Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion

We propose a stage-structured integrodifference model for blowflies' growth and dispersion taking into account the density dependence of fertility and survival rates and the non-overlap of generations. We assume a discrete-time, stage-structured, model. The spatial dynamics is introduced by means of a redistribution kernel. We treat one and two dimensional cases, the latter on the semi-plane, with a reflexive boundary. We analytically show that the upper bound for the invasion front speed is the same as in the one-dimensional case. Using laboratory data for fertility and survival parameters and dispersal data of a single generation from a capture-recapture experiment in South Africa, we obtain an estimate for the velocity of invasion of blowflies of the species Chrysomya albiceps. This model predicts a speed of invasion which was compared to actual observational data for the invasion of the focal species in the Neotropics. Good agreement was found between model and observations.

Use of pulse pressure variation to estimate changes in preload during experimental acute normovolemic hemodilution

Background. Acute normovolemic hemodilution (ANH) is an alternative to blood transfusion in surgeries involving blood loss. This experimental study was designed to evaluate whether pulse pressure variation (PPV) would be an adequate tool for monitoring changes in preload during ANH, as assessed by transesophageal echocardiography. Methods. Twenty-one anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were randomized into three groups: CTL (control), HES (hemodilution with 6% hydroxyethyl starch at a 1:1 ratio) or NS (hemodilution with saline 0.9% at a 3:1 ratio). Hemodilution was performed in animals of groups NS and HES in two stages, with target hematocrits 22% and 15%, achieved at 30-minute intervals. After two hours, 50% of the blood volume withdrawn was transfused and animals were monitored for another hour. Statistical analysis was based on ANOVA for repeated measures followed by multiple comparison test (P<0.05). Pearson's correlations were performed between changes in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV) and PPV, central venous pressure (CVP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP). Results. Group NS received a significantly greater amount of fluids during ANH (NS, 900 +/- 168 mL vs. HES, 200 +/- 50 mL, P<0.05) and presented greater urine output (NS, 2643 +/- 1097mL vs. HES, 641 +/- 338mL, P<0.001). Significant decreases in LVEDV were observed in group NS from completion of ANH until transfusion. In group HES, only increases in LVEDV were observed, at the end of ANH and at transfusion. Such changes in LVEDV (Delta LVEDV) were better reflected by changes in PPV (Delta PPV, R=-0.62) than changes in CVP (Delta CVP R=0.32) or in PAOP (Delta PAOP, R=0.42, respectively). Conclusion. Changes in preload during ANH were detected by changes in PPV. Delta PPV was superior to Delta PAOP and Delta CVP to this end. (Minerva Anestesiol 2012;78:426-33)

Use of recent geoid models to estimate mean dynamic topography and geostrophic currents in South Atlantic and Brazil Malvinas confluence

The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

The use of severity indexes to estimate the risk of death in Intensive Care

The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) are instruments used to classify Intensive Care Unit (ICU) inpatients according to the severity of their condition and risk of death, and evaluate the quality of nursing care. The objective of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of SAPS II and LODS to predict the mortality of patients admitted to the ICU. The participants were 600 patients from four ICUs located in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the performance of the indexes. Results: The areas under the ROC curves of LODS (0.69) and SAPS II (0.71) indicated moderate discriminatory capacity to identify death or survival. No statistically significant differences were found between these areas (p=0.26). In conclusion, there was equivalence between SAPS II and LODS to estimate the risk of death of ICU patients.

An estimate on the fractal dimension of attractors of gradient-like dynamical systems

This paper is dedicated to estimate the fractal dimension of exponential global attractors of some generalized gradient-like semigroups in a general Banach space in terms of the maximum of the dimension of the local unstable manifolds of the isolated invariant sets, Lipschitz properties of the semigroup and the rate of exponential attraction. We also generalize this result for some special evolution processes, introducing a concept of Morse decomposition with pullback attractivity. Under suitable assumptions, if (A, A*) is an attractor-repeller pair for the attractor A of a semigroup {T(t) : t >= 0}, then the fractal dimension of A can be estimated in terms of the fractal dimension of the local unstable manifold of A*, the fractal dimension of A, the Lipschitz properties of the semigroup and the rate of the exponential attraction. The ingredients of the proof are the notion of generalized gradient-like semigroups and their regular attractors, Morse decomposition and a fine analysis of the structure of the attractors. As we said previously, we generalize this result for some evolution processes using the same basic ideas. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimate of corrected values and the effect of correction for measurement error in dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (AFFQ)

The scope of this study was to estimate calibrated values for dietary data obtained by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) and illustrate the effect of this approach on food consumption data. The adolescents were assessed on two occasions, with an average interval of twelve months. In 2004, 393 adolescents participated, and 289 were then reassessed in 2005. Dietary data obtained by the FFQA were calibrated using the regression coefficients estimated from the average of two 24-hour recalls (24HR) of the subsample. The calibrated values were similar to the the 24HR reference measurement in the subsample. In 2004 and 2005 a significant difference was observed between the average consumption levels of the FFQA before and after calibration for all nutrients. With the use of calibrated data the proportion of schoolchildren who had fiber intake below the recommended level increased. Therefore, it is seen that calibrated data can be used to obtain adjusted associations due to reclassification of subjects within the predetermined categories.

An inverse method to estimate the moving heat source in machining process

The present work propounds an inverse method to estimate the heat sources in the transient two-dimensional heat conduction problem in a rectangular domain with convective bounders. The non homogeneous partial differential equation (PDE) is solved using the Integral Transform Method. The test function for the heat generation term is obtained by the chip geometry and thermomechanical cutting. Then the heat generation term is estimated by the conjugated gradient method (CGM) with adjoint problem for parameter estimation. The experimental trials were organized to perform six different conditions to provide heat sources of different intensities. This method was compared with others in the literature and advantages are discussed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the food frequency consumption essential as covariate to estimate usual intake of episodically consumed foods?

BACKGROUNDS/OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to verify the performance of the frequency of consumption as variable for prediction of the usual intakes of foods. SUBJECTS/METHODS: In total, 725 individuals who answered two nonconsecutive 24-h recall and one food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in the 'Healthy Survey-Sao Paulo-Brazil'. An additional indicator variable indicating if one is usual consumer was created before analyzing. The Multiple Source Method and National Cancer Institute method were used to estimate usual intake of selected food considering different models of prediction: with no covariates; with FFQ; with FFQ plus indicator variable; and with only indicator variable. RESULTS: For foods that are consumed every day or almost every day, the inclusion of the FFQ and/or the indicator variable as covariates resulted in similar percentiles of consumption when compared with the model with no covariates. For episodically consumed foods, the models with FFQ plus indicator variable and with only indicator variable estimated similar percentiles of intake. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the indicator variable instead the FFQ appears as a good alternative to estimate usual intake of episodically consumed foods.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

A MODIS-Based Energy Balance to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Clear-Sky Days in Brazilian Tropical Savannas

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in global climate dynamics and in primary production of terrestrial ecosystems; it represents the mass and energy transfer from the land to atmosphere. Limitations to measuring ET at large scales using ground-based methods have motivated the development of satellite remote sensing techniques. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the accuracy of the SEBAL algorithm for estimating surface turbulent heat fluxes at regional scale, using 28 images from MODIS. SEBAL estimates are compared with eddy-covariance (EC) measurements and results from the hydrological model MGB-IPH. SEBAL instantaneous estimates of latent heat flux (LE) yielded r(2) = 0.64 and r(2) = 0.62 over sugarcane croplands and savannas when compared against in situ EC estimates. At the same sites, daily aggregated estimates of LE were r(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.66, respectively. Energy balance closure showed that turbulent fluxes over sugarcane croplands were underestimated by 7% and 9% over savannas. Average daily ET from SEBAL is in close agreement with estimates from the hydrological model for an overlay of 38,100 km(2) (r(2) = 0.88). Inputs to which the algorithm is most sensitive are vegetation index (NDVI), gradient of temperature (dT) to compute sensible heat flux (H) and net radiation (Re). It was verified that SEBAL has a tendency to overestimate results both at local and regional scales probably because of low sensitivity to soil moisture and water stress. Nevertheless the results confirm the potential of the SEBAL algorithm, when used with MODIS images for estimating instantaneous LE and daily ET from large areas.

Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age-Brazilian indices

Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic analysis of kernel oil content in tropical maize with design III and QTL mapping

Oil content and grain yield in maize are negatively correlated, and so far the development of high-oil high-yielding hybrids has not been accomplished. Then a fully understand of the inheritance of the kernel oil content is necessary to implement a breeding program to improve both traits simultaneously. Conventional and molecular marker analyses of the design III were carried out from a reference population developed from two tropical inbred lines divergent for kernel oil content. The results showed that additive variance was quite larger than the dominance variance, and the heritability coefficient was very high. Sixteen QTL were mapped, they were not evenly distributed along the chromosomes, and accounted for 30.91% of the genetic variance. The average level of dominance computed from both conventional and QTL analysis was partial dominance. The overall results indicated that the additive effects were more important than the dominance effects, the latter were not unidirectional and then heterosis could not be exploited in crosses. Most of the favorable alleles of the QTL were in the high-oil parental inbred, which could be transferred to other inbreds via marker-assisted backcross selection. Our results coupled with reported information indicated that the development of high-oil hybrids with acceptable yields could be accomplished by using marker-assisted selection involving oil content, grain yield and its components. Finally, to exploit the xenia effect to increase even more the oil content, these hybrids should be used in the Top Cross((TM)) procedure.

Interpolation estimate for a finite-element space with embedded discontinuities

We consider a recently proposed finite-element space that consists of piecewise affine functions with discontinuities across a smooth given interface Γ (a curve in two dimensions, a surface in three dimensions). Contrary to existing extended finite element methodologies, the space is a variant of the standard conforming Formula space that can be implemented element by element. Further, it neither introduces new unknowns nor deteriorates the sparsity structure. It is proved that, for u arbitrary in Formula, the interpolant Formula defined by this new space satisfies Graphic where h is the mesh size, Formula is the domain, Formula, Formula, Formula and standard notation has been adopted for the function spaces. This result proves the good approximation properties of the finite-element space as compared to any space consisting of functions that are continuous across Γ, which would yield an error in the Formula-norm of order Graphic. These properties make this space especially attractive for approximating the pressure in problems with surface tension or other immersed interfaces that lead to discontinuities in the pressure field. Furthermore, the result still holds for interfaces that end within the domain, as happens for example in cracked domains.

Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces associated with kernels on topological spaces

We analyze reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces of positive definite kernels on a topological space X being either first countable or locally compact. The results include versions of Mercer's theorem and theorems on the embedding of these spaces into spaces of continuous and square integrable functions.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7