Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying user perception of foodstuffs using THz spectrometry

We discuss the potential of using THz spectrometry for the direct observation of phase transitions in foodstuffs, with the aim of quantifying consumer perception. Experimental results from phase transitions using a continuous wave dispersive Fourier transform spectrometer and a cyclotron enhanced liquid helium cooled bolometric detector are reported.

A framework for the forensic analysis of user interaction with social media

The increasing use of social media, applications or platforms that allow users to interact online, ensures that this environment will provide a useful source of evidence for the forensics examiner. Current tools for the examination of digital evidence find this data problematic as they are not designed for the collection and analysis of online data. Therefore, this paper presents a framework for the forensic analysis of user interaction with social media. In particular, it presents an inter-disciplinary approach for the quantitative analysis of user engagement to identify relational and temporal dimensions of evidence relevant to an investigation. This framework enables the analysis of large data sets from which a (much smaller) group of individuals of interest can be identified. In this way, it may be used to support the identification of individuals who might be ‘instigators’ of a criminal event orchestrated via social media, or a means of potentially identifying those who might be involved in the ‘peaks’ of activity. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework, this paper applies it to a case study of actors posting to a social media Web site.

Focusing the kaleidoscope: investigating the newly formed role of 'Academic Lead’ at a research-led University

Now, more than ever, higher education institutions are reflecting on the need for flexible leadership models to help adapt to the fast changing academic environment. Rapid shifts in the sector are contributing to a kaleidoscopic ‘supercomplexity’ of challenges, structures, processes and value frameworks for academics who lead and for those who are led. How are institutions’ leadership structures and roles developing in response to these changes? And how do these responses affect academic staff in relation to their identity, status and career trajectory? This paper reports on a Leadership Foundation funded research project exploring the ways in which one UK institution has implemented a new ‘distributed’ leadership model. Crucially, the project examines the impact of the model on both those who are leaders and those being led.

Economic transformation in Ghana: where will the path lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sectoral transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agroprocessing, the emergence of consumption cities and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Higher Education: Understanding the impact of distance learning mode on user information assimilation and satisfaction

There is increasing pressure to capture of video within Higher Education. Although much research has looked at how communication technologies enhance information transfer during playback of video, consideration of technical issues seems incongruous if we do not consider how presentation mode affects information assimilated by, and satisfaction of, learners with a range of individual differences, and from a range of different backgrounds. This paper considers whether a relationship exists between the media and presentation mode used in recorded content, and the level of information assimilation and satisfaction perceived by learners with a range of individual differences. Results aim to inform learning practitioners whether generic delivery is justified, or whether tailoring content delivery enhances the experience of specific learner groups.

CP-OQAM-OFDM based SC-FDMA: adjustable user bandwidth and space-time coding

The discrete Fourier transmission spread OFDM DFTS-OFDM) based single-carrier frequency division multiple access (SC-FDMA) has been widely adopted due to its lower peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) of transmit signals compared with OFDM. However, the offset modulation, which has lower PAPR than general modulation, cannot be directly applied into the existing SC-FDMA. When pulse-shaping filters are employed to further reduce the envelope fluctuation of transmit signals of SC-FDMA, the spectral efficiency degrades as well. In order to overcome such limitations of conventional SC-FDMA, this paper for the first time investigated cyclic prefixed OQAMOFDM (CP-OQAM-OFDM) based SC-FDMA transmission with adjustable user bandwidth and space-time coding. Firstly, we propose CP-OQAM-OFDM transmission with unequally-spaced subbands. We then apply it to SC-FDMA transmission and propose a SC-FDMA scheme with the following features: a) the transmit signal of each user is offset modulated single-carrier with frequency-domain pulse-shaping; b) the bandwidth of each user is adjustable; c) the spectral efficiency does not decrease with increasing roll-off factors. To combat both inter-symbolinterference and multiple access interference in frequencyselective fading channels, a joint linear minimum mean square error frequency domain equalization using a prior information with low complexity is developed. Subsequently, we construct space-time codes for the proposed SC-FDMA. Simulation results confirm the powerfulness of the proposed CP-OQAM-OFDM scheme (i.e., effective yet with low complexity).

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

An investigation into the viability of LibraryThing for promotional and user engagement purposes in libraries

Structured abstract: Purpose: LibraryThing is a Web 2.0 tool allowing users to catalogue books using data drawn from sources such as Amazon and the Library of Congress and has facilities such as tagging and interest groups. This study evaluates whether LibraryThing is a valuable tool for libraries to use for promotional and user engagement purposes. Methodology: This study used a sequential mixed methods 3 phase design: (1) the identification of LibraryThing features for user engagement or promotional purposes, (2) exploratory semi-structured interviews (3) a questionnaire. Findings: Several uses of LibraryThing for promotional and user engagement purposes were identified. The most popular reason libraries used LibraryThing was to promote the library or library stock, with most respondents using it specifically to highlight collections of books. Monitoring of patron usage was low and many respondents had not received any feedback. LibraryThing was commonly reported as being easy to use, remotely accessible, and having low cost, whilst its main drawbacks were the 200 book limit for free accounts, and it being a third-party site. The majority of respondents felt LibraryThing was a useful tool for libraries. Practical implications: LibraryThing has most value as a promotional tool for libraries. Libraries should actively monitor patron usage of their LibraryThing account or request user feedback to ensure that LibraryThing provides a truly valuable service for their library. Orginality : There is little research on the value of LibraryThing for libraries, or librarians perceptions of LibraryThing as a Web 2.0 tool.

User-friendly free-text keystroke dynamics authentication for practical applications

This paper introduces a novel approach for free-text keystroke dynamics authentication which incorporates the use of the keyboard’s key-layout. The method extracts timing features from specific key-pairs. The Euclidean distance is then utilized to find the level of similarity between a user’s profile data and his/her test data. The results obtained from this method are reasonable for free-text authentication while maintaining the maximum level of user relaxation. Moreover, it has been proven in this study that flight time yields better authentication results when compared with dwell time. In particular, the results were obtained with only one training sample for the purpose of practicality and ease of real life application.

NeuroHub: a research information environment for neuroscientists

The NeuroHub project aims to develop a research information system for neuroscientists at three different partner institutions: Oxford, Reading and Southampton. Each research group has different working practices, research methodologies and user requirements, which have lead to the development of a system that supports a wide variety of tasks in the neuroscience research life cycle. In this paper, we present how these user requirements have been translated in a research information environment that supports a community of over 70 researchers using the system for day-to-day research tasks.

Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

An alternative approach to investigating lead-lag relationships between stock and stock index futures markets

In the absence of market frictions, the cost-of-carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. It is argued that traditional tests, which assume that the underlying data generating process is constant, might be prone to overstate the lead-lag relationship. Using a new test for lead-lag relationships based on cross correlations and cross bicorrelations it is found that, contrary to results from using the traditional methodology, periods where the futures market leads the cash market are few and far between and when any lead-lag relationship is detected, it does not last long. Overall, the results are consistent with the prediction of the standard cost-of-carry model and market efficiency.