The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Spin equilibrium and outflows in young stellar objects

We present N-body simulations of accretion discs about young stellar objects (YSOs). The simulation includes the presence of a magnetic loop structure on the central star which interacts with the particles by means of a magnetic drag force. We find that an equilibrium spin rate is achieved when the corotation radius coincides with the edge of the loop. This spin rate is consistent with observed values for TTauri stars, being an order of magnitude less than the breakup value. The material ejected from the system by the rotating loop has properties consistent with the observed molecular outflows, given the presence of a suitable containing cavity.

Generation of a buoyancy-driven coastal current by an Antarctic Polynya

Descent and spreading of high salinity water generated by salt rejection during sea ice formation in an Antarctic coastal polynya is studied using a hydrostatic, primitive equation three-dimensional ocean model called the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling System (POLCOMS). The shape of the polynya is assumed to be a rectangle 100 km long and 30 km wide, and the salinity flux into the polynya at its surface is constant. The model has been run at high horizontal spatial resolution (500 m), and numerical simulations reveal a buoyancy-driven coastal current. The coastal current is a robust feature and appears in a range of simulations designed to investigate the influence of a sloping bottom, variable bottom drag, variable vertical turbulent diffusivities, higher salinity flux, and an offshore position of the polynya. It is shown that bottom drag is the main factor determining the current width. This coastal current has not been produced with other numerical models of polynyas, which may be because these models were run at coarser resolutions. The coastal current becomes unstable upstream of its front when the polynya is adjacent to the coast. When the polynya is situated offshore, an unstable current is produced from its outset owing to the capture of cyclonic eddies. The effect of a coastal protrusion and a canyon on the current motion is investigated. In particular, due to the convex shape of the coastal protrusion, the current sheds a dipolar eddy.

Optimization of a sea ice model using basinwide observations of Arctic sea ice thickness, extent, and velocity

A stand-alone sea ice model is tuned and validated using satellite-derived, basinwide observations of sea ice thickness, extent, and velocity from the years 1993 to 2001. This is the first time that basin-scale measurements of sea ice thickness have been used for this purpose. The model is based on the CICE sea ice model code developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, with some minor modifications, and forcing consists of 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (POLES) data. Three parameters are varied in the tuning process: Ca, the air–ice drag coefficient; P*, the ice strength parameter; and α, the broadband albedo of cold bare ice, with the aim being to determine the subset of this three-dimensional parameter space that gives the best simultaneous agreement with observations with this forcing set. It is found that observations of sea ice extent and velocity alone are not sufficient to unambiguously tune the model, and that sea ice thickness measurements are necessary to locate a unique subset of parameter space in which simultaneous agreement is achieved with all three observational datasets.

First results from a 3-dimensional middle atmosphere model

Initial results are presented from a middle atmosphere extension to a version of the European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting tropospheric model. The extended version of the model has been developed as part of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project and extends from the ground to approximately 90 km. A comprehensive solar radiation scheme is included which uses monthly averaged climatological ozone values. A linearised infrared cooling scheme is employed. The basic climatology of the model is described; the parametrization of drag due to orographically forced gravity waves is shown to have a dramatic effect on the simulations of the winter hemisphere.

Reversible state transition in nanoconfined aqueous solutions

Using molecular dynamics simulations, we find a reversible transition between the dispersion and aggregation states of solute molecules in aqueous solutions confined in nanoscale geometry, which is not observed in macroscopic systems. The nanoscale confinement also leads to a significant increase of the critical aggregation concentration (CAC). A theoretical model based on Gibbs free energy calculation is developed to describe the simulation results. It indicates that the reversible state transition is attributed to the low free energy barrier (of order kBT) in between two energy minima corresponding to the dispersion and aggregation states, and the enhancement of the CAC results from the fact that at lower concentrations the number of solute molecules is not large enough to allow the formation of a stable cluster in the confined systems.

The gravity wave momentum flux in hydrostatic flow with directional shear over elliptical mountains

Semi-analytical expressions for the momentum flux associated with orographic internal gravity waves, and closed analytical expressions for its divergence, are derived for inviscid, stationary, hydrostatic, directionally-sheared flow over mountains with an elliptical horizontal cross-section. These calculations, obtained using linear theory conjugated with a third-order WKB approximation, are valid for relatively slowly-varying, but otherwise generic wind profiles, and given in a form that is straightforward to implement in drag parametrization schemes. When normalized by the surface drag in the absence of shear, a quantity that is calculated routinely in existing drag parametrizations, the momentum flux becomes independent of the detailed shape of the orography. Unlike linear theory in the Ri → ∞ limit, the present calculations account for shear-induced amplification or reduction of the surface drag, and partial absorption of the wave momentum flux at critical levels. Profiles of the normalized momentum fluxes obtained using this model and a linear numerical model without the WKB approximation are evaluated and compared for two idealized wind profiles with directional shear, for different Richardson numbers (Ri). Agreement is found to be excellent for the first wind profile (where one of the wind components varies linearly) down to Ri = 0.5, while not so satisfactory, but still showing a large improvement relative to the Ri → ∞ limit, for the second wind profile (where the wind turns with height at a constant rate keeping a constant magnitude). These results are complementary, in the Ri > O(1) parameter range, to Broad’s generalization of the Eliassen–Palm theorem to 3D flow. They should contribute to improve drag parametrizations used in global weather and climate prediction models.

PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

Compensation between resolved wave driving and parameterized orographic gravity wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change

Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

Solution calorimetry as a tool for investigating drug interaction with intestinal fluid

Solution calorimetry offers a reproducible technique for measuring the enthalpy of solution (ΔsolH) of a solute dissolving into a solvent. The ΔsolH of two solutes, propranolol HCl and mannitol were determined in simulated intestinal fluid (SIF) solutions designed to model the fed and fasted states within the gut, and in Hanks’ balanced salt solution (HBSS) of varying pH. The bile salt and lipid within the SIF solutions formed mixed micelles. Both solutes exhibited endothermic reactions in all solvents. The ΔsolH for propranolol HCl in the SIF solutions differed from those in the HBSS and was lower in the fed state than the fasted state SIF solution, revealing an interaction between propranolol and the micellar phase in both SIF solutions. In contrast, for mannitol the ΔsolH was constant in all solutions indicating minimal interaction between mannitol and the micellar phases of the SIF solutions. In this study, solution calorimetry proved to be a simple method for measuring the enthalpy associated with the dissolution of model drugs in complex biological media such as SIF solutions. In addition, the derived power–time curves allowed the time taken for the powdered solutes to form solutions to be estimated.

Thermospheric Control of the Auroral Source of O+Ions for the Magnetosphere

Linear theory, model ion-density profiles and MSIS neutral thermospheric predictions are used to investigate the stability of the auroral, topside ionosphere to oxygen cyclotron waves: variations of the critical height, above which the plasma is unstable, with field-aligned current, thermal ion density and exospheric temperature are considered. In addition, probabilities are assessed that interactions with neutral atomic gases prevent O+ ions from escaping into the magnetosphere after they have been transversely accelerated by these waves. The two studies are combined to give a rough estimate of the total O+ escape flux as a function of the field-aligned current density for an assumed rise in the perpendicular ion temperature. Charge exchange with neutral oxygen, not hydrogen, is shown to be the principle limitation to the escape of O+ ions, which occurs when the waves are driven unstable down to low altitudes. It is found that the largest observed field-aligned current densities can heat a maximum of about 5×1014 O+ ions m−2 to a threshold above which they are subsequently able to escape into the magnetosphere in the following 500s. Averaged over this period, this would constitute a flux of 1012 m−2 s−1 and in steady-state the peak outflow would then be limited to about 1013 m−2 s−1 by frictional drag on thermal O+ at lower altitudes. Maximum escape is at low plasma density unless the O+ scale height is very large. The outflow decreases with decreasing field-aligned current density and, to a lesser extent, with increasing exospheric temperature. Upward flowing ion events are evaluated as a source of O+ ions for the magnetosphere and as an explanation of the observed solar cycle variation of ring current O+ abundance.

Field-aligned plasma flow in the quiet, mid-latitude ionosphere deduced from topside soundings

A method for quantifying diffusive flows of O+ ions in the topside ionosphere from satellite soundings is described. A departure from diffusive equilibrium alters the shape of the plasma scale-height profile near the F2-peak where ion-neutral frictional drag is large. The effect enables the evaluation of , the field-aligned flux of O+ ions relative to the neutral oxygen atom gas, using MSIS model values for the neutral thermospheric densities and temperature. Upward flow values are accurate to within about 10%, the largest sources of error being the MSIS prediction for the concentration of oxygen atoms and the plasma temperature gradient deduced from the sounding. Downward flux values are only determined to within 20%. From 60,000 topside soundings, taken at the minimum and rising phase of the solar cycle, a total of 1098 mean scale-height profiles are identified for which no storm sudden commencement had occurred in the previous 12 days and for which Kp was less than 2o, each mean profile being an average of about six soundings. A statistical study ofdeduced from these profiles shows the diurnal cycle of O+ flow in the quiet, topside ionosphere at mid-latitudes and its seasonal variations. The differences betweenand ion flux observations from incoherent scatter radars are considered using the meridional thermospheric winds predicted by a global, three-dimensional model. The mean interhemispheric flow from summer to winter is compared with predictions by a numerical model of the protonospheric coupling of conjugate ionospheres for up to 6 days following a geomagnetic storm. The observed mean (of order 3 × 1016 ions day−1 along a flux tube of area 1 m2 at 1000 km) is larger than predicted for day 6 and the suggested explanation is a decrease in upward flows from the winter, daytime ionosphere between the sixth and twelfth days.

Departures from diffusive equilibrium in the topside F-layer from satellite soundings

A method for the detection of O+ ion fluxes from topside soundings is described. The shape of the plasma scale-height profile is altered by such flows only at heights near the F2-peak, where ion-neutral drag is large. Model profiles are used to relate changes in scale height to the ratio (φ/φL) where φ is the field-aligned O+ flux (relative to the neutral air) and φL is the limiting value set by frictional drag. Values of (φ/φL) can then be determined to within a few per cent from experimental soundings, using the plasma temperature and its gradient (as deduced from the observed profile) and the MSIS model neutral temperature. It was found that 3700 topside profiles show departures from diffusive equilibrium, out of 10,000 used to obtain the global morphology of (φ/φL) near the sunspot minimum. Results reveal dynamic ion-flow effects such as the transequatorial breeze and the effects of the polar wind and protonospheric replenishment light-ion flows can be inferred.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Arabinose and protocatechuate catabolism genes are important for growth of Rhizobium leguminosarum biovar viciae in the pea rhizosphere

Background and aims: To form nitrogen-fixing nodules on pea roots, Rhizobium leguminosarum biovar viciae must be competitive in the rhizosphere. Our aim was to identify genes important for rhizosphere fitness. Methods: Signature-tagged mutants were screened using microarrays to identify mutants reduced for growth in pea rhizospheres. Candidate mutants were assessed relative to controls for growth in minimal medium, growth in pea rhizospheres and for infection of peas in mixed inoculants. Mutated genes were identified by DNA sequencing and confirmed by transduction. Results: Of 5508 signature-tagged mutants, microarrays implicated 50 as having decreased rhizosphere fitness. Growth tests identified six mutants with rhizosphere-specific phenotypes. The mutation in one of the genes (araE) was in an arabinose catabolism operon and blocked growth on arabinose. The mutation in another gene (pcaM), encoding a predicted solute binding protein for protocatechuate and hydroxybenzoate uptake, decreased growth on protocatechuate. Both mutants were decreased for nodule infection competitiveness with mixed inoculants, but nodulated peas normally when inoculated alone. Other mutants with similar phenotypes had mutations predicted to affect secondary metabolism. Conclusions: Catabolism of arabinose and protocatechuate in the pea rhizosphere is important for competitiveness of R.l. viciae. Other genes predicted to be involved in secondary metabolism are also important.