2016 already puts its mark on the economic map of Europe. CEPS Essay No. 22/8 January 2016

The start of 2016 brought highly symbolic changes to the trade policy map of Europe between the EU- and Russian-led blocs, as the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine entered into force provisionally, while Russia moved in precisely the opposite direction by scrapping its free trade agreement with Ukraine. However the ongoing changes go far wider and deeper. The energy sector and major industries see disengagement between Ukraine and Russia, and Russia’s share in Ukrainian trade is falling substantially. New transport corridors with China may offer synergies with trade opportunities for all three DCFTA states, with Georgia first in line. Visa liberalisation for the entire DCFTA space is now firmly in prospect. Divergent macroeconomic trends between a recovering eurozone and recession in Russia will accentuate the changes in trade structures. A better organisation of the pan-European economic space is surely desirable, but prospects for links between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union remain problematic.

How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2016/07 MARCH 2016

Pro-cyclical fiscal tightening might be one reason for the anaemic economic recovery in Europe, raising questions about the effectiveness of the EU’s fiscal framework in achieving its two main objectives: public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. • In theory, the current EU fiscal rules, with cyclically adjusted targets, flexibility clauses and the option to enter an excessive deficit procedure, allow for large-scale fiscal stabilisation during a recession. However, implementation of the rules is hindered by the badly-measured structural balance indicator and incorrect forecasts, leading to erroneous policy recommendations. The large number of flexibility clauses makes the system opaque. • The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives, more transparent, easier to implement and which have a higher potential to be complied with. • The best option, re-designing the fiscal framework from scratch, is currently unrealistic. Therefore we propose to eliminate the structural balance rules and to introduce a new public expenditure rule with debt-correction feedback, embodied in a multi-annual framework, which would also support the central bank’s inflation target. A European Fiscal Council could oversee the system.

Economic impact of Southern European member states exiting the eurozone. Policy Brief #2012/06

While Greece defaulting on its sovereign debt and leaving the European Monetary Union would in and of itself have a relatively minor effect on the world economy, such a move could, however, undermine investor confidence in the Portuguese, Spanish and Italian capital markets and thus provoke not only a sovereign default in those states as well, but also a severe worldwide recession. This would in turn reduce economic growth by a total of 17.2 trillion euros in the world’s 42 largest economies in the lead-up to 2020. Hence it is incumbent upon the community of nations to prevent Greece from a sovereign default as well as leaving the euro, and the domino effect that this event could induce.

The Portuguese Economic Crisis: Policies and Outcomes. Bertelsmann Policy Brief, 19.02.2015

The financial and economic crisis in the aftermath of 2008 is unique for several reasons: its depth, its speed and its global entanglement. Simultaneous economic decline in many economies around the globe sent out political shockwaves. In Europe, the crisis served as a wake-up call. Policymakers responded to the social and political insecurity triggered by economically unsound practices with solidarity and with EU-scepticism. The recession confronted Euro zone countries with a number of similar problems, although each was embedded in its own set of country-specific challenges. The tools with which each began to counteract the financial and sovereign debt crisis differed. This policy brief examines the Portuguese path to recovery. It outlines some of the great recession���s main impacts on the country’s labour market, as well as analyses the path it has taken to restore sustainable jobs.

European Union Bailouts and Credibility. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 15 No. 4, October 2015

Since the Great Recession started, there have been eight bailouts to EU Member States, which approximate cost to the EU has been of around 380 billion euros. The aim of this paper is to analyze the legal-constitutional issues that this major bailing out operation has brought about. The conclusion is that the EU was not only ill-prepared from an economic perspective to make bailouts; it was also ill-prepared from a constitutional perspective as well, above all if one understands law, as this paper does, as a credibility device. Absent further reforms and clarifications, the current EU system of bailout governance may be prone to generate important credibility problems in the future.

Crisis Coming Home? Firm Performance During the Economic Crisis and Managers‘ Work-Family Conflict

The economic crisis over the past years has challenged managers in many ways. In our longitudinal study during the global recession, we examine how perceived firm performance interacts with sources of supervisor support and stress to affect managers’ work-family conflict. First, we draw from Conservation of Resources theory to analyze how sources of supervisor support and stress relate to managers’ work-family conflict. Second, we explore how perceived firm performance modifies the relationships between these factors and work-family conflict. Our surveys of 182 managers before and during the crisis reveal that perceived firm performance significantly alters the effectiveness of sources of supervisor support in relieving work-family conflict. Additionally, perceived poor firm performance was found to intensify the negative effect of stressors on work-family conflict. Our results highlight the need to consider an organization’s perceived health when studying managers’ attitudes and career outcomes.

Les coalitions politiques et l'orientation du changement économique et politique aux États-Unis : la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession comparées.

Ce mémoire s’intéresse au concept de crise, économique et politique, comme source de changement idéologique et politique. Au travers de l’étude de l’austérité économique, il sera possible d’identifier des différences majeures entre deux épisodes de troubles économiques importants, la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession. Alors que la Grande Dépression est caractérisée par une double crise, économique et politique, la Grande Récession, elle, demeure un choc essentiellement économique. L’absence de contagion dans le système politique explique la ténacité d’une idée comme l’austérité, de retour depuis la révolution néolibérale des années 80. L’austérité économique s’est adaptée et s’aligne maintenant aux intérêts d’une frange importante de la coalition démocrate. La persistance de l’allure des coalitions politiques depuis le dernier grand réalignement témoigne de l’absence de transformation majeure du mode d’action étatique, ce qui constitue une différence importante entre les deux crises.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

(Table 2) Radiocarbon ages of lake sediments from Boresø, East Greenland

This chapter provides a review of proxy data from a variety of natural archives sampled in the Wollaston Forland region, central Northeast Greenland. The data are used to describe long-term environmental and climatic changes. The focus is on reconstructing the Holocene conditions particularly in the Zackenberg area. In addition, this chapter provides an overview of the archaeological evidence for prehistoric occupation of the region. The Zackenberg area has been covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet several times during the Quaternary. At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 22,000 years BP), temperatures were much lower than at present, and only very hardy organisms may have survived in the region, even if ice-free areas existed. Marked warming at around 11,700 years BP led to ice recession, and the Zackenberg area was deglaciated in the early Holocene, prior to 10,100 years BP. Rapid early Holocene land emergence was replaced by a slight transgression in the late Holocene. During the Holocene, summer solar insolation decreased in the north. Following deglaciation of the region, summer temperatures probably peaked in the early to mid-Holocene, as indicated by the occurrence of a southern beetle species. However, the timing for the onset of the Holocene thermal maximum is rather poorly constrained because of delayed immigration of key plant species. During the thermal maximum, the mean July temperature was at least 2-3°C higher than at present. Evidence for declining summer temperatures is seen at around 5500, 4500 and 3500 years BP. The cooling culminated during the Little Ice Age that peaked about 100-200 years ago. The first plants that immigrated to the region were herbs and mosses. The first dwarf shrubs arrived in Northeast Greenland prior to 10,400 years BP, and dwarf birch arrived around 8800 years BP. The first people arrived about 4500 years BP, but the region was depopulated several times before the last people disappeared some time after 1823 AD, perhaps as a consequence of poor hunting conditions during the peak of the Little Ice Age.

Three horizontal muscle squint surgery for large angle infantile esotropia

Background: To report the long-term outcome of a series of 49 patients who underwent three horizontal muscle squint surgery for large angle infantile esotropia. Methods: The patient records were retrospectively reviewed of 49 (24 girls [49%], 25 boys) consecutive patients with infantile esotropia of angle greater than or equal to60 Delta, who had undergone three horizontal muscle surgery performed by one surgeon (author GG). Surgery consisted of bilateral medial rectus recession combined with graded unilateral lateral rectus resection. Surgeries were carried out over a 6-year period with a mean follow-up period of 32.9 months (3.7-71.8 months). Results: Using Kaplan-Meier life-table analysis, cumulative surgical success (orthotropia +/-10 Delta) was 93.9% at 1 week, 91.8% at 2 and 6 months, 87.7% at 12 and 18 months, 79.9% at 2 years, 77.1% at 3, 4 and 5 years, and 70.6% at 6 years. The mean preoperative deviation was 68.7 Delta. The mean age at surgery was 12.9 months. The failure rate was independent of preoperative deviation. Prevalence of residual esotropia (>10 Delta) varied from 2.0% at 1 week to 17.0% at 6 years. Similarly the prevalence of consecutive exotropia (>10 Delta) varied from 4.0% at 1 week to 12.4% at 6 years. Conclusion: Operating in a graded fashion on three horizontal muscles in children with large angle infantile esotropia has a high success rate, even over long-term follow up. Based on the study's results, amounts of surgery for a given angle of strabismus are proposed.

The surgical management of consecutive exotropia

Purpose: To review the results and techniques of surgical treatment of consecutive exotropia. Methods: We performed a retrospective chart review of all patients who underwent surgery for consecutive exotropia in a pediatric ophthalmology practice between 1992 and 2001. Patients were excluded if follow-up lasted < 6 weeks or if exotropia was caused by other ocular disorders such as previous trauma or congenital cataracts. Results: Fifty-nine patients were identified. The procedure performed in the majority of cases was unilateral lateral rectus recession and medial rectus advancement to the original insertion. Seven patients underwent bilateral lateral rectus recession, and 6 underwent lateral rectus recession combined with medial rectus resection. The mean interval between original surgery and surgery for consecutive exotropia was 14.1 years (range 4 months to 47.5 years). The mean preoperative distance exodeviation was 31.7 prism diopters (PD). Satisfactory alignment lie, within 10 PD of orthophoria) was achieved in 36 patients (61%) at week 1 and 42 patients (71%) at final follow-up. Mean follow up was 16.0 months. Thirty-nine patients (66%) demonstrated an exodrift after surgery (mean 7.6 PD). Conclusion: Consecutive exotropia may occur many years, even decades, after esotropia surgery. Lateral rectus recession with advancement of the previously recessed medial rectus is an effective treatment. An exotropic drift occurs after consecutive exotropia surgery, usually within the first 6 weeks. A suitable ocular alignment immediately after surgery for consecutive exotropia is a small-angle esotropia of 5 to 10 PD.

Regional-scale, fully coupled modelling of stream-aquifer interaction in a tropical catchment

The planning and management of water resources in the Pioneer Valley, north-eastern Australia requires a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream abstractions on water supply reliabilities and environmental flows in Sandy Creek (the main surface water system studied). Consequently, a fully coupled stream-aquifer model has been constructed using the code MODHMS, calibrated to near-stream observations of watertable behaviour and multiple components of gauged stream flow. This model has been tested using other methods of estimation, including stream depletion analysis and radon isotope tracer sampling. The coarseness of spatial discretisation, which is required for practical reasons of computational efficiency, limits the model's capacity to simulate small-scale processes (e.g., near-stream groundwater pumping, bank storage effects), and alternative approaches are required to complement the model's range of applicability. Model predictions of groundwater influx to Sandy Creek are compared with baseflow estimates from three different hydrograph separation techniques, which were found to be unable to reflect the dynamics of Sandy Creek stream-aquifer interactions. The model was also used to infer changes in the water balance of the system caused by historical land use change. This led to constraints on the recharge distribution which can be implemented to improve model calibration performance. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PLANEJAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO: UM ESTUDO EXPLORATÓRIO SOBRE SUAS ETAPAS E UTILIZAÇÃO NAS MICRO, PEQUENAS E MÉDIAS EMPRESAS TRANSPORTADORAS DE CARGAS RODOVIÁRIAS DO GRANDE ABC

Através de uma pesquisa de 1990 até 2004, a (JUCESP) - Junta Comercial do Estado de São Paulo - registrou mais de 2,1 milhões de novas empresas e encerrou o registro de 1,3 milhões. Isso significa extinção de aproximadamente 281 mil empregos diretos e a retirada da economia de 15,6 bilhões de reais de faturamento e capital investidos. As pequenas e médias empresas são fundamentais para absorção dos impactos causados pela volatilidade da economia, na mesma proporção que vulneráveis a essas oscilações. Devido sua importância econômica, a qual é verificada através dos números apresentados pelos órgãos responsáveis pela divulgação do controle e índices econômicos, como o (IBGE) - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - (BNDES) Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social, (SEBRAE) Serviço Brasileiro de Apoio às Micro e Pequenas Empresas e Ministérios do Trabalho e do Desenvolvimento Social, esse trabalho tem como proposta verificar se no desenvolvimento de seus processos gerenciais, as transportadoras de cargas do Grande ABC, contemplam o planejamento estratégico e quais as etapas mais utilizadas. Para coleta de dados foram enviados 150 questionários direcionados aos executivos e proprietários das transportadoras de cargas do ABC. Foram respondidos através de e-mails 14 questionários. Como o número de respondentes era muito pequeno, foram realizados alguns contatos diretamente com os proprietários, visando o agendamento de entrevistas.