Noisy kriging-based optimization methods: A unified implementation within the DiceOptim package

Kriging-based optimization relying on noisy evaluations of complex systems has recently motivated contributions from various research communities. Five strategies have been implemented in the DiceOptim package. The corresponding functions constitute a user-friendly tool for solving expensive noisy optimization problems in a sequential framework, while offering some flexibility for advanced users. Besides, the implementation is done in a unified environment, making this package a useful device for studying the relative performances of existing approaches depending on the experimental setup. An overview of the package structure and interface is provided, as well as a description of the strategies and some insight about the implementation challenges and the proposed solutions. The strategies are compared to some existing optimization packages on analytical test functions and show promising performances.

Seismic stratigraphy of the Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize), a late Holocene climate and storm archive

Five seismic units may be identified in the similar to 8 m thick Holocene sediment package at the bottom of the Blue Hole, a 120 m deep sinkhole located in the atoll lagoon of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. These units may be correlated with the succession of an existing 5.85-m-long sediment core that reaches back to 1385 kyrs BP. The identification of seismic units is based on the fact that uniform, fine-grained background sediments show weak reflections while alternating background and coarser-grained event (storm) beds exhibit strong reflections in the seismic profiles. The main source of sediments is the marginal atoll reef and adjacent lagoon area to the east and north. Northeasterly winds and storms transport sediment into the Blue Hole, as seen in the eastward increase in sediment thickness, i.e., the eastward shallowing of the Blue Hole. Previous assumptions of much thicker Holocene sediment packages in the Blue Hole could not be confirmed. So far, close to 6-m-long cores were retrieved from the Blue Hole but the base of the sedimentary succession remains to be recovered. The nature of the basal sediments is unknown but mid-Holocene and possibly older, Pleistocene sinkhole deposits can be expected. The number of event beds identified in the Blue Hole (n = 37) during a 1.385 kyr-long period and the number of cyclones listed in historical databases suggest that only strong hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) left event beds in the Blue Hole sedimentary succession. Storm beds are numerous during 13-0.9 kyrs BP and 0.8-0.5 kyrs BP.

Resource allocation with project management software

We present results of a benchmark test evaluating the resource allocation capabilities of the project management software packages Acos Plus.1 8.2, CA SuperProject 5.0a, CS Project Professional 3.0, MS Project 2000, and Scitor Project Scheduler 8.0.1. The tests are based on 1560 instances of precedence– and resource–constrained project scheduling problems. For different complexity scenarios, we analyze the deviation of the makespan obtained by the software packages from the best feasible makespan known. Among the tested software packages, Acos Plus.1 and Project Scheduler show the best resource allocation performance. Moreover, our numerical analysis reveals a considerable performance gap between the implemented methods and state–of–the–art project scheduling algorithms, especially for large–sized problems. Thus, there is still a significant potential for improving solutions to resource allocation problems in practice.

Idiographic Self-Monitoring Instruments to Empower Client Participation and Evaluate Outcome in Intensive Family Preservation Services

Intensive Family Preservation Services seek to reflect the values of focusing on client strengths and viewing clients as colleagues. To promote those values, Intensive Family Preservation Programs should include a systematic form of client self monitoring in their packages of outcome measures. This paper presents a model of idiographic self-monitoring used in time series, single system research design developed for Family Partners, a family preservation program of the School for Contemporary Education in Annandale, Virginia. The evaluation model provides a means of empowering client families to utilize their strengths and promote their status as colleague in determining their own goals, participating in the change process, and measuring their own progress.

The determinants of physician and pharmacist utilization and equity of access under Korean universal health insurance

This study examines the social and behavioral determinants of two types of primary care, seeing a physician or a pharmacist, for Koreans and evaluates the equity of the Korean national health insurance system. The study applies the Aday and Andersen access framework to cross-sectional data from the 1992 Korean National Health Interview Survey (N = 21,841).^ The study found that in Korea, the elderly were most likely, and children least likely, to have used physician services. Women, household heads, those in small families, and the less educated were more likely than their counterparts to use physician and pharmacist services. Health status and need were important determinants of Koreans seeing a doctor or a pharmacist. Differences in need substantially accounted for the original differences observed between subgroups. Resources associated with having insurance coverage, a regular source of care, and place of residence (rural/urban) ameliorated to some extent the subgroup differences in the use of physicians' and pharmacists' services among Koreans. They were also major independent predictors of access. Having insurance remains a particularly important predictor of who uses physician services. Among the insured, trade-offs in the use of physician and pharmacist services were found in the current system, i.e., uninsured and poor Koreans were more likely to use pharmacist services, while insured and rural Koreans were more likely to use doctor services. Among the insured, cost sharing rates are lower for physician than for pharmacist services. Self-employed persons were less likely than government and industrial workers to use physician services. An underlying expectation under universal health insurance was that the Korean health care system would be equitable. The research results, however, did not fully support this expectation.^ The policy implications of these findings are that measures are required to extend insurance coverage to the uninsured, to equalize differences in benefit packages between health plans, and to expand the availability of physicians in rural areas. Further research is also needed to understand those who do not currently have a regular source of care and why and the access barriers that may exist for selected demographic subgroups (those in large families and unmarried or divorced/widowed persons). ^

Temperature-Time History of Subducted Continental-Crust, Mount Olympos Region, Greece

In the Mt. Olympos region of northeastern Greece, continental margin strata and basement rocks were subducted and metamorphosed under blueschist facies conditions, and thrust over carbonate platform strata during Alpine orogenesis. Subsequent exposure of the subducted basement rocks by normal faulting has allowed an integrated study of the timing of metamorphism, its relationship to deformation, and the thermal history of the subducted terrane. Alpine low-grade metamorphic assemblages occur at four structural levels. Three thrust sheets composed of Paleozoic granitic basement and Mesozoic metasedimentary cover were thrust over Mesozoic carbonate rocks and Eocene flysch; thrusting and metamorphism occurred first in the highest thrust sheets and progressed downward as units were imbricated from NE to SW. 40Ar/39Ar spectra from hornblende, white mica, and biotite samples indicate that the upper two units preserve evidence of four distinct thermal events: (1) 293–302 Ma crystallization of granites, with cooling from >550°C to <325°C by 284 Ma; (2) 98–100 Ma greenschist to blueschist-greenschist transition facies metamorphism (T∼350–500°C) and imbrication of continental thrust sheets; (3) 53–61 Ma blueschist facies metamorphism and deformation of the basement and continental margin units at T<350–400°C; (4) 36–40 Ma thrusting of blueschists over the carbonate platform, and metamorphism at T∼200–350°C. Only the Eocene and younger events affected the lower two structural packages. A fifth event, indicated by diffusive loss profiles in microcline spectra, reflects the beginning of uplift and cooling to T<100–150°C at 16–23 Ma, associated with normal faulting which continued until Quaternary time. Incomplete resetting of mica ages in all units constrains the temperature of metamorphism during continental subduction to T≤350°C, the closure temperature for Ar in muscovite. The diffusive loss profiles in micas and K-feldspars enable us to “see through” the younger events to older events in the high-T parts of the release spectra. Micas grown during earlier metamorphic events lost relatively small amounts of Ar during subsequent high pressure-low temperature metamorphism. Release spectra from phengites grown during Eocene metamorphism and deformation record the ages of the Ar-loss events. Alpine deformation in northern Greece occurred over a long time span (∼90 Ma), and involved subduction and episodic imbrication of continental basement before, during, and after the collision of the Apulian and Eurasian plates. Syn-subduction uplift and cooling probably combined with intermittently higher cooling rates during extensional events to preserve the blueschist facies mineral assemblages as they were exhumed from depths of >20 km. Extension in the Olympos region was synchronous with extension in the Mesohellenic trough and the Aegean back-arc, and concurrent with westward-progressing shortening in the external Hellenides.

Characteristics, Distribution and Persistence of Thin Layers Over a 48 Hour Period

The biological and physical processes contributing to planktonic thin layer dynamics were examined in a multidisciplinary study conducted in East Sound, Washington, USA between June 10 and June 25, 1998. The temporal and spatial scales characteristic of thin layers were determined using a nested sampling strategy utilizing 4 major types of platforms: (1) an array of 3 moored acoustical instrument packages and 2 moored optical instrument packages that recorded distributions and intensities of thin layers; (2) additional stationary instrumentation deployed outside the array comprised of meteorological stations, wave-tide gauges, and thermistor chains; (3) a research vessel anchored 150 m outside the western edge of the array; (4) 2 mobile vessels performing basin-wide surveys to define the spatial extent of thin layers and the physical hydrography of the Sound. We observed numerous occurrences of thin layers that contained locally enhanced concentrations of material; many of the layers persisted for intervals of several hours to a few days. More than one persistent thin layer may be present at any one time, and these spatially distinct thin layers often contain distinct plankton assemblages. The results suggest that the species or populations comprising each distinct thin layer have responded to different sets of biological and/or physical processes. The existence and persistence of planktonic thin layers generates extensive biological heterogeneity in the water column and may be important in maintaining species diversity and overall community structure.

Quantitative morphometric analysis of lakes using GIS: rectangularity R , ellipticity E , orientation O , and the rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi

Quantitative measures of polygon shapes and orientation are important elements of geospatial analysis. These kinds of measures are particularly valuable in the case of lakes, where shape and orientation patterns can help identifying the geomorphological agents behind lake formation and evolution. However, the lack of built-in tools in commercial geographic information system (GIS) software packages designed for this kind of analysis has meant that many researchers often must rely on tools and workarounds that are not always accurate. Here, an easy-to-use method to measure rectangularity R, ellipticity E, and orientation O is developed. In addition, a new rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi, is defined. Following a step-by-step process, it is shown how these measures and index can be easily calculated using a combination of GIS built-in functions. The identification of shapes and estimation of orientations performed by this method is applied to the case study of the geometric and oriented lakes of the Llanos de Moxos, in the Bolivian Amazon, where shape and orientation have been the two most important elements studied to infer possible formation mechanisms. It is shown that, thanks to these new indexes, shape and orientation patterns are unveiled, which would have been hard to identify otherwise.

A serial scheme for minimizing the duration of resource-constrained projects within Microsoft Project

Microsoft Project is one of the most-widely used software packages for project management. For the scheduling of resource-constrained projects, the package applies a priority-based procedure using a specific schedule-generation scheme. This procedure performs relatively poorly when compared against other software packages or state-of-the-art methods for resource-constrained project scheduling. In Microsoft Project 2010, it is possible to work with schedules that are infeasible with respect to the precedence or the resource constraints. We propose a novel schedule-generation scheme that makes use of this possibility. Under this scheme, the project tasks are scheduled sequentially while taking into account all temporal and resource constraints that a user can define within Microsoft Project. The scheme can be implemented as a priority-rule based heuristic procedure. Our computational results for two real-world construction projects indicate that this procedure outperforms the built-in procedure of Microsoft Project

A Research Roadmap for Complementary and Alternative Medicine – What We Need to Know by 2020

Background: The CAMbrella coordination action was funded within the Framework Programme 7. Its aim is to provide a research roadmap for clinical and epidemiological research for complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) that is appropriate for the health needs of European citizens and acceptable to their national research institutes and healthcare providers in both public and private sectors. One major issue in the European research agenda is the demographic change and its impact on health care. Our vision for 2020 is that there is an evidence base that enables European citizens to make informed decisions about CAM, both positive and negative. This roadmap proposes a strategic research agenda for the field of CAM designed to address future European health care challenges. This roadmap is based on the results of CAMbrella’s several work packages, literature reviews and expert discussions including a consensus meeting. Methods: We first conducted a systematic literature review on key issues in clinical and epidemiological research in CAM to identify the general concepts, methods and the strengths and weaknesses of current CAM research. These findings were discussed in a workshop (Castellaro, Italy, September 7–9th 2011) with international CAM experts and strategic and methodological recommendations were defined in order to improve the rigor and relevance of CAM research. These recommendations provide the basis for the research roadmap, which was subsequently discussed in a consensus conference (Järna, Sweden, May 9–11th 2012) with all CAMbrella members and the CAMbrella advisory board. The roadmap was revised after this discussion in CAMbrella Work Package (WP) 7 and finally approved by CAMbrella’s scientific steering committee on September 26th 2012. Results: Our main findings show that CAM is very heterogenous in terms of definitions and legal regulations between the European countries. In addition, citizens’ needs and attitudes towards CAM as well as the use and provision of CAM differ significantly between countries. In terms of research methodology, there was consensus that CAM researchers should make use of all the commonly accepted scientific research methods and employ those with utmost diligence combined in a mixed methods framework. Conclusions: We propose 6 core areas of research that should be investigated to achieve a robust knowledge base and to allow stakeholders to make informed decisions. These are: Research into the prevalence of CAM in Europe: Reviews show that we do not know enough about the circumstances in which CAM is used by Europeans. To enable a common European strategic approach, a clear picture of current use is of the utmost importance. Research into differences regarding citizens’ attitudes and needs towards CAM: Citizens are the driver for CAM utilization. Their needs and views on CAM are a key priority, and their interests must be investigated and addressed in future CAM research. Research into safety of CAM: Safety is a key issue for European citizens. CAM is considered safe, but reliable data is scarce although urgently needed in order to assess the risk and cost-benefit ratio of CAM. Research into the comparative effectiveness of CAM: Everybody needs to know in what situation CAM is a reasonable choice. Therefore, we recommend a clear emphasis on concurrent evaluation of the overall effectiveness of CAM as an additional or alternative treatment strategy in real-world settings. Research into effects of context and meaning: The impact of effects of context and meaning on the outcome of CAM treatments must be investigated; it is likely that they are significant. Research into different models of CAM health care integration: There are different models of CAM being integrated into conventional medicine throughout Europe, each with their respective strengths and limitations. These models should be described and concurrently evaluated; innovative models of CAM provision in health care systems should be one focus for CAM research. We also propose a methodological framework for CAM research. We consider that a framework of mixed methodological approaches is likely to yield the most useful information. In this model, all available research strategies including comparative effectiveness research utilising quantitative and qualitative methods should be considered to enable us to secure the greatest density of knowledge possible. Stakeholders, such as citizens, patients and providers, should be involved in every stage of developing the specific and relevant research questions, study design and the assurance of real-world relevance for the research. Furthermore, structural and sufficient financial support for research into CAM is needed to strengthen CAM research capacity if we wish to understand why it remains so popular within the EU. In order to consider employing CAM as part of the solution to the health care, health creation and self-care challenges we face by 2020, it is vital to obtain a robust picture of CAM use and reliable information about its cost, safety and effectiveness in real-world settings. We need to consider the availability, accessibility and affordability of CAM. We need to engage in research excellence and utilise comparative effectiveness approaches and mixed methods to obtain this data. Our recommendations are both strategic and methodological. They are presented for the consideration of researchers and funders while being designed to answer the important and implicit questions posed by EU citizens currently using CAM in apparently increasing numbers. We propose that the EU actively supports an EUwide strategic approach that facilitates the development of CAM research. This could be achieved in the first instance through funding a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to foster systematic communication between EU governments, public, charitable and industry funders as well as researchers, citizens and other stakeholders. The aim of this office would be to coordinate research strategy developments and research funding opportunities, as well as to document and disseminate international research activities in this field. With the aim to develop sustainability as second step, a European Centre for CAM should be established that takes over the monitoring and further development of a coordinated research strategy for CAM, as well as it should have funds that can be awarded to foster high quality and robust independent research with a focus on citizens health needs and pan-European collaboration. We wish to establish a solid funding for CAM research to adequately inform health care and health creation decision-making throughout the EU. This centre would ensure that our vision of a common, strategic and scientifically rigorous approach to CAM research becomes our legacy and Europe’s reality. We are confident that our recommendations will serve these essential goals for EU citizens.

High prevalence but limited evidence in complementary and alternative medicine: guidelines for future research

The use of complementary and alternative Medicine (CAM) has increased over the past two decades in Europe. Nonetheless, research investigating the evidence to support its use remains limited. The CAMbrella project funded by the European Commission aimed to develop a strategic research agenda starting by systematically evaluating the state of CAM in the EU. CAMbrella involved 9 work packages covering issues such as the definition of CAM; its legal status, provision and use in the EU; and a synthesis of international research perspectives. Based on the work package reports, we developed a strategic and methodologically robust research roadmap based on expert workshops, a systematic Delphi-based process and a final consensus conference. The CAMbrella project suggests six core areas for research to examine the potential contribution of CAM to the health care challenges faced by the EU. These areas include evaluating the prevalence of CAM use in Europe; the EU cititzens’ needs and attitudes regarding CAM; the safety of CAM; the comparative effectiveness of CAM; the effects of meaning and context on CAM outcomes; and different models for integrating CAM into existing health care systems. CAM research should use methods generally accepted in the evaluation of health services, including comparative effectiveness studies and mixed-methods designs. A research strategy is urgently needed, ideally led by a European CAM coordinating research office dedicated to fostering systematic communication between EU governments, the public, charitable and industry funders, researchers and other stakeholders. A European Centre for CAM should also be established to monitor and further a coordinated research strategy with sufficient funds to commission and promote high quality, independent research focusing on the public’s health needs and pan-European collaboration. There is a disparity between highly prevalent use of CAM in Europe and solid knowledge about it. A strategic approach on CAM research should be established to investigate the identified gaps of knowledge and to address upcoming health care challenges.

Making regression tables from stored estimates

Organizing and archiving statistical results and processing a subset of those results for publication are important and often underestimated issues in conducting statistical analyses. Because automation of these tasks is often poor, processing results produced by statistical packages is quite laborious and vulnerable to error. I will therefore present a new package called estout that facilitates and automates some of these tasks. This new command can be used to produce regression tables for use with spreadsheets, LaTeX, HTML, or word processors. For example, the results for multiple models can be organized in spreadsheets and can thus be archived in an orderly manner. Alternatively, the results can be directly saved as a publication-ready table for inclusion in, for example, a LaTeX document. estout is implemented as a wrapper for estimates table but has many additional features, such as support for mfx. However, despite its flexibility, estout is—I believe—still very straightforward and easy to use. Furthermore, estout can be customized via so-called defaults files. A tool to make available supplementary statistics called estadd is also provided.

High Prevalence of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase, Plasmid-Mediated AmpC and Carbapenemase genes in Food for Pets

We evaluated the pet food contained in thirty packages as potential origin of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Gram-negative organisms and β-lactamase genes (bla). Alive bacteria were not detected by selective culture. However, PCR investigations on food DNA extracts indicated that samples harbored blaCTX-M-15 (53.3%), blaCMY-4 (20%), and blaVEB-4-like (6.7%). Particularly worrisome was the presence of blaOXA-48-like carbapenemases (13.3%). Original pet food ingredients and/or the production process were highly contaminated with bacteria carrying clinically relevant acquired bla genes.

Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling with Project Management Information Systems

Most commercial project management software packages include planning methods to devise schedules for resource-constrained projects. As it is proprietary information of the software vendors which planning methods are implemented, the question arises how the software packages differ in quality with respect to their resource-allocation capabilities. We experimentally evaluate the resource-allocation capabilities of eight recent software packages by using 1,560 instances with 30, 60, and 120 activities of the well-known PSPLIB library. In some of the analyzed packages, the user may influence the resource allocation by means of multi-level priority rules, whereas in other packages, only few options can be chosen. We study the impact of various complexity parameters and priority rules on the project duration obtained by the software packages. The results indicate that the resource-allocation capabilities of these packages differ significantly. In general, the relative gap between the packages gets larger with increasing resource scarcity and with increasing number of activities. Moreover, the selection of the priority rule has a considerable impact on the project duration. Surprisingly, when selecting a priority rule in the packages where it is possible, both the mean and the variance of the project duration are in general worse than for the packages which do not offer the selection of a priority rule.

Doppler Orbit Determination of Deep Space Probes by the Bernese GNSS Software: First Results of the Combined Orbit Determination from DSN and Inter-Satellite Ka-Band Data from the Grail Mission

Navigation of deep space probes is most commonly operated using the spacecraft Doppler tracking technique. Orbital parameters are determined from a series of repeated measurements of the frequency shift of a microwave carrier over a given integration time. Currently, both ESA and NASA operate antennas at several sites around the world to ensure the tracking of deep space probes. Just a small number of software packages are nowadays used to process Doppler observations. The Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB) has recently started the development of Doppler data processing capabilities within the Bernese GNSS Software. This software has been extensively used for Precise Orbit Determination of Earth orbiting satellites using GPS data collected by on-board receivers and for subsequent determination of the Earth gravity field. In this paper, we present the currently achieved status of the Doppler data modeling and orbit determination capabilities in the Bernese GNSS Software using GRAIL data. In particular we will focus on the implemented orbit determination procedure used for the combined analysis of Doppler and intersatellite Ka-band data. We show that even at this earlier stage of the development we can achieve an accuracy of few mHz on two-way S-band Doppler observation and of 2 µm/s on KBRR data from the GRAIL primary mission phase.