Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

On high interest rates in Brazil

This article examines the question of why interest rates are so high in Brazil as compared to the international average. It looks at theoretical arguments based on excessive government deficits, structural lack of private savings, inflation bias, excessive investment demand and fear of floating. An informal look at the evidence does not strongly corroborate any of these arguments. Hence a wise central bank should consider "testing" the market to make sure it is not dealing with an extreme equilibrium configuration or a long standing disequilibrium.

The use of relaxation therapy as an adjunct to traditional psoriasis therapy /

This research investigated the impact of stress management and relaxation techniques on psoriasis. It had a dual purpose to see if stress management and relaxation techniques, as an adjunct to traditional medical treatment, would improve the skin condition of psoriasis. In addition it attempted to provide psoriasis patients with a sense of control over their illness by educating them about the connection between mind and body through learning stress management and relaxation techniques. The former purpose was addressed quantitatively, while the latter was addressed qualitatively. Using an experimental design, the quantitative study tested the efficacy of stress management and relaxation techniques on 38 dermatological patients from St. John's, Newfoundland. The study which lasted ten weeks, suggested a weak relationship between psoriasis and stress. These relationships were not statistically significant. The qualitative data were gathered through unstructured interviews and descriptive/interpretative analysis was used to evaluate them. Patients in the experimental group believed in the mind body connection as it related to their illness and stress. The findings also showed that the patients believed that the stress reduction and relaxation techniques improved their quality of life, their level of psoriasis, and their ability to live with the condition. Based on the contradictory nature of the findings, further research is needed. It is posited that replication of this study would be vastly improved by increasing the sample size to increase the possibility of significant findings. As wel~ increasing the length of time for the experiment would control for the possibility of a lag effect. Finally, the study looked at linear relationships between stress and psoriasis. Further study should ascertain whether the relationship might be nonlinear

Feeding rates, parental investment, and brood reduction in Caspian terns (Sterna caspia)

Fresh egg-weights and feeding rates to chicks were related to chick survival as one means of quantifying apportionment of parental investment wi thin broods of Caspian Terns (SterDI casRla) at a colony in Georgian Bay. Lake Huron, during 1978 and 1979. Ftrst-laid eggs from 2-egg clutches were Significantly heavier and usually hatched one to three days earlier than second-laid eggs in both years of the study. In both years, first-hatched chicks were larger and generally better fed than second-hatched siblings. The disparity between feedIng rates of first- and second-hatched ehicks was greater in 1979. Brood feeding I rates correlated positively with the percentage of food fed to the least-fed sibUng through the period of B-chick ages zero to 10 days in 1978. I suggest that after this age period, parental control over whlcb cbick was fed diminished. In 1978, 10 of 16 secondhatched chicks were fed more than their older siblings during their first 5 days. 'lb.is is interpreted as a parental response to reduce the competitive advantage of the larger first-hatched chicks. Most chick losses were apparently caused by starvation or preda. tion. In 1979, seeorvl-hatched chick disappearance (due to predation) was -related to low feeding rates, whereas first-hatched chick disappearance was related to low fresh egg-weights.. First-hatched chicks survived better than second-hatched chicks both years, and more pairs fledged two chicks in 1978. Maximum estimated feeding rates at the nest and fledging ages suggested that food was more avatlable in 1978 than in 1979. In 1979, second eggs apparently functioned as "insurance" eggs. When the first-laid egg falled to hatch, or the first-hatched chick died, the second-hatched chick was often successfully fledged. When first-hatched chicks survived, the second-hatched chick usually starved or was preyed upon, reducing the brood to one chick. Parental investment patterns favored first-hatched chicks. Brood reduction, when employed, discouraged total nest failure, however, under appropriate conditions, brood reduction was avoided and full broods (or two chicks) were fledged.

A29 NMR spin-lattice relaxation study of paramagnetics -doped orthosilictes

A ~si MAS NMR study of spin-lattice relaxation behaviour in paramagnetic-doped crystalline silicates was undertaken, using synthetic magnesium orthosilicate (forsterite) and synthetic zinc orthosilicate (willemite) doped with 0.1% to 20% of Co(II), Ni(II), or CU(II), as experimental systems. All of the samples studied exhibited a longitudinal magnetization return to the Boltzmann distribution of nuclear spin states which followed a stretched-exponential function of time: Y=exp [- (tjTn) n], Orelaxation time and paramagnetic dopant ion concentration, with Tni[M2+]i=Tnj[M2+]j for a given dopant and mineral. There are many cases where this correlation is not apparent, however, and this is attributed to the structural, phase, and ion distribution complexities inherent in many of these systems.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Effect of Naltrexone on Relaxation Induced by Flank Pressure in Pigs

The study injected ten pigs with Naltrexone and ten pigs a saline injection to study the effects on relaxation. In the end, the study discovered that "treatment had no effect on the final degree of relaxation", but "pressure on the sides of a pig's body in a comfortable padded apparatus will induce pigs to relax".

Clipping about county rates paid in the village of Thorold

Clipping about county rates paid in the village of Thorold, June 18, 1867

Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy

In an economy where cash can be stored costlessly (in nominal terms), the nominal interest rate is bounded below by zero. This paper derives the implications of this nonnegativity constraint for the term structure and shows that it induces a nonlinear and convex relation between short- and long-term interest rates. As a result, the long-term rate responds asymmetrically to changes in the short-term rate, and by less than predicted by a benchmark linear model. In particular, a decrease in the short-term rate leads to a decrease in the long-term rate that is smaller in magnitude than the increase in the long-term rate associated with an increase in the short-term rate of the same size. Up to the extent that monetary policy acts by affecting long-term rates through the term structure, its power is considerably reduced at low interest rates. The empirical predictions of the model are examined using data from Japan.

A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates.

Understanding the dynamics of interest rates and the term structure has important implications for issues as diverse as real economic activity, monetary policy, pricing of interest rate derivative securities and public debt financing. Our paper follows a longstanding tradition of using factor models of interest rates but proposes a semi-parametric procedure to model interest rates.

Étude de la fonction vasculaire et du remodelage cardiaque avant l’établissement de l’obésité et de la dyslipidémie chez les rats femelles Sprague-Dawley recevant une diète riche en gras

Des lacunes existent au niveau des connaissances concernant les modifications cardiovasculaires manifestées avant l’établissement d’obésité et en absence d’hyperlipidémie. Dans cette optique, la présente étude a testé l'hypothèse générale qui stipule que l’administration d’une diète riche en gras pour une période de 8 semaines chez les rats femelles influence négativement la fonction et le remodelage cardiaque, avant le développement de l’obésité et en absence d’hyperlipidémie et d’hyperglycémie. Afin de répondre à cette problématique, des rats femelles Sprague-Dawley ont été assignés à une diète standard (SD; 12,5% lipides, kcal) ou riche en gras (HF; 42% lipides, kcal) pour une période de 8 semaines. Cette durée était insuffisante pour induire le développement d’une dyslipidémie ou une augmentation significative de la masse corporelle chez les animaux HF(329±14g) comparativement aux rates SD (300±10g). Toutefois, une hypertension artérielle s’est développée chez les rates HF (130±4 vs 108±6 mmHg, p<0,05), accompagnée d’une altération des relaxations aortiques dépendantes de l’endothélium (relaxation maximale : 22±5% versus 53±8%, pour les animaux HF et SD respectivement, p<0,05). L’administration orale chronique de l’antioxydant resvératrol (RES; 20 mg·kg-1·jr-1) a prévenu le développement de ces altérations pathologiques, attestant d’une implication du stress oxydant. Au niveau cardiaque, le RES n’a toutefois pas inhibé le développement de fibrose périvasculaire secondaire à l’administration de la diète riche en gras. Suite à une insulte d’ischémie-reperfusion, la taille (SD : 0,29±0,09 versus HF : 0,32±0,13 cm), l’épaisseur (SD : 0,05±0,02 versus HF : 0,06±0,01 cm) et le contenu en collagène α1 type 1 (SD : 0,21±0,04 versus HF : 0,20±0,04 unités arbitraires/mm2) de la cicatrice du coeur infarci des rats HF étaient comparables au coeur infarci des rats SD. Malgré ces similitudes, le taux de décès était significativement (p<0,05) plus élevé chez les rats HF (56%) comparativement aux rats SD (5%). L’approche par électrophysiologie a démontré que l’administration de la diète riche en gras était associée à une augmentation (p<0,05) du nombre d’extrasystoles ventriculaires induites. Cette élévation de l’incidence était associé à une hyperinnervation sympathique fonctionnelle, tel que démontré par une élévation (p<0,05) de la densité des fibres neurofilament-M (HF : 2830±250 versus SD : 2020±260 μm2/mm2) et de la protéine de l’hydroxylase de la tyrosine. La fonctionnalité des jonctions intercellulaires était également atteinte, caractérisée par une latéralisation et internalisation de connexine 43 ainsi qu’une diminution de l’expression de connexine 40 au niveau des disques intercalaires. Ainsi, avant l’établissement de l’obésité et d’une dyslipidémie, les rats femelles modestement hypertendus présentent un phénotype arythmogénique cardiaque en partie dû à une hyperinnervation sympathique et une expression altérée concomitante de la distribution et de l’expression des jonctions intercellulaires. L’absence de symptômes cliniques d’obésité dans la présente étude ne fournit aucun indice au clinicien quant à la susceptibilité accrue aux arythmies ventriculaires. Ainsi, en présence d’une hypertension artérielle modérée chez un patient non-obèse, une mesure de l’activité sympathique par la quantification des niveaux circulants de catécholamines pourrait être bénéfique afin de détecter les patients à risque de mort subite.