A restatement of the welafare costs of inflation. The wast of scarce resources in the manufacturing , banking and household sectors

Lucas (2000) estimates that the US welfare costs of inflation are around 1% of GDP. This measurement is consistent with a speci…c distorting channel in terms of the Bailey triangle under the demand for monetary base schedule (outside money): the displacement of resources from the production of consumption goods to the household transaction time à la Baumol. Here, we consider also several new types of distortions in the manufacturing and banking industries. Our new evidences show that both banks and firms demand special occupational employments to avoid the inflation tax. We de…ne the concept of ”the foat labor”: The occupational employments that are aflected by the in‡ation rates. More administrative workers are hired relatively to the bluecollar workers for producing consumption goods. This new phenomenon makes the manufacturing industry more roundabout. To take into account this new stylized fact and others, we redo at same time both ”The model 5: A Banking Sector -2” formulated by Lucas (1993) and ”The Competitive Banking System” proposed by Yoshino (1993). This modelling allows us to characterize better the new types of misallocations. We …nd that the maximum value of the resources wasted by the US economy happened in the years 1980-81, after the 2nd oil shock. In these years, we estimate the excess resources that are allocated for every speci…c distorting channel: i) The US commercial banks spent additional resources of around 2% of GDP; ii) For the purpose of the firm foating time were used between 2.4% and 4.1% of GDP); and iii) For the household transaction time were allocated between 3.1% and 4.5 % of GDP. The Bailey triangle under the demand for the monetary base schedule represented around 1% of GDP, which is consistent with Lucas (2000). We estimate that the US total welfare costs of in‡ation were around 10% of GDP in terms of the consumption goods foregone. The big di¤erence between our results and Lucas (2000) are mainly due to the Harberger triangle in the market for loans (inside money) which makes part of the household transaction time, of the …rm ‡oat labor and of the distortion in the banking industry. This triangle arises due to the widening interest rates spread in the presence of a distorting inflation tax and under a fractionally reserve system. The Harberger triangle can represent 80% of the total welfare costs of inflation while the remaining percentage is split almost equally between the Bailey triangle and the resources used for the bank services. Finally, we formulate several theorems in terms of the optimal nonneutral monetary policy so as to compare with the classical monetary theory.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms’ response to inflation shocks

This paper proposes a test for distinguishing between time-dependent and state-dependent pricing based on whether the timing of pricing changes is affected by realized or expeted inflation. Using Brazilian data and exploring a large discrepancy between realized and expected inflation in 2002-3, we obtain a strong relation between expected inflation and duration of price spells, but little effect of inflation shocks on the frequency of price adjustment. The results thus support models with timedependent pricing, where the timing for following changes is optimally chosen whenever firms adjust prices

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

Welfare cost of inflation considering adoption decisions and interest-bearing deposits

Attanasio et al. (JPE, 2002) have used microeconomic data on households to provide new estimates of the welfare costs of infiation using Bailey's unidimensional welfare measure as a basis for their calculations. Such a measure does not properly take into consideration lhe fact that the majority of households in their sample (58.7 percent) holds not only bank deposits and currency, but also a second type of interest-bearing assct. This work devises alternative formulas which account for the existence of bank deposits and a sccond interest-bearing asset in the economy, as well as for adoption decisions regarding alternative financiai technologies.

Schistosoma mansoni: Evaluation of an RNAi-based treatment targeting HGPRTase gene

Hypoxanthine-guanine phosphoribosyltransferase (HGPRTase) is an essential gene of the parasite Schistosoma mansoni and it is well conserved in its hosts (mouse and human) at the protein but not at the RNA level. This feature prompted us to assess RNA interference (RNAi) to combat schistosomiasis. Small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) were Produced against HGPRTase, injected in infected mice and the number of worms was counted six days after injection. The total number of parasites was reduced by approximately 27% after treatment. RT-PCR analyzes showed a significant reduction in parasite target mRNA but not in host's homologue. The use of low doses of molecules did not oversaturate si- or miRNA pathways as mice survival rates were not affected by siRNAs. This is the first successful in vivo demonstration of a RNAi-based treatment against schistosomiasis. We believe that improvements in molecule delivery and an increase on siRNA dose could rapidly eliminate parasite. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subcellular localization of proteins labeled with GFP in Xanthomonas citri ssp citri: targeting the division septum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure constraints on a simple quintessential inflation model

We derive constraints on a simple quintessential inflation model, based on a spontaneously broken Phi(4) theory, imposed by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe three-year data (WMAP3) and by galaxy clustering results from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We find that the scale of symmetry breaking must be larger than about 3 Planck masses in order for inflation to generate acceptable values of the scalar spectral index and of the tensor-to-scalar ratio. We also show that the resulting quintessence equation of state can evolve rapidly at recent times and hence can potentially be distinguished from a simple cosmological constant in this parameter regime.

Towards brane-antibrane inflation in type IIA: the holographic MQCD mode

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A simple model for quintessential inflation

We propose a simple toy model for quintessential inflation where a complex scalar field described by a Lagrangian with a U(1)(PQ) symmetry spontaneously broken at a high energy scale and explicitly broken by instanton effects at a much lower energy can account for both the early inflationary phase and the recent accelerated expansion of the Universe. The real part of the complex field plays the role of the in flaton whereas the imaginary part, the 'axion', is the quintessence field.

Real-time PCR assay targeting the actin gene for the detection of Cryptosporidium parvum in calf fecal samples

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Inflation and relative prices: the Brazilian experience, 1970/79.

Based on behaviour of output growth and industrial sector prices, it tries to define the several stages comprising the cyclic trends of the Brazilian economy. Analyzes the behaviour of inflation rates and of relative prices, and shows that there is a positive association between the measures of inflation rates and of their variables as well as between both these measures and dispersion of relative price changes. Demonstrates the assymetric behaviour of relative price changes and differentiated behaviour in relative prices of farm produce and industrial products. -from Authors

Targeting Plasmodium ligands on mosquito salivary glands and midgut with a phage display peptide library

Despite vast efforts and expenditures in the past few decades, malaria continues to kill millions of persons every year, and new approaches for disease control are urgently needed. To complete its life cycle in the mosquito, Plasmodium, the causative agent of malaria, has to traverse the epithelia of the midgut and salivary glands. Although strong circumstantial evidence indicates that parasite interactions with the two organs are specific, hardly any information is available about the interacting molecules. By use of a phage display library, we identified a 12-aa peptide-salivary gland and midgut peptide 1 (SM1)-that binds to the distal lobes of the salivary gland and to the luminal side of the midgut epithelium, but not to the midgut surface facing the hemolymph or to ovaries. The coincidence of the tissues with which parasites and the SM1 peptide interact suggested that the parasite and peptide recognize the same surface ligand. In support of this hypothesis, the SM1 peptide strongly inhibited Plasmodium invasion of salivary gland and midgut epithelia. These experiments suggest a new strategy for the genetic manipulation of mosquito vectorial capacity.

Preheating in quintessential inflation

We perform a numerical study of the preheating mechanism of particle production in models of quintessential inflation and compare it with the usual gravitational production mechanism. We find that even for a very small coupling between the inflaton field and a massless scalar field, g ≳ 10 -6, preheating dominates over gravitational particle production. Reheating temperatures in the range 10 4 ≲ T rh ≲ 10 15 GeV can be easily obtained. © 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Quintessential inflation and non-oscillatory reheating model

A numerical study of the non-oscillatory reheating mechanism in a quintessential inflation context shows that high reheating temperature can be achieved compared with the usual reheating mechanism in which particles are produced gravitationally. We find that even for a very small coupling between the inflaton field and a massless scalar field, the non-oscillatory reheating production of particles dominates over the gravitational production mechanism. © 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.