Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

The comprehensive Australian Study of entrepreneurial emergence (CAUSEE) high potential nascent entrepreneurs : some preliminary findings

Principal Topic The Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) represents the first Australian study to employ and extend the longitudinal and large scale systematic research developed for the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics (PSED) in the US (Gartner, Shaver, Carter and Reynolds, 2004; Reynolds, 2007). This research approach addresses several shortcomings of other data sets including under coverage; selection bias; memory decay and hindsight bias, and lack of time separation between the assessment of causes and their assumed effects (Johnson et al 2006; Davidsson 2006). However, a remaining problem is that any a random sample of start-ups will be dominated by low potential, imitative ventures. In recognition of this issue CAUSEE supplemented PSED-type random samples with theoretically representative samples of the 'high potential' emerging ventures employing a unique methodology using novel multiple screening criteria. We define new ''high-potential'' ventures as new entrepreneurial innovative ventures with high aspirations and potential for growth. This distinguishes them from those ''lifestyle'' imitative businesses that start small and remain intentionally small (Timmons, 1986). CAUSEE is providing the opportunity to explore, for the first time, if process and outcomes of high potentials differ from those of traditional lifestyle firms. This will allows us to compare process and outcome attributes of the random sample with the high potential over sample of new firms and young firms. The attributes in which we will examine potential differences will include source of funding, and internationalisation. This is interesting both in terms of helping to explain why different outcomes occur but also in terms of assistance to future policymaking, given that high growth potential firms are increasingly becoming the focus of government intervention in economic development policies around the world. The first wave of data of a four year longitudinal study has been collected using these samples, allowing us to also provide some initial analysis on which to continue further research. The aim of this paper therefore is to present some selected preliminary results from the first wave of the data collection, with comparisons of high potential with lifestyle firms. We expect to see owing to greater resource requirements and higher risk profiles, more use of venture capital and angel investment, and more internationalisation activity to assist in recouping investment and to overcome Australia's smaller economic markets Methodology/Key Propositions In order to develop the samples of 'high potential' in the NF and YF categories a set of qualification criteria were developed. Specifically, to qualify, firms as nascent or young high potentials, we used multiple, partly compensating screening criteria related to the human capital and aspirations of the founders as well as the novelty of the venture idea, and venture high technology. A variety of techniques were also employed to develop a multi level dataset of sources to develop leads and firm details. A dataset was generated from a variety of websites including major stakeholders including the Federal and State Governments, Australian Chamber of Commerce, University Commercialisation Offices, Patent and Trademark Attorneys, Government Awards and Industry Awards in Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Industry lead associations, Venture Capital Association, Innovation directories including Australian Technology Showcase, Business and Entrepreneurs Magazines including BRW and Anthill. In total, over 480 industry, association, government and award sources were generated in this process. Of these, 74 discrete sources generated high potentials that fufilled the criteria. 1116 firms were contacted as high potential cases. 331 cases agreed to participate in the screener, with 279 firms (134 nascents, and 140 young firms) successfully passing the high potential criteria. 222 Firms (108 Nascents and 113 Young firms) completed the full interview. For the general sample CAUSEE conducts screening phone interviews with a very large number of adult members of households randomly selected through random digit dialing using screening questions which determine whether respondents qualify as 'nascent entrepreneurs'. CAUSEE additionally targets 'young firms' those that commenced trading from 2004 or later. This process yielded 977 Nascent Firms (3.4%) and 1,011 Young Firms (3.6%). These were directed to the full length interview (40-60 minutes) either directly following the screener or later by appointment. The full length interviews were completed by 594 NF and 514 YF cases. These are the cases we will use in the comparative analysis in this report. Results and Implications The results for this paper are based on Wave one of the survey which has been completed and the data obtained. It is expected that the findings will assist in beginning to develop an understanding of high potential nascent and young firms in Australia, how they differ from the larger lifestyle entrepreneur group that makes up the vast majority of the new firms created each year, and the elements that may contribute to turning high potential growth status into high growth realities. The results have implications for Government in the design of better conditions for the creation of new business, firms who assist high potentials in developing better advice programs in line with a better understanding of their needs and requirements, individuals who may be considering becoming entrepreneurs in high potential arenas and existing entrepreneurs make better decisions.

Multiple-choice versus short-response items: Differences in omit behavior

The overall rate of omission of items for 28,331 17 year old Australian students on a high stakes test of achievement in the common elements or cognitive skills of the senior school curriculum is reported for a subtest in multiple choice format and a subtest in short response format. For the former, the omit rates were minuscule and there was no significant difference by gender or by type of school attended. For the latter, where an item can be 'worth' up to five times that of a single multiple choice item, the omit rates were between 10 and 20 times that for multiple choice and the difference between male and female omit rate was significant as was the difference between students from government and non-government schools. For both formats, females from single sex schools omitted significantly fewer items than did females from co-educational schools. Some possible explanations of omit behaviour are alluded to.

The aptitudes of allied health professionals working in remote communities

This study aimed to identify the aptitudes required in allied health professionals working in three different service delivery models serving remote locations in Northern tropical Australia. Eighteen allied health professionals including," dietetics, diabetes educators, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, psychology, podiatry, social work and speech pathology participated in this exploratory study using a narrative approach. A range of aptitudes were identified and themed under the following headings: (1) being organized but flexible, (2) cooperation and mediation, (3) culturally aware and accepting communicators, (4) knowing the community (5) resourcefulness and resilience and (6) reflectivity. Limiting factors were also deduced. Three of the themes are discussed in this paper. The study found that allied health professionals working in remote settings identified as important personal attributes not necessarily valued in metropolitan settings. Recruitment processes and education programs need to recognize the importance of personal attributes as well as professional skills.

The user query based learning system for lifetime prediction of metallic components

Real-World Data Mining Applications generally do not end up with the creation of the models. The use of the model is the final purpose especially in prediction tasks. The problem arises when the model is built based on much more information than that the user can provide in using the model. As a result, the performance of model reduces drastically due to many missing attributes values. This paper develops a new learning system framework, called as User Query Based Learning System (UQBLS), for building data mining models best suitable for users use. We demonstrate its deployment in a real-world application of the lifetime prediction of metallic components in buildings

Curriculum mapping of the Spatial Science Program, QUT : what was the cartography journey?

There are currently a number of issues of great importance affecting universities and the way in which their programs are now offered. Many issues are largely being driven top-down and impact both at a university-wide and at an individual discipline level. This paper provides a brief history of cartography and digital mapping education at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT). It also provides an overview of what is curriculum mapping and presents some interesting findings from the program review process. Further, this review process has triggered discussion and action for the review, mapping and embedding of graduate attributes within the spatial science major program. Some form of practical based learning is expected in vocationally oriented degrees that lead to professional accreditation and are generally regarded as a good learning exposure. With the restructure of academic programs across the Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering in 2006, spatial science and surveying students now undertake a formal work integrated learning unit. There is little doubt that students acquire the skills of their discipline (mapping science, spatial) by being immersed in the industry culture- learning how to process information and solve real-world problems within context. The broad theme of where geo-spatial mapping skills are embedded in this broad-based tertiary education course are examined with some focused discussion on the learning objectives, outcomes and examples of some student learning experiences

Mentoring preservice teachers in primary mathematics

A literature-based instrument gathered data about 147 final-year preservice teachers’ perceptions of their mentors’ practices related to primary mathematics teaching. Five factors characterized effective mentoring practices in primary mathematics teaching had acceptable Cronbach alphas, that is, Personal Attributes (mean scale score=3.97, SD [standard deviation]=0.81), System Requirements (mean scale score=2.98, SD=0.96), Pedagogical Knowledge (mean scale score=3.61, SD=0.89), Modelling (mean scale score=4.03, SD=0.73), and Feedback (mean scale score=3.80, SD=0.86) were .91, .74, .94, .89, and .86 respectively. Qualitative data (n=44) investigated mentors’ perceptions of mentoring these preservice teachers, including identification of successful mentoring practices and ways to enhance practices.

Understanding preservice teachers’ predispositions for teaching engineering education in Australian schools.

Engineering education is underrepresented in Australia at the primary, middle school and high school levels. Understanding preservice teachers’ preparedness to be involved in engineering will be important for developing an engineering curriculum. This study administered a literature-based survey to 36 preservice teachers, which gathered data about their perceptions of engineering and their predispositions for teaching engineering. Findings indicated that the four constructs associated with the survey had acceptable Cronbach alpha scores (i.e., personal professional attributes .88, student motivation .91, pedagogical knowledge .91, and fused curricula .89). However, there was no “disagree” or “strongly disagree” response greater than 22% for any of the 25 survey items. Generally, these preservice teachers indicated predispositions for teaching engineering in the middle school. Extensive scaffolding and support with education programs will assist preservice teachers to develop confidence in this field. Governments and education departments need to recognise the importance of engineering education, and universities must take a stronger role in developing engineering education curricula.

Employing the five-factor mentoring instrument : analysing mentoring practices for teaching primary science.

Primary science education is a concern around the world and quality mentoring within schools can develop preservice teachers’ practices. A five-factor model for mentoring has been identified, namely, personal attributes, system requirements, pedagogical knowledge, modelling, and feedback. Final-year preservice teachers (mentees, n=211) from three Turkish universities were administered a previously validated instrument to gather perceptions of their mentoring in primary science teaching. ANOVA indicated that each of these five factors was statistically significant (p<.001) with mean scale scores ranging from 3.36 to 4.12. Although mentees perceived their mentors to provide evaluation feedback (95%), model classroom management (88%), guide their preparation (96%), and outline the science curriculum (92%), the majority of mentors were perceived not to assist their mentees in 10 of the 34 survey items. Professional development programmes that target the specific needs of these mentors may further enhance mentoring practices for advancing primary science teaching.

Security metrics for object-oriented class designs

Measuring quality attributes of object-oriented designs (e.g. maintainability and performance) has been covered by a number of studies. However, these studies have not considered security as much as other quality attributes. Also, most security studies focus at the level of individual program statements. This approach makes it hard and expensive to discover and fix vulnerabilities caused by design errors. In this work, we focus on the security design of an object oriented application and define a number of security metrics. These metrics allow designers to discover and fix security vulnerabilities at an early stage, and help compare the security of various alternative designs. In particular, we propose seven security metrics to measure Data Encapsulation (accessibility) and Cohesion (interactions) of a given object-oriented class from the point of view of potential information flow.

Dancing between diversity and consistency : refining assessment in postgraduate degrees in dance

This publication is the culmination of a 2 year Australian Learning and Teaching Council's Project Priority Programs Research Grant which investigates key issues and challenges in developing flexible guidelines lines for best practice in Australian Doctoral and Masters by Research Examination, encompassing the two modes of investigation, written and multi-modal (practice-led/based) theses, their distinctiveness and their potential interplay. The aims of the project were to address issues of assessment legitimacy raised by the entry of practice-orientated dance studies into Australian higher degrees; examine literal embodiment and presence, as opposed to cultural studies about states of embodiment; foreground the validity of questions around subjectivity and corporeal intelligence/s and the reliability of artistic/aesthetic communications, and finally to celebrate ‘performance mastery’(Melrose 2003) as a rigorous and legitimate mode of higher research. The project began with questions which centred around: the functions of higher degree dance research; concepts of 'master-ness’ and ‘doctorateness’; the kinds of languages, structures and processes which may guide candidates, supervisors, examiners and research personnel; the purpose of evaluation/examination; addressing positive and negative attributes of examination. Finally the study examined ways in which academic/professional, writing/dancing, tradition/creation and diversity/consistency relationships might be fostered to embrace change. Over two years, the authors undertook a qualitative national study encompassing a triangulation of semi-structured face to face interviews and industry forums to gather views from the profession, together with an analysis of existing guidelines, and recent literature in the field. The most significant primary data emerged from 74 qualitative interviews with supervisors, examiners, research deans and administrators, and candidates in dance and more broadly across the creative arts. Qualitative data gathered from the two primary sources, was coded and analysed using the NVivo software program. Further perspectives were drawn from international consultant and dance researcher Susan Melrose, as well as publications in the field, and initial feedback from a draft document circulated at the World Dance Alliance Global Summit in July 2008 in Brisbane. Refinement of data occurred in a continual sifting process until the final publication was produced. This process resulted in a set of guidelines in the form of a complex dynamic system for both product and process oriented outcomes of multi-modal theses, along with short position papers on issues which arose from the research such as contested definitions, embodiment and ephemerality, ‘liveness’ in performance research higher degrees, dissolving theory/practice binaries, the relationship between academe and industry, documenting practices and a re-consideration of the viva voce.

Temporal construal in advertising : the moderating role of temporal orientation and attribute importance in consumer evaluations

In two experiments, we study how the temporal orientation of consumers (i.e., future-oriented or present-oriented), temporal construal (distant future, near future), and product attribute importance (primary, secondary) influence advertisement evaluations. Data suggest that future-oriented consumers react most favorably to ads that feature a product to be released in the distant future and that highlight primary product attributes. In contrast, present-oriented consumers prefer near-future ads that highlight secondary product attributes. Study 2 shows that consumer attitudes are mediated by perceptions of attribute diagnosticity (i.e., the perceived usefulness of the attribute information). Together, these experiments shed light on how individual differences, such as temporal orientation, offer valuable insights into temporal construal effects in advertising.

Defining friendworks : communication perspective on social networks types

This paper introduces friendwork as a new term in social networks studies. A friendwork is a network of friends. It is a specific case of an interpersonal social network. Naming this seemingly well known and familiar group of people as a friendwork facilitates its differentiation from the overall social network, while highlighting this subgroup's specific attributes and dynamics. The focus on one segment within social networks stimulates a wider discussion regarding the different subgroups within social networks. Other subgroups also discussed in this paper are: family dependent, work related, location based and virtual acquaintances networks. This discussion informs a larger study of social media, specifically addressing interactive communication modes that are in use within friendworks: direct (face-to-face) and mediated (mainly fixed telephone, internet and mobile phone). It explores the role of social media within friendworks while providing a communication perspective on social networks.

Host searching behaviour of Diachasmimorpha kraussii (Fullaway) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae), a polyphagous parasitoid of Dacinae fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Diachasmimorpha kraussii (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Opiinae) is a koinobiont larval parasitoid of dacine fruit flies of the genus Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) in its native range (Australia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands). The wasp is a potentially important control agent for pest fruit flies, having been considered for both classical and inundative biological control releases. I investigated the host searching, selection and utilisation mechanisms of the wasp against native host flies within its native range (Australia). Such studies are rare in opiine research where the majority of studies, because of the applied nature of the research, have been carried out using host flies and environments which are novel to the wasps. Diachasmimorpha kraussii oviposited equally into maggots of four fruit fly species, all of which coexist with the wasp in its native range (Australia), when tested in a choice trial using a uniform artificial diet media. While eggs laid into Bactrocera tryoni and B. jarvisi developed successfully through to adult wasps, eggs laid into B. cucumis and B. cacuminata were encapsulated. These results suggest that direct larval cues are not an important element in host selection by D. kraussii. Further exploring how D. kraussii locates suitable host larvae, I investigated the role of plant cues in host searching and selection. This was examined in a laboratory choice trial using uninfested fruit or fruit infested with either B. tryoni or B. jarvisi maggots. The results showed a consistent preference ranking among infested fruits by the wasp, with guava and peach most preferred, but with no response to uninfested fruits. Thus, it appears the wasp uses chemical cues emitted in response to fruit fly larval infestation for host location, but does not use cues from uninfested fruits. To further tease apart the role of (i) suitable and non-suitable maggots, (ii) infested and uninfested fruits of different plant species, and (iii) adult flies, in wasp host location and selection, I carried out a series of behavioural tests where I manipulated these attributes in a field cage. These trials confirmed that D. kraussii did not respond to cues in uninfested fruits, that there were consistent preferences by the wasps for different maggot infested fruits, that fruit preference did not vary depending on whether the maggots were physiologically suitable or not suitable for wasp offspring development, and finally, that adult flies appear to play a secondary role as indicators of larval infestation. To investigate wasp behaviour in an unrestrained environment, I concurrently observed diurnal foraging behaviours of both the wasp and one of its host fly in a small nectarine orchard. Wasp behaviour, both spatially and temporally, was not correlated with adult fruit fly behaviour or abundance. This study reinforced the point that infested fruit seems to be the primary cue used by foraging wasps. Wasp and fly feeding and mating was not observed in the orchard, implying these activities are occurring elsewhere. It is highly unlikely that these behaviours were happening within the orchard during the night as both insects are diurnal. As the final component of investigating host location, I carried out a habitat preference study for the wasp at the landscape scale. Using infested sentinel fruits, I tested the parasitism rate of B. tryoni in eucalyptus sclerophyll forest, rainforest and suburbia in South East Queensland. Although, rainforest is the likely endemic habitat of both B. tryoni and D. kraussii, B. tryoni abundance is significantly greater in suburban environments followed by eucalyptus sclerophyll forest. Parasitism rate was found to be higher in suburbia than in the eucalyptus sclerophyll forest, while no parasitism was recorded in the rainforest. This result suggests that wasps orient within the landscape towards areas of high host density and are not restricted by habitat types. Results from the different experiments suggest that host searching, selection and utilisation behaviour of D. kraussii are strongly influenced by cues associated with fruit fly larval feeding. Cues from uninfested fruits, the host larvae themselves, and the adult host flies play minimal roles. The discussion focuses on the fit of D. kraussii to Vinson’s classical parasitoid host location model and the implications of results for biological control, including recommendations for host and plant preference screening protocols and release regimes.

A Penalty-based Genetic Algorithm for QoS-AwareWeb Service Composition with Inter-Service Dependencies and Conflicts

In Web service based systems, new value-added Web services can be constructed by integrating existing Web services. A Web service may have many implementations, which are functionally identical, but have different Quality of Service (QoS) attributes, such as response time, price, reputation, reliability, availability and so on. Thus, a significant research problem in Web service composition is how to select an implementation for each of the component Web services so that the overall QoS of the composite Web service is optimal. This is so called QoS-aware Web service composition problem. In some composite Web services there are some dependencies and conflicts between the Web service implementations. However, existing approaches cannot handle the constraints. This paper tackles the QoS-aware Web service composition problem with inter service dependencies and conflicts using a penalty-based genetic algorithm (GA). Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and the scalability of the penalty-based GA.