Conceptual problem for noncommutative inflation and the new approach for nonrelativistic inflationary equation of state

In a previous paper, we connected the phenomenological noncommutative inflation of Alexander, Brandenberger and Magueijo [ Phys. Rev. D 67 081301 (2003)] and Koh and Brandenberger [ J. Cosmol. Astropart Phys. 2007 21 ()] with the formal representation theory of groups and algebras and analyzed minimal conditions that the deformed dispersion relation should satisfy in order to lead to a successful inflation. In that paper, we showed that elementary tools of algebra allow a group-like procedure in which even Hopf algebras (roughly the symmetries of noncommutative spaces) could lead to the equation of state of inflationary radiation. Nevertheless, in this paper, we show that there exists a conceptual problem with the kind of representation that leads to the fundamental equations of the model. The problem comes from an incompatibility between one of the minimal conditions for successful inflation (the momentum of individual photons being bounded from above) and the Fock-space structure of the representation which leads to the fundamental inflationary equations of state. We show that the Fock structure, although mathematically allowed, would lead to problems with the overall consistency of physics, like leading to a problematic scattering theory, for example. We suggest replacing the Fock space by one of two possible structures that we propose. One of them relates to the general theory of Hopf algebras (here explained at an elementary level) while the other is based on a representation theorem of von Neumann algebras (a generalization of the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients), a proposal already suggested by us to take into account interactions in the inflationary equation of state.

Bias and learning in temporal binding: intervals between actions and outcomes are compressed by prior bias

It has consistently been shown that agents judge the intervals between their actions and outcomes as compressed in time, an effect named intentional binding. In the present work, we investigated whether this effect is result of prior bias volunteers have about the timing of the consequences of their actions, or if it is due to learning that occurs during the experimental session. Volunteers made temporal estimates of the interval between their action and target onset (Action conditions), or between two events (No-Action conditions). Our results show that temporal estimates become shorter throughout each experimental block in both conditions. Moreover, we found that observers judged intervals between action and outcomes as shorter even in very early trials of each block. To quantify the decrease of temporal judgments in experimental blocks, exponential functions were fitted to participants’ temporal judgments. The fitted parameters suggest that observers had different prior biases as to intervals between events in which action was involved. These findings suggest that prior bias might play a more important role in this effect than calibration-type learning processes.

From inflation to dark energy through a dynamical Λ: an attempt at alleviating fundamental cosmic puzzles

After decades of successful hot big-bang paradigm, cosmology still lacks a framework in which the early inflationary phase of the universe smoothly matches the radiation epoch and evolves to the present “quasi” de Sitter spacetime. No less intriguing is that the current value of the effective vacuum energy density is vastly smaller than the value that triggered inflation. In this paper, we propose a new class of cosmologies capable of overcoming, or highly alleviating, some of these acute cosmic puzzles. Powered by a decaying vacuum energy density, the spacetime emerges from a pure nonsingular de Sitter vacuum stage, “gracefully” exits from inflation to a radiation phase followed by dark matter and vacuum regimes, and, finally, evolves to a late-time de Sitter phase.

A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Jarrow-Yildirim model for inflation: theory and applications

This thesis deals with inflation theory, focussing on the model of Jarrow & Yildirim, which is nowadays used when pricing inflation derivatives. After recalling main results about short and forward interest rate models, the dynamics of the main components of the market are derived. Then the most important inflation-indexed derivatives are explained (zero coupon swap, year-on-year, cap and floor), and their pricing proceeding is shown step by step. Calibration is explained and performed with a common method and an heuristic and non standard one. The model is enriched with credit risk, too, which allows to take into account the possibility of bankrupt of the counterparty of a contract. In this context, the general method of pricing is derived, with the introduction of defaultable zero-coupon bonds, and the Monte Carlo method is treated in detailed and used to price a concrete example of contract. Appendixes: A: martingale measures, Girsanov's theorem and the change of numeraire. B: some aspects of the theory of Stochastic Differential Equations; in particular, the solution for linear EDSs, and the Feynman-Kac Theorem, which shows the connection between EDSs and Partial Differential Equations. C: some useful results about normal distribution.

Local home bias: Theory and new empirical evidence from Italy

This thesis examines the literature on local home bias, i.e. investor preference towards geographically nearby stocks, and investigates the role of firm’s visibility, profitability, and opacity in explaining such behavior. While firm’s visibility is expected to proxy for the behavioral root originating such a preference, firm’s profitability and opacity are expected to capture the informational one. I find that less visible, and more profitable and opaque firms, conditionally to the demand, benefit from being headquartered in regions characterized by a scarcity of listed firms (local supply of stocks). Specifically, research estimates suggest that firms headquartered in regions with a poor supply of stocks would be worth i) 11 percent more if non-visible, non-profitable and non-opaque; ii) 16 percent more if profitable; and iii) 28 percent more if both profitable and opaque. Overall, as these features are able to explain most, albeit not all, of the local home bias effect, I reasonably argue and then assess that most of the preference for local is determined by a successful attempt to exploit local information advantage (60 percent), while the rest is determined by a mere (irrational) feeling of familiarity with the local firm (40 percent). Several and significant methodological, theoretical, and practical implications come out.

Thermal inflation and the cosmological moduli problem

Ho studiato la possibilità di soluzione per il problema cosmologico dei moduli (CMP) presente a causa della compattificazione delle dimensioni extra tramite un periodo di inflazione a basse energie (Thermal Inflation). L'elaborato consta di cinque capitoli. Il primo introduce il lettore alla problematica dei moduli partendo dalla teoria Kaluza-Klein. Il secondo riguarda interamente il CMP e altri problemi cosmologici associati ai moduli. Nel terzo viene descritta la thermal inflation e le condizioni di funzionamento. Nel quarto capitolo viene preso in esame il problema di stabilizzazione dei moduli nella teoria di stringa tipo IIB: vengono descritti sia il meccanismo KKTL che il LVS. L'ultimo capitolo consiste nel calcolo della diluizione dei moduli, enunciata prima in un contesto generale e infine applicata al LVS, tramite la thermal inflation. Viene altresì presa in esame la possibilità di due epoche di thermal inflation, al fine di ottenere una diluizione più efficiente dei moduli. In LVS sono presenti due moduli, differenti per massa e vita media. Il più leggero è soggetto al CMP e si trova che, anche dopo due periodi di thermal inflation vi è ancora un numero eccessivo di tali campi, in quanto se da un lato la thermal inflation ne diliusca la densità iniziale, dall'altro ne causa una forte riproduzione, dovuta essenzialmente alle caratteristiche del modulo

'Alternate-goal bias' in antisaccades and the influence of expectation

Saccadic performance depends on the requirements of the current trial, but also may be influenced by other trials in the same experiment. This effect of trial context has been investigated most for saccadic error rate and reaction time but seldom for the positional accuracy of saccadic landing points. We investigated whether the direction of saccades towards one goal is affected by the location of a second goal used in other trials in the same experimental block. In our first experiment, landing points ('endpoints') of antisaccades but not prosaccades were shifted towards the location of the alternate goal. This spatial bias decreased with increasing angular separation between the current and alternative goals. In a second experiment, we explored whether expectancy about the goal location was responsible for the biasing of the saccadic endpoint. For this, we used a condition where the saccadic goal randomly changed from one trial to the next between locations on, above or below the horizontal meridian. We modulated the prior probability of the alternate-goal location by showing cues prior to stimulus onset. The results showed that expectation about the possible positions of the saccadic goal is sufficient to bias saccadic endpoints and can account for at least part of this phenomenon of 'alternate-goal bias'.

Assessment of publication bias in dental specialty journals

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of publication bias (acceptance of articles indicating statistically significant results). METHODS: The journals possessing the highest impact factor (2008 data) in each dental specialty were included in the study. The content of the 6 most recent issues of each journal was hand searched and research articles were classified into 4 type categories: cross-sectional, case-control, cohort, and interventional (nonrandomized clinical trials and randomized controlled trials). In total, 396 articles were included in the analysis. Descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the association between article-reported statistical significance (dependent variable) and journal impact factor and article study type subject area (independent variables). RESULTS: A statistically significant acceptance rate of positive result was found, ranging from 75% to 90%, whereas the value of impact factor was not related to publication bias among leading dental journals. Compared with other research designs, clinical intervention studies (randomized or nonrandomized) presented the highest percentage of nonsignificant findings (20%); RCTs represented 6% of the examined investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the Journal of Clinical Periodontology, all other subspecialty journals, except the Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, showed significantly decreased odds of publishing an RCT, which ranged from 60% to 93% (P < .05).

Avoidance and inhibition do not predict nonrespondent bias among patients with inflammatory bowel disease

It has been suggested that participant withdrawal from studies can bias estimates. However, this is only possible when withdrawers and nonwithdrawers differ in an important way. We tested the hypothesis that withdrawers are more likely than nonwithdrawers to be avoidant and negatively affected.

Vertical bias in neglect: A question of time?

Neglect is defined as the failure to attend and to orient to the contralesional side of space. A horizontal bias towards the right visual field is a classical finding in patients who suffered from a right-hemispheric stroke. The vertical dimension of spatial attention orienting has only sparsely been investigated so far. The aim of this study was to investigate the specificity of this vertical bias by means of a search task, which taps a more pronounced top-down attentional component. Eye movements and behavioural search performance were measured in thirteen patients with left-sided neglect after right hemispheric stroke and in thirteen age-matched controls. Concerning behavioural performance, patients found significantly less targets than healthy controls in both the upper and lower left quadrant. However, when targets were located in the lower left quadrant, patients needed more visual fixations (and therefore longer search time) to find them, suggesting a time-dependent vertical bias.

Reproducibility and day time bias correction of optoelectronic leg volumetry: a prospective cohort study

Background Leg edema is a common manifestation of various underlying pathologies. Reliable measurement tools are required to quantify edema and monitor therapeutic interventions. Aim of the present work was to investigate the reproducibility of optoelectronic leg volumetry over 3 weeks' time period and to eliminate daytime related within-individual variability. Methods Optoelectronic leg volumetry was performed in 63 hairdressers (mean age 45 ± 16 years, 85.7% female) in standing position twice within a minute for each leg and repeated after 3 weeks. Both lower leg (legBD) and whole limb (limbBF) volumetry were analysed. Reproducibility was expressed as analytical and within-individual coefficients of variance (CVA, CVW), and as intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Results A total of 492 leg volume measurements were analysed. Both legBD and limbBF volumetry were highly reproducible with CVA of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Within-individual reproducibility of legBD and limbBF volumetry over a three weeks' period was high (CVW 1.3% for both; ICC 0.99 for both). At both visits, the second measurement revealed a significantly higher volume compared to the first measurement with a mean increase of 7.3 ml ± 14.1 (0.33% ± 0.58%) for legBD and 30.1 ml ± 48.5 ml (0.52% ± 0.79%) for limbBF volume. A significant linear correlation between absolute and relative leg volume differences and the difference of exact day time of measurement between the two study visits was found (P < .001). A therefore determined time-correction formula permitted further improvement of CVW. Conclusions Leg volume changes can be reliably assessed by optoelectronic leg volumetry at a single time point and over a 3 weeks' time period. However, volumetry results are biased by orthostatic and daytime-related volume changes. The bias for day-time related volume changes can be minimized by a time-correction formula.