Application of the BRAFO-tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on natural foods

There is evidence that consumption of fish, especially oily fish, has substantial beneficial effects on health. In particular an inverse relationship of oily fish intake to coronary heart disease incidence has been established. These beneficial effects are ascribed to fish oil components including long chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. On the other hand it should be noted that oily fish also contains hazardous substances such as dioxins, PCBs and methylmercury. Soy consumption has been associated with potential beneficial and adverse effects. The claimed benefits include reduced risk of cardiovascular disease; osteoporosis, breast and prostate cancer whereas potential adverse effects include impaired thyroid function, disruption of sex hormone levels, changes in reproductive function and increased breast cancer risk The two cases of natural foods highlight the need to consider both risks and benefits in order to establish the net health impact associated to the consumption of specific food products. Within the Sixth Framework programme of the European Commission, the BRAFO project was funded to develop a framework that allows for the quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits in relation to foods and food compounds. This paper describes the application of the developed framework to two natural foods, farmed salmon and soy protein. We conclude that the BRAFO methodology is highly applicable to natural foods. It will help the benefit-risk managers in selecting the appropriate dietary recommendations for the population.

The Glu298Asp single nucleotide polymorphism in the endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene differentially effects the vascular response to acute consumption of fruit and vegetable puree-based drinks

Scope Diets low in fruits and vegetables (FV) are responsible for 2.7 million deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and certain cancers annually. Many FV and their juices contain flavonoids, some of which increase endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) activity. A single nucleotide polymorphism in the eNOS gene, where thymine (T) replaces guanine (G) at position 894 predicting substitution of glutamate for aspartate at codon 298 (Glu298Asp), has been associated with increased CVD risk due to effects on nitric oxide synthesis and subsequently vascular reactivity. Individuals can be homozygous for guanine (GG), thymine (TT) or heterozygous (GT). Methods and results We investigated the effects of acute ingestion of a FV-puree-based-drink (FVPD) on vasodilation and antioxidant status in subjects retrospectively genotyped for this polymorphism. Healthy volunteers (n = 24; 11 GG, 11 GT, 2 TT) aged 30–70 were recruited to a randomized, controlled, crossover, acute study. We showed that acute consumption of 400 mL FVPD differentially affected individuals depending on their genotype. There was a significant genotype interaction for endothelium-dependent vasodilation measured by laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis (P < 0.05) and ex vivo low-density lipoproteins (LDL) oxidation (P = 0.002). GG subjects had increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation 180 min (P = 0.028) and reduced ex vivo LDL oxidation (P = 0.013) after 60 min after FVPD compared with control, no differences were observed in GT subjects. Conclusion eNOS Glu298Asp genotype differentially affects vasodilation and ex vivo LDL oxidation after consumption of FV in the form of a puree-based drink.

Effects of chronic consumption of fruit and vegetable puree-based drinks on vasodilation, plasma oxidative stability and antioxidant status

Background: Fruit and vegetable-rich diets are associated with a reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This protective effect may be a result of the phytochemicals present within fruits and vegetables (F&V). However, there can be considerable variation in the content of phytochemical composition of whole F&V depending on growing location, cultivar, season and agricultural practices, etc. Therefore, the present study investigated the effects of consuming fruits and vegetables as puree-based drinks (FVPD) daily on vasodilation, phytochemical bioavailability, antioxidant status and other CVD risk factors. FVPD was chosen to provide a standardised source of F&V material that could be delivered from the same batch to all subjects during each treatment arm of the study. Methods: Thirty-nine subjects completed the randomised, controlled, cross-over dietary intervention. Subjects were randomised to consume 200 mL of FVPD (or fruit-flavoured control), daily for 6 weeks with an 8-week washout period between treatments. Dietary intake was measured using two 5-day diet records during each cross-over arm of the study. Blood and urine samples were collected before and after each intervention and vasodilation assessed in 19 subjects using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis. Results: FVPD significantly increased dietary vitamin C and carotenoids (P < 0.001), and concomitantly increased plasma α- and β-carotene (P < 0.001) with a near-significant increase in endothelium-dependent vasodilation (P = 0.060). Conclusions: Overall, the findings obtained in the present study showed that FVPD were a useful vehicle to increase fruit and vegetable intake, significantly increasing dietary and plasma phytochemical concentrations with a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation.

The impact of substituting SFA in dairy products with MUFA or PUFA on CVD risk: evidence from human intervention studies

With the substantial economic and social burden of CVD, the need to modify diet and lifestyle factors to reduce risk has become increasingly important. Milk and dairy products, being one of the main contributors to SFA intake in the UK, are a potential target for dietary SFA reduction. Supplementation of the dairy cow's diet with a source of MUFA or PUFA may have beneficial effects on consumers' CVD risk by partially replacing milk SFA, thus reducing entry of SFA into the food chain. A total of nine chronic human intervention studies have used dairy products, modified through bovine feeding, to establish their effect on CVD risk markers. Of these studies, the majority utilised modified butter as their primary test product and used changes in blood cholesterol concentrations as their main risk marker. Of the eight studies that measured blood cholesterol, four reported a significant reduction in total and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) following chronic consumption of modified milk and dairy products. Data from one study suggested that a significant reduction in LDL-C could be achieved in both the healthy and hypercholesterolaemic population. Thus, evidence from these studies suggests that consumption of milk and dairy products with modified fatty acid composition, compared with milk and dairy products of typical milk fat composition, may be beneficial to CVD risk in healthy and hypercholesterolaemic individuals. However, current evidence is insufficient and further work is needed to investigate the complex role of milk and cheese in CVD risk and explore the use of novel markers of CVD risk.

Effects of acute consumption of a fruit and vegetable puree-based drink on vasodilation and oxidative status

Epidemiological studies indicate that diets rich in fruits and vegetables (F&V) are protective against cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Pureed F&V products retain many beneficial components, including flavonoids, carotenoids, vitamin C and dietary fibres. This study aimed to establish the physiological effects of acute ingestion of F&V puree-based drink (FVPD) on vasodilation, antioxidant status, phytochemical bioavailability and other CVD risk factors. 24 Subjects, aged 30-70 years, completed the randomised, single-blind, controlled, crossover test meal study. Subjects consumed 400 ml FVPD, or fruit-flavoured sugar-matched control, after following a low-flavonoid diet for 5 days. Blood and urine samples were collected throughout the study day and vascular reactivity was assessed at 90-minute intervals using laser Doppler iontophoresis (LDI). FVPD significantly increased plasma vitamin C (P=0.002) and total nitrate/nitrite (P=0.001) concentrations. There was a near significant time by treatment effect on ex vivo LDL oxidation (P=0.068), with a longer lag phase after consuming FVPD. During the 6 hours after juice consumption the antioxidant capacity of plasma increased significantly (P=0.003) and there was a simultaneous increase in plasma and urinary phenolic metabolites (P<0.05). There were significantly lower glucose and insulin peaks after ingestion of FVPD compared with control (P=0.019 and P=0.003) and a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation following FVPD consumption (P=0.061). Overall, FVPD consumption significantly increased plasma vitamin C and total nitrate/nitrite concentrations, with a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation. Pureed F&V products are useful vehicles for increasing micronutrient status, plasma antioxidant capacity and in vivo NO generation, which may contribute to CVD risk reduction.

Forecasting extinction risk of ectotherms under climate warming: an evolutionary perspective

1. It has been postulated that climate warming may pose the greatest threat species in the tropics, where ectotherms have evolved more thermal specialist physiologies. Although species could rapidly respond to environmental change through adaptation, little is known about the potential for thermal adaptation, especially in tropical species. 2. In the light of the limited empirical evidence available and predictions from mutation-selection theory, we might expect tropical ectotherms to have limited genetic variance to enable adaptation. However, as a consequence of thermodynamic constraints, we might expect this disadvantage to be at least partially offset by a fitness advantage, that is, the ‘hotter-is-better’ hypothesis. 3. Using an established quantitative genetics model and metabolic scaling relationships, we integrate the consequences of the opposing forces of thermal specialization and thermodynamic constraints on adaptive potential by evaluating extinction risk under climate warming. We conclude that the potential advantage of a higher maximal development rate can in theory more than offset the potential disadvantage of lower genetic variance associated with a thermal specialist strategy. 4. Quantitative estimates of extinction risk are fundamentally very sensitive to estimates of generation time and genetic variance. However, our qualitative conclusion that the relative risk of extinction is likely to be lower for tropical species than for temperate species is robust to assumptions regarding the effects of effective population size, mutation rate and birth rate per capita. 5. With a view to improving ecological forecasts, we use this modelling framework to review the sensitivity of our predictions to the model’s underpinning theoretical assumptions and the empirical basis of macroecological patterns that suggest thermal specialization and fitness increase towards the tropics. We conclude by suggesting priority areas for further empirical research.

Environmental oestrogens and breast cancer: long-term low-dose effects of mixtures of various chemical combinations

The incidence of breast cancer has risen worldwide to unprecedented levels in recent decades, making it now the major cancer of women in many parts of the world.1 Although diet, alcohol, radiation and inherited loss of BRCA1/2 genes have all been associated with increased incidence, the main identified risk factors are life exposure to hormones including physiological variations associated with puberty/pregnancy/menopause,1 personal choice of use of hormonal contraceptives2 and/or hormone replacement therapy.3–6 On this basis, exposure of the human breast to the many environmental pollutant chemicals capable of mimicking or interfering with oestrogen action7 should also be of concern.8 Hundreds of such environmental chemicals have now been measured in human breast tissue from a range of dietary and domestic exposure sources7 ,9 including persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs),10 polybrominated diphenylethers and polybromobiphenyls,11 polychlorinated biphenyls,12 dioxins,13 alkyl phenols,14 bisphenol-A and chlorinated derivatives,15 as well as other less lipophilic compounds such as parabens (alkyl esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid),16 but studies investigating any association between raised levels of such compounds and the development of breast cancer remain inconclusive.7–16 However, the functionality of these chemicals has continued to be assessed on the basis of individual chemicals rather than the environmental reality of long-term low-dose exposure to complex mixtures. This misses the potential for individuals to have high concentrations of different compounds but with a common mechanism of action. It also misses the complex interactions between chemicals and physiological hormones which together may act to alter the internal homeostasis of the oestrogenic environment of mammary tissue.

Concentrations of free amino acids and sugars in nine potato varieties: effects of storage and relationship with acrylamide formation

Acrylamide forms during cooking and processing predominately from the reaction of free asparagine and reducing sugars in the Maillard reaction. The identification of low free asparagine and reducing sugar varieties of crops is therefore an important target. In this study, nine varieties of potato (French fry varieties Maris Piper (from two suppliers), Pentland Dell, King Edward, Daisy, and Markies; and chipping varieties Lady Claire, Lady Rosetta, Saturna, and Hermes) grown in the United Kingdom in 2009 were analyzed at monthly intervals through storage from November 2009 to July 2010. Acrylamide formation was measured in heated flour and chips fried in oil. Analysis of variance revealed significant interactions between varieties nested within type (French fry and chipping) and storage time for most free amino acids, glucose, fructose, and acrylamide formation. Acrylamide formed in chips correlated significantly with acrylamide formed in flour and with chip color. There were significant correlations between glucose or total reducing sugar concentration and acrylamide formation in both variety types, but with fructose the correlation was much stronger for chipping than for French fry varieties. Conversely, there were significant correlations with acrylamide formation for both total free amino acid and free asparagine concentration in the French fry but not chipping varieties. The study showed the potential of variety selection for preventing unacceptable levels of acrylamide formation in potato products and the variety-dependent effect of long-term storage on acrylamide risk. It also highlighted the complex relationship between precursor concentration and acrylamide risk in potatoes.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

Gender differences in ultimatum games: despite rather than due to risk attitudes

We analyze experimental data obtained from an ultimatum game framed as a situation of employee-employer negotiation over salaries. Parallel to this, we elicit subjects' risk attitudes. In the existing literature, it has often been conjectured that gender differences in strategic environments are partly due to differences in risky decision making. Our evidence suggests that both gender and risk-related effects co-exist in ultimatum bargaining. However, differences in risk attitudes cannot explain gender effects in ultimatum bargaining.

The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects’ average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an “economic anomaly” emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; Kühberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

The effects of dietary nitrate on blood pressure and endothelial function: a review of human intervention studies.

Evidence has accumulated in recent years that suggests that nitrate from the diet, particularly vegetables, is capable of producing bioactive NO in the vasculature, following bioconversion to nitrite by oral bacteria. The aim of the present review was to consider the current body of evidence for potential beneficial effects of dietary nitrate on blood pressure and endothelial function, with emphasis on evidence from acute and chronic human intervention studies. The studies to date suggest that dietary nitrate acutely lowers blood pressure in healthy humans. An inverse relationship was seen between dose of nitrate consumed and corresponding systolic blood pressure reduction, with doses of nitrate as low as 3 mmol of nitrate reducing systolic blood pressure by 3 mmHg. Moreover, the current studies provide some promising evidence on the beneficial effects of dietary nitrate on endothelial function. In vitro studies suggest a number of potential mechanisms by which dietary nitrate and its sequential reduction to NO may reduce blood pressure and improve endothelial function, such as: acting as a substrate for endothelial NO synthase; increasing vasodilation; inhibiting mitochondrial reactive oxygen species production and platelet aggregation. In conclusion, the evidence for beneficial effects of dietary nitrate on blood pressure and endothelial function is promising. Further long-term randomised controlled human intervention studies assessing the potential effects of dietary nitrate on blood pressure and endothelial function are needed, particularly in individuals with hypertension and at risk of CVD.

Seasonality in Southeast Asian stock markets: some new evidence on day-of-the-week effects

This paper examines the evidence for a day-of-the-week effect in five Southeast Asian stock markets: South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand. Findings indicate significant seasonality for three of the five markets. Market risk, proxied by the return on the FTA World Price Index, is not sufficient to explain this calendar anomaly. Although an extension of the risk-return equation to incorporate interactive seasonal dummy variables can explain some significant day-of-the-week effects, market risk alone appears insufficient to characterize this phenomenon.

Postpartum GAD is a risk factor for postpartum MDD: the course and longitudinal relationships of postpartum GAD and MDD

Background The objective was to examine the course and longitudinal associations of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in mothers over the postpartum 2 years. Method Using a prospective naturalistic design, 296 mothers recruited from a large community pool were assessed for GAD and MDD at 3, 6, 10, 14, and 24 months postpartum. Structured clinical interviews were used for diagnoses, and symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine diagnostic stability and longitudinal relations, and latent variable modeling was employed to examine change in symptoms. Results MDD without co-occurring GAD, GAD without co-occurring MDD, and co-occurring GAD and MDD, displayed significant stability during the postpartum period. Whereas MDD did not predict subsequent GAD, GAD predicted subsequent MDD (in the form of GAD + MDD). Those with GAD + MDD at 3 months postpartum were significantly less likely to be diagnosis free during the follow-up period than those in other diagnostic categories. At the symptom level, symptoms of GAD were more trait-like than those of depression. Conclusions Postpartum GAD and MDD are relatively stable conditions, and GAD is a risk factor for MDD but not vice versa. Given the tendency of MDD and GAD to be persistent, especially when comorbid, and the increased risk for MDD in mothers with GAD, as well as the potential negative effects of cumulative exposure to maternal depression and anxiety on child development, the present findings clearly highlight the need for screening and treatment of GAD in addition to MDD during the postpartum period.