(Table 1) Experimental shear strength values for IODP Exp315 and Exp316 holes

We investigate the mechanics of slope failures on the Nankai accretionary complex offshore Japan in the vicinity of a major out-of-sequence thrust fault (termed the "megasplay"). Incorporating laboratory-measured shear strength of slope sediments sampled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expeditions 315 and 316 with local seafloor slope angles from bathymetric data and constraints on in-situ effective stress conditions from drilling, we find that slopes in the study area are stable and submarine landslides are not expected to occur under static conditions. In order to assess the possibility of slope failure triggered by coseismic rupture of the megasplay fault, we use empirical relations for strong ground motion attenuation from earthquakes with Mw 6-9. We find that the slope sediments should be stable based on computations from one model, developed from a catalog of worldwide subduction zone earthquakes (Youngs et al., 1997, doi:10.1785/gssrl.68.1.58). However, using a different model developed primarily from a catalog of crustal earthquakes in Japan (Kanno et al., 2006, doi:10.1785/0120050138), we find that slopes should be unstable for earthquakes 8 <= Mw <= 9, and possibly unstable for events with 6 <= Mw < 8, depending on the proximity of rupture to the seafloor. Considering limitations of the models and geologic observations of slope failure recurrence, the true slope stability is likely to be in between the predictions of the two models, and we suggest that it may be modulated by long-term pore pressure fluctuations.

AMS 14C and calibrated ages of sediment core GeoB10426-1

Newly acquired bathymetric and seismic reflection data have revealed mass-transport deposits (MTDs) on the northeastern Cretan margin in the active Hellenic subduction zone. These include a stack of two submarine landslides within the Malia Basin with a total volume of approximately 4.6 km**3 covering an area of about 135 km**2. These two MTDs have different geometry, internal deformations and transport structures. The older and stratigraphic lower MTD is interpreted as a debrite that fills a large part of the Malia Basin, while the second, younger MTD, with an age of at least 12.6 cal. ka B.P., indicate a thick, lens-shaped, partially translational landslide. This MTD comprises multiple slide masses with internal structure varying from highly deformed to nearly undeformed. The reconstructed source area of the older MTD is located in the westernmost Malia Basin. The source area of the younger MTD is identified in multiple headwalls at the slope-basin-transition in 450 m water depth. Numerous faults with an orientation almost parallel to the southwest-northeast-trending basin axis occur along the northern and southern boundaries of the Malia Basin and have caused a partial steepening of the slope-basin-transition. The possible triggers for slope failure and mass-wasting include (i) seismicity and (ii) movement of the uplifting island of Crete from neotectonics of the Hellenic subduction zone, and (iii) slip of clay-mineral-rich or ash-bearing layers during fluid involvement.

A numerical model for predicting the effects of landslide-generated water waves /

Final report.