bone density for IL was 69.97% +/- 3.81%, for EL it was 69.23% +/- 5.68%, and for AEL it was 69.19% +/- 2.90%. Mean crestal bone loss was 1.57 +/- 0.22 mm for IL, 1.23 +/- 0.19 mm for EL, and 1.17 +/- 0.32 mm for AEL. There was no statistical difference for any of the parameters evaluated (P > .05). Conclusion: Different early loading times did not seem to significantly affect the bone response around dental implants. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2010;25:473-481

Effects of Early Functional Loading on Maintenance of Free Autogenous Bone Graft and Implant Osseointegration: An Experimental Study in Dogs

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to investigate the healing, integration, and maintenance of autogenous onlay bone grafts and implant osseointegration either loaded in the early or the delayed stages. Materials and Methods: A total of 5 male clogs received bilateral blocks of onlay bone grafts harvested from the contralateral alveolar ridge of the mandible. On one side, the bone block was secured by 3 dental implants (3.5 mm x 13.0 mm, Osseospeed; Astra Tech AB, Molndal, Sweden). Two implants at the extremities of the graft were loaded 2 clays after installation by abutment connection and prosthesis (simultaneous implant placement group); the implant in the middle remained unloaded and served as the control. On the other side, the block was fixed with 2 fixation screws inserted in the extremities of the graft. Four weeks later, the fixation screws were replaced with 3 dental implants. The loading procedure (delayed implant placement group) was performed 2 clays later, as described for the simultaneous implant placement sites. The animals were sacrificed 12 weeks after the grafting procedure. Implant stability was measured through resonance frequency analysis. The bone volume and density were assessed on computed tomography. The bone to implant contact and bone area in a region of interest were evaluated on histologic slides. Results: The implant stability quotient showed statistical significance in favor of the delayed loaded grafts (P=.001). The bone-to-implant contact (P=.008) and bone area in a region of interest (P=0.005) were significantly greater in the delayed group. Nevertheless, no difference was found in terms of graft volume and density between the early loaded and delayed-loaded approaches. Conclusions: The protocol in which the implant and bone graft were given delayed loading allows for effective quality of implant osseointegration and stabilization, with healing and remodeling occurring in areas near the implant resulting in denser bone architecture. (C) 2010 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Sing 68:825-832, 2010

A multilevel model for the study of breastfeeding determinants in Brazil

The benefits of breastfeeding for the children`s health have been highlighted in many studies. The innovative aspect of the present study lies in its use of a multilevel model, a technique that has rarely been applied to studies on breastfeeding. The data reported were collected from a larger study, the Family Budget Survey-Pesquisa de Orcamentos Familiares, carried out between 2002 and 2003 in Brazil that involved a sample of 48 470 households. A representative national sample of 1477 infants aged 0-6 months was used. The statistical analysis was performed using a multilevel model, with two levels grouped by region. In Brazil, breastfeeding prevalence was 58%. The factors that bore a negative influence on breastfeeding were over four residents living in the same household [odds ratio (OR) = 0.68, 90% confidence interval (CI) = 0.51-0.89] and mothers aged 30 years or more (OR = 0.68, 90% CI = 0.53-0.89). The factors that positively influenced breastfeeding were the following: higher socio-economic levels (OR = 1.37, 90% CI = 1.01-1.88), families with over two infants under 5 years (OR = 1.25, 90% CI = 1.00-1.58) and being a resident in rural areas (OR = 1.25, 90% CI = 1.00-1.58). Although majority of the mothers was aware of the value of maternal milk and breastfed their babies, the prevalence of breastfeeding remains lower than the rate advised by the World Health Organization, and the number of residents living in the same household along with mothers aged 30 years or older were both factors associated with early cessation of infant breastfeeding before 6 months.

Performance of the Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire Used in the Brazilian Center of the Prospective Study Natural History of Human Papillomavirus Infection in Men: The HIM Study

The Natural History of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection in Men: The HIM Study is a prospective multi-center cohort study that, among other factors, analyzes participants` diet. A parallel cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of the quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) used in the Brazilian center from the HIM Study. For this, a convenience subsample of 98 men aged 18 to 70 years from the HIM Study in Brazil answered three 54-item QFFQ and three 24-hour recall interviews, with 6-month intervals between them (data collection January to September 2007). A Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the difference between instruments was dependent on the magnitude of the intake for energy and most nutrients included in the validity analysis, with the exception of carbohydrates, fiber, polyunsaturated fat, vitamin C, and vitamin E. The correlation between the QFFQ and the 24-hour recall for the deattenuated and energy-adjusted data ranged from 0.05 (total fat) to 0.57 (calcium). For the energy and nutrients consumption included in the validity analysis, 33.5% of participants on average were correctly classified into quartiles, and the average value of 0.26 for weighted kappa shows a reasonable agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficients for all nutrients were greater than 0.40 in the reproducibility analysis. The QFFQ demonstrated good reproducibility and acceptable validity. The results support the use of this instrument in the HIM Study. J Am Diet Assoc. 2011;111:1045-1051.

Underreporting of Energy Intake in Brazilian Women Varies According to Dietary Assessment: A Cross-Sectional Study Using Doubly Labeled Water

Objective Underreporting of energy intake is prevalent in food surveys, but there is controversy about which dietary assessment method provides greater underreporting rates. Our objective is to compare validity of self-reported energy intake obtained by three dietary assessment methods with total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained by doubly labeled water (DLW) among Brazilian women. Design We used a cross-sectional study. Subjects/setting Sixty-five females aged 18 to 57 years (28 normal-weight, 10 over-weight, and 27 obese) were recruited from two universities to participate. Main outcome measures TEE determined by DLW, energy intake estimated by three 24-hour recalls, 3-day food record, and a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Statistical analyses performed Regression and analysis of variance with repeated measures compared TEE and energy intake values, and energy intake-to-TEE ratios and energy intake-TEE values between dietary assessment methods. Bland and Altman plots were provided for each method. chi(2) test compared proportion of underreporters between the methods. Results Mean TEE was 2,622 kcal (standard deviation [SD] =490 kcal), while mean energy intake was 2,078 kcal (SD=430 kcal) for the diet recalls; 2,044 kcal (SD=479 kcal) for the food record and 1,984 kcal (SD=832 kcal) for the FFQ (all energy intake values significantly differed from TEE; P<0.0001). Bland and Altman plots indicated great dispersion, negative mean differences between measurements, and wide limits of agreement. Obese subjects underreported more than normal-weight subjects in the diet recalls and in the food records, but not in the FFQ. Years of education, income and ethnicity were associated with reporting accuracy. Conclusions The FFQ produced greater under- and overestimation of energy intake. Underreporting of energy intake is a serious and prevalent error in dietary self-reports provided by Brazilian women, as has been described in studies conducted in developed countries.

Cross-entropy optimizer: a new tool to study precession in astrophysical jets

Evidence of jet precession in many galactic and extragalactic sources has been reported in the literature. Much of this evidence is based on studies of the kinematics of the jet knots, which depends on the correct identification of the components to determine their respective proper motions and position angles on the plane of the sky. Identification problems related to fitting procedures, as well as observations poorly sampled in time, may influence the follow-up of the components in time, which consequently might contribute to a misinterpretation of the data. In order to deal with these limitations, we introduce a very powerful statistical tool to analyse jet precession: the cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization. Only based on the raw data of the jet components (right ascension and declination offsets from the core), the cross-entropy method searches for the precession model parameters that better represent the data. In this work we present a large number of tests to validate this technique, using synthetic precessing jets built from a given set of precession parameters. With the aim of recovering these parameters, we applied the cross-entropy method to our precession model, varying exhaustively the quantities associated with the method. Our results have shown that even in the most challenging tests, the cross-entropy method was able to find the correct parameters within a 1 per cent level. Even for a non-precessing jet, our optimization method could point out successfully the lack of precession.