927 resultados para parametric uncertainty


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Lo scopo di questa dissertazione è di identificare le tecnologie più appropriate per la creazione di editor parametrici per documenti strutturati e di descrivere LIME, un editor di markup parametrico e indipendente dal linguaggio. La recente evoluzione delle tecnologie XML ha portato ad un utilizzo sempre più consistente di documenti strutturati. Oggigiorno, questi vengono utilizzati sia per scopi tipografici sia per l’interscambio di dati nella rete internet. Per questa ragione, sempre più persone hanno a che fare con documenti XML nel lavoro quotidiano. Alcuni dialetti XML, tuttavia, non sono semplici da comprendere e da utilizzare e, per questo motivo, si rendono necessari editor XML che possano guidare gli autori di documenti XML durante tutto il processo di markup. In alcuni contesti, specialmente in quello dell’informatica giuridica, sono stati introdotti i markup editor, software WYSIWYG che assistono l’utente nella creazione di documenti corretti. Questi editor possono essere utilizzati anche da persone che non conoscono a fondo XML ma, d’altra parte, sono solitamente basati su uno specifico linguaggio XML. Questo significa che sono necessarie molte risorse, in termini di programmazione, per poterli adattare ad altri linguaggi XML o ad altri contesti. Basando l’architettura degli editor di markup su parametri, è possibile progettare e sviluppare software che non dipendono da uno specifico linguaggio XML e che possono essere personalizzati al fine di utilizzarli in svariati contesti.

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Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

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In this thesis we address a collection of Network Design problems which are strongly motivated by applications from Telecommunications, Logistics and Bioinformatics. In most cases we justify the need of taking into account uncertainty in some of the problem parameters, and different Robust optimization models are used to hedge against it. Mixed integer linear programming formulations along with sophisticated algorithmic frameworks are designed, implemented and rigorously assessed for the majority of the studied problems. The obtained results yield the following observations: (i) relevant real problems can be effectively represented as (discrete) optimization problems within the framework of network design; (ii) uncertainty can be appropriately incorporated into the decision process if a suitable robust optimization model is considered; (iii) optimal, or nearly optimal, solutions can be obtained for large instances if a tailored algorithm, that exploits the structure of the problem, is designed; (iv) a systematic and rigorous experimental analysis allows to understand both, the characteristics of the obtained (robust) solutions and the behavior of the proposed algorithm.

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Wir betrachten Systeme von endlich vielen Partikeln, wobei die Partikel sich unabhängig voneinander gemäß eindimensionaler Diffusionen [dX_t = b(X_t),dt + sigma(X_t),dW_t] bewegen. Die Partikel sterben mit positionsabhängigen Raten und hinterlassen eine zufällige Anzahl an Nachkommen, die sich gemäß eines Übergangskerns im Raum verteilen. Zudem immigrieren neue Partikel mit einer konstanten Rate. Ein Prozess mit diesen Eigenschaften wird Verzweigungsprozess mit Immigration genannt. Beobachten wir einen solchen Prozess zu diskreten Zeitpunkten, so ist zunächst nicht offensichtlich, welche diskret beobachteten Punkte zu welchem Pfad gehören. Daher entwickeln wir einen Algorithmus, um den zugrundeliegenden Pfad zu rekonstruieren. Mit Hilfe dieses Algorithmus konstruieren wir einen nichtparametrischen Schätzer für den quadrierten Diffusionskoeffizienten $sigma^2(cdot),$ wobei die Konstruktion im Wesentlichen auf dem Auffüllen eines klassischen Regressionsschemas beruht. Wir beweisen Konsistenz und einen zentralen Grenzwertsatz.

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Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine.

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Solid-state shear pulverization (SSSP) is a unique processing technique for mechanochemical modification of polymers, compatibilization of polymer blends, and exfoliation and dispersion of fillers in polymer nanocomposites. A systematic parametric study of the SSSP technique is conducted to elucidate the detailed mechanism of the process and establish the basis for a range of current and future operation scenarios. Using neat, single component polypropylene (PP) as the model material, we varied machine type, screw design, and feed rate to achieve a range of shear and compression applied to the material, which can be quantified through specific energy input (Ep). As a universal processing variable, Ep reflects the level of chain scission occurring in the material, which correlates well to the extent of the physical property changes of the processed PP. Additionally, we compared the operating cost estimates of SSSP and conventional twin screw extrusion to determine the practical viability of SSSP.

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Solid-state shear pulverization (SSSP) is a unique processing technique for mechanochemical modification of polymers, compatibilization of polymer blends, and exfoliation and dispersion of fillers in polymer nanocomposites. A systematic parametric study of the SSSP technique is conducted to elucidate the detailed mechanism of the process and establish the basis for a range of current and future operation scenarios. Using neat, single component polypropylene (PP) as the model material, we varied machine type, screw design, and feed rate to achieve a range of shear and compression applied to the material, which can be quantified through specific energy input (Ep). As a universal processing variable, Ep reflects the level of chain scission occurring in the material, which correlates well to the extent of the physical property changes of the processed PP. Additionally, we compared the operating cost estimates of SSSP and conventional twin screw extrusion to determine the practical viability of SSSP.

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To check the effectiveness of campaigns preventing drug abuse or indicating local effects of efforts against drug trafficking, it is beneficial to know consumed amounts of substances in a high spatial and temporal resolution. The analysis of drugs of abuse in wastewater (WW) has the potential to provide this information. In this study, the reliability of WW drug consumption estimates is assessed and a novel method presented to calculate the total uncertainty in observed WW cocaine (COC) and benzoylecgonine (BE) loads. Specifically, uncertainties resulting from discharge measurements, chemical analysis and the applied sampling scheme were addressed and three approaches presented. These consist of (i) a generic model-based procedure to investigate the influence of the sampling scheme on the uncertainty of observed or expected drug loads, (ii) a comparative analysis of two analytical methods (high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry), including an extended cross-validation by influent profiling over several days, and (iii) monitoring COC and BE concentrations in WW of the largest Swiss sewage treatment plants. In addition, the COC and BE loads observed in the sewage treatment plant of the city of Berne were used to back-calculate the COC consumption. The estimated mean daily consumed amount was 107 ± 21 g of pure COC, corresponding to 321 g of street-grade COC.

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We present a new approach for corpus-based speech enhancement that significantly improves over a method published by Xiao and Nickel in 2010. Corpus-based enhancement systems do not merely filter an incoming noisy signal, but resynthesize its speech content via an inventory of pre-recorded clean signals. The goal of the procedure is to perceptually improve the sound of speech signals in background noise. The proposed new method modifies Xiao's method in four significant ways. Firstly, it employs a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) instead of a vector quantizer in the phoneme recognition front-end. Secondly, the state decoding of the recognition stage is supported with an uncertainty modeling technique. With the GMM and the uncertainty modeling it is possible to eliminate the need for noise dependent system training. Thirdly, the post-processing of the original method via sinusoidal modeling is replaced with a powerful cepstral smoothing operation. And lastly, due to the improvements of these modifications, it is possible to extend the operational bandwidth of the procedure from 4 kHz to 8 kHz. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated across different noise types and different signal-to-noise ratios. The new method was able to significantly outperform traditional methods, including the one by Xiao and Nickel, in terms of PESQ scores and other objective quality measures. Results of subjective CMOS tests over a smaller set of test samples support our claims.

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To assess, compare and correlate quantitative T2 and T2* relaxation time measurements of intervertebral discs (IVDs) in patients suffering from low back pain, with respect to the IVD degeneration as assessed by the morphological Pfirrmann Score. Special focus was on the spatial variation of T2 and T2* between the annulus fibrosus (AF) and the nucleus pulposus (NP).