A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.

A capability framework visualisation for multiple heterogeneous UAVs : from a mission commander's perspective

There is an increased interested in Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations and research into advanced methods for commanding and controlling multiple heterogeneous UAVs. Research into areas of supervisory control has rapidly increased. Past research has investigated various approaches of autonomous control and operator limitation to improve mission commanders' Situation Awareness (SA) and cognitive workload. The aim of this paper is to address this challenge through a visualisation framework of UAV information constructed from Information Abstraction (IA). This paper presents the concept and process of IA, and the visualisation framework (constructed using IA), the concept associated with the Level Of Detail (LOD) indexing method, the visualisation of an example of the framework. Experiments will test the hypothesis that, the operator will be able to achieve increased SA and reduced cognitive load with the proposed framework.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Sharing environmental data : the role of an information policy framework and copyright licensing

Advances in information and communication technologies have brought about an information revolution, leading to fundamental changes in the way that information is collected or generated, shared and distributed. The importance of establishing systems in which research findings can be readily made available to and used by other researchers has long been recognized in international scientific collaborations. If the data access principles adopted by international scientific collaborations are to be effectively implemented they must be supported by the national policies and laws in place in the countries in which participating researchers are operating.

Optimising weed control by considering disturbance

Mounting scientific evidence suggests newly imposed disturbance and/or alterations to existing disturbances facilitate invasion. Several empirical studies have explored the role of disturbance in invasion, but little work has been done to fit current understanding into a format useful for practical control efforts. We are working towards addressing this shortcoming by developing a metapopulation model couched in a decision theory framework. This approach has allowed us to investigate how incorporating the negative effects of disturbance on native vegetation into decision-making can change optimal control measures. In this paper, we present some preliminary results.

The pedagogical, linguistic and content features of popular English language learning websites in China : a framework for analysis and design

As increasing numbers of Chinese language learners choose to learn English online (CNNIC, 2012), there is a need to investigate popular websites and their language learning designs. This paper reports on the first stage of a study that analysed the pedagogical, linguistic and content features of 25 Chinese English Language Learning (ELL) websites ranked according to their value and importance to users. The website ranking was undertaken using a system known as PageRank. The aim of the study was to identify the features characterising popular sites as opposed to those of less popular sites for the purpose of producing a framework for ELL website design in the Chinese context. The study found that a pedagogical focus with developmental instructional materials accommodating diverse proficiency levels was a major contributor to website popularity. Chinese language use for translations and teaching directives and intermediate level English for learning materials were also significant features. Content topics included Anglophone/Western and non-Anglophone/Eastern contexts. Overall, popular websites were distinguished by their mediation of access to and scaffolded support for ELL.

A framework for cost-aware process management : generation of accurate and timely management accounting cost reports

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency improvements for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables reporting of detailed cost of operations for decision making purpose, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Business process management is concerned with systematically documenting, managing, automating, and optimising processes. Process mining gives valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded by an IT system in the form of an event log with the focus on efficient utilisation of time and resources, although its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, we propose a framework to support management accounting decisions on cost control by automatically incorporating cost data with historical data from event logs for monitoring, predicting and reporting process-related costs. We also illustrate how accurate, relevant and timely management accounting style cost reports can be produced on demand by extending open-source process mining framework ProM.

Sustainable transportation development : a framework to determine transportation disadvantaged

Urban sprawl combined with low density development causes unsustainable development patterns including accessibility and mobility problems, especially for those who do not have the capacity to own a vehicle or access to quality public transport services. Sustainable transportation development is crucial in order to solve transport disadvantage problems in urban settlements. People who are affected by these problems are referred to as ‘transportation disadvantaged’. Transportation disadvantage is a multi-dimensional problem that combines socio-economics, transportation and spatial characteristics or dimensions. However, a substantial number of transportation disadvantage studies so far only focus on the socio-economic and transportation dimensions, while the latter dimension of transportation disadvantage has been neglected. This chapter investigates the spatial dimension of transportation disadvantage by comparing the travel capabilities of residents and their accessibility levels with land use characteristics. The analysis of the study identifies significant land use characteristics with travel inability, and is useful for identifying the transportation disadvantaged population.

Cultural factors affecting tertiary education access for Bundjalung men

Despite documented changes to mainstream educational systems, Indigenous educational achievements are still at critically low levels across all phases of formal education. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011) Indigenous students are still less likely than non-Indigenous students to complete their final years of schooling (45% compared with 77% in 2009); tertiary level entry and outcomes are also significantly lower than non-Indigenous entry and outcomes. Although significant research has focused on the area of Indigenous education, in particular, identifying and making recommendations on how to close educational gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, these studies have failed to bring about the change needed and to engage successfully with Indigenous communities and draw on Indigenous communities’ insights for best practice. This thesis focuses on Indigenous perspectives and takes a closer look at the cultural factors that impact on tertiary education access for Indigenous young men who come from a Bundjalung community on the far north coast of northern New South Wales. To date, this community has not been the focus of serious postgraduate study. Their experiences and the values and ideas of their community have not been investigated. To do this, the study uses an Indigenous methodological framework. It draws on Indigenous Standpoint Theory to analyse data through concepts of the cultural interface and tensions (Nakata, 2007, pp. 195-217). The study’s framing also draws on decolonising methods (Porsanger, 2004; Smith, 1999) and Indigenist research methods (Rigney, 1997). Such methodologies are intended to benefit both the research participants (community members) and the researcher. In doing so, the study draws on Creswell’s (2008) methods of restorying and retelling to analyse the participants’ interviews and yarns about their lives and experiences relating to tertiary educational access. The research process occurred in multiple stages: (1) selection of research sites, (2) granting of access which was requested through consultation with local Aboriginal Elders and through the local Aboriginal Lands Council, (3) conducting of interviews with participants/ data collection, (4) analysis of data, (5) documentation of findings, (6) theory development, and (7) reporting back to the nominated Indigenous community on the progress and findings of the research. The benefits of this research are numerous. First, this study addresses an issue that has been identified from within the local Aboriginal community as an issue of high precedence, looking at the cultural factors surrounding the underrepresentation of Indigenous people accessing tertiary education. This is not only of local significance but has been identified in the literature as a local, national and international area of concern amongst Indigenous peoples (Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2009; Herbert, 2010; King, 2011). Secondly, the study draws on local Indigenous knowledges and learning processes from within a Bundjalung community to gain inside perspectives, namely the cultural factors that are being expressed from a range of Indigenous community members – young men, community Elders and community members – and finding out what they perceive inhibit and/or promote tertiary education participation within their community. Such perspectives are rarely heard. Finally, recommendations made from this study are aimed at revealing investigative styles that may be utilised by Western institutions to improve access for Indigenous young men living in the Narlumdarlum1 region in the tertiary context.

Update on exercise and weight control

Recent analyses of population data reveal that obesity rates continue to rise, and are projected to reach unprecedented levels over the next decade 1. Despite concerted efforts to impede obesity progression, as of today, weight loss and weight maintenance strategies remain at best partially successful endeavours. Regardless of the observation that weight loss strategies can produce significant weight loss 2 and substantial improvements of the determinants of the metabolic risk profile 3, 4, it is clear that actual weight loss tends to be lower than the anticipated weight loss, and most individuals who achieve weight loss will likely regain some weight 5 and even overshoot 6 their pre-intervention body weight. As such, an improved understanding of the factors that contribute to lower than expected weight loss, and poor weight maintenance would improve the effectiveness of weight loss interventions.

Promotion and succession management and associated retention issues in Australian law firms

The focus of this research was promotion and succession management in Australian law firms. Two staff retention issues currently faced by the Australian legal industry were identified as suggesting possible failures in this area: 1) Practitioners are leaving law firms early in their careers, 2) Female representation is disproportionally low at partnership level. The research described current Australian law firm promotion and succession practices and then explained their possible relevance to the two retention issues. The overall aim of the research was to uncover key findings and present practical recommendations to law firm managers and partners ready for incorporation into their future promotion and succession planning practice. In so doing the research aimed to benefit the Australian legal community as a whole. Four areas of literature relevant to the topic were reviewed, 1) law firm governance concluding that the fundamental values of the P²-Form remained constant (Cooper, Hinings, Greenwood & Brown, 1996; Morris & Pinnington, 1998) with ownership and strategic control of law firms remaining in the hands of partners; 2) the importance of individual practitioners to law firms concluding that the actual and opportunity costs relating to practitioner turnover were significant due to the transient nature of knowledge as a key asset of law firms (Gottschalk & Khandelwal, 2004; Rebitzer & Taylor, 2007); 3) generational differences concluding with support for the work of Finegold, Mohrman and Spreitzer (2002), Davis, Pawlowski and Houston (2006), Kuhnreuther (2003), and Avery, McKay, and Wilson (2007) which indicated that generational cohort differences were of little utility in human resources management practice; and 4) previous research relating to law firm promotion and succession practices indicating that five practices were relevant in law firm promotion outcomes; 1) firm billing requirements (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004; Webley & Duff, 2007); 2) mentoring programs (Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004); 3) the existence of female partners (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Beckman & Phillips, 2005); 4) non-partner career paths (Phillips, 2001; Corcoran & Noonan, 2004); and 5) the existence of family friendly policies (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004; Webley & Duff, 2007.) The research was carried out via a sequential mixed method approach. The initial quantitative study was based upon a theoretical framework grounded in the literature and provided baseline information describing Australian law firm promotion and succession practices. The study was carried out via an on-line survey of Australian law firm practitioners. The results of the study provided the basis for the second qualitative study. The qualitative study further explained the statistically generated results and focused specifically on the two identified retention issues. The study was conducted via one-on-one interviews with Australian law firm partners and experienced law firm managers. The results of both studies were combined within the context of relevant literature resulting in eight key findings: Key findings 1) Organisational commitment levels across generational cohorts are more homogenous than different. 2) Law firm practitioners are leaving law firms early in their careers due to the heavy time commitment behaviour demanded of them, particularly by clients. 3) Law firm promotion and succession practices reinforce practitioner time commitment behaviour marking it as an indicator of practitioner success. 4) Law firm practitioners believe that they have many career options outside law firms and are considering these options. 5) Female practitioners are considering opting out of law firms due to time commitment demands related to partnership conflicting with family commitment demands. 6) A masculine, high time commitment culture in law firms is related to the decision by female practitioners to leave law firms. 7) The uptake of alternative work arrangements by female practitioners is not fatal to their partnership prospects particularly in firms with supportive policies, processes and organisational culture. 8) Female practitioners are less inclined than their male counterparts to seek partnership as an ultimate goal and are more likely to opt out of law firms exhibiting highly competitive, masculine cultures. Practical recommendations Further review of the data collected in relation to the key findings provided the basis for nine practical recommendations specifically geared towards implementation by law firm managers and partners. The first recommendation relates to the use of generational differences in practitioner management. The next six relate to recommended actions to reduce the time commitment demands on practitioners. The final two recommendations relate to the practical implementation of these actions both at an individual and organisational level. The recommendations are as follows: 1) "Generationally driven," age based generalisations should not be utilised in law firm promotion and succession management practice. 2) Expected levels of client access to practitioners be negotiated on a client by client basis and be included in client retention agreements. 3) Appropriate alternative working arrangements such as working off-site, flexible working hours or part-time work be offered to practitioners in situations where doing so will not compromise client serviceability. 4) The copying of long working hour behaviours of senior practitioners should be discouraged particularly where information technology can facilitate remote client serviceability. 5) Refocus the use of timesheets from an employer monitoring tool to an employee empowerment tool. 6) Policies and processes relating to the offer of alternative working arrangements be supported and reinforced by law firm organisational culture. 7) Requests for alternative working arrangements be determined without regard to gender. 8) Incentives and employment conditions offered to practitioners to be individualised based on the subjective need of the individual and negotiated as a part of the current employee performance review process. 9) Individually negotiated employment conditions be negotiated within the context of the firm’s overall strategic planning process. Through the conduct of the descripto-explanatory study, a detailed discussion of current law firm promotion and succession practices was enabled. From this discussion, 7 eight key findings and nine associated recommendations were generated as well as an insight into the future of the profession being given. The key findings and recommendations provide practical advice to law firm managers and partners in relation to their everyday promotion and succession practice. The need to negotiate individual employee workplace conditions and their integration into overall law firm business planning was put forward. By doing so, it was suggested that both the individual employee and the employing law firm would mutually benefit from the arrangement. The study therefore broadened its practical contribution from human resources management to a contribution to the overall management practice of Australian law firms. In so doing, the research has provided an encompassing contribution to the Australian legal industry both in terms of employee welfare as well as firm and industry level success.

Why do policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation? An economic analysis with special reference to Sri Lanka

This chapter examines why policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation despite the availability of a plethora of market-based instruments which are more efficient and cost-effective. Interestingly, Sri Lanka has adopted a wholly command and control system, during both the pre and post liberalisation economic policies. This chapter first examines the merits and demerits of command and control and market-based approaches and then looks at Sri Lanka’s extensive environmental regulatory framework. The chapter then examines the likely reasons as to why the country has gone down the path of inflexible regulatory measures and has become entrenched in them. The various hypotheses are discussed and empirical evidence is provided. The chapter also discusses the consequences of an environmentally slack economy and policy implications stemming from adopting a wholly regulatory approach. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the main results.

Using the Donabedian framework to examine the quality and safety of nursing service innovation

Aims and objectives To evaluate the safety and quality of nurse practitioner service using the audit framework of Structure,Process and Outcome. Background Health service and workforce reform are on the agenda of governments and other service providers seeking to contain healthcare costs whilst providing safe and effective health care to communities. The nurse practitioner service is one health workforce innovation that has been adopted globally to improve timely access to clinical care, but there is scant literature reporting evaluation of the quality of this service innovation. Design. A mixed-methods design within the Donabedian evaluation framework was used. Methods The Donabedian framework was used to evaluate the Structure, Process and Outcome of nurse practitioner service. A range of data collection approaches was used, including stakeholder survey (n=36), in-depth interviews (11 patients and 13 nurse practitioners) and health records data on service processes. Results The study identified that adequate and detailed preparation of Structure and Process is essential for the successful implementation of a service innovation. The multidisciplinary team was accepting of the addition of nurse practitioner service, and nurse practitioner clinical care was shown to be effective, satisfactory and safe from the perspective of the clinician stakeholders and patients. Conclusions This study demonstrated that the Donabedian framework of Structure, Process and Outcome evaluation is a valuable and validated approach to examine the safety and quality of a service innovation. Furthermore, in this study, specific Structure elements were shown to influence the quality of service processes further validating the framework and the interdependence of the Structure, Process and Outcome components. Relevance to clinical practice Understanding the structure and process requirements for establishing nursing service innovation lays the foundation for safe, effective and patient-centred clinical care.

Recruiting and engaging new mothers in nutrition research studies : lessons from the Australian NOURISH randomised controlled trial

Background: Despite important implications for the budgets, statistical power and generalisability of research findings, detailed reports of recruitment and retention in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are rare. The NOURISH RCT evaluated a community-based intervention for first-time mothers that promoted protective infant feeding practices as a primary prevention strategy for childhood obesity. The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed description and evaluation of the recruitment and retention strategies used. Methods: A two stage recruitment process designed to provide a consecutive sampling framework was used. First time mothers delivering healthy term infants were initially approached in postnatal wards of the major maternity services in two Australian cities for consent to later contact (Stage 1). When infants were about four months old mothers were re-contacted by mail for enrolment (Stage 2), baseline measurements (Time 1) and subsequent random allocation to the intervention or control condition. Outcomes were assessed at infant ages 14 months (Time 2) and 24 months (Time 3). Results: At Stage 1, 86% of eligible mothers were approached and of these women, 76% consented to later contact. At Stage 2, 3% had become ineligible and 76% could be recontacted. Of the latter, 44% consented to full enrolment and were allocated. This represented 21% of mothers screened as eligible at Stage 1. Retention at Time 3 was 78%. Mothers who did not consent or discontinued the study were younger and less likely to have a university education. Conclusions: The consent and retention rates of our sample of first time mothers are comparable with or better than other similar studies. The recruitment strategy used allowed for detailed information from non-consenters to be collected; thus selection bias could be estimated. Recommendations for future studies include being able to contact participants via mobile phone (particular text messaging), offering home visits to reduce participant burden and considering the use of financial incentives to support participant retention.

MAVwork : a framework for unified interfacing between micro aerial vehicles and visual controllers

Debugging control software for Micro Aerial Vehicles (MAV) can be risky out of the simulator, especially with professional drones that might harm people around or result in a high bill after a crash. We have designed a framework that enables a software application to communicate with multiple MAVs from a single unified interface. In this way, visual controllers can be first tested on a low-cost harmless MAV and, after safety is guaranteed, they can be moved to the production MAV at no additional cost. The framework is based on a distributed architecture over a network. This allows multiple configurations, like drone swarms or parallel processing of drones' video streams. Live tests have been performed and the results show comparatively low additional communication delays, while adding new functionalities and flexibility. This implementation is open-source and can be downloaded from github.com/uavster/mavwork