976 resultados para project delay estimation


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Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) is a communication architecture enabling connectivity in a topology with unregular end-to-end network connection. DTN enables communication in environments with cross-connectivity, large delays and delivery time variations, and a high error rate. DTN can be used in vehicular networks where public transport get involved. This research aims to analyze the role of public transit as a DTN routing infrastructure. The impact of using public transit as a relay router is investigated by referencing the network performance, defined by its delivery ratio, average delay and overhead. The results show that public transit can be used as a backbone for DTN in an urban scenario using existing protocols. This opens insights for future researches on routing algorithm and protocol design.

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Companies from the motorcycles components branch are dealing with a dynamic environment, resulting from the introduction of new products and the increase of market demand. This dynamic environment requires frequent changes in production lines and requires flexibility in the processes, which can cause reductions in the level of quality and productivity. This paper presents a Lean Six Sigma improvement project performed in a production line of the company's machining sector, in order to eliminate losses that cause low productivity, affecting the fulfillment of the production plan and customer satisfaction. The use of Lean methodology following the DMAIC stages allowed analyzing the factors that influence the line productivity loss. The major problems and causes that contribute to a reduction on productivity and that were identified in this study are the lack of standardization in the setup activities and the excessive stoppages for adjustment of the processes that caused an increase of defects. Control charts, Pareto analysis and cause-and-effect diagrams were used to analyze the problem. On the improvement stage, the changes were based on the reconfiguration of the line layout as well as the modernization of the process. Overall, the project justified an investment in new equipment, the defective product units were reduced by 84% and an increase of 29% of line capacity was noticed.

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Many texture measures have been developed and used for improving land-cover classification accuracy, but rarely has research examined the role of textures in improving the performance of aboveground biomass estimations. The relationship between texture and biomass is poorly understood. This paper used Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to explore relationships between TM image textures and aboveground biomass in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon. Eight grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) based texture measures (i.e., mean, variance, homogeneity, contrast, dissimilarity, entropy, second moment, and correlation), associated with seven different window sizes (5x5, 7x7, 9x9, 11x11, 15x15, 19x19, and 25x25), and five TM bands (TM 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7) were analyzed. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to analyze texture and biomass relationships. This research indicates that most textures are weakly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but some textures are significantly correlated with mature forest biomass. In contrast, TM spectral signatures are significantly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but weakly correlated with mature forest biomass. Our findings imply that textures may be critical in improving mature forest biomass estimation, but relatively less important for successional vegetation biomass estimation.

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The behaviour of masonry elements under in-plane and out-of-plane loads can be improved through the application of strengthening systems based on reinforcing overlays. After strengthening, the transition region between the original substrate and the strengthening layer is especially stressed, and premature failure of the strengthened masonry is reached if insufficient interfacial capacity is assured. Therefore, the assessment of the mechanical behaviour of the interface is critical to the development of the masonry strengthening system based on the application of strengthening overlays. In this research a method for the characterization of the interface behaviour between two different materials, a polypropylene fibre reinforced mortar (PFRM) and a ceramic brick used for masonry construction is presented. Direct shear tests were carried out in couplet specimens. Due to the orthotropic nature of the bricks surface, the shear load was applied along three different directions in order to perform an overall estimation of the interface behaviour. The peak and residual shear stresses, as well as the failure modes, were obtained at different levels of the normal stress. Based on these experimental results constitutive laws were assessed for the simulation of the interface mechanical behaviour based on the Mohr and Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria.

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In an underwater environment it is difficult to implement solutions for wireless communications. The existing technologies using electromagnetic waves or lasers are not very efficient due to the large attenuation in the aquatic environment. Ultrasound reveals a lower attenuation, and thus has been used in underwater long-distance communications. The much slower speed of acoustic propagation in water (about 1500 m/s) compared with that of electromagnetic and optical waves, is another limiting factor for efficient communication and networking. For high data-rates and real-time applications it is necessary to use frequencies in the MHz range, allowing communication distances of hundreds of meters with a delay of milliseconds. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to develop ultrasound transducers able to work at high frequencies and wideband, with suitable responses to digital modulations. This work shows how the acoustic impedance influences the performance of an ultrasonic emitter transducer when digital modulations are used and operating at frequencies between 100 kHz and 1 MHz. The study includes a Finite Element Method (FEM) and a MATLAB/Simulink simulation with an experimental validation to evaluate two types of piezoelectric materials: one based on ceramics (high acoustic impedance) with a resonance design and the other based in polymer (low acoustic impedance) designed to optimize the performance when digital modulations are used. The transducers performance for Binary Amplitude Shift Keying (BASK), On-Off Keying (OOK), Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) and Binary Frequency Shift Keying (BFSK) modulations with a 1 MHz carrier at 125 kbps baud rate are compared.

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This paper deals with the problem of estimation maintenance costs for the case of the pitch controls system of wind farms turbines. Previous investigations have estimated these costs as (traditional) “crisp” values, simply ignoring the uncertainty nature of data and information available. This paper purposes an extended version of the estimation model by making use of the Fuzzy Set Theory. The results alert decision-makers to consequent uncertainty of the estimations along with their overall level, thus improving the information given to the mainte-nance support system.

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The International Energy Agency established an Implementing Agreement within the Energy in Buildings and Communities Program to undertake research and provide an international focus on Cost Effective Energy and Carbon Emissions Optimization in Building Renovation (EBC Annex 56). The project aims at developing a new methodology to enable cost effective renovation of existing buildings while optimizing energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction. Gathering of case studies is one of the activities undertaken to reach the overall project. Of the case studies a selection of â Shining Examplesâ is made to encourage decision makers to promote efficient and cost effective renovations. This paper presents the results of the analyses made on the Shining Examples.

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Risk management is an important component of project management. Nevertheless, such process begins with risk assessment and evaluation. In this research project, a detailed analysis of the methodologies used to treat risks in investment projects adopted by the Banco da Amazonia S.A. was made. Investment projects submitted to the FNO (Constitutional Fund for Financing the North) during 2011 and 2012 were considered for that purpose. It was found that the evaluators of this credit institution use multiple indicators for risk assessment which assume a central role in terms of decision-making and contribute for the approval or the rejection of the submitted projects; namely, the proven ability to pay, the financial records of project promotors, several financial restrictions, level of equity, level of financial indebtedness, evidence of the existence of a consumer market, the proven experience of the partners/owners in the business, environmental aspects, etc. Furthermore, the bank has technological systems to support the risk assessment process, an internal communication system and a unique system for the management of operational risk.

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Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

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The Electromagnetism-like (EM) algorithm is a population- based stochastic global optimization algorithm that uses an attraction- repulsion mechanism to move sample points towards the optimal. In this paper, an implementation of the EM algorithm in the Matlab en- vironment as a useful function for practitioners and for those who want to experiment a new global optimization solver is proposed. A set of benchmark problems are solved in order to evaluate the performance of the implemented method when compared with other stochastic methods available in the Matlab environment. The results con rm that our imple- mentation is a competitive alternative both in term of numerical results and performance. Finally, a case study based on a parameter estimation problem of a biology system shows that the EM implementation could be applied with promising results in the control optimization area.

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The authors propose a mathematical model to minimize the project total cost where there are multiple resources constrained by maximum availability. They assume the resources as renewable and the activities can use any subset of resources requiring any quantity from a limited real interval. The stochastic nature is inferred by means of a stochastic work content defined per resource within an activity and following a known distribution and the total cost is the sum of the resource allocation cost with the tardiness cost or earliness bonus in case the project finishes after or before the due date, respectively. The model was computationally implemented relying upon an interchange of two global optimization metaheuristics – the electromagnetism-like mechanism and the evolutionary strategies. Two experiments were conducted testing the implementation to projects with single and multiple resources, and with or without maximum availability constraints. The set of collected results shows good behavior in general and provide a tool to further assist project manager decision making in the planning phase.

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Increasing the maturity in Project Management (PM) has become a goal for many organizations, leading them to adopt maturity models to assess the current state of its PM practices and compare them with the best practices in the industry where the organization is inserted. One of the main PM maturity models is the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3®), developed by the Project Management Institute. This paper presents the Information Systems and Technologies organizations outcome analysis, of the assesses made by the OPM3® Portugal Project, identifying the PM processes that are “best” implemented in this particular industry and those in which it is urgent to improve. Additionally, a comparison between the different organizations’ size analyzed is presented.

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The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

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In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

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Optimization with stochastic algorithms has become a relevant research field. Due to its stochastic nature, its assessment is not straightforward and involves integrating accuracy and precision. Performance profiles for the mean do not show the trade-off between accuracy and precision, and parametric stochastic profiles require strong distributional assumptions and are limited to the mean performance for a large number of runs. In this work, bootstrap performance profiles are used to compare stochastic algorithms for different statistics. This technique allows the estimation of the sampling distribution of almost any statistic even with small samples. Multiple comparison profiles are presented for more than two algorithms. The advantages and drawbacks of each assessment methodology are discussed.