Numerical simulations of intense tropical storms

A high resolution general circulation model has been used to study intense tropical storms. A five-year-long global integration with a spatial resolution of 125 km has been analysed. The geographical and seasonal distribution of tropical storms agrees remarkably well with observations. The structure of individual storms also agrees with observations, but the storms are generally more extensive in coverage and less extreme than the observed ones. A few additional calculations have also been done by a very high resolution limited-area version of the same model, where the boundary conditions successively have been interpolated from the global model. These results are very realistic in many details of the structure of the storms including simulated rain-bands and an eye structure. The global model has also been used in another five-year integration to study the influence of greenhouse warming. The sea surface temperatures have been taken from a transient climate change experiment carried out with a low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The result is a significant reduction in the number of hurricanes, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Main reasons for this can be found in changes in the largescale circulation, i.e. a weakening of the Hadley circulation, and a more intense warming of the upper tropical troposphere. A similar effect can be seen during warm ENSO events, where fewer North Atlantic hurricanes have been reported.

Integration of Space and In Situ Observations to Study Global Climate Change

The currently available model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation are a by-product of the daily requirement of producing initial conditions for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These data sets have been quite useful for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes, and for describing the nature of the general circulation of the atmosphere. However, due to limitations in the early data assimilation systems and inconsistencies caused by numerous model changes, the available model-based global data sets may not be suitable for studying global climate change. A comprehensive analysis of global observations based on a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model should be undertaken to integrate space and in situ observations to produce internally consistent, homogeneous, multivariate data sets for the earth's climate system. The concept is equally applicable for producing data sets for the atmosphere, the oceans, and the biosphere, and such data sets will be quite useful for studying global climate change.

A Nyström method for a class of integral equations on the real line with applications to scattering by diffraction gratings and rough surfaces

We propose a Nystr¨om/product integration method for a class of second kind integral equations on the real line which arise in problems of two-dimensional scalar and elastic wave scattering by unbounded surfaces. Stability and convergence of the method is established with convergence rates dependent on the smoothness of components of the kernel. The method is applied to the problem of acoustic scattering by a sound soft one-dimensional surface which is the graph of a function f, and superalgebraic convergence is established in the case when f is infinitely smooth. Numerical results are presented illustrating this behavior for the case when f is periodic (the diffraction grating case). The Nystr¨om method for this problem is stable and convergent uniformly with respect to the period of the grating, in contrast to standard integral equation methods for diffraction gratings which fail at a countable set of grating periods.

An ontology-based approach for data integration in regionally interoperable healthcare systems

In order to best utilize the limited resource of medical resources, and to reduce the cost and improve the quality of medical treatment, we propose to build an interoperable regional healthcare systems among several levels of medical treatment organizations. In this paper, our approaches are as follows:(1) the ontology based approach is introduced as the methodology and technological solution for information integration; (2) the integration framework of data sharing among different organizations are proposed(3)the virtual database to realize data integration of hospital information system is established. Our methods realize the effective management and integration of the medical workflow and the mass information in the interoperable regional healthcare system. Furthermore, this research provides the interoperable regional healthcare system with characteristic of modularization, expansibility and the stability of the system is enhanced by hierarchy structure.

Gradient recovery in adaptive finite-element methods for parabolic problems

We derive energy-norm a posteriori error bounds, using gradient recovery (ZZ) estimators to control the spatial error, for fully discrete schemes for the linear heat equation. This appears to be the �rst completely rigorous derivation of ZZ estimators for fully discrete schemes for evolution problems, without any restrictive assumption on the timestep size. An essential tool for the analysis is the elliptic reconstruction technique.Our theoretical results are backed with extensive numerical experimentation aimed at (a) testing the practical sharpness and asymptotic behaviour of the error estimator against the error, and (b) deriving an adaptive method based on our estimators. An extra novelty provided is an implementation of a coarsening error "preindicator", with a complete implementation guide in ALBERTA in the appendix.

Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction

Climate model ensembles are widely heralded for their potential to quantify uncertainties and generate probabilistic climate projections. However, such technical improvements to modeling science will do little to deliver on their ultimate promise of improving climate policymaking and adaptation unless the insights they generate can be effectively communicated to decision makers. While some of these communicative challenges are unique to climate ensembles, others are common to hydrometeorological modeling more generally, and to the tensions arising between the imperatives for saliency, robustness, and richness in risk communication. The paper reviews emerging approaches to visualizing and communicating climate ensembles and compares them to the more established and thoroughly evaluated communication methods used in the numerical weather prediction domains of day-to-day weather forecasting (in particular probabilities of precipitation), hurricane and flood warning, and seasonal forecasting. This comparative analysis informs recommendations on best practice for climate modelers, as well as prompting some further thoughts on key research challenges to improve the future communication of climate change uncertainties.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magnetic reconnection: II. Measuring expansions in the ionospheric flow response

A numerical model embodying the concepts of the Cowley-Lockwood (Cowley and Lockwood, 1992, 1997) paradigm has been used to produce a simple Cowley– Lockwood type expanding flow pattern and to calculate the resulting change in ion temperature. Cross-correlation, fixed threshold analysis and threshold relative to peak are used to determine the phase speed of the change in convection pattern, in response to a change in applied reconnection. Each of these methods fails to fully recover the expansion of the onset of the convection response that is inherent in the simulations. The results of this study indicate that any expansion of the convection pattern will be best observed in time-series data using a threshold which is a fixed fraction of the peak response. We show that these methods used to determine the expansion velocity can be used to discriminate between the two main models for the convection response to a change in reconnection.

Acoustic scattering : high frequency boundary element methods and unified transform methods

We describe some recent advances in the numerical solution of acoustic scattering problems. A major focus of the paper is the efficient solution of high frequency scattering problems via hybrid numerical-asymptotic boundary element methods. We also make connections to the unified transform method due to A. S. Fokas and co-authors, analysing particular instances of this method, proposed by J. A. De-Santo and co-authors, for problems of acoustic scattering by diffraction gratings.

Energy consistent discontinuous Galerkin methods for the Navier–Stokes–Korteweg system

We design consistent discontinuous Galerkin finite element schemes for the approximation of the Euler-Korteweg and the Navier-Stokes-Korteweg systems. We show that the scheme for the Euler-Korteweg system is energy and mass conservative and that the scheme for the Navier-Stokes-Korteweg system is mass conservative and monotonically energy dissipative. In this case the dissipation is isolated to viscous effects, that is, there is no numerical dissipation. In this sense the methods are consistent with the energy dissipation of the continuous PDE systems. - See more at: http://www.ams.org/journals/mcom/2014-83-289/S0025-5718-2014-02792-0/home.html#sthash.rwTIhNWi.dpuf

Energy consistent discontinuous Galerkin methods for a quasi-incompressible diffuse two phase flow model

We design consistent discontinuous Galerkin finite element schemes for the approximation of a quasi-incompressible two phase flow model of Allen–Cahn/Cahn–Hilliard/Navier–Stokes–Korteweg type which allows for phase transitions. We show that the scheme is mass conservative and monotonically energy dissipative. In this case the dissipation is isolated to discrete equivalents of those effects already causing dissipation on the continuous level, that is, there is no artificial numerical dissipation added into the scheme. In this sense the methods are consistent with the energy dissipation of the continuous PDE system.

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for the p-biharmonic equation from a discrete variational perspective

We study discontinuous Galerkin approximations of the p-biharmonic equation for p∈(1,∞) from a variational perspective. We propose a discrete variational formulation of the problem based on an appropriate definition of a finite element Hessian and study convergence of the method (without rates) using a semicontinuity argument. We also present numerical experiments aimed at testing the robustness of the method.

A priori error analysis of space–time Trefftz discontinuous Galerkin methods for wave problems

We present and analyse a space–time discontinuous Galerkin method for wave propagation problems. The special feature of the scheme is that it is a Trefftz method, namely that trial and test functions are solution of the partial differential equation to be discretised in each element of the (space–time) mesh. The method considered is a modification of the discontinuous Galerkin schemes of Kretzschmar et al. (2014) and of Monk & Richter (2005). For Maxwell’s equations in one space dimension, we prove stability of the method, quasi-optimality, best approximation estimates for polynomial Trefftz spaces and (fully explicit) error bounds with high order in the meshwidth and in the polynomial degree. The analysis framework also applies to scalar wave problems and Maxwell’s equations in higher space dimensions. Some numerical experiments demonstrate the theoretical results proved and the faster convergence compared to the non-Trefftz version of the scheme.