A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Multi-textured 3D humanoid reconstruction through passive and active automatic techniques = Reconstrucción de humanoides 3D multi-texturados mediante técnicas pasivas y activas automáticas

The proliferation of video games and other applications of computer graphics in everyday life demands a much easier way to create animatable virtual human characters. Traditionally, this has been the job of highly skilled artists and animators that painstakingly model, rig and animate their avatars, and usually have to tune them for each application and transmission/rendering platform. The emergence of virtual/mixed reality environments also calls for practical and costeffective ways to produce custom models of actual people. The purpose of the present dissertation is bringing 3D human scanning closer to the average user. For this, two different techniques are presented, one passive and one active. The first one is a fully automatic system for generating statically multi-textured avatars of real people captured with several standard cameras. Our system uses a state-of-the-art shape from silhouette technique to retrieve the shape of subject. However, to deal with the lack of detail that is common in the facial region for these kind of techniques, which do not handle concavities correctly, our system proposes an approach to improve the quality of this region. This face enhancement technique uses a generic facial model which is transformed according to the specific facial features of the subject. Moreover, this system features a novel technique for generating view-independent texture atlases computed from the original images. This static multi-texturing system yields a seamless texture atlas calculated by combining the color information from several photos. We suppress the color seams due to image misalignments and irregular lighting conditions that multi-texturing approaches typically suffer from, while minimizing the blurring effect introduced by color blending techniques. The second technique features a system to retrieve a fully animatable 3D model of a human using a commercial depth sensor. Differently to other approaches in the current state of the art, our system does not require the user to be completely still through the scanning process, and neither the depth sensor is moved around the subject to cover all its surface. Instead, the depth sensor remains static and the skeleton tracking information is used to compensate the user’s movements during the scanning stage. RESUMEN La popularización de videojuegos y otras aplicaciones de los gráficos por ordenador en el día a día requiere una manera más sencilla de crear modelos virtuales humanos animables. Tradicionalmente, estos modelos han sido creados por artistas profesionales que cuidadosamente los modelan y animan, y que tienen que adaptar específicamente para cada aplicación y plataforma de transmisión o visualización. La aparición de los entornos de realidad virtual/mixta aumenta incluso más la demanda de técnicas prácticas y baratas para producir modelos 3D representando personas reales. El objetivo de esta tesis es acercar el escaneo de humanos en 3D al usuario medio. Para ello, se presentan dos técnicas diferentes, una pasiva y una activa. La primera es un sistema automático para generar avatares multi-texturizados de personas reales mediante una serie de cámaras comunes. Nuestro sistema usa técnicas del estado del arte basadas en shape from silhouette para extraer la forma del sujeto a escanear. Sin embargo, este tipo de técnicas no gestiona las concavidades correctamente, por lo que nuestro sistema propone una manera de incrementar la calidad en una región del modelo que se ve especialmente afectada: la cara. Esta técnica de mejora facial usa un modelo 3D genérico de una cara y lo modifica según los rasgos faciales específicos del sujeto. Además, el sistema incluye una novedosa técnica para generar un atlas de textura a partir de las imágenes capturadas. Este sistema de multi-texturización consigue un atlas de textura sin transiciones abruptas de color gracias a su manera de mezclar la información de color de varias imágenes sobre cada triángulo. Todas las costuras y discontinuidades de color debidas a las condiciones de iluminación irregulares son eliminadas, minimizando el efecto de desenfoque de la interpolación que normalmente introducen este tipo de métodos. La segunda técnica presenta un sistema para conseguir un modelo humano 3D completamente animable utilizando un sensor de profundidad. A diferencia de otros métodos del estado de arte, nuestro sistema no requiere que el usuario esté completamente quieto durante el proceso de escaneado, ni mover el sensor alrededor del sujeto para cubrir toda su superficie. Por el contrario, el sensor se mantiene estático y el esqueleto virtual de la persona, que se va siguiendo durante el proceso, se utiliza para compensar sus movimientos durante el escaneado.

Multi-component assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : an evaluation of the ADO and DOSE indices and the global obstructive lung disease categories in international primary care data sets

Funding The International Primary Care Respiratory Group (IPCRG) provided funding for this research project as an UNLOCK group study for which the funding was obtained through an unrestricted grant by Novartis AG, Basel, Switzerland. The latter funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Database access for the OPCRD was provided by the Respiratory Effectiveness Group (REG) and Research in Real Life; the OPCRD statistical analysis was funded by REG. The Bocholtz Study was funded by PICASSO for COPD, an initiative of Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer and the Caphri Research Institute, Maastricht University, The Netherlands.

Multi-responsiveness of single anterior pituitary cells to hypothalamic-releasing hormones: A cellular basis for paradoxical secretion

The classic view for hypothalamic regulation of anterior pituitary (AP) hormone secretion holds that release of each AP hormone is controlled specifically by a corresponding hypothalamic-releasing hormone (HRH). In this scenario, binding of a given HRH (thyrotropin-, growth hormone-, corticotropin-, and luteinizing hormone-releasing hormones) to specific receptors in its target cell increases the concentration of cytosolic Ca2+ ([Ca2+]i), thereby selectively stimulating the release of the appropriate hormone. However, “paradoxical” responses of AP cells to the four well-established HRHs have been observed repeatedly with both in vivo and in vitro systems, raising the possibility of functional overlap between the different AP cell types. To explore this possibility, we evaluated the effects of HRHs on [Ca2+]i in single AP cells identified immunocytochemically by the hormone they stored. We found that each of the five major AP cell types contained discrete subpopulations that were able to respond to several HRHs. The relative abundance of these multi-responsive cells was 59% for lactotropes, 33% for thyrotropes, and in the range of 47–55% for gonadotropes, corticotropes, and somatotropes. Analysis of prolactin release from single living cells revealed that each of the four HRHs tested were able to induce hormone release from a discrete lactotrope subpopulation, the size of which corresponded closely to that in which [Ca2+]i changes were induced by the same secretagogues. When viewed as a whole, our diverse functional measurements of multi-responsiveness suggest that hypothalamic control of pituitary function is more complicated than previously envisioned. Moreover, they provide a cellular basis for the so-called “paradoxical” behavior of pituitary cells to hypothalamic hypophysiotropic agents.

Sea lions, sacrifice, and ritual : The symbolism of Moche Island imagery

The Mochica, or Moche (c. 100-800 AD) culture, flourished along the northern Peruvian coast. The Moche did not have a formal written language; as such, contemporary scholars base their analysis on Moche iconography and archaeological burial remains. Especially renown for their ceramic artistry, Moche vessels exhibit a wide range of subject matter, including animal and enigmatic figural representations that evoke terrestrial, marine and possibly, spiritual realms. While research has focused on political organization and the interrelationship between sacrifice and warfare, many marine themes have not been fully explored in the discourse. An exploration of sea lion imagery and sacrifice themes suggests that the marine mammals were ritually hunted. A careful iconographic analysis of island scenes demonstrates ritual and gender affiliations held by the Moche about sea lions. In a multi-disciplinary approach, scientific, archaeological and ethnographic resources substantiate this claim.

The bear watches the dragon. The Russian debate on China. OSW Point of View Number 31, February 2013

Most participants in the Russian public debate seem to agree in their evaluation of the present condition of Russian-Chinese relations. There is awareness of increasing inequality between these two powers and Russia’s weakening position as compared to China.Those who share the optimistic view see co-operation with China as an opportunity for the Russian economy and a key element of Russia’s multi-directional foreign policy, an opportunity for Russia to avoid unilateral dependence on the West. The pessimists view the deepening co-operation with China through the prism of threats resulting from the increasing imbalance in bilateral relations. The greatest source of concern is the model of economic relations, which is often referred to as neo-colonial, where Russia’s role is reduced to that of a supplier of raw materials to China. The possible consequences are evaluated in different ways, ranging from the political subordination of Russian interests the Chinese ones to real loss of control over the Russian Far East. Those who share such views believe that Moscow should slow down its rapprochement with China and search for other partners in Eastern Asia, relations with whom could counterbalance the Chinese influence.

WINDOWS 10 IoT SU RASPBERRY PI 2: MULTI-PARADIGM PROGRAMMING TRA JAVA E C#

Questa tesi ha come obiettivo la sperimentazione del nuovo sistema operativo Windows 10 IoT Core su tecnologia Raspberry Pi 2, verificandone la compatibilita con alcuni sensori in commercio. Tale studio viene poi applicato in un contesto di Home Intelligence al fine di creare un agente per la gestione di luci LED, in prospettiva della sua integrazione nel sistema prototipale Home Manager.

Cooperative research and development agreement with Frandon Enterprises : development and evaluation of multi-media test kits for lead and other trace metals.

Mode of access: Internet.

GAO questions key aspects of FAA's plans to acquire the multi-billion dollar advanced automation system and related programs.

"B-206887."

Vehicles-in-use sub-limit maneuvers. Volume II: multi-vehicle test validation. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Vehicle Engineering Research Division, Washington, D.C.

Braking system performance of selected 1978 model year trucks and multi-purpose vehicles. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Development of a systems risk methodology for single and multi-modal transportation systems. Final report.

Transportation Department, Research and Special Programs Administration, Washington, D.C.

Smart cards for transit : multi-use remotely interrogated stored-data cards for fare and toll payment /

"FTA-MA-26-0020-95-1."

Yielding barrier test data base--a study of side impact cases in the multi-disciplinary accident investigation (MAI) file. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Dade County Trauma Task Force: a multi-system comparative analysis.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.