企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.

Curriculum: directions, decisions and debate.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the factors which may effect, stimulate or be the cause of curriculum changes in higher education (HE) in Scotland. This overview leads to a series of questions which could be used to encourage debate within and across institutions on strategic developments, which may enhance and inform the development of and support for the curriculum. The paper will begin by offering a definition of the term 'curriculum' before identifying the current areas of influence on how the curriculum, in its broadest sense, is shaped and delivered. This paper will provide an outline of some of the different approaches to the design and delivery of the curriculum which enhance the student experience in Scottish higher education, but which will of course have a wider relevance to HE in the UK and perhaps beyond.

Investment funds: What next?

Investment funds provide a low cost method of sharing in the rewards from capitalism. Recently “alternative investments” such as hedge funds have grown rapidly and the trading strategies open to hedge funds are now becoming available to mutual funds and even to ordinary retail investors. In this paper we analyze problems in assessing fund performance and the prospects for investment fund sectors. Choosing genuine outperformers among top funds requires a careful assessment of non-normality, order statistics and the possibility of false discoveries. The risk adjusted performance of the average hedge fund over the last 10-15 is actually not that impressive, although the “top” funds do appear to have statistically significant positive alphas.

Investment incentives and valuation of power sector infrastructure assets with increasing interconnection, intermittency and decarbonisation

This dissertation applies a variety of quantitative methods to electricity and carbon market data, utility company accounts data, capital and operating costs to analyse some of the challenges associated with investment in energy assets. In particular, three distinct research topics are analysed within this general theme: the efficiency of interconnector trading, the optimal sizing of intermittent wind facilities and the impact of carbon pricing on the cost of capital for investors are researched in successive sections.

The financial storms in Vietnam's transition economy: a reasoning on the 1991-2008 period

This study focuses on those substantial changes that characterize the shift of Vietnam’s macroeconomic structures and evolution of micro-structural interaction over an important period of 1991-2008. The results show that these events are completely distinct in terms of (i) Economic nature; (ii) Scale and depth of changes; (iii) Start and end results; and, (iv) Requirement for macroeconomic decisions. The study rejected a suspicion of similarity between the contagion of the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 and economic chaos in the first half of 2008 (starting from late 2007). The depth, economic settings of, and interconnection between macro choices and micro decisions have all grown up significantly, partly due to a much deeper level of integration of Vietnam into the world’s economy. On the one hand, this phenomenon gives rise to efficiency of macro level policies because the consideration of micro-structural factors within the framework has definitely become increasingly critical. On the other and, this is a unique opportunity for the macroeconomic mechanism of Vietnam to improve vastly, given the context in which the national economy entered an everchanging period under pressures of globalization and re-integration. The authors hope to also open up paths for further empirical verifications and to stress on the fact that macro policies will have, from now on, to be decided in line with changing micro-settings, which specify a market economy and decide the degree of success of any macroeconomic choices.

Agglomeration effects in foreign direct investment and the pollution haven hypothesis

Does environmental regulation impair international competitiveness of pollution-intensive industries to the extent that they relocate to countries with less stringent regulation, turning those countries into "pollution havens"? We test this hypothesis using panel data on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows of various industries in the German manufacturing sector and account for several econometric issues that have been ignored in previous studies. Most importantly, we demonstrate that externalities associated with FDI agglomeration can bias estimates away from finding a pollution haven effect if omitted from the analysis. We include the stock of inward FDI as a proxy for agglomeration and employ a GMM estimator to control for endogenous time-varying determinants of FDI flows. Furthermore, we propose a difference estimator based on the least polluting industry to break the possible correlation between environmental regulatory stringency and unobservable attributes of FDI recipients in the cross-section. When accounting for these issues we find robust evidence of a pollution haven effect for the chemical industry. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Reference groups and product line decisions: An experimental investigation of limited editions and product proliferation

Some luxury goods manufacturers offer limited editions of their products, whereas some others market multiple product lines. Researchers have found that reference groups shape consumer evaluations of these product categories. Yet little empirical research has examined how reference groups affect the product line decisions of firms. Indeed, in a field setting it is quite a challenge to isolate reference group effects from contextual effects and correlated effects. In this paper, we propose a parsimonious model that allows us to study how reference groups influence firm behavior and that lends itself to experimental analysis. With the aid of the model we investigate the behavior of consumers in a laboratory setting where we can focus on the reference group effects after controlling for the contextual and correlated effects. The experimental results show that in the presence of strong reference group effects, limited editions and multiple products can help improve firms' profits. Furthermore, the trends in the purchase decisions of our participants point to the possibility that they are capable of introspecting close to two steps of thinking at the outset of the game and then learning through reinforcement mechanisms. © 2010 INFORMS.

Information programs for technology adoption: The case of energy-efficiency audits

We analyze technology adoption decisions of manufacturing plants in response to government-sponsored energy audits. Overall, plants adopt about half of the recommended energy-efficiency projects. Using fixed effects logit estimation, we find that adoption rates are higher for projects with shorter paybacks, lower costs, greater annual savings, higher energy prices, and greater energy conservation. Plants are 40% more responsive to initial costs than annual savings, suggesting that subsidies may be more effective at promoting energy-efficient technologies than energy price increases. Adoption decisions imply hurdle rates of 50-100%, which is consistent with the investment criteria small and medium-size firms state they use. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a decision aid to inform patients' and families' renal replacement therapy selection decisions.

BACKGROUND: Few educational resources have been developed to inform patients' renal replacement therapy (RRT) selection decisions. Patients progressing toward end stage renal disease (ESRD) must decide among multiple treatment options with varying characteristics. Complex information about treatments must be adequately conveyed to patients with different educational backgrounds and informational needs. Decisions about treatment options also require family input, as families often participate in patients' treatment and support patients' decisions. We describe the development, design, and preliminary evaluation of an informational, evidence-based, and patient-and family-centered decision aid for patients with ESRD and varying levels of health literacy, health numeracy, and cognitive function. METHODS: We designed a decision aid comprising a complementary video and informational handbook. We based our development process on data previously obtained from qualitative focus groups and systematic literature reviews. We simultaneously developed the video and handbook in "stages." For the video, stages included (1) directed interviews with culturally appropriate patients and families and preliminary script development, (2) video production, and (3) screening the video with patients and their families. For the handbook, stages comprised (1) preliminary content design, (2) a mixed-methods pilot study among diverse patients to assess comprehension of handbook material, and (3) screening the handbook with patients and their families. RESULTS: The video and handbook both addressed potential benefits and trade-offs of treatment selections. The 50-minute video consisted of demographically diverse patients and their families describing their positive and negative experiences with selecting a treatment option. The video also incorporated health professionals' testimonials regarding various considerations that might influence patients' and families' treatment selections. The handbook was comprised of written words, pictures of patients and health care providers, and diagrams describing the findings and quality of scientific studies comparing treatments. The handbook text was written at a 4th to 6th grade reading level. Pilot study results demonstrated that a majority of patients could understand information presented in the handbook. Patient and families screening the nearly completed video and handbook reviewed the materials favorably. CONCLUSIONS: This rigorously designed decision aid may help patients and families make informed decisions about their treatment options for RRT that are well aligned with their values.

Effect of primary care physicians' use of estimated glomerular filtration rate on the timing of their subspecialty referral decisions.

BACKGROUND: Primary care providers' suboptimal recognition of the severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may contribute to untimely referrals of patients with CKD to subspecialty care. It is unknown whether U.S. primary care physicians' use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) rather than serum creatinine to estimate CKD severity could improve the timeliness of their subspecialty referral decisions. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 154 United States primary care physicians to assess the effect of use of eGFR (versus creatinine) on the timing of their subspecialty referrals. Primary care physicians completed a questionnaire featuring questions regarding a hypothetical White or African American patient with progressing CKD. We asked primary care physicians to identify the serum creatinine and eGFR levels at which they would recommend patients like the hypothetical patient be referred for subspecialty evaluation. We assessed significant improvement in the timing [from eGFR < 30 to ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73m(2)) of their recommended referrals based on their use of creatinine versus eGFR. RESULTS: Primary care physicians recommended subspecialty referrals later (CKD more advanced) when using creatinine versus eGFR to assess kidney function [median eGFR 32 versus 55 mL/min/1.73m(2), p < 0.001]. Forty percent of primary care physicians significantly improved the timing of their referrals when basing their recommendations on eGFR. Improved timing occurred more frequently among primary care physicians practicing in academic (versus non-academic) practices or presented with White (versus African American) hypothetical patients [adjusted percentage(95% CI): 70% (45-87) versus 37% (reference) and 57% (39-73) versus 25% (reference), respectively, both p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physicians recommended subspecialty referrals earlier when using eGFR (versus creatinine) to assess kidney function. Enhanced use of eGFR by primary care physicians' could lead to more timely subspecialty care and improved clinical outcomes for patients with CKD.

The providing resources to enhance African American patients' readiness to make decisions about kidney disease (PREPARED) study: protocol of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Living related kidney transplantation (LRT) is underutilized, particularly among African Americans. The effectiveness of informational and financial interventions to enhance informed decision-making among African Americans with end stage renal disease (ESRD) and improve rates of LRT is unknown. METHODS/DESIGN: We report the protocol of the Providing Resources to Enhance African American Patients' Readiness to Make Decisions about Kidney Disease (PREPARED) Study, a two-phase study utilizing qualitative and quantitative research methods to design and test the effectiveness of informational (focused on shared decision-making) and financial interventions to overcome barriers to pursuit of LRT among African American patients and their families. Study Phase I involved the evidence-based development of informational materials as well as a financial intervention to enhance African American patients' and families' proficiency in shared decision-making regarding LRT. In Study Phase 2, we are currently conducting a randomized controlled trial in which patients with new-onset ESRD receive 1) usual dialysis care by their nephrologists, 2) the informational intervention (educational video and handbook), or 3) the informational intervention in addition to the option of participating in a live kidney donor financial assistance program. The primary outcome of the randomized controlled trial will include patients' self-reported rates of consideration of LRT (including family discussions of LRT, patient-physician discussions of LRT, and identification of a LRT donor). DISCUSSION: Results from the PREPARED study will provide needed evidence on ways to enhance the decision to pursue LRT among African American patients with ESRD.

Mental hoop diaries: emotional memories of a college basketball game in rival fans.

The rivalry between the men's basketball teams of Duke University and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill (UNC) is one of the most storied traditions in college sports. A subculture of students at each university form social bonds with fellow fans, develop expertise in college basketball rules, team statistics, and individual players, and self-identify as a member of a fan group. The present study capitalized on the high personal investment of these fans and the strong affective tenor of a Duke-UNC basketball game to examine the neural correlates of emotional memory retrieval for a complex sporting event. Male fans watched a competitive, archived game in a social setting. During a subsequent functional magnetic resonance imaging session, participants viewed video clips depicting individual plays of the game that ended with the ball being released toward the basket. For each play, participants recalled whether or not the shot went into the basket. Hemodynamic signal changes time locked to correct memory decisions were analyzed as a function of emotional intensity and valence, according to the fan's perspective. Results showed intensity-modulated retrieval activity in midline cortical structures, sensorimotor cortex, the striatum, and the medial temporal lobe, including the amygdala. Positively valent memories specifically recruited processing in dorsal frontoparietal regions, and additional activity in the insula and medial temporal lobe for positively valent shots recalled with high confidence. This novel paradigm reveals how brain regions implicated in emotion, memory retrieval, visuomotor imagery, and social cognition contribute to the recollection of specific plays in the mind of a sports fan.

Encouraging clean energy investment in developing countries: what role for aid?

A large portion of foreign assistance for climate change mitigation in developing countries is directed to clean energy facilities. To support international mitigation goals, however, donors must make investments that have effects beyond individual facilities. They must reduce barriers to private-sector investment by generating information for developers, improving relevant infrastructure, or changing policies. We examine whether donor agencies target financing for commercial-scale wind and solar facilities to countries where private investment in clean energy is limited and whether donor investments lead to more private investments. On average, we find no positive evidence for these patterns of targeting and impact. Coupled with model results that show feed-in tariffs increase private investment, we argue that donor agencies should reallocate resources to improve policies that promote private investment in developing countries, rather than finance individual clean energy facilities.

Using Behavioral Insights For a Better Understanding of Economic Decisions (Regarding Savings, Inequality and Dishonesty)

This dissertation consists of three essays on behavioral economics, with a general aim of enriching our understanding of economic decisions using behavioral insights and experimental methodology. Each essay takes on one particular topic with this general aim.

The first chapter studies savings behavior of the poor. In this project, partnering with a savings product provider in Kenya, we tested the extent to which behavioral interventions and financial incentives can increase the saving rate of individuals with low and irregular income. Our experiment lasted for six months and included a total of twelve conditions. The control condition received weekly reminders and balance reporting via text messages. The treatment conditions received in addition one of the following interventions: (1) reminder text messages framed as if they came from the participant’s kid (2) a golden colored coin with numbers for each week of the trial, on which participants were asked to keep track of their weekly deposits (3) a match of weekly savings: The match was either 10% or 20% up to a certain amount per week. The match was either deposited at the end of each week or the highest possible match was deposited at the start of each week and was adjusted at the end. Among these interventions, by far the most effective was the coin: Those in the coin condition saved on average the highest amount and more than twice as those in the control condition. We hypothesize that being a tangible track-keeping object; the coin made subjects remember to save more often. Our results support the line of literature suggesting that saving decisions involve psychological aspects and that policy makers and product designers should take these influences into account.

The second chapter is related to views towards inequality. In this project, we investigate how the perceived fairness of income distributions depends on the beliefs about the process that generated the inequality. Specifically, we examine how two crucial features of this process affect fairness views: (1) Procedural justice - equal treatment of all, (2) Agency - one's ability to determine his/her income. We do this in a lab experiment by varying the equality of opportunity (procedural justice), and one's ability to make choices, which consequently influence subjects’ ability to influence their income (agency). We then elicit ex-post redistribution decisions of the earnings as a function of these two elements. Our results suggest both agency and procedural justice matter for fairness. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Highlighting the importance of agency, we find that inequality resulting from risk is considered to be fair only when risk is chosen freely; (2) Highlighting the importance of procedural justice, we find that introducing inequality of opportunity significantly increases redistribution, however the share of subjects redistributing none remain close to the share of subjects redistributing fully revealing an underlying heterogeneity in the population about how fairness views should account for inequality of opportunity.

The third chapter is on morality. In this project, we study whether religious rituals act as an internal reminder for basic moral principles and thus affect moral judgments. To this end, we conducted two survey experiments in Turkey and Israel to specifically test the effect of Ramadan and Yom Kippur. The results from the Turkish sample how that Ramadan has a significant effect on moral judgments to some extent for those who report to believe in God. Those who believe in God judged the moral acceptability of ten out of sixty one actions significantly differently in Ramadan, whereas those who reported not to believe in God significantly changed their judgments only for one action in Ramadan. Our results extends the hypothesis established by lab experiments that religious reminders have a significant effect on morality, by testing it in the field in the natural environment of religious rituals.

This thesis is part of a broader collaborative research agenda with both colleagues and advisors. The programming, analyses, and writing, as well as any errors in this work, are my own.