On the importance function in splitting simulation

The splitting method is a simulation technique for the estimation of very small probabilities. In this technique, the sample paths are split into multiple copies, at various stages in the simulation. Of vital importance to the efficiency of the method is the Importance Function (IF). This function governs the placement of the thresholds or surfaces at which the paths are split. We derive a characterisation of the optimal IF and show that for multi-dimensional models the natural choice for the IF is usually not optimal. We also show how nearly optimal splitting surfaces can be derived or simulated using reverse time analysis. Our numerical experiments illustrate that by using the optimal IF, one can obtain a significant improvement in simulation efficiency.

Low intraspecific variation in the rRNA internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) of the Australian paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus

Ixodes holocyclus has a narrow, discontinuous distribution along the east coast of Australia. We studied ticks from 17 localities throughout the geographic range of this tick. The ITS2 of I. holocyclus is 793 bp long. We found nucleotide variation at eight of the 588 nucleotide positions (1.4%) that were compared for all ticks. There were eight different nucleotide sequences. Most sequences were not restricted to a particular geographic region. However, sequences F, G and H, which had an adenine at position 197, were found only in the far north of Queensland - all other ticks had a guanine at this position. The low level of intraspecific variation in this tick (0.7%) contrasts with the sequence divergence between L holocyclus and its close relative, I. cornuatus (13.1 %). These data indicate that L holocyclus does not contain cryptic species despite possible geographic isolation of some populations. We conclude that variation in the ITS2 is likely to be informative about the phylogeny of the group.

Investigation of electrical conductivity as a function of dopant-ion radius in the systems Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M=Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Er, Yb, Sc)

Electrical conductivity versus dopant ionic radius studies in zirconia- and ceria-based, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) electrolyte systems have shown that oxygen-ion conductivity is highest when the host and dopant ions are similar in size [J. Am. Ceram. Soc. 48 (1965) 286; Solid State Ionics 37 (1989) 67; Solid State Ionics 5 (1981) 547]. Under these conditions, it is thought that the conduction paths within the crystal lattice become less distorted [Solid State Ionics 8 (1983) 201]. In this study, binary ZrO2-M2O3 unit cells were expanded, via the partial substitution of Ce+4 for Zr+4 into the lattice, in an attempt to identify new, ternary, zirconia/ceria-based electrolyte systems with enhanced electrical conductivity. The compositions Zr0.75Ce0.08M0.17O1.92 (M = Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Ho, Y, Yb, Sc) were prepared using traditional solid state techniques. Bulk phase characterisation and precise lattice parameter measurements were performed with X-ray diffraction techniques. Four-probe DC conductivity measurements between 400 and 900 degreesC showed that the dopant-ion radius influenced electrical conductivity. The conductivity versus dopant-ion radius trends previously observed in zirconia-based, binary systems are clearly apparent in the ternary systems investigated in this study. The addition of ceria was found to have a negative influence on the electrical conductivity over the temperature range 400-900 degreesC. It is suggested that distortion of the oxygen-ion conduction path by the presence of the larger M+3 and Ce+4 species (relative to Zr+4) is the reason for the decreasing electrical conductivity as a function of increasing dopant size and ceria addition, respectively. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of malocclusion and orthognathic reconstruction surgery on resonance and articulatory function: an examination of variability in five cases

Articulatory patterns and nasal resonance were assessed before and 6 months after orthognathic reconstruction surgery in five patients with dentofacial deformities. Perceptual and physiological assessments showed disorders of nasality and articulatory function preoperatively, two patients being hyponasal, and one hypernasal. Four patients had mild articulatory deficits, and four had reduced maximal lip or tongue pressures. Operation resulted in different patterns of change. Nasality deteriorated in three patients and articulatory precision and intelligibility improved in only one patient and showed no change in the other four. Operation improved interlabial pressures in three patients, while its impact on tongue pressures varied, being improved in one case, deteriorating in one, and remaining unchanged in the other three. The variability in the results highlights the need for routine assessment of speech and resonance before and after orthognathic reconstruction. (C) 2002 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pro re nata medication for psychoses: an audit of practice in two metropolitan hospitals

Objective: To examine the use of pro re nata (PRN) (as needed) medication in hospitalized patients with psychotic disorders. Methods: Retrospective chart reviews were conducted at two large public psychiatry units situated in inner city general hospitals. Pro re nata medication prescription, administration and outcomes were examined during inpatient episodes of care for 184 consecutive admissions of patients diagnosed with a psychotic disorder. Patient demographics, diagnoses, and regularly prescribed medication were also recorded. All admissions were drawn from a three-month period from December 1998-February 1999. Results: The most prevalent diagnoses were schizophrenia related disorders (n = 111) and mania (n = 34). Substance use disorders (n = 49) were the most common comorbid dis-orders. Pro re nata medication was administered during the acute phase of 82% of admissions. Drugs prescribed Pro re nata were mostly typical antipsychotics, benzodiazepines and/or anti-cholinergics. Coprescription of typical antipsychotics PRN with regularly scheduled atypical antipsychotics was common (64%). Pro re nata medications accounted for 31% of the total antipsychotic dose and 28% of the total anxiolytic dose administered during acute treatment. Higher daily doses of PRN medication were given to manic patients, males, younger patients and those with substance use disorders. Pro re nata prescriptions usually specified a maximum daily dose (87%) but rarely gave indications for use (6%). Adminis-tration records frequently lacked a specified reason for use (48%) or a notation of outcome (64%). Unit staff noted medication-related morbidity in 37% of patients receiving PRN medication, compared to 3% of patients receiving only regularly scheduled medication. Extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS) were most frequently associated with administration of PRN haloperidol (Relative Risk vs other PRN medications = 5.61, 95% CI = 2.36-13.73). Conclusions: Pro re nata medications comprised a significant part of the treatment which psychotic patients received. The common practice of coprescribing PRN typical antipsychotics with scheduled atypical antipsychotics is potentially problematical since administration of PRN medication is associated with significant medication related morbidity. Preferential use of benzodiazepines as PRN agents may minimize this morbidity and foster subsequent compliance with regularly prescribed antipsychotics.

Standardised audit of hip fractures in Europe

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the outcomes of our patients admitted with hip fractures, and to benchmark these results with other hospitals, initially in Europe and subsequently in Australia. The Standardised Audit of Hip Fractures in Europe (SAHFE) questionnaires was used as the data gathering instrument. The participants were all patients admitted to Redcliffe Hospital with a fractured neck of femur prior to surgery. This paper reports the results of the first 70 consecutive patients admitted to Redcliffe Hospital with a fractured neck of femur from November 1st 2000. The main outcome measures were mobility, independence, residence prior to fracture; type of fracture and surgical repair; and time to surgery, survival rates and discharge destination. Results: 43 patients were admitted from home, but only 13 returned home directly from the orthopaedic ward. It is hoped that most of the 26 transferred to the rehabilitation ward will ultimately return home. 7 patients died, these were aged 82 to 102, and all had premorbid disease. Delays in surgery were apparent for 13 patients, mainly due to administrative problems. Conclusions: We support the recommendation in the Fifteenth Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network Publication on the management of hip fractures, that all units treating this condition should enter an audit to evaluate their management. (author abstract)

Vitamin B12 stalls the 80 S ribosomal complex on the hepatitis C internal ribosome entry site

The effect of cyanocobalamin (CNCbl, vitamin 1312) on hepatitis C virus internal ribosome entry site (HCV IRES)-dependent initiation of translation was studied by ribosomal toeprinting and sucrose gradient centrifugation analysis. These results suggested that CNCbl did not inhibit HCV IRES-dependent translation by a competitive binding mechanism. CNCbl allowed 80 S elongation complex formation on the mRNA, but stalled the initiation at that point, effectively trapping the 80 S ribosomal complexes on the HCV TRES. CNCbl had no effect on cap-dependent mRNA, consistent with the known mRNA specificity of this translational inhibitor. To help elucidate the mechanism, comparative data were collected for the well-characterised translation inhibitors cycloheximide and 5'-guanylyl-imidophosphate, Although CNCbl stalled HCV IRES-dependent translation at approximately the same step in initiation as cycloheximide, the mechanisms of these two inhibitors are distinct. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Debiasing the outcome effect: The role of instructions in an audit litigation setting

The outcome effect occurs where an evaluator, who has knowledge of the outcome of a judge's decision , assesses the quality of the judgment of that decision maker. If the evaluator has knowledge of a negative outcome, then that knowledge negatively influences his or her assessment of the ex ante judgment. For instance, jurors in a lawsuit brought against an auditor for alleged negligence are informed of an undetected fraud, even though an unqualified opinion was issued. This paper reports the results of an experiment in an applied audit judgment setting that examined methods of mitigating the outcome effect by means of instructions. The results showed that simply instructing or warning the evaluator about the potential biasing effects of outcome information was only weakly effective. However, instructions that stressed either (1) the cognitive non-normativeness of the outcome effect or (2) the seriousness and gravity of the evaluation ameliorated the effect significantly. From a theoretical perspective, the results suggest that there may both motivational and cognitive components to the outcome effect. In all, the findings suggest awareness of the outcome effect and use of relatively nonintrusive instructions to evaluators may effectively counteract the potential for the outcome bias.

Cross-national comparison of internal migration: issues and measures

Our objectives are to identify the issues that researchers encounter when measuring internal migration in different countries and to propose key indicators that analysts can use to compare internal migration at the 'national' level. We establish the benefits to be gained by a rigorous approach to cross-national comparisons of internal migration and discuss issues that affect such comparisons. We then distinguish four dimensions of internal migration on which countries can be compared and, for each dimension, identify a series of summary measures. We illustrate the issues and measures proposed by comparing migration in Australia and Great Britain.

Determinants of tissue Doppler measures of regional diastolic function during dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Diastolic dysfunction induced by ischemia may alter transmitral blood flow, but this reflects global ventricular function, and pseudonormalization may occur with increased preload. Tissue Doppler may assess regional diastolic function and is relatively load-independent, but limited data exist regarding its application to stress testing. We sought to examine the stress response of regional diastolic parameters to dobutomine echocardiography (DbE). Methods Sixty-three patients underwent study with DbE: 20 with low probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 43 with CAD who underwent angiography. A standard DbE protocol was used, and segments were categorized as ischemic, scar, or normal. Color tissue Doppler was acquired at baseline and peak stress, and waveforms in the basal and mid segments were used to measure early filling (Em), late filling (Am), and E deceleration time. Significant CAD was defined by stenoses >50% vessel diameter. Results Diastolic parameters had limited feasibility because of merging of Em and Am waves at high heart rates and limited reproducibility. Nonetheless, compared with normal segments, segments subtended with significant stenoses showed a lower Em velocity at rest (6.2 +/- 2.6 cm/s vs 4.8 +/- 2.2 cm/s, P < .0001) and peak (7.5 +/- 4.2 cm/s vs 5.1 +/- 3.6 cm/s, P < .0001), Abnormal segments also showed a shorter E deceleration time (51 +/- 27 ms vs 41 +/- 27 ms, P = .0001) at base and peak. No changes were documented in Am. The same pattern was seen with segments identified as ischemic with wall motion score. However, in the absence of ischemia, segments of patients with left ventricular hypertrophy showed a lower Em velocity, with blunted Em responses to stress. Conclusion Regional diastolic function is sensitive to ischemia. However, a number of practical limitations limit the applicability of diastolic parameters for the quantification of stress echocardiography.

A monolithic smoothing-gap algorithm for contact-impact based on the signed distance function

A new algorithm has been developed for smoothing the surfaces in finite element formulations of contact-impact. A key feature of this method is that the smoothing is done implicitly by constructing smooth signed distance functions for the bodies. These functions are then employed for the computation of the gap and other variables needed for implementation of contact-impact. The smoothed signed distance functions are constructed by a moving least-squares approximation with a polynomial basis. Results show that when nodes are placed on a surface, the surface can be reproduced with an error of about one per cent or less with either a quadratic or a linear basis. With a quadratic basis, the method exactly reproduces a circle or a sphere even for coarse meshes. Results are presented for contact problems involving the contact of circular bodies. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Thiazolidinediones and type 2 diabetes: new drugs for an old disease

Thiazolidinediones are a new class of drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, and act by improving insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue, liver and skeletal muscle. Rosiglitazone and pioglitazone are registered for use in monotherapy, and in combination with sulfonylureas and metformin. Pioglitazone is also licensed for use in combination with insulin. There is level II evidence that in patients with inadequate glycaemic control both drugs reduce the level of HbA(1c) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) when used as monotherapy and in combination with sulfonylurea or metformin or insulin; and both drugs increase levels of HDL and LDL and lower free fatty acid levels, but only pioglitazone significantly lowers triglyceride levels. Both drugs lower fasting insulin and C-peptide levels. In monotherapy, they may be slightly less potent at reducing the level of HbA(1c) than sulfonylureas or metformin. The maximal effect of these agents may not be seen for 6-14 weeks after commencement. Both drugs are well tolerated but liver function must be checked at baseline every second month for the first year, and periodically thereafter. The drugs are currently contraindicated in patients with moderate to severe liver dysfunction and alanine aminotransferase levels more than 2.5 times normal, New York Heart Association III-IV cardiac status, pregnancy, lactation and in children. The main side effects include weight gain, oedema, and mild dilutional anaemia.